Consumption-based carbon emissions in a post- Kyoto regime in Kirsten S. Wiebe & Christian Lutz

Transcription

1 onsumtion-based carbon emissions in a ost- Koto regime in Kirsten S. Wiebe & hristian Lutz Gesellschaft für Wirtschaftliche Strukturforschung mbh Final WOD conference: auses and consequences of globalization Groningen, ril GWS mbh

2 nternational climate change agreement ombat climate change target reducing GHG emissions Fair burden sharing Production vs consumtion based emission accounting OED countries roduce about 45% of global emissions but are resonsible for 6% (consumtion-based) ombination of dnamic rojection model GNFORS and static MRO GRM GWS mbh

3 GNFORS: Global nterindustr Forecasting Sstem ombination of econometric statistical analsis with inut-outut analsis embedded in a macroeconomic framework overs 53 countries and two regions (OPE, RoW) Behavioural change derived b econometric estimations using ordinar least square method (OLS) Bounded rationalit of agents merfect markets Bottom-u construction Global consistenc Used as simulation rather than forecasting tool Based on international data (OED, MF, E, ) 3 GWS mbh

4 GNFORS structure Bilateral multisectoral trade model (5 goods + services) Exort demand mort rices nut-outut Models - final demand - intermediate demand - rimar inuts - labour demand - caital demand - rices, unit costs - wages Macro Models - balance of aments - SN aggregates - labour market (aggregated) mort demand Exort rices Bilateral multisectoral trade model (5 goods + services) Exorts of good i b countr k are exlained b the share of countr k in the imorts of good i in all other countries mort rices of good i are exlained b the weighted average of exort rices of good i of all other countries Endogenous exlanation of economic develoment and its linkage with the environment 4 GWS mbh

5 GRM: Global Resource ccounting Model Multi-regional inut-outut model 53 countries and regions 48 sectors er countr/region Years covered: 995 to 5 + rojected data for st version (7/8) (etre: resource roductivit and environmental tax reform in Euroe, nglo-german Foundation) 8 raw material categories Linked single-region O models nd version (9/) (Die Klimabilanz des österreichischen ußenhandels, Österreichischer Energie- und Klimafonds) O emissions True multi-regional O model 3rd version () ombining GRM and GNFORS alculation of consumtion-based emissions in for different scenarios of the global 3E model GNFORS 5 GWS mbh

6 GWS mbh 6 MRO with extension to emission/resource intensities ommon inut-outut notation nterindustr requirements matrix Final demand vector dentit matrix Vector of emission/resource intensities, e Matrices E i for each countr i consisting of e i Pollution matrix P consisting of vectors ij E P ) ( = = E E E O intensit coefficients O emissions associated with ustrian roduction to satisf ustrian demand O emissions on ustria s exorts O emissions on ustrian imorts Size of matrices (64 55) (64 64) (64 64) (64 55) Domestic FD matrices in USD Domestic O multilier matrices morted O multilier matrices b exorting countr x ) ( = OED STN inut-outut & bilateral trade data E energ balances & emission data

7 ombining GRM and GNFORS Based on same historical database GNFORS calculates rojections (dnamic) GRM uses GNFORS results (static) urrent limitations Projection of imorted O tables ountr coverage of O tables countr models OPE ex. ndonesia RoW 7 GWS mbh

8 Scenario calculations Unilateral action of the EU: -- targets Few DM measures (at most 5%) Renewables according to national action lans Business-as-usual for all other countries Scenario oenhagen ledges (comared to 99, USN *) EU: -3% US: -4% Jaan: -5% Brazil: +% South frica: +48% Russia: -5% hina: 45% (carbon intensit comared to 5) ndia: 5% (carbon intensit comared to 5) DM u to 5% Transfers to low income countries for adatation measures increase *htt:// 8 GWS mbh

9 Results: arbon trade matrix mt O OED BRS RoW OED BRS RoW Difference (absolute) mt O OED BRS RoW OED BRS RoW mt O OED BRS RoW OED BRS RoW Difference (ercent) mt O OED BRS RoW OED -% -9% -% BRS -3% -% -5% RoW -% -% % 9 GWS mbh

10 Results: arbon imorts and exorts morts Exorts Net imorts - - EU7 US Jaan hina ndia Brazil South frica Russia OED BRS RoW -3-4 GWS mbh

11 Results: arbon trade balance Million t O EU7 US Jaan hina ndia Brazil South frica Russia OED BRS RoW Domestic P & (DD) Exorts (DX) morts (MD) Domestic Production (DD + DX) Domestic onsumtion (DD + MD) morts - Exorts Net-morts oder -exorts? E E E E E E E Domestic P & (DD) Exorts (DX) morts (MD) Domestic Production (DD + DX) Domestic onsumtion (DD + MD) morts - Exorts Net-morts oder -exorts? E E E E E E E / Domestic P & (DD),94,9,95,9,88,95,89,9,898,898,998 Exorts (DX),93,84,96,84,84,96,87,86,93,864,988 morts (MD),93,95,94,95,97,94,95,96,9,96,86 Domestic Production (DD + DX),94,89,95,88,86,96,88,89,898,887,993 Domestic onsumtion (DD + MD),94,9,94,9,89,95,9,9,93,96,973 morts - Exorts,93,4,93,77,83,97,85,8,93,85,35 Net-morts oder -exorts? E E E E E E E GWS mbh

12 Possibilities and discussion Origin and destination of embodied O emissions/ material rucksacks for 53 countries & regions and 48 sectors for climate change olic scenarios Scenarios show a relative redistribution of carbon emission towards those countries without imlemented targets Possibilities arbon leakage Resource deendenc Structural ath analsis Future research New OED tables Use of additional data for final demand mrovement exort modelling GWS mbh

13 Wiebe, K.S., Lutz,., Bruckner, M., and Giljum, S.: alculating energ-related O emissions embodied in international trade using a global inut-outut model, Economic Sstems Research, 4, doi:.8/ ,. Wiebe, K.S., Lutz,., Bruckner, M., Giljum, S. and Polzin,. ().arbon and Materials Embodied in the nternational Trade of Emerging Economies: Multiregional nut-outut ssessment of Trends between 995 and 5. Journal of ndustrial Ecolog. Forthcoming. Gesellschaft für Wirtschaftliche Strukturforschung mbh Heinrichstr Osnabrück German Phone + 49 (54) Fax + 49 (54) os.com nternet GWS mbh

14 GNFORS: Global nterindustr Forecasting Sstem Two main comonents Bilateral Trade Matrix Three dimensional trade matrix 6 goods and services, 5 exorters, 5 imorters Based on time series of international statistics (E, OED, MF, E) Economic core models Macro models (MM) for all countries nut-outut models (OM) for countries Each countr creates demand for imort goods and exort rices receives exort demand and imort rices 4 GWS mbh

15 P 4: GNFORS Länder und Daten Teilmodelle Welthandel Ländermodelle Datenquellen Globale bdeckung OED (BTD, 5 53 Staaten (> 95% des Gütergruen + world GDP) Dienstleistungen) UN OMTRDE Regionen (OPE, ROW) nut-outut und Sektoral OED O (48 Sektoren), OED STN 7 Staaten (> 8% des world GDP) Makro OED/MF s. Welthandel ountr models OPE ROW 5 GWS mbh

16 Data: Problems Data roblems nut-outut tables (OT) available for at most three ears not available for all countries Bilateral trade data (BTD) missing ears for some countries, es. before 998 substantial gas in service trade matrix Emission data not available in OT or BTD classification Material data No sectoral data Solutions nut-outut tables linear interolation examle countries Bilateral trade data structure of first available ear structure of for the ears before Emission data use of E Energ Balances. Material data use of resective O sector 6 GWS mbh

17 GWS mbh 7 Theor & Data Omitted data Sectoral outut Sectoral exort Sectoral value added No RS rocedure = E E E 55 imorting countries E emissions data E EB structure OED OT structure OED OT data and OED BTD data OED OT data 55 exorting countries Size of matrices (64 55) (64 64) (64 64) (64 55) (55 55) (55 64) alculated data as residual x ) ( ˆ = ij im ji ex = va

18 Deviation of calculated sectoral data Deviation of total outut (5) US.5% Jaan -.7% German % Highest sectoral deviations 7 Office, accounting & comuting machiner Greece /5, Luxembourg 995/ 9 Radio, television & communication equiment Luxembourg 995//5 8 GWS mbh