Entrepreneurship Opportunities in the Solar Industry Abstract According to Schumpeter, a great economist, technology revolution can create gales of cr

Transcription

1 Entrepreneurship Opportunities in the Solar Industry Douglas Causey, Adjunct Instructor Jackson State University Department of Entrepreneurship and Professional Development (601) Vershun L. McClain, Ph.D., Visiting Assistant Professor Jackson State University Department of Entrepreneurship and Professional Development (601) Mary M. White, Associate Professor and Chairperson Jackson State University Department of Entrepreneurship and Professional Development (601) Donald Causey, Assistant Professor Jackson State University Department of Entrepreneurship and Professional Development (601) ASBE 35th: Proceedings Page -51-

2 Entrepreneurship Opportunities in the Solar Industry Abstract According to Schumpeter, a great economist, technology revolution can create gales of creative destruction that may result in the elimination of existing industries that are replaced by new ones which offer more sustainable and profitable opportunities (Schumpeter, 1942). This paper postulates that rapid improvements in solar energy technology represent a rare opportunity to create structural change in the electricity generation industry while providing the United States with sustainable, competitive energy alternatives and entrepreneurs with enormous wealth creation opportunities. Specific topics addressed are current and emerging solar energy technologies, estimated market scale and outlook, and potential entrepreneurship opportunities. Introduction Currently, leadership in the U. S. has made energy independence a strategic initiative. The United States depends on foreign countries for two-thirds of its needs. President Obama believes our excessive reliance upon traditional hydrocarbons is unsustainable (Obama, 2009). Thus, he has made a commitment to renewable energy. Technology changes, coupled with strong interest in using green energy technology, have made solar energy a priority area for renewable energy development. Technology in the Solar Industry Albert Einstein had a keen interest in solar energy technology; he received a Nobel Prize for work in this area in 1958 (Solar Energy Industries Association). Since that time solar energy technology has been evolving to address the issues of high installation costs and non-competitive power costs when compared to traditional sources of energy such as oil and natural gas. The recent escalation of global 2 ASBE 35th: Proceedings Page -52-

3 energy prices combined with a renewed interest in green technologies that address such issues as global warming have fueled tremendous interest and growth in solar energy technology. As shown in Attachment I, solar technologies began in the 1950 s and accelerated during the energy crisis of the 1970 s. The cost to produce solar energy has decreased from 30 times the traditional cost of energy generation to less than 3 times the traditional cost (Energy Information Administration/Electric Power Annual, 2007). Although these improvements are significant, barriers exist that prevent the industry from gaining truly widespread adoption. Currently, less than one percent of all electric power in the United States is generated from solar energy. Some barriers that have prevented greater penetration of the market are inefficient photovoltaic (PV) cell technology, high silicon wafer costs, high installation costs, and slowly developing regulatory and tax policies. Many of these barriers are being addressed by emerging technologies. The emerging technologies include, but are not limited to, increased photovoltaic (PV) cell efficiency, use of solar thermal collectors to provide low temperature heat for heating and cooling systems, use of energy concentration systems to heat other fluids that may be used in turbine generation systems, passive solar systems, solar ovens, and thin wafer technologies. Many of these technologies address the following areas for improvement: better materials science so that solar energy collection efficiency increases from around 22 percent (compared to 16 percent in the past) (Davidson, 2007); greater applications such as space heaters, and heating and cooling systems for commercial and residential uses; time sensitive energy release systems so that solar energy is used to heat or cool during optimum time periods; mobile appliances and other devices that can be used for heating or cooling such as crock pots, small ovens, and others; and energy storage technology that enables optimal energy collection times combined with energy storage for later transmission to a local or national grid. 3 ASBE 35th: Proceedings Page -53-

4 Some organizations such as the Department of Energy, Applied Materials, Sun Power, and First Solar are doing research in some of these areas (Davidson, 2007). However, solar energy technology is clearly a burgeoning area for entrepreneurs to exercise their creative energies. The driver for large research investments in the solar energy field is the enormous potential market that is ready and waiting for new sources of clean energy technology. Attachment I Historical Timeline of Events 50 s 60 s-70 s 80 s-90 s First photovoltaic (PV) device developed by Bell Labs Energy crisis increases interest and use of solar energy technology First solar energy generator station (SEGS) built Emerging PV technology leads to greater efficiency and solar energy becomes more competitive with traditional energy sources Einstein received Nobel Prize for energy power research Cost for solar generation is 30 times traditional costs Nine plants built in California using SEGS technology Rapid growth of solar energy market, ranging from 40-50% New technology leads to significant decline in solar costs generation Global warming increases emphasis on renewable energy Source: Solar Energy Industries Association Market Scale and Outlook The total electricity energy generation market in the United States is approximately 4.2 Billion megawatt hours in 2007 (Energy Information Administration/Electric Power Annual, 2007). Solar energy represents less than 2 percent of this market. However, the solar energy market is growing because new technologies are pushing the cost of solar energy generation to equal or less than traditional energy cost generation. For example, First Solar is projecting that their cost of energy generation will approach $ ASBE 35th: Proceedings Page -54-

5 per watt using thin film technology versus a cost of $2.80 per watt for traditional technology. The U. S. Department of Energy (DOE) is projecting that solar energy cost generation will equal traditional cost by Thus, competitive solar energy prices are expected to drive solar energy usage from 13 billion watts to 40 billion watts in about 3 years. This represents a compounded annual growth rate of approximately 45 percent. Estimated growth rates have ranged from 40 to 50 percent for the solar energy generation market. Another measure of market growth is the number of PV cell shipments per year. The numbers of shipments in the United States has increased at over 50 percent annually for the past 10 years (Energy Information Administration/Electric Power Annual, 2007). As new applications continue to develop, the market growth trend should remain very strong. Recent tax incentives and other programs introduced at the state and federal level are designed to increase the penetration of solar and other alternative fuels into the energy industry (Solar Energy Industries Association, 2009). Entrepreneurship Opportunities The growth in the solar energy generation industry represents many new opportunities for entrepreneurs. One does not have to obtain an engineering degree or some other technical background to seize upon these opportunities in this industry. They span the entire value chain from PV cell production equipment manufacturing to management of the national energy grid system. The opportunities include original equipment manufacturing, PV manufacturing, PV product testing and delivery, PV cell installation and servicing, new energy storage devices, mobile solar energy based appliances, management of the solar energy supply to the national grid system, development of alternative materials to produce wafers or semiconductors, energy usage monitoring devices, development of heating and cooling systems, development of new hot fluids for cogeneration or electrical turbines systems, and many others. All of the opportunities can be categorized into three major categories associated with the energy generation value chain: reduce the cost of power 5 ASBE 35th: Proceedings Page -55-

6 generation, improve the speed and reliability of power generation, and expand the opportunities to apply renewable, sustainable energy technology to new applications across the value chain. Some general examples of these opportunities are shown in Attachment II. Each area of the value chain offers business venture opportunities that can create value using one or more of the three major categories. Attachment II Opportunity Recognition Solar Energy Generation Value Chain Equipment to PV Cell PV Cell Energy Energy Capture & National Grid Regenerative Manufacture Manufacture Installation Generation Storage Management Technology PV cells Development Source or manufacture equipment Semiconductor materials improvement Cell installationcommercial, residential Conversion from traditional technology to solar energy Storage systems Monitor energy flows Improve collection efficiency Product testing Reduce cell size -Thin wafers -Nanotechnology New applications -HVAC -Home appliances Scale-up opportunities for existing systems Improve capture efficiency Energy trading and arbitrage opportunities Value chain cost efficiency Manufacturing operations improvement Lower manufacturing costs Support services -Maintenance and repair Transmission Network Management New materials technology -Warranty 6 ASBE 35th: Proceedings Page -56-

7 Cross Value Chain Opportunities Training of customers, employees, etc. Operating procedures, manuals development Value chain integration Consulting services Photovoltaic (PV) Cell Equipment Manufacturing This opportunity pertains to the sourcing of critical inputs necessary to build and operate plants that produce PV cells. The requirements for these plants will grow as the number of PV panel shipments continue to expand. Opportunities for entrepreneurs include procurement, training, servicing equipment, operating businesses as original equipment manufacturing representatives, and distributing or marketing PV cells from the plant to wholesalers and other customers. Entrepreneurs may also get involved in applying lean manufacturing and six sigma processes to improve the operation of the manufacturing processes. PV Panel Shipments Distribution This opportunity involves the establishment and operation of distribution networks to supply a rapidly growing market. This includes warehousing product, inventory management, supply chain management, and product support (packaging, handling damaged goods, and other activities). Integrating information systems to manage the supply chain is also included in this category. 7 ASBE 35th: Proceedings Page -57-

8 PV Panel Installation This opportunity requires the entrepreneur to establish a business that will procure panels for direct installation in residential or commercial buildings. The commercial buildings could include schools, apartment complexes, office buildings, and small shopping centers. This business could be established using a variety of arrangements with a local utility such as direct purchase of panels from the utility then installation, or simply allow the utility to purchase all equipment and supplies so that the entrepreneur can focus on installation and service. Duke Energy has established an arrangement of this type with entrepreneurs in the North Carolina marketplace (Duke Energy, 2009). This program could well be the precursor to many similar approaches to building out the solar panel installation market. The solar energy technology is also focused on supplying other energy intensive systems such as HVAC systems and mobile appliances. As these technologies develop new opportunities will emerge for entrepreneurs. Conversion to Solar Energy Generation The transition from traditional energy sources to solar powered systems will require installing, replacing, or modifying the equipment and infrastructure within the electrical industry. Entrepreneurs can perform a vital role assisting with planning and implementing these energy systems conversion projects. Other opportunities will emerge in the area of sizing the solar system and expanding it as commercial needs grow. This ability to right size the new system to an old system could represent a challenging and interesting business opportunity. Energy Captivation and Storage Once the energy has been generated, the electrons have to be captured and used or stored. Opportunities will exist to improve efficiency of energy captivation and storage during this crucial step in the value chain. This process will also enable the global movement of energy across networks, or the 8 ASBE 35th: Proceedings Page -58-

9 national grid, to improve the efficiency of energy use across the country. Also, technologies will be developed to enable energy captivation across different appliances or platforms such as fixed storage units, mobile devices, as well as traditional panels. Effective management of the flow of energy from the storage unit to the national grid is another fruitful area of consideration. National Grid Management Once the individual solar systems are installed and operational, power will be generated from multiple sources. Some of that power will be consumed immediately, the remainder may be sent to higher demand locations for consumption. This global energy exchange should present opportunities for managing the network, participating in energy exchange and trading arrangements, and possibly identifying arbitrage opportunities. This downstream opportunity is far from developed but should present yet another area for wealth creation. Technology Regeneration Once the entire industry has achieved significant scale on the operational level, new opportunities for increasing efficiency and effectiveness will emerge. The solar energy industry will continue its path of evolution toward better technology that should be integrated across the entire system. Once again, new entrepreneurship opportunities should emerge from this process. As change is implemented across the entire system, that change will precipitate the need to reconsider all of the individual value chain areas for additional improvement opportunