Periodic Review Report 2017

Transcription

1 Periodic Review Report 2017

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3 Periodic Review Report 2017 July 2017 Submitted to Government on 12 July 2017 Climate Change Advisory Council McCumiskey House Richview, Clonskeagh Road, Dublin 14, D14 YR62 Phone: ISBN: Climate Change Advisory Council 2017

4 Climate Change Advisory Council The Climate Change Advisory Council is an independent advisory body tasked with assessing and advising on how Ireland can achieve the transition to a low carbon, climate resilient and environmentally sustainable economy. The Climate Change Advisory Council was established on the 18th January 2016 under the Climate Action and Low Carbon Development Act Climate Change Advisory Council Members: Prof. John FitzGerald (Chair) Prof. Alan Barrett Prof. Gerry Boyle Laura Burke Prof. Peter Clinch Prof. Frank Convery Joseph Curtin Prof. Anna Davies Prof. Ottmar Edenhofer Jim Gannon Prof. Alan Matthews Climate Change Advisory Council Adaptation Committee At its meeting on the 6th April 2016, the Climate Change Advisory Council established an Adaptation Committee to consider matters relating to climate change adaptation. Adaptation Committee Members: Prof. John Fitzgerald (Chair) Mark Adamson Prof. Gerry Boyle Laura Burke Prof. Robert Devoy Jim Gannon Ciarán Hayes Dr Ina Kelly Eoin Moran Dr Conor Murphy Roger Street

5 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Executive Summary Introduction This is the Climate Change Advisory Council s first Periodic Review Report. As required under the legislation establishing the Council, this report assesses progress being made in meeting emissions reduction targets to 2020 and in furthering the achievement of the national transition objective. It also provides advice to government on climate change policy, in particular on the National Mitigation Plan and the National Adaptation Framework. In relation to mitigation actions the Council considers that: Ireland is unlikely to meet its 2020 targets for reducing greenhouse gas emissions by a substantial margin. This will have implications not only for 2020, but also for compliance with 2030 targets. It is urgent that effective additional policies are implemented to place the economy on an environmentally sustainable pathway to a low-carbon Ireland in While the draft National Mitigation Plan identified a range of policy options, the introduction of, and commitment to new, cost-effective emission reduction polices and measures is essential. International Climate Policy The Paris Agreement represents a major step forward in tackling global climate change. It is in Ireland s interest that the Agreement is fully implemented and that we play our part by introducing new measures to decarbonise the economy. It is also essential that Ireland engages in the implementation of the Paris Agreement and in the development of its rules and processes in order to ensure they are informed by national insights, issues and experiences. Progress Towards 2020 Targets Official greenhouse gas emission projections indicate that Ireland will fail to meet its 2020 targets by a substantial margin. Additional policies and measures, even if implemented rapidly, may not be enough to ensure that Ireland s 2020 emissions reduction target is met. However, they are essential for Ireland to meet future targets including to 2030, and to decarbonise the economy by While compliance with the 2020 target can be achieved through the purchase of emission units, this is not a cost-effective long-term solution and will not generate any co-benefits. In addition, delaying action will make the required adjustment in the period to 2030 more costly. This report was finalised before the National Mitigation Plan was published. As a result, the comments here are based on the draft National Mitigation Plan, published in March However, most of the comments will also apply to the final version of the National Mitigation Plan as published. i

6 CLIMATE CHANGE ADVISORY COUNCIL PERIODIC REVIEW REPORT 2017 Transition to a Low-Emission Economy and Society The Council reiterates its view that Ireland should aim to have no further negative impacts on the climate system by the middle of this century. The Council considers it urgent that: A target for emissions reduction to 2030 is adopted in the context of a roadmap for achievement of 80% reduction in carbon dioxide emissions by An approach to neutrality in the agriculture and land use sector by 2050 is defined and advanced. The scope and nature of the 2050 national resilience goal is determined. The pathway for low-carbon transition to 2050 should include key sectoral goals. These could include decarbonisation of electricity generation, deep retrofit of the existing building stock to near zero emission levels, and the phase out of fossil energy use in transport systems and enhanced public transport provision. While some of the these policies will require significant investment, there are likely to be co-benefits from implementation, including benefits for health. Approaches to achieving neutrality within the agriculture and land use sectors require that greenhouse gas emissions are reduced while removals are greatly enhanced. This requires actions to address emissions of key greenhouse gases from this sector and enhanced land management. The Council considers that development of a comprehensive land use strategy, with inclusion of all land uses, is essential. Ireland should be at the forefront of international efforts to determine a scientifically and environmentally robust pathway for neutrality in the agriculture and land use sector and for the global balance of emissions and removals. The National Mitigation Plan The Council considers that the National Mitigation Plan should reflect the ambition of the National Policy Position and clearly signal the direction of travel for the main sectors, with sectoral goals that are consistent with the achievement of the 2030 targets and low-carbon transition by The National Mitigation Plan should provide a transparent and coherent framework for economywide actions towards the 2030 and 2050 targets and objectives. In doing so it should identify nearterm policies, measures and actions and ensure their coherence with the long-term objectives. The National Mitigation Plan should inform development of related cross-sectoral policies such as the National Planning Framework and the review of the Capital Expenditure Plan. An effective price signal for carbon emissions is required to guide actions to meet the mitigation component of the national transition objective in the most cost-effective manner. The existing carbon pricing mechanisms have, to date, failed to deliver an adequate price signal to advance the required decarbonisation. The Council has recommended reform of the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme, including the establishment of an adequate price-floor. A clear signal from Government on the further development of the carbon tax is also required. Consistent with this approach, the subsidy for use of peat in electricity generation should be ended, while making provision for communities that may be adversely affected. The Council welcomes the announcement that the Public Expenditure Code is being revised to ii

7 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY take account of the challenge of climate change. This revision should include an appropriate trajectory for the shadow price of carbon dioxide emissions, as well as a revised approach to discounting future benefits of emissions reduction. It should address co-benefits such as air quality and health. The distributional effects of climate change policy need to be fully assessed and measures taken need to ensure a fair and equitable transition to a carbon-free economy and society. National Adaptation Framework The impacts of global climate change are projected to increase over the coming decades. The National Policy Position identifies the achievement of a climate resilient economy and society by 2050 as a key objective. The National Adaptation Framework, to be published in the coming year, should provide a structure and process to implement this objective, including criteria that can be used to identify what a climate resilient Ireland would look like in This would provide a framework for the responsible sectors to develop their own resilience goals. The National Adaptation Framework should include a national assessment of the vulnerability of critical infrastructure. It is imperative that clarity on governance and ownership of implementation is included in the National Adaptation Framework. In addition, adaptation actions should be informed and supported by authoritative information for Ireland. Conclusions There needs to be concrete commitment to new measures in the National Mitigation Plan. The Council recognises that climate change provides a unique challenge for public policy. A coordinated response from Government is essential in the future to ensure that all Departments implement appropriate policies to manage the low-carbon transition to This should be based on the National Mitigation Plan and National Adaptation Framework, together with the underlying sectoral and local plans. An integrated strategy should be developed by Government in Importantly, societal and behavioural issues and responses need to be understood and addressed to achieve transition by 2050, while co-benefits such as the effects on health and wellbeing that arise from decarbonisation, need to be fully taken into account. The planned National Dialogue on Climate Change can be a key component in addressing these issues. iii

8 CLIMATE CHANGE ADVISORY COUNCIL PERIODIC REVIEW REPORT 2017 Table of Contents 1. Introduction and Overview Statement of the Reason for Conducting the Periodic Review The First Report 2 2. Developments in International Climate Policy Background The Paris Agreement and its Goals Nationally Determined Contributions The EU 2050 Roadmap Potential Implications Ireland s Engagement with EU and International Policy 6 3. Progress on 2020 Emissions Reduction Targets EU Climate and Energy Package Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory Greenhouse Gas Emissions Projections EU Emissions Inventory and Projections Advice and Recommendations The National Transition Objective: Mitigation Background Carbon Dioxide Emissions to Sectoral Emissions of Carbon Dioxide Electricity Generation The Built Environment Transport Establishing a Pathway to Carbon Neutrality for Agriculture and Land Use Steps Towards Neutrality Agriculture and Land Use Emissions and Removals Agriculture and Land Use Diversification Challenges for Ireland National Mitigation Plan The National Transition Objective: Adaptation Global Context for Development of National Resilience National Capacity, Risk and Adaptation Progress Towards National Transition Objective 26 iv

9 7. National Adaptation Framework Conclusions 31 References 33 Appendix 1 Scientific Understanding 38 Appendix 2 Influences of Greenhouse Gases and Other Pollutants 40 Appendix 3 Key Messages from the First Report 41 Appendix 4 Carbon Pricing 44 Appendix 5 Letters to Ministers on Sectoral Actions Outlined in Draft National Mitigation Plan 49 Appendix 6 Key Messages on Adaptation from the First Report 62 Appendix 7 Letters on Draft Sectoral Adaptation Plans 63 Appendix 8 Outline of the 2050 Neutrality Challenge 70 v

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11 INTRODUCTION AND OVERVIEW 1. Introduction and Overview The Climate Action and Low Carbon Development Act established the national transition objective, of a low carbon, climate resilient and environmentally sustainable economy by It takes account of the objective of the United Nations Framework on Climate Change (UNFCCC), obligations of the State under European Union (EU) law and any related international agreement and Government policy on climate change. The transition process will be based on the National Mitigation Plan and National Adaptation Framework provided by Government in These will be revised, updated and approved every five years in order to achieve the national transition objective. 2 The Act also established the Climate Change Advisory Council. The Council s role is to provide advice to Government on climate change policy. Specific Council roles include reviewing progress on the achievement of the national transition objective and reviewing progress on meeting targets agreed at international level. The Council is also required to provide recommendations to Government on the national responses to the challenges of climate change and to provide Periodic and Annual Review Reports to Government Statement of the Reason for Conducting the Periodic Review This report fulfils the Council s legislative mandate, under Section 13 of the Climate Action and Low Carbon Development Act 2015, to produce a Periodic Review Report within 18 months of its establishment. In addition, the Council notes the entry into force of the Paris Agreement under the UNFCCC on the 4 November This constitutes a major development in international law on climate change. Aspects of the Paris Agreement are considered in this report. Under the legislation the Council was required to submit this Report to Government by 17 July, the day the National Mitigation Plan was published. As a result, the Council could not comment on the published National Mitigation Plan in this Report. Instead, the Council, at the request of the Minister, provided its views and advice on the draft National Mitigation Plan, which was published on 16 March These are included in this report along with further commentary. In line with its mandate, the Council also provides its consideration of progress in achievement of Ireland s commitments on climate change to 2020, as agreed under EU law, and on progress in relation to furthering the achievement of the national transition objective. It is expected that a draft National Adaptation Framework will be published later this year for consultation, with a final version provided to Government by the 10 December. Advice and recommendations on the ongoing development of the National Adaptation Framework are provided. The Council s responses to the draft sectoral adaptation plans that have been published up to the end of May 2017 are included in Appendix 7 of this report. The national transition objective is outlined in the Climate Action and Low Carbon Development National Policy Position 2014 and is defined in the Climate Action and Low Carbon Development Act 2015 as the transition to a low carbon, climate resilient and environmentally sustainable economy by the end of the year The national transition objective as defined in the legislation is the definition that is used throughout. 1

12 CLIMATE CHANGE ADVISORY COUNCIL PERIODIC REVIEW REPORT The First Report The Council published its First Report on 4 November It outlined the challenges of climate change based on the scientific understanding provided by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in its Fifth Assessment Report. This Periodic Review Report builds on the material contained in the Council s First Report. In that report the Council recognised the compelling scientific messages on climate change (Appendices 1 and 2). It welcomed the national, European and international policy responses aimed at preventing dangerous climate change in line with the objective of the UNFCCC. The Council expressed its view that by the middle of this century, Ireland should have no further negative influence on the Earth s climate system. In its First Report the Council identified key issues for Ireland and provided views on options to address these challenges. It acknowledged that the transformation required in Ireland s economy and society to meet this objective represents a different and more difficult task than any other area of public policy. It further noted that the costs of inaction will fall much more heavily on future generations. The current generation in Ireland, and elsewhere, will have to be leaders in transforming the economy and society to halt the rise in global temperature, which is the most well-known measure of climate change. For convenience the key messages and recommendations of the First Report are provided in Appendix 3. 2

13 DEVELOPMENTS IN INTERNATIONAL Climate POLICY 2. Developments in International Climate Policy This chapter provides an initial perspective on the Paris Agreement, 4 including the background to its key mitigation goals, related EU policy, and implications for Ireland. The Paris Agreement was adopted by the Parties to the UNFCCC in December After meeting the ratification criteria, it entered into force on 4 November The central aim of the Paris Agreement is to strengthen the global response to the threat of climate change. To date 151 of the 197 Parties to the UNFCCC have ratified the Paris Agreement. These include the EU on 5 October 2016 and Ireland on 4 November The detailed rules and processes for implementation of the Paris Agreement have yet to be fully agreed. The first meeting of signatories to the Agreement took place at the UNFCCC meeting in Marrakech, Morocco, in November 2016, where it was decided that these rules should be finalised in Effective implementation of the Paris Agreement is essential for prevention of dangerous global climate change Background The adoption of the Paris Agreement followed protracted negotiations. These were initiated at the 2010 Cancun meeting of the UNFCCC, which followed the failure of the 2009 Copenhagen meeting to agree a comprehensive global agreement. The Copenhagen meeting did result in the Copenhagen Accord, which included the objective to keep the global temperature increase below 2 degrees Celsius (2 C) and a process to review its adequacy. The Copenhagen meeting also established a goal to mobilise US$100 billion annually by 2020 to assist developing countries to respond to climate change through adaptation and mitigation actions. These issues were developed in Cancun and became important elements in the wider negotiation of the Paris Agreement. The information provided by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in its Fifth Assessment Report was also central to the Paris Agreement, particularly for its temperature goal and associated mitigation ambition The Paris Agreement and its Goals The Paris Agreement builds on the UNFCCC, which has the objective to stabilise atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases at a level that would prevent dangerous interference with the global climate system. 4 The Agreement aims to strengthen the ability of countries to deal with the impacts of climate change. The long-term goals of the Agreement are captured in Article 2, paragraph 1 as follows: y y Holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2 C above preindustrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 C above preindustrial levels, recognizing that this would significantly reduce the risks and impacts of climate change. Increasing the ability to adapt to the adverse impacts of climate change and foster climate resilience and low greenhouse gas emissions development, in a manner that does not threaten food production. Making finance flows consistent with a pathway towards low greenhouse gas emissions and climate-resilient development. 3

14 CLIMATE CHANGE ADVISORY COUNCIL PERIODIC REVIEW REPORT 2017 Regarding mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions, the Paris Agreement also specifies that countries collectively aim to peak global greenhouse gas emissions as soon as possible and undertake rapid reductions thereafter in accordance with the best available science, so as to achieve a balance between anthropogenic emissions by sources and removals by sinks of greenhouse gases in the second half of this century. 4 The Paris Agreement also represents the first international agreement to adopt global goals for adaptation and finance flows. The Council considers that the National Policy Position on adaptation (discussed in Chapter 5) is consistent with the global adaptation goal. As yet there is no national policy or objective on the transformation of finance flows. Progress towards implementation of the Paris Agreement and on achievement of its long-term goals will be subject to regular assessment under the global stocktake process. The first global stocktake will take place in 2023 and every five years afterwards. The modalities for this have not yet been fully agreed, but it will take account of the latest findings from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in the Sixth Assessment Report to be published in Nationally Determined Contributions The Paris Agreement requires all signatory countries to put forward their best efforts through Nationally Determined Contributions which are nationally legislated commitments. Over 160 such Contributions have been submitted to the UNFCCC. Parties are required to update their Nationally Determined Contributions every five years, in a process which is linked to the global stocktake. Updates are expected to represent a progression of efforts. For developed countries, their contributions must include economy-wide greenhouse gas emissions reduction targets. All countries are required to report regularly on their emissions and implementation efforts. As a Member State of the EU, Ireland s contribution to the Paris Agreement is captured in the EU s Nationally Determined Contribution which was based on the EU s 2050 emissions reduction roadmap. 5, The EU 2050 Roadmap The aim to limit the global temperature increase to 2 C has been a central pillar of EU climate policy since its adoption in 1997 ahead of the negotiation of the Kyoto Protocol to the UNFCCC. This position has subsequently been reaffirmed and elaborated based on findings of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, and most recently ahead of the negotiation of the Paris Agreement. The 2 C limit provides the rationale for the EU s long-term emission reduction ambition as outlined in the 2011 European Commission communication A Roadmap for Moving to a Competitive Low-Carbon Economy in It states that the transition towards a competitive low-carbon economy means that the EU should prepare for reductions in its domestic emissions by 80% by 2050 compared to The 80% goal has been adopted by the EU s Environment Council and reaffirmed in the EU Nationally Determined Contribution. The 2050 Roadmap sets out potential technologies and measures for achieving emissions reductions across the different sectors and makes estimates of how much can be achieved by the different sectors. How and when various sectors are envisaged to contribute to achievement of the roadmap for the required emissions reductions in the period to 2050 are shown in Figure

15 DEVELOPMENTS IN INTERNATIONAL Climate POLICY Under its Nationally Determined Contribution, the EU is committed to reduce its emissions by at least 40% relative to 1990 levels by This builds on commitments made under the 2020 Climate and Energy Package to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 20% from 1990 levels by 2020 and it is also consistent with the 2050 Roadmap. The 40% emission reduction target will be met through: A 43% reduction in the Emissions Trading Sector from 2005 levels. An aggregate 30% reduction from 2005 levels in the non-emissions Trading Sector from all Member States. The 2016 Effort Sharing Regulation (ESR) proposal set out proposed Member State Effort Sharing Regulation targets for It also identified a number of flexibility options to meet these targets, including the contributions from removals by land based sinks. The proposed headline target for Ireland is a 30% reduction in emissions relative to 2005 levels by 2030, with some limited access to flexibilities towards meeting these targets. These flexibilities include use of certain removals, for example, forest sinks and Emission Trading Scheme credits. However, Member State targets and flexibilities remain the subject of negotiation and have not yet been finalised. % Power Residential Industry Transport Non-CO 2 from agriculture Non-CO 2 other sources Figure 2.1: EU greenhouse gas emissions reductions necessary across all sectors to transition towards an 80% reduction relative to 1990 levels. Data source: European Commission EU 2050 Roadmap Clean Energy for All Europeans A significant development to help achieve the EU 2050 Roadmap was the publication of the Clean Energy for All Europeans package in This package of measures aims to provide leadership on the clean energy transition. The proposals from the Commission have three main goals: putting energy efficiency first, achieving global leadership in renewable energies and providing a fair deal for consumers. In this regard, the legislative proposals cover energy efficiency, renewable energy, the design of the electricity market, security of electricity supply and governance rules for the Energy Union. 5

16 CLIMATE CHANGE ADVISORY COUNCIL PERIODIC REVIEW REPORT 2017 In addition, the Commission proposes a new way forward for eco-design as well as a strategy for connected and automated mobility. These proposals, once finalised, will underpin and support Ireland s, and other Member States, transition to a cleaner energy system across heat, electricity and transport Potential Implications Prevention of dangerous climate change, through implementation of the Paris Agreement, is in the interest of Ireland, the EU and of the whole world. As noted in the Council s First Report, the impacts and costs of inaction will fall much more heavily on future generations. It is the current generation of leaders who are responsible for transforming the economy and society to ensure that the rise in global temperature is kept within the limits identified in the Paris Agreement. Stabilisation of the global temperature will occur before stabilisation of sea-level rise. As an island nation with considerable coastal assets and vulnerabilities, it is important that Ireland adapts its economy and wider society to the impacts of sea-level rise and the other effects of climate change which are already inevitable. The Paris Agreement has initiated a shift in climate policy, from a backward-looking focus on emissions reductions relative to a historic baseline in 1990 to a forward-looking objective of balancing emissions and removals in the second half of this century. It provides challenges for current reporting and accounting systems, including those established under the Kyoto Protocol. This reframing of the challenge also offers opportunities for more effective global actions by encompassing the diversity of circumstances that exist across developed and developing countries. It is essential that the systems and processes that are agreed to progress implementation of the Paris Agreement reflect and enable this potential. The EU will itself have to assess the implications of the Paris Agreement. The reduction targets contained in the EU s Nationally Determined Contribution will be subject to scrutiny in 2018 when the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change publishes its Special Report on warming of 1.5 C. Consideration of this report will be initiated by the UNFCCC in A more comprehensive EU policy and approach to both greenhouse gas emissions and removals by sinks is essential for achievement of the Paris Agreement. This would be expected to chart how an EU balance of emissions by sources and removals by sinks can occur Ireland s Engagement with EU and International Policy The Council recognises that the Paris Agreement provides a unique opportunity for effective global actions to prevent dangerous climate change which is in our collective interests. Achievement of its goals requires effective implementation to enable the required global transition. The development of rules, structures and processes for advancing the Paris Agreement will be critical for its implementation. The Council considers it essential that Ireland strongly engages with the EU and UNFCCC in implementation of the Paris Agreement, including in the development of its rules and processes in order to ensure that these are informed by national insights, analysis and experiences including those gained through working with our global partners in developing countries. 6

17 PROGRESS ON 2020 EMISSIONS REDUCTION TARGETS 3. Progress on 2020 Emissions Reduction Targets In this chapter Ireland s progress towards meeting its 2020 targets under the EU Effort Sharing Decision is considered. A brief context for the 2020 emission reduction targets, which were agreed as part of the EU Climate and Energy Package, is provided. The Council's consideration is based on Ireland s greenhouse gas emissions data for the period from 2013 to 2015 as provided in the National Inventory Report 2017 and on official emissions projections published in the same year. The analysis is presented in the context of Ireland s annual targets for the period 2013 to 2020, and the cumulative emissions budget for this period EU Climate and Energy Package In the run-up to the UNFCCC meeting in Copenhagen in 2009, the EU agreed to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions by 20% by As part of this process, in 2008 Ireland agreed to the EU Climate and Energy Package, 9 which was adopted in 2009 through four directives: Emissions Trading Scheme Directive 10 which considered a single EU wide cap for the third Emissions Trading Scheme allocation period 2013 to Effort Sharing Decision 11 which set national reduction targets for sectors not covered by the EU Emissions Trading Scheme. Renewable Energy Directive 12 which set national targets in electricity, heating and cooling and transport. Carbon Capture and Storage Directive 13 which promotes the role of carbon capture and storage in reaching the EU s long-term emissions reduction goal. The Emissions Trading Scheme Directive established a single EU cap which limits emissions from participating installations. The cap is reduced by 1.7% annually in the period from 2013 to From 2021 onwards, the rate of reduction will be increased to 2.2% (an outline of the EU Emissions Trading Scheme is included in Appendix 4). Participating installations in Ireland include large installations such as power generation, cement, lime and aluminium production and large companies in the food, drink and pharmaceutical sectors. Approximately 100 industrial and institutional sites in Ireland are included in the Emissions Trading Scheme, which accounted for 28% (16.8 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent) of greenhouse gas emissions in Ireland in The Emissions Trading Scheme accounted for 41% of greenhouse gas emissions in the EU in Under the Effort Sharing Decision Ireland agreed to a national target to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 20% by 2020, relative to 2005 levels, for the sectors covered by this decision. This includes annual targets and a cumulative target for this period. It effectively established an emissions budget of 338 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent for the period 2013 to The Effort Sharing Decision addresses emissions from a range of sectors. These include agriculture, transport, the built environment, waste and non-energy intensive industry. The Renewable Energy Directive requires that Ireland's final energy consumption comprises of 16% renewable energy by This is made up of 40% of electricity supply, 12% of heating and 10% of transport. The Emmissions Trading Scheme also includes participation of European Economic Area countries, that is, the EU plus Norway Liechtenstein and Iceland 7

18 CLIMATE CHANGE ADVISORY COUNCIL PERIODIC REVIEW REPORT Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory Official greenhouse gas emissions inventory data for Ireland are provided annually by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). 14 These are reported to the EU, where they are used to determine compliance with the Effort Sharing Decision targets, and the UNFCCC where they are used to determine compliance under the second commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol. The inventory is subject to in-depth international review by the EU and UNFCCC. The current inventory, which provides annual emissions data for the period from 1990 to 2015, was reported to the EU on 15 March 2017 and the UNFCCC on 12 April In 2015, Ireland s total greenhouse gas emissions increased by 3.7% (2.1 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent) relative to 2014 levels. This comprises annual increases of 5.5% (0.88 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent) under the Emissions Trading Scheme and 3.0% (1.2 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent) under the Effort Sharing Decision. Emissions in 2015 had increased by 4% (2.3 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent) relative to 2011 levels, which was the year of the lowest emissions since the emissions peak in These increases have been linked to Ireland s return to economic growth. Breaking the link between greenhouse gas emissions and economic growth is essential if current and future targets are to be achieved. The inventory data show that Ireland is compliant with its annual emissions targets in the period from 2013 to In that period emissions covered under the Effort Sharing Decision were below the annual targets by a total of 10.1 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (see Figure 3.1). These accrued emissions reductions may be used towards compliance with annual targets and the cumulative target to Greenhouse Gas Emissions Projections Official greenhouse gas emissions projections are provided annually by the EPA. 15 They are reported to the EU every two years under the Monitoring Mechanism Regulation 16 and to the UNFCCC every four years. The projections are produced in line with reporting obligations under the Monitoring Mechanism Regulation. The Monitoring Mechanism Regulation requires the projections of two scenarios referred to as with existing measures and with additional measures. Similar to the inventory data they are subject to in-depth international review. The projections inform understanding of expected progress towards meeting future annual targets and the cumulative target. The projections for the two scenarios indicate that Ireland s greenhouse gas emissions will exceed the annual targets from 2016 onwards (see Figure 3.1 and Table 3.1). Over the period from 2013 to 2020 greenhouse gas emissions are projected to exceed annual limits by a cumulative total of between 11.7 and 13.8 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (see Table 3.1). All projections are subject to uncertainties. The projections cannot fully predict, for example, the level of growth in the Irish economy or global energy prices. As a consequence actual greenhouse gas emissions will differ from the projections. Such considerations should be factored into measures that are included in the National Mitigation Plan. 8

19 PROGRESS ON 2020 EMISSIONS REDUCTION TARGETS 50 Greenhouse gas emissions (Mt CO 2 e) Historical Emissions Projected Annual Targets EU Effort Sharing Decision Figure 3.1: Ireland s greenhouse gas emissions as included under the Effort Sharing Decision (black line) from 2005 to Annual targets (yellow line) for the period 2013 to 2020 and emissions projections for with existing measures (dashed blued line) and with additional measures (dashed grey line) are presented here. Data source: EPA National Emissions Inventory and Ireland s Greenhouse Gas Emissions Projections Table 3.1: Actual (black itaics) and projected (blue and grey text) greenhouse gas emissions, covered under the EU Effort Sharing Decision targets, relative to annual totals and total cumulative emissions targets. Decrepencies may arise because of rounding. Data source: EPA National Emissions Inventory and Ireland s Greenhouse Gas Emissions Projections Year Targets Mt CO 2 e Emissions Mt CO 2 e Distance to target Mt CO 2 e With Existing Measures With Additional Measures With Existing Measures With Additional Measures Cumulative to date Remaining Total

20 CLIMATE CHANGE ADVISORY COUNCIL PERIODIC REVIEW REPORT EU Emissions Inventory and Projections Collectively the EU has surpassed its annual emission reduction targets. The 2015 greenhouse gas emissions were reduced by 22% relative to 1990 levels. 17 In 2015 emissions from the Emissions Trading Scheme were reduced by 24% and Effort Sharing Decision emissions were reduced by 12%, both relative to 2005 levels. Contributory factors include an uptake of renewable energy that has surpassed projections. The Commission analysis suggests that five Member States, including Ireland, are projected to miss their 2020 emission reduction targets. 16 The EU is projected to meet and surpass its targets to As part of its contribution to the Paris Agreement, by 2030 the EU will reduce its emissions by at least 40% relative to 1990 levels. This increase in ambition will be delivered by a reformed Emission Trading Scheme and through the establishment of binding Member State emissions reduction targets under the Effort Sharing Regulation. 7 While the package is still subject to negotiation, it will include removals associated with land use and forestry. The Council considers it urgent that additional and enhanced policies and measures are identified in the National Mitigation Plan. This will help to address the gap in emissions reductions required to meet the 2020 targets and ensure that the anticipated 2030 EU targets will be achieved as part of the low-carbon transition to Advice and Recommendations Ireland has, so far, met its annual emission targets and has accrued approximate savings of 10.1 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent. These can be used for compliance in the period to However, Ireland s emissions are increasing and projections indicate that Ireland will fail to meet its 2020 targets through domestic actions. If rapid economic growth continues, in the absence of further policies and measures, the overshoot on emissions could be even larger than currently projected. Compliance with the Effort Sharing Decision can be achieved through purchase of emission units to close the gap. Eligible emission units for compliance include Annual Emission Allocations (AEAs) purchased from other Member States or international credits representing investments in projects that have reduced emissions in developing countries or other developed countries. There are specific limits on the use of international credits for compliance with the Effort Sharing Decision. It is recognised that greenhouse gas emission reductions anywhere in the world contribute to avoiding dangerous climate change. However, international credits do not contribute towards the achievement of Ireland s national transition objective. In 2014 the potential cost of purchasing compliance was projected, at the time, to be 90 million, which would be incurred over the period from 2021 to 2022.,18 Such Government expenditure to purchase compliance would represent the use of public funds with no local co-benefits or national investment in a low-carbon transition. Purchase of compliance does not avoid the costs of emission reduction but rather delays the cost to the post 2020 period when further emissions reductions are required. It also leaves an even bigger challenge to achieve our emissions reduction objective for Therefore, purchase for compliance is only cost-effective where the current marginal abatement cost is greater than the sum of the current price of carbon (unit compliance cost), the future marginal abatement cost and the potential value of co-benefits of action in the current period. 10 Estimate was based on 2014 with existing measures projection which showed a 17.3 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent cumulative gap to target, thus implying a carbon price of In other words, where there are no abatement or mitigation options costing less than the price of carbon (P C ) plus the marginal abatement costs in the future period (MAC t+1 ) plus the value of co-benefits or P C + MAC t+1 + co-benefits

21 PROGRESS ON 2020 EMISSIONS REDUCTION TARGETS Decisions taken on investments in infrastructure and assets will have an impact on emissions in Ireland for decades to come. A clear signal in the form of government policy on the planned move towards low-carbon transition allows investors to schedule transformation of their asset and infrastructure portfolio in a planned manner. Delays in providing an adequate policy signal may result in further investment in carbon-intensive infrastructure. Failure to undertake early action would require faster, deeper and likely more costly transformation after If action is delayed too long, the required concentrated investment may pose affordability issues for the government budget in fiscally constrained circumstances with an ageing population. Strategic investments to reduce greenhouse gas emissions can achieve significant co-benefits in improved air quality, reduced congestion, green economy development, increased energy efficiency and health. Such investment reduces the emissions gap and enhances the affordability of longer term decarbonisation as envisaged in the low-carbon transition. In its First Report the Council identified a range of policies and measures that would contribute to meeting 2020 and longer term targets. These are summarised in Box 3.1. Such policies and measures are required to reduce any gap to our 2020 target. Given the inevitable uncertainty in projecting future emissions, the Council recommends that, as a basis for developing future policy, a range of emissions scenarios that reflect uncertainty across a number of dimensions be developed. Scenarios could explore the sensitivity of emissions outcomes to different factors, including behavioural response, different economic growth rates, technology uptake and fuel price variations. This would provide a wider evidence base for development of climate change policy. Box 3.1: Strategic issues identified in the First Report Renewable Energy Policies to enable renewable energy deployment are essential. Wind energy deployment has progressed at considerable pace, with 2,400 megawatts installed by 2015; there is a requirement for a further 1,600 megawatts to be installed before This requires an increased pace of installation. Policies enabling increased community engagement and more efficient and effective planning and regulation may aid timely deployment. Home Heating and Retrofits The Sustainable Energy Authority Ireland has estimated that in order to achieve 2020 Energy Efficiency targets, around 75,000 homes per year will need energy efficiency upgrades between now and Factoring health and quality of life benefits into analysis of the cost of retrofitting of homes makes such investments more attractive. Transport and Taxation Progress in tackling transport emissions has been very limited. While an appropriate price signal is essential, many other supporting measures will be needed to address the factors that influence transport choices. The Council recommends that health and wider societal costs, such as congestion costs, should be factored into decision making on transport. 11

22 CLIMATE CHANGE ADVISORY COUNCIL PERIODIC REVIEW REPORT 2017 Lessons learned from the restructuring of motor and vehicle registration tax systems in the past point to how changes in the tax system can produce significant changes in behaviour, while also being revenue neutral. Agriculture, Forestry and Land Use The agriculture sector in combination with forestry and other land use categories will need to outline a pathway to achieve its contribution to the 2050 national mitigation objective. This should include actions to significantly reduce emissions and to enhance carbon uptake in soils and biomass through sustainable forestry and improved land management. Sustainable afforestation can make an important contribution to climate actions and have wider ecological, economic and societal benefits. These actions will need to be implemented in a measurable, reportable and verifiable manner. The Council recognises that more research and development is needed; however, land management practices will require change. A timeline for expected delivery of solutions from such investment should be provided in the National Mitigation Plan. Research has shown that a switch to lower emission fertilisers would be effective in reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Pricing Carbon Emissions The Council emphasises the importance of an effective price signal for carbon emissions. The Council is concerned that the EU Emissions Trading Scheme has, to date, failed to deliver the price signal that is essential to advance decarbonisation of the electricity sector in Ireland and across Europe. The recent increase in the carbon intensity of electricity generation in Ireland reflects the defective nature of the current EU Emissions Trading Scheme. In June 2016, the Council advised the government on the need to advance reforms of the EU Emissions Trading Scheme, including the establishment of an adequate price floor. The introduction of a national carbon tax was a major step forward in putting a price on carbon for the rest of the domestic economy. This price must evolve to reflect the cost of achieving decarbonisation. The Council expects that the National Mitigation Plan will address the effectiveness of the current national carbon price and its future development. Non-price Interventions Price signals alone are not enough to incentivise sufficient decarbonisation. Individuals and companies respond in different ways to different policy instruments. As a result, a range of additional policies and measures are required to address behavioural barriers and promote the necessary behavioural change. These may include regulations, standards, education initiatives and targeted information campaigns. Addressing Fossil Fuel Subsidies There are many supports which either directly or indirectly subsidise the continued use of fossil fuels. The National Mitigation Plan should identify these subsidies and plan for their removal. In particular, the Council recommends that price supports for electricity generation from peat be removed as soon as possible, while also providing support for communities that may be adversely affected. 12

23 THE NATIONAL TRANSITION OBJECTIVE: MITIGATION 4. The National Transition Objective: Mitigation This chapter provides an assessment of Ireland s progress in furthering the achievement of the mitigation component of the national transition objective: the low-carbon transition to Sectors identified in the National Policy Position are examined in light of progress made relative to Challenges associated with each sector s transition to a low-carbon pathway to 2050 are outlined. As signalled in the First Report, issues related to carbon neutrality in the agriculture and land-use sector are also considered. Specific advice on mitigation policy is provided in Chapter Background The agreed national transition objective for mitigation of climate change in Ireland is that the country should transition to a low carbon, climate resilient and environmentally sustainable economy by 2050 taking into account the objectives of the UNFCCC and existing obligations under EU law (see Chapter 3). The National Policy Position established the low-carbon transition to 2050, based on two components: An aggregate reduction in carbon dioxide emissions of at least 80%, compared to 1990 levels, by 2050 across the electricity generation, built environment and transport sectors. An approach to carbon neutrality in the agriculture and land-use sector, including forestry, which does not compromise capacity for sustainable food production. The Council welcomes the distinction made between emissions of carbon dioxide from fossil fuel sources and the adoption of a comprehensive approach to land and agriculture activities. The Council considers that the level of ambition expressed is broadly in line with European and international objectives. The Council also recognises that further policy measures are essential and that these must be developed in the first and subsequent National Mitigation Plans Carbon Dioxide Emissions to 2050 Emissions of carbon dioxide peaked in 2005 at 48.0 million tonnes of carbon dioxide. Ireland s carbon dioxide emissions amounted to 38.4 million tonnes in This was 17% higher (5.6 million tonnes of carbon dioxide) than emissions in There have been significant changes in Ireland over the period from 1990 to Population has increased from 3.5 million to 4.6 million people, a 32% increase. In the same time period Ireland s gross national product (GNP) per capita in real terms increased from 17,761 in 1990 to 41,849 in 2015.,20 Both population growth and economic growth are recognised as key drivers of greenhouse gas emissions. 21 Per capita emissions of carbon dioxide peaked at 12.4 tonnes in Per capita emissions in 2015 were 8.2 tonnes a decrease of 12% from 9.3 tonnes in These data show that Ireland has made some progress in decoupling emissions from economic growth. However, these reductions were strongly influenced by the economic recession. Future reductions, of over 2% a year, similar to the rate experienced during the recession, will be required to achieve the low-carbon transition to Reductions on this scale will need to come from policy for sustainable economic development in combination with effective national climate policy. A linear pathway for carbon dioxide emissions to 2050 is shown in Figure 4.1. This illustrates that In 2013 prices The EU average per capita carbon dioxide emissions was 6.9 tonnes 2015, with values ranging between 3.7 and 16.5 tonnes, in Latvia and Luxemburg respectively. 13

24 CLIMATE CHANGE ADVISORY COUNCIL PERIODIC REVIEW REPORT 2017 achieving the level of emissions reduction in the period up to 2050 would require average annual carbon dioxide emission reduction of 2.4%, relative to 2015 levels. Delay in reducing emissions would result in greater annual reductions being required in future years in order to achieve the low-carbon transition. The most recent projections 15 indicate that carbon dioxide emissions will increase between now and 2035 (see Figure 4.1). If this trajectory is followed then achievement of the low-carbon transition would become increasingly difficult and the costs would likely increase over time as outlined in Chapter Carbon dioxide emissions (Mt CO 2 e) Historical Emissions Projected Emissions Illustrative liner pathway to 80% reduction in CO 2 emissionsby Figure 4.1: Emissions of carbon dioxide in Ireland from 1990 to 2015 (black line) and projections ( with existing measures ; dashed blue line) from 2016 to An illustrative linear pathway (dashed organge line) for achievement of the low-carbon transition to 2050 is shown. Data source: EPA National Emissions Inventory and Ireland s Greenhouse Gas Emissions Projections Sectoral Emissions of Carbon Dioxide Three main sectors are identified in the National Policy Position; electricity generation, the built environment and transport. For completeness, the analysis provided here addresses all fossil carbon emissions in the National Inventory Report. 14 The low-carbon transition for these sectors is illustrated in Figure 4.2. In this figure the Other sector encompasses the emissions that are not included in the three main sectors, such as those from industrial processing. The Council considers that a national carbon budget and how it is used between and across sectors is a critical issue that should be addressed in the National Mitigation Plan Electricity Generation Emissions from electricity generation made up approximately 28.9% of total carbon dioxide emissions in The carbon intensity of this sector almost halved between 1990 and 2015, decreasing from 900 to 470 grams of carbon dioxide per kilowatt hour (g CO 2 /kwh). 23 This is principally attributed to fuel switching, in particular the uptake of gas,,24 and the increasing 14 This application of similar percentage reductions to each sector is done for illustrative purposes only. Natural gas power generation has increased from 27% to 45% of energy used for electricity generation in Ireland.

25 THE NATIONAL TRANSITION OBJECTIVE: MITIGATION amount of renewable energy being used to generate electricity. There was a 2% increase in the carbon intensity of electricity generation in 2015 relative to This increase is attributed to increased use of coal in electricity generation in It reflects the failure to date of the EU Emissions Trading Scheme to provide an appropriate price for carbon. There has been important progress in reducing the carbon intensity of electricity generation. Total carbon dioxide emissions from this sector in 2015 were similar to those in This has occurred while electricity generation has increased from 14 to 29 gigawatt hours from 1990 to Decarbonisation of electricity generation is essential for economy-wide decarbonisation by The replacement of high-emission fuel types such as peat and coal with low-emission fuel types and energy sources is a crucial part of the low-carbon transition to 2050 for the electricity generation sector. This is especially important to advance decarbonisation in the linked areas of heating and transport where electrification is an important option. The Energy White Paper states that by 2050 fossil fuels will largely be replaced by renewable energy sources across all energy sectors. Significant national and local action is required for this transformation of electricity generation to be achieved The Built Environment Emissions from the built environment sector were 19.8% of total carbon dioxide emissions in 2015 and have decreased by about 18% relative to 1990 levels, that is, from 9.3 to 7.6 million tonnes of carbon dioxide. This decrease has occurred over a period in which energy efficiency, particularly in buildings constructed since 2000, has improved significantly and is driven by improved building standard regulations first introduced in 1992 and most recently in Building Energy Rating data show a legacy issue in the older housing stock, which on average performs significantly worse on energy efficiency. It is encouraging that a number of buildings built before 1960 have been retrofitted to achieve an A Building Energy Rating. 26 This demonstrates that deep retrofit is technically feasible in many housing types. The rate of retrofit needs to be significantly scaled up to address legacy building stock. In addition alternative low-carbon energy sources are required to address the remaining demand for heat, light and services. While total emissions from this sector have decreased, the rate of decrease must be accelerated to achieve the required lowcarbon transition Transport The most significant increase in emissions since 1990 has occurred in the transport sector. Emissions have increased by 132% from around 5 million tonnes of carbon dioxide in 1990 to 11.7 million tonnes in Emissions peaked in 2007 at 14.2 million tonnes. Economic activity is the main driver of transport emissions. Both the number of vehicles on the road and kilometres travelled increased in this period. The growth in activity has outpaced significant improvement in efficiency of the national fleet resulting from the switch to more energy efficient vehicles supported by the taxation system. Emissions from this sector need to be reduced in line with the National Policy Position. This will involve a profound transition in the sector which reverses the current trend. This can be achieved through the adoption of zero and near zero carbon transport options across public and private transport modes and through enhanced transport management systems. 15

26 CLIMATE CHANGE ADVISORY COUNCIL PERIODIC REVIEW REPORT % Carbon dioxide emissions (relative to 1990) Electricity generation Built environment Transport Other Figure 4.2: A 2050 roadmap for emissions of carbon dioxide across the sectors responsible for fossil carbon dioxide emissions. Historical emissions and an illustrative linear pathway to 2050 from 2015 for each sector are shown for achievement of an 80% reduction in carbon dioxide emission, relative to1990 levels, from Dashed line represents the boundary between historical emissions and illustrative emissions reductions to Data source: EPA National Emissions Inventory Establishing a Pathway to 2050 The sectoral analysis above shows that there has been a degree of progress in all areas. However, the task of decarbonising the economy by 2050 remains challenging. Emissions have not been adequately decoupled from economic growth. Currently emissions are higher than those in 1990 and acceleration of actions is required by each of these sectors. The Council considers that development of decarbonisation pathways for these sectors to 2050 should be an important component of the National Mitigation Plan. These pathways should outline options and approaches to accelerating decarbonisation including consideration of how to: Address legacy issues and associated carbon lock-in. Take account of the different turnover times for assets and infrastructure. Address systemic issues in education, training, information and engagement. These sectors do not exist in isolation. The overall National Mitigation Plan will need to ensure that each sectoral pathway matches up in an efficient and cost-effective manner. For example, progress in decarbonisation of the electricity sector can contribute to overall decarbonisation of the wider economy, especially in relation to heating and transport. However, electrification of heating and transport will only achieve the required emissions reduction if electricity generation is decarbonised. The Council recognises that a higher carbon price in the EU Emission Trading Scheme would accelerate decarbonisation of this sector to However, national approaches to accelerate decarbonisation need to be identified and implemented. 16

27 THE NATIONAL TRANSITION OBJECTIVE: MITIGATION 4.5. Carbon Neutrality for Agriculture and Land Use The 2015 Paris Agreement includes a goal to achieve a balance between anthropogenic emissions by sources and removals by sinks of greenhouse gases in the second half of this century. The National Policy Position specifies an approach to carbon neutrality in the agriculture and land-use sector, including forestry, which does not compromise capacity for sustainable food production in The outline of the 2050 neutrality challenge provided in the First Report is reproduced in Appendix 8. The concepts of greenhouse gas balance and neutrality will need to be further developed and examined in depth by the scientific community in the coming years and will be addressed in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change s Sixth Assessment Report. This is particularly important for land-use policy, which is currently envisaged as being a key part of managed carbon dioxide removal from the atmosphere. Globally, and in Ireland, the links between climate change, food production and land use are complex. Effective management of land is needed to achieve the required levels of mitigation. Adaptation of food production systems will be required to ensure resilience to climate change and sustainability. In 2015, greenhouse gas emissions from the agriculture sector in Ireland were 19.8 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent, approximately 32% of total emissions. 14 These are primarily emissions of methane, 64%, and nitrous oxide, 34%. In 2015, the forest sink was 3.9 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent.,27 However, some land uses are a source of carbon dioxide emissions; these include drained organic soils for various purposes and the harvesting of peat. The interplay between land use for food and energy production is likely to evolve over the coming decades. This is expected to include a greater appreciation of land based ecosystem services including carbon sequestration Steps Towards Neutrality How the approach to the neutrality objective is to be achieved and how it will be verified needs to be determined. The objective implies that the greenhouse gas emissions and their influence on climate would be balanced by removal of an equivalent amount of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. This requires development of pathways by which greenhouse gas emissions are reduced while removals are greatly enhanced. The Council recognises that assessment of neutrality is likely to include consideration of: Approaches to enhance management and sequestration of carbon in soils and biomass as well as the potential use of negative emissions technologies such as Bioenergy with Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS). The need for reduction of emissions of methane and nitrous oxide through deployment of mitigation options including animal and plant breeding, genomics, management systems and technologies. Taking account of the characteristics of the key greenhouse gases including the lifetimes and potency of these gases. For example, methane is a more potent greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide, but has an atmospheric lifetime of approximately 12 years. Nitrous oxide is more potent than methane and carbon dioxide, and has an atmospheric lifetime of approximately 120 years. Due to current reporting rules covering emissions and removals for forestry, the total forest land removals figure differs from the accountable removals eligible under the Kyoto Protocol. 17

28 CLIMATE CHANGE ADVISORY COUNCIL PERIODIC REVIEW REPORT Enterprise opportunities including diversification of land use, such as mixed-use and provision of ecosystem services. There is an urgent requirement to address scientific gaps in understanding of emissions and removals from farm to national scales. This should include the impact of management practices and technologies across the range of agricultural and land use enterprises. This will also require provision of robust data collation and independent verification systems Agriculture and Land-Use Emissions and Removals In Ireland the dominant greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture and land-use comprise methane and nitrous oxide. The characteristics of these gases and how they contribute to climate change is an important dimension to defining and acting on greenhouse gas neutrality. Methane emissions are mainly associated with enteric fermentation in animals and manure management. Nitrous oxide emissions are associated with fertiliser use, manure management and land management. Carbon is sequestered from the atmosphere and is, in part, stored in biomass and soils. The carbon stocks in biomass and soils are influenced by management systems, natural cycles and increasingly the impacts of climate change. Ireland s land-use profile is dominated by agricultural grassland (60%), wetlands (17%) forestry (11%) and cropland (9%). The national forest is a significant carbon stock, and has the potential to increase further. The National Forest Policy 28 is to increase forest cover from 11% (768,000 hectares) to 18% by Successful implementation of the plan is important, and the possibility of greater ambition should be explored. In general, agricultural soils in Ireland have high carbon stocks, with some potential for further enhancement. 29 There is considerable variation across Ireland and full science based quantification of this potential is still to be established. Organic soils, wetlands and peatlands represent the largest and most vulnerable stocks of soil carbon in Ireland. The treatment of these stocks will be a key factor for achievement of neutrality for the agriculture and land-use sector. The systems to assess carbon sequestration in land uses, other than forestry, are not well developed. Steps to address this deficit are needed. Currently, Ireland reports ongoing emissions associated with agricultural land and peatlands caused by drainage of organic soils Agriculture and Land-Use Diversification The links between emissions and removals activities within the land use, food and energy production, and other ecosystem services are illustrated in Figure 4.3. The definition and boundaries for land-use policy are not well defined and the links between the energy and other sectors, and the agriculture and land-use sectors are expected to evolve. There are emerging opportunities for diversification of the rural economy to address a broader spectrum of economic and societal needs. Currently, many Irish farmers are locked into lowincome, low-profit farming systems. Opportunities to provide alternative and more remunerative income opportunities for these groups may emerge, for example through alternative uses for grass, and conversion of land to renewable energy and biomass production. Actions at national and EU level, including reform of the Common Agriculture Policy, post-2020, may influence this transition.

29 THE NATIONAL TRANSITION OBJECTIVE: MITIGATION As the bioenergy sector expands, links between agriculture, land use and energy may become more complex, for example creating a link between land-use changes driven by demand for bioenergy to displace fossil fuel. Potential links also exist between the construction and material sectors of the economy in terms of use of land resources to provide raw materials including wood products to displace materials with high embedded emissions. In this way, the activities and links illustrated in Figure 4.3 become increasingly focused on land management and ecosystems services. There is a need to address emissions associated with harvesting of peat to meet other demands including for heating and horticulture. There are cultural and heritage drivers to the use of peat for residential heating. The use of peat for residential heating has declined significantly since 1990 because of fuel switching by households. This is likely to continue, but steps to accelerate this are needed. Emerging drivers of peat drainage and harvesting, for example horticulture, will need to be addressed. The future management of such carbon rich soils will be an important element in development of an approach to neutrality for the agriculture and land use sector. Fossil fuel substitution by bioenergy Energy and horticultural use of peat Food processors Enteric Fermentation Wetland Manure Management Other Land Settlement Grassland Forest Fertiliser Application Cropland Energy use in agriculture Agriculture Land Use Bioenergy Carbon Capture and Storage Renewable energy from installations on agricultural land Figure 4.3: Schematic of the interactions between agriculture, land use and the energy sectors. The shaded areas are activities reported under agriculture and land use, land-use change and forestry. Other activities are reported within other sectors but depend on agriculture and land for resources and services Challenges for Ireland Achievement of neutrality for the agriculture and land-use sector is complex and challenging. Ireland should be at the forefront of international efforts to determine a scientifically and environmentally robust pathway for approaching neutrality within these sectors. In doing this Ireland should also contribute to understanding how the global balance of greenhouse gas emissions and removals as envisaged in the Paris Agreement can be achieved. 19

30 CLIMATE CHANGE ADVISORY COUNCIL PERIODIC REVIEW REPORT 2017 The Council highlights the urgent need to address key information and analysis gaps that exist for agriculture and land-use sector as well as the need to develop a national land use strategy to 2050 which encompasses and enables an increasingly diverse rural economy and society. The Council emphasises the need to achieve the overall national mitigation transition objective and reiterates its position that Ireland should have no further negative impact on the global climate by the middle of this century. Achieving the goal of approaching neutrality for the agriculture and land use sector should be a key part of this. 20

31 NATIONAL MITIGATION PLAN National Mitigation Plan 2017 The publication of the National Mitigation Plan on 17 July means that the Council had insufficient time to provide analysis and advice on its contents in this report. The draft National Mitigation Plan from the Department of Communications, Climate Action and Environment was published on 15 March In response to a request from the Minister, the Council established a process to engage with and provide advice to the key Departments that had contributed to the development of the draft National Mitigation Plan. Council correspondence providing its views and recommendations to these Departments is contained in Appendix 5. The Council welcomes the announcement by the Minister of Communications, Climate Action and Environment that the Minister for Public Expenditure and Reform has initiated a review of the Public Expenditure Code and looks forward to considering the outcomes from the process. The advice and recommendations contained in this chapter are provided as a response to the draft National Mitigation Plan. The Council was concerned at the lack of specific detail on new actions and commitments in the draft National Mitigation Plan. The National Mitigation Plan should provide specific detail on how the anticipated mitigation gap to 2020 will be addressed and outline pathways for achievement of the low-carbon transition to Common and overarching issues contained in the Council s correspondence with the Departments are briefly outlined here. We also address important gaps in the draft National Mitigation Plan Pathway and Ambition The 2050 national transition objective and the National Policy Position together provide the overall goal for the National Mitigation Plan and sectoral actions. The National Mitigation Plan should reflect their ambition. It should clearly signal the direction of travel for the main sectors and outline scenarios to These scenarios should make clear the required near-term policies, measures and actions to meet long-term goals. Such analysis would enhance clarity on policies and measures, providing greater certainty to the private sector and to the public. The National Mitigation Plan should provide a transparent and coherent framework for economy-wide actions towards 2030 and 2050 targets and goals. The response must enable an integrated and managed transition. Ownership and Implementation The Council considers that, in addition to the statutory processes identified in the Climate Action and Low Carbon Development Act 2015, high level ownership and management of this process is required to ensure that actions are progressed in a coordinated manner and their performance adequately measured. Cross-Sectoral Approach Addressing climate change provides a unique challenge for public policy. The response must be inherently cross-sectoral and it must provide an integrated and managed transition. Climate policy should be coherent with and inform development of related sectoral and cross-sectoral policies such as the National Planning Framework. Given the major task that Ireland faces, it will be essential to use fiscal measures as a major cross-sectoral policy instrument in tackling the problem of climate change. Where market failures are established, other instruments will also be required. Overall the wider links between climate and fiscal policy need to be further developed. 21

32 CLIMATE CHANGE ADVISORY COUNCIL PERIODIC REVIEW REPORT 2017 Sectoral Goals Sectoral goals that are consistent with and contribute to the achievement of the low-carbon transition for 2050 should be identified. These goals, in combination with milestones, provide increased clarity for stakeholders and the public by capturing the required low-carbon transformation in a more tangible and understandable manner. These goals should be established in a way that ensures a cost-effective reduction in emissions across all sectors. Electricity Generation Decarbonisation of electricity generation is essential for economy-wide decarbonisation by A sectoral goal for electricity generation for 2050 should be specified in the National Mitigation Plan. The recent increase in the carbon intensity of electricity generation in Ireland reflects the insufficient price signal from the EU Emissions Trading Scheme. Currently peat fired electricity generation receives price support from the Public Service Obligation (PSO) levy on all consumers electricity bills. The planned phase-out of this subsidy by 2020 is an important step in decarbonising electricity generation. The draft National Mitigation Plan highlighted the potential of Ireland s abundant indigenous renewable resources. Options to realise this potential, including the utilisation of emerging technologies and solutions for distributed generation, should be included in the National Mitigation Plan. Policies to enable renewable energy deployment with an increased pace of installation are essential. Increased community engagement and more efficient and effective planning and regulation may aid timely deployment. Built Environment A sectoral goal for the built environment is required that incorporates the expected performance level of buildings in 2050 in terms of heating, lighting and appliances. The EU Energy Performance of Buildings Directive requires all new buildings to be nearly zero-energy by the end of The new Building Regulations set out this requirement for new buildings in Ireland. Retrofit of the existing building stock is the key challenge in addressing energy efficiency in the built environment. The goal should be deep retrofit of the existing building stock to near zero emission levels through energy efficiency retrofit and low-carbon energy sources. The Sustainable Energy Authority Ireland estimated in 2016 that in order to achieve 2020 Energy Efficiency targets, around 75,000 homes per year will need energy efficiency upgrades between now and 2020 but deeper retrofit is required for the 2050 low-carbon transition. A strategy is required for taking the existing housing stock to the required performance levels by 2050 with near zero emissions and at minimum cost to the consumer. The strategy should address synergies and trade-offs between shallow and deep retrofits and should take on board lessons learned from existing retrofit programmes and behaviour, community and transitions studies to inform a cost-effective policy response. Factoring health and quality of life benefits into analysis of the cost of retrofitting of homes will make the required investment more attractive. Transport The National Mitigation Plan should outline a 2050 sectoral goal with short, medium and longterm milestones. This should include key transition points and clear options for the deployment of effective existing low and zero-emissions technologies. Key elements of the sectoral goal should include phase-out of the internal combustion engine in private transport and enhanced public transport provision. Innovative solutions and alternative fuels are required for the freight sector. 22

33 NATIONAL MITIGATION PLAN 2017 Transport investments, especially public transport, need to be integrated with spatial planning to reduce transport demand and maximise progress in reducing emissions. This integration should form a key part of the sector s plan. Market failures and critical constraints for provision and use of alternative energy sources also need to be identified, and fossil fuel lock-in avoided, enabling the full decarbonisation of future transport systems. Co-benefits like health, air quality and mobility are central to assessment of the costs and benefits of policies and measures in this sector. Agriculture and Land Use It is essential that options to reduce emissions and enhance removals associated with agriculture and other land uses are identified and deployed. Options for the diversification of farming and land management in the context of changing demand for products and services should be considered. Research to expand and improve the range of mitigation options is required including animal and plant breeding, genomics, management systems and other technologies. In Ireland, farming management practices are relatively efficient in terms of greenhouse gas emissions per unit product; however more efficiency gains can be made, particularly through knowledge transfer and deployment of best practice across a larger cohort of farm enterprises. All land uses and types should be included in mitigation actions. Wetlands and peatlands need to be addressed in the National Mitigation Plan. Policies and practices to preserve and enhance these carbon stocks are needed as part of the overall achievement of neutrality for the agriculture and land-use sector. 31 A large area of land is in direct or indirect state ownership. The State can provide leadership in development of approaches and strategies to maintain and enhance carbon uptake in these lands. An implementation programme to quantify the progress towards neutrality should be developed which includes necessary measurement and observation systems. The Council has identified the need for the development of a national strategy for management of Ireland s land resources to encompass and enable an increasingly diverse rural economy and society that addresses multiple needs for food, energy, materials and ecosystem services. Carbon Pricing In its First Report the Council highlighted the importance of an effective price signal for carbon emissions in guiding how Ireland can meet its climate change objectives in the most costeffective manner. In planning public investment it is essential that appropriate prices for carbon, and other significant co-benefits and externalities, are incorporated into decision-making. The Council is concerned that the existing carbon pricing mechanisms have, to date, failed to deliver an adequate price signal to advance decarbonisation across the economy, consistent with the low-carbon transition. Recent work by the High Level Commission on Carbon Prices, supported by the World Bank, concluded that the explicit carbon-price level consistent with achieving the Paris temperature target is at least US$40 80 per tonne of carbon dioxide (tco 2 ) by 2020 and US$50 100/tCO 2 by 2030, provided a supportive policy environment is in place. 32 The Council has previously communicated its recommendation that the EU Emissions Trading Scheme needs reform, including the establishment of an adequate price-floor. 33 The Council further notes that provision of a clear signal from government, on the further development and increase of the carbon tax to 2030, would drive decarbonisation in the private sector. Carbon pricing is further discussed in Appendix 4. 23

34 CLIMATE CHANGE ADVISORY COUNCIL PERIODIC REVIEW REPORT 2017 Fossil fuel subsidies are a barrier to decarbonisation. They reduce the price of carbon emissions, and so make unsustainable consumption practices more attractive relative to sustainable alternatives. In Ireland, one example of a fossil fuel subsidy is the public price support for peatfired electricity generation. There are other national supports which either directly or indirectly subsidise the continued use of fossil fuels. It is the view of the Council that the National Mitigation Plan should initiate a process to identify these in order to inform a strategy for their removal in an appropriate manner. Engagement and Implementation It is imperative that positive behavioural responses to decarbonisation interventions are supported across Irish society. The complex barriers to societal and behaviour changes will need to be identified and addressed in a positive and constructive manner in conjunction with relevant societal groups, so that public engagement is enhanced and high uptake or positive response to measures is achieved. Market failures and critical constraints will need to be identified and addressed. Policy development should take on board lessons learned from a broad range of perspectives, including behavioural, community and transitions studies. This will inform a cost-effective policy response and support both a just transition to a low-carbon society and a just distribution of burdens and benefits resulting from policy interventions. Activities such as the Citizens' Assembly on Climate Change and the National Dialogue on Climate Change provide the initial building blocks for a climate-engaged society in Ireland, while long-term engagement and awareness strategies will need to be developed. Societal Wellbeing and Co-benefits The distributional effects, and the wider environmental and social costs and benefits, of the range of policies proposed need to be appropriately considered. The benefits and opportunities for heath, wellbeing and sustainable development that arise from this transition warrant a much higher profile within the National Mitigation Plan. In assessing the costs and benefits of different proposed measures to address climate change, sectors should apply the appropriately modified Public Expenditure Code. The analysis of mitigation options should consider co-benefits, particularly with respect to other policy objectives, such as the areas of air and water quality, biodiversity, health and wellbeing. This would enhance consistency in decision making and thus help achieve a more cost-effective approach. Strengths and Opportunities Ireland has abundant indigenous renewable resources. Cost-effective options to realise this potential, including the utilisation of emerging technologies and solutions for distributed generation, should be included in the National Mitigation Plan. Existing strengths and assets such as the extensive and modern gas infrastructure, the strong information and communication technology industry and the building materials industry should be recognised and incorporated into planning. 24

35 THE NATIONAL TRANSITION OBJECTIVE: ADAPTATION 6. The National Transition Objective: Adaptation The National Policy Position identifies achievement of a climate-resilient and environmentally sustainable economy by 2050 as a key part of the national transition objective. 2 This is to be achieved through a continuing, iterative and evolving process under the National Adaptation Framework. The National Policy Position also states that the National Adaptation Framework will articulate a strategic policy context for appropriate action at a sectoral and local level, in response to the impacts of climate change in Ireland in the shorter and longer term. The objective of the Framework will be to inform and mobilise an integrated approach, involving all stakeholders on all institutional levels, to ensure that adaptation measures are taken and implemented, including through incorporation into future investment plans where appropriate, to manage and reduce sectoral and local vulnerability to the negative impacts of climate change. It should also provide a clear mandate for Government Departments, agencies and local authorities to develop and implement sectoral and local adaptation plans. The EU Adaptation Strategy provides a regional context and supports adaptation actions by Member States. The aim of the EU Strategy is to contribute to a more climate-resilient Europe. This means enhancing the preparedness and capacity to respond to the impacts of climate change at local, regional, national and EU levels, developing a coherent approach and improving coordination. Adaptation is a central component of the Paris Agreement and EU policy. Article 7 of the Paris Agreement established a global goal of enhancing adaptive capacity, strengthening resilience and reducing vulnerability to climate change, with a view to contributing to sustainable development and ensuring an adequate adaptation response in the context of the temperature goal. Unlike mitigation of climate change, there is no generally accepted adaptation metric. In this context a range of indicators at local and sectoral levels are being developed to determine progress in adaptation actions. In addition, processes to identify and reduce risks associated with climate change through adaptation have been established under the UNFCCC and by the EU, including the EU climate adaptation preparedness scoreboard. 34 These utilise concepts such as exposure, vulnerability, risk and resilience, which are also expected to be a part of the National Adaptation Framework implementation process in determining progress on achievement of the national resilience objective as set out in the National Policy Position Global Context for Development of National Resilience Ireland has a temperate marine climate 35 but it can experience considerable climate variability, and recent occurrences of extreme weather and climate events have highlighted vulnerabilities. Climate change is expected to affect climate averages and patterns, as well as increase variability, including shifts in weather patterns, changes in the frequency and intensity of weather extremes and other impacts including projected sea level rise and ecosystems changes. The overall rate and magnitude of climate change impacts that Ireland experiences will be determined by the effectiveness of global mitigation actions under the Paris Agreement. The effectiveness of these actions may not be clear for some time. This introduces additional uncertainty into investments which have long lifetimes, including infrastructure. The National Policy Position is focused on achieving resilience by In this period impacts and risks are projected to be largely similar regardless of the actual global emissions pathway 25

36 CLIMATE CHANGE ADVISORY COUNCIL PERIODIC REVIEW REPORT 2017 taken. 36,37 The projected climate impacts for the rest of this century and beyond, and the level of adaptation needed to ensure resilience, are strongly divergent depending on the global emissions pathway. 38 The likely longer term impacts will become clearer over the coming decades as implementation of the Paris Agreement is progressed. Ireland will continue to experience the effects of climate change, climate variability and associated uncertainties particularly in relation to extreme events. Investment decisions should be based upon informed understanding of current vulnerabilities, projected risks and their uncertainties National Capacity, Risk and Adaptation The Council recognises that Ireland has built national capacity in the areas of research and analysis, and is continuing to do so. However, knowledge, information and skills gaps exist that need to be addressed. There is growing awareness of climate-related risks and the need to develop and expand appropriate skills across all sectors and response systems, particularly in public sector organisations and local authorities. The development of the National Adaptation Framework and the increasing need to address socio-economic exposure, are primary drivers of capacity building in Ireland. Risk assessments are being developed to prioritise actions, and indicators are being developed to monitor progress on adaptation and the effectiveness of adaptation actions Progress Towards National Transition Objective The 2015 Climate Action and Low Carbon Development Act requires the Council to review progress made in furthering the achievement of the national transition objective. The National Policy Position states that the National Climate Change Adaptation Framework will constitute a key pillar for developing and progressing adaptation policy to pursue and achieve transition to a climate resilient and environmentally sustainable economy by The Council looks forward to the publication of the 2017 National Adaptation Framework which will frame and support adaptation measures and actions over the period to 2022 and establish a process to achieve climate resilience by The Council welcomes the efforts of a number of sectors in producing draft adaptation plans for consultation and the Council s Adaptation Committee has consulted with and heard from a range of sectors. 26

37 National Adaptation FRAMEWORK National Adaptation Framework 2017 The 2017 National Adaptation Framework will be provided to government by the end of the year and will play a vital role in helping Ireland achieve its national transition objective. In this context the Council considers that the National Adaptation Framework will need to provide short, medium and long term perspectives which take account of risks and uncertainties for planning and investment cycles and decision making. This includes taking account of: Current and historic vulnerability to weather and climate variability and extremes as a basis for determining risks and exposure. Projected changes in vulnerability, risk and exposure. Slow-onset changes such as sea level and certain ecosystem responses. The potential for climate change to trigger events that are highly disruptive at national level. The occurrence of low-probability, high-impact events including the changes in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation or the loss of the Greenland Ice Shelf. The National Adaptation Framework should enable a more integrated approach to adaptation planning in Ireland, ensuring the national action plan is coordinated and takes account of shared responsibilities and risks across stakeholders. A common framework for the prioritisation of investments in adaptive measures across all sectors should be established. Guidance on National Adaptation Framework The National Adaptation Framework should establish a management framework to bring sectors together in order to address cross-sectoral and cascading issues, prioritise those most in need of action and coordinate responses to them. In this context, the framework should promote and enable measures that are flexible, low-regret, provide multiple benefits and address current vulnerability while taking account of projections of future climate conditions and associated impacts, risks and associated uncertainties. In the absence of a draft National Adaptation Framework, the Council has identified a number of issues which it considers important for inclusion in the National Adaptation Framework. Ownership and Implementation The National Adaptation Framework should provide the necessary governance framework and implementation and delivery structures, including required short term policies, measures and actions. The Council considers that in addition to the statutory processes in the Climate Action and Low Carbon Development Act 2015, high level ownership and management of this process is required to ensure that actions are delivered in a coordinated manner and their performance adequately monitored and assessed Pathway and Ambition The National Adaptation Framework should provide a structure and process including criteria that can be used to identify what a climate resilient Ireland would look like in This should enable assessment of progress towards that goal. This may involve a statement of what constitutes a climate resilient economy and society, along with a framework that enables the responsible sectors to develop their own resilience goals. 27

38 CLIMATE CHANGE ADVISORY COUNCIL PERIODIC REVIEW REPORT 2017 Assessing Costs and Benefits Assessing the costs, benefits and distributional impacts of adaptation measures is a key step in identifying a pathway and suite of measures to create an Ireland resilient to the impacts of climate change. The Office of Public Works has carried out in-depth analysis of the costs and benefits of a wide range of measures on a local area basis which could guide wider assessments. Critical Infrastructure Critical infrastructure across energy, transport, water, communications and other sectors are crucial for our economy and society to function. The resilience of these infrastructures and the services they provide will play an important part in determining how effective we are in adapting to climate change. A national assessment of critical infrastructure should be considered as part of adaptation planning under the National Adaptation Framework. Health, Wellbeing and Social Impacts In addition to the adverse impacts of climate change on health, the Council has noted that the positive impacts of climate action on health and wellbeing need to be incorporated into decisionmaking. It supports the development of synergies between adaptation policy, health, security and wellbeing. An integrated approach is required with an analysis of co-benefits and social impacts as part of ensuring an equitable transition. The Department of Health promotes a Health in All Policies 39 approach and climate change adaptation offers an opportunity for improving health. Forecasting, Weather Warnings and Emergency Response Effective national operational meteorological capability and emergency response measures will play a critical role in preparing for, learning from and responding to future weather patterns and the impacts of climate change, including extreme events. Extreme weather events can provide lessons on how to address new patterns of risk and vulnerability and to understand how to promote adaptation strategies in real world situations. The Council welcomes Met Éireann s move to develop impact based weather and climate services and recognises the critical nature of national meteorological infrastructure and expertise needed for operational nowcasting, short-term forecasting and longer-range forecasts and projections. Programs for Raising Awareness The Council welcomes the National Dialogue on Climate Action as an opportunity for public engagement on the impacts of climate change and adaptation measures to build resilience. Exposure to External Impacts Ireland is a small open economy and will need to take account of the global impacts of climate change. The National Adaptation Framework should consider these issues. Observations and Considerations from the First Report The Council wishes to highlight a number of cross-cutting issues identified in the First Report by the Council s Adaptation Committee, which may assist in the National Adaptation Framework development process. These included: 28

39 National Adaptation FRAMEWORK 2017 Governance There is a need for clarity on governance and ownership of implementation actions arising from the National Adaptation Framework process. The Council highlights that adequate financial and human resources are required in order to deliver, implement, monitor, evaluate and amend actions as necessary. In this context, the Council identified thematic and structural issues which can support an integrated approach to cross-cutting actions. These are restated in Appendix 6. Learning Process Adaptation to climate change is a continuous learning process. There is a pressing need to learn from both successes and failures. Learning well may be key to adapting well. Managing Interconnectivities There is a need to identify and manage the interconnectivities that exist across sectors, scales and levels of governance, including potential cascading of effects. Cascading effects are observed when the disruption of services from one sector or location leads to knock-on effects elsewhere. Engagement, Awareness and Behavioural Measures Positive engagement with citizens and stakeholders is essential in addressing the adaptation challenge through provision of information and identifying and tackling behavioural barriers. This will require mechanisms that facilitate exchange of information between stakeholders and communities, particularly addressing barriers to adaptation and approaches to tackling them together. There is an urgent requirement to raise informed awareness in all communities that climate change, with its impacts, is taking place and requires action, with the role of local authorities being critical. Local authorities will need to be fully equipped to play this important role in shaping local responses to climate change. Behavioural measures will have to play a key role in the development of actions to meet the national resilience objective. Importance of Existing Systems It is important to recognise the importance of existing systems and supports, including in forecasting, warning and response systems, and to build on and enhance these. Authoritative Information Climate Ireland It is essential that adaptation planning is supported by authoritative, relevant information and analysis in a coherent and structured manner. The Climate Ireland platform provides critical information to support planning by sectors and local authorities. The Council considers that this should evolve from research to an operational phase as a national information portal. Draft Sectoral Adaptation Plans Two draft sectoral adaptation plans were published for public consultation by the transport, and agriculture and forestry sectors. The Council reviewed the plans and the initial advice provided on these plans is included in Appendix 7. 29

40 CLIMATE CHANGE ADVISORY COUNCIL PERIODIC REVIEW REPORT 2017 The Council highlighted a number of general points for consideration by all sectors, including: The need for clear governance, ownership and engagement structures which should be developed and maintained as part of the overall National Adaptation Framework and for all sectors. The need to ensure that the sectors use consistent climate change data and analysis for their plans, including projections of future climate conditions In this context the need to support research to provide Ireland-relevant climate information over a range of temporal and spatial scales in order to assist decision making on adaptation. 30

41 CONCLUSIONS 8. Conclusions Climate change presents unique challenges for public policy. The transformation required to meet the national transition objective is a different and more difficult task than any other area of public policy. The National Mitigation Plan and National Adaptation Framework will provide the conceptual basis for development of a low emission, climate resilient and environmentally sustainable economy and society by High level ownership and leadership of the implementation of these plans is necessary to ensure that: Those actions are progressed in a coordinated manner with performance measured and tracked against goals and targets. An integrated approach is taken to address the twin challenges of climate change in a comprehensive manner to ensure that actions are linked. The aim should be to integrate climate change issues into standards, management, planning and investment decision making, enabling synergies and minimising negative trade-offs. This process should also ensure that co-benefits and opportunities, including for health, wellbeing and sustainable economic development that will arise from the low-carbon, climate resilient transition are realised. The National Mitigation Plan and National Adaptation Framework are central to national policy for a planned transition to a low-emission climate resilient economy and society. Implementation of these plans in Ireland will take place in the context of regional and global transitions and changes, some of which may be globally disruptive. The regional and global context for actions needs to be an ongoing factor in implementation of these plans. The global impacts of climate change are expected to continue and evolve throughout this century and in many cases beyond this century. These global changes can have significant local impacts, such as economic shocks and population migration, which can result in social tensions and economic difficulties. Ireland has a small open economy which depends to a large degree on international trade and Foreign Direct Investment. Export and import of goods and services is a significant proportion of Ireland s gross national product. Therefore global developments in climate and climate policy that impact other countries will likely have an indirect impact on Ireland. In addition, many multinational companies with investments in Ireland have made pledges to act on climate change. It is likely that foreign direct investment will be influenced by Ireland s reputation in addressing climate change. It is in Ireland s interest not only that it is recognised as a positive participant in addressing climate change but also that this is part of a global effort. The development of international climate policy is relevant to consideration of how to address climate change domestically. Implementation of policies, measures, and deployment of technologies to tackle climate change is a complex undertaking. Not all policies or technologies to date have achieved the desired uptake rate or outcome. Behavioural response is often a key factor in the success and effectiveness of particular solutions. Greater understanding of, and ability to respond to, the diverse and dynamic social, material and psychological drivers of behaviour is required. This can be advanced through community engagement and dialogue processes which can, in turn, inform effective policy making and measures. In general, policies and measures should be flexible and able to respond to, and evolve through, measured experience and learning. Enabling positive behaviour 31

42 CLIMATE CHANGE ADVISORY COUNCIL PERIODIC REVIEW REPORT 2017 change can enhance the effectiveness of existing measures and identify other measures that empower groups and communities at a range of scales. The envisaged National Dialogue on Climate Change can have a role in addressing these issues and can increase social awareness and responsiveness in addressing climate change. Such interventions need to be sustained in order for them to have enduring impact. Social acceptance of the need to transition to a low carbon and climate resilient society and economy can accelerate actions. For this to occur, it requires the impact of policies and measures on different segments of society and on different communities to be identified and addressed. The development of a fair and equitable approach for transition is key to enhancing public acceptance. The distributional impact of measures for example, a carbon tax can fall more heavily on low-income groups. Such imbalances need to be addressed in a positive manner. Similarly, carbon intensive industries which are impacted by measures may need support to prepare for employment in alternative industries. The overall process should aim to enable a just and equitable transition and to address the distributional effects appropriately. Similarly, opportunities that arise from the transition to a low carbon, climate resilient and environmentally sustainable economy, need to have broad societal ownership. 32

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46 CLIMATE CHANGE ADVISORY COUNCIL PERIODIC REVIEW REPORT Directive 2010/31/EU of the European Parliament and of the Council of 19 May 2010 on the energy performance of buildings, [Online]. Available at content/en/txt/?uri=uriserv:oj.l_ eng&toc=oj:l:2010:153:full [Accessed: 30 June 2017] 31 Renou-Wilson, F., D Wilson, C. Barry, B. Foy, and C. Müller (2015) Carbon Loss from Drained Organic Soils under Grassland CALISTO, Environmental Protection Agency, Research Report 141, ISBN: , [Online]. Available at: research141carbonlossfromdrainedorganicsoilsundergrasslandcalisto.html [Accessed: 30 June 2017] 32 The High Level Commission on Carbon Prices is an initiative of the Carbon Pricing Leadership Coalition, a voluntary partnership of national and sub-national governments, businesses, and civil society organizations launched by the World Bank Group. Carbon Pricing Leadership Coalition (2017). Report of the High-Level Commission on Carbon Prices [Online]. Available at: [Accessed: 30 June 2017] 33 Climate Change Advisory Council (2016) Letter to Minister Naughten regarding EU ETS [Online]. Available at: 34 European Commission (2013) An EU Strategy on adaptation to climate change, Communication from the Commission to the European Parliament, the Council, the European Economic and Social Committee and the Committee of the Regions, Brussels, , COM(2013) 216 final, [Online]. Available at: eu-adaptation-policy/strategy [Accessed: 30 June 2017] 35 Met Eireann (2017) Climate of Ireland, [Online]. Available at: [Accessed: 30 June 2017] 36 Nolan, P. (2015) Ensemble of regional climate model projections for Ireland, EPA Report 159, ISBN: , [Online]. Available at: research/climate/research159ensembleofregionalclimatemodelprojectionsforireland.html [Accessed: 30 June 2017] 37 Kirtman, B., S.B. Power, J.A. Adedoyin, G.J. Boer, R. Bojariu, I. Camilloni, F.J. Doblas- Reyes, A.M. Fiore, M. Kimoto, G.A. Meehl, M. Prather, A. Sarr, C. Schär, R. Sutton, G.J. van Oldenborgh, G. Vecchi and H.J. Wang (2013) Near-term Climate Change: Projections and Predictability. In: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, [Online] Available at: FINAL.pdf [Accessed: 04 July 2017] 38 Collins, M., R. Knutti, J. Arblaster, J.-L. Dufresne, T. Fichefet, P. Friedlingstein, X. Gao, W.J. Gutowski, T. Johns, G. Krinner, M. Shongwe, C. Tebaldi, A.J. Weaver and M. Wehner (2013) Long-term Climate Change: Projections, Commitments and Irreversibility. Eds: Stocker, T.F., Qin,D., Plattner, G.-K.,Tignor, M., Allen, S.K., Boschung, J., Nauels, A., Xia, Y., Bex, V., and Midgley, P.M. In Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working 36

47 Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, [Online] Available at: FINAL.pdf [Accessed: 04 July 2017] 39 World Health Organisation (2014) Health in All Policies, Helsinki Statement, Framework for Country Action, World Health Organisation, ISBN [Online]. Available at: [Accessed: 30 June 2017] 37

48 CLIMATE CHANGE ADVISORY COUNCIL PERIODIC REVIEW REPORT 2017 Appendix 1 Scientific Understanding Please note that this appendix has been reproduced from Section 2 of the First Report. The Council will use the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (AR5) (5) as a primary source of scientific information and analysis. The Council will also consider authoritative updates of this report from other UN bodies, as well as major review papers and relevant findings from European and national research including work carried out or funded by the Environmental Protection Agency, the Sustainable Energy Authority Ireland, the Economic and Social Research Institute and Teagasc. The main findings of the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change are well known and the full reports are readily available. (5) Warming of the climate system is unequivocal and the human influence is clear. Impacts of this are apparent across all continents and oceans. (6) The key driver of climate change is the additional energy being trapped in the Earth s climate system by the build-up of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide are the most important greenhouse gases (see Text Box 1). Global temperature has increased by almost 1 C since pre-industrial times. Future temperature increases will, primarily, be determined by historic, current and future emissions of carbon dioxide (7) which build up, or accumulate, in the atmosphere. Even with effective global actions to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases, the impacts of climate change are projected to continue well into this century. Some, such as sea-level rise, are projected to continue into the next century. (2) The extent to which Ireland will experience the impacts of climate change will be determined by the effectiveness of local, EU and global actions to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases and local actions to adapt to the evolving change. In a situation of such uncertainty it is essential to consider the risks associated with a range of greenhouse gas emissions scenarios ranging from successful and ambitious climate policy to business as usual climate policy. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has provided such analyses for a range of emissions pathways: from keeping the global temperature increase below 2 C to business as usual pathways, where the temperature increase is projected to greatly exceed 2 C. This allows for comparative analysis of projected impacts, vulnerabilities, risks and costs associated with such climate futures. The impacts of climate change are expected to be experienced as a combination of gradual changes such as changes to ecosystems; slow onset changes such as sea-level rise; and changes in extremes such as an increase in the frequency and intensity of heavy rainfall events. The occurrence of low probability, high impact events, such as the changes in large scale ocean circulation (for example, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, best known in Ireland through the effects of the Gulf Stream), should also be included in risk assessments. Vulnerabilities and levels of risk also vary by sector, location and through time, and are considered further in Section 5. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has adopted a series of Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) for this purpose. RCP2.6 represents the low emissions pathway while RCP8.5 is the business as usual high emissions pathway. 38

49 Text Box A1: Greenhouse gas emissions The Fifth Assessment Report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change shows that the global temperature increase will primarily be determined by the cumulative emissions of carbon dioxide; that is, the sum of historical, current and future emissions. This arises from the complex relationships between the atmospheric carbon cycle and those of the terrestrial and ocean systems. Consequently, a significant proportion of carbon dioxide emissions will perturb the atmosphere for centuries to millennia, with impacts that will persist for tens of millennia. Emissions of additional carbon dioxide therefore represent a substantial multi-century commitment to future climate change. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has identified carbon dioxide budgets that would lead to stabilisation of the global temperature at specific levels. This implies that emissions of carbon dioxide have to be reduced to net-zero to stabilise the global temperature at any particular level. (7) For a temperature increase of 2 C the cumulative emissions budget is between 2,500 and 5,000 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide since For a temperature increase of 1.5 C this is between 1,800 and 4,000 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide. The range is a result of scientific uncertainties about the Earth s response to the additional energy being trapped; for example, the climate sensitivity. In 2010 the cumulative emissions of carbon dioxide are estimated to have been between 1,500 and 1,700 billion tonnes, with annual emissions being of the order of 37 billion tonnes. At this rate of emissions the budgets for 1.5 C and 2 C may be exceeded in the next 5 to 25 years, respectively. It is therefore likely that active interventions to reduce atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations will be needed to stabilise the global temperature below 2 C. The need for such technologies is extremely likely if the global temperature is to be stabilised at 1.5 C. Such interventions include carbon dioxide removals by forests or other land sinks and the use of negative emissions technologies; for example, bioenergy coupled with carbon capture and storage. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has identified that large scale reliance on such approaches may entail significant risks. Emissions of non-carbon dioxide greenhouse gases must also be addressed. The Fifth Assessment Report states that to keep the global temperature increase well below 2 C, net greenhouse gas emissions must be brought to near or below zero by the end of the century. It also recognised that it is not currently feasible to reduce all greenhouse gases to zero. After carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide are the two most important greenhouse gases. Globally methane is emitted as a result of a diverse range of human activities including from fossil fuels, agricultural food production and waste management. In Ireland, methane and nitrous oxide mainly arise from agricultural activities. Current technological solutions for addressing these emissions are limited. Methane is a much more potent greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide but only remains in the atmosphere for a relatively short period, i.e. 12 years. Nitrous oxide is also a potent greenhouse gas. It has a longer atmospheric lifetime of 120 years. A range of industrial gases and air pollutants also impact on the climate system over short and long lifetimes. These are considered further in Appendices 1 and 2. Neutralising or balancing emissions and removals of carbon dioxide and non-carbon dioxide greenhouse gases represents a considerable challenge but it is necessary at national and global levels. Climate sensitivity can be described as the temperature response of the Earth s climate system to a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide levels; the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change provided a likely range of 1.5 C to 4.5 C. 39

50 CLIMATE CHANGE ADVISORY COUNCIL PERIODIC REVIEW REPORT 2017 Appendix 2 Influences of Greenhouse Gases and Other Pollutants Please note that this appendix has been reproduced from Appendix 1 of the First Report. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change determines the relative influences of greenhouse gases and other pollutants on the climate system by estimating their influence on the global energy balance since pre-industrial times, i.e This is calculated as radiative forcing in watts per metre squared (Wm -2 ).The estimates of this provided in the Fifth Assessment Report are shown in Figure A1.1. Figure A2.1: Radiative forcing of climate between 1750 and (6) It is notable that radiative forcing by carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) dominates this chart and that methane (CH 4 ) and nitrous oxide (N 2 O) are the second and third most important greenhouse gases. The impact of a basket of industrial gases which include ozone depleting substances (ODS) and their replacement gases is also significant. While ozone depleting substances have been regulated under the Montreal Protocol and the Vienna Convention, their replacement gases, mainly hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), are addressed under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. Moves to address these gases together under the Vienna Convention may be more appropriate from a policy perspective; however, the Council will aim to keep an overview of these emissions as part of it work. Also of note is the importance and variability of impacts of air pollution on climate. Increases in ground level ozone a short-lived gas with an atmospheric lifetime of days to weeks are significant. The impacts of other air pollutants are to cool the Earth by reflecting the energy from the sun directly as hazes or indirectly through influencing cloud characteristics. These impacts are short term but importantly have acted to mask some of the warming influences of greenhouse gases. It is noted that black carbon or soot is an exception to this, which acts to absorb solar energy and reduces the amount of energy reflected by snow and ice, leading to warming. 40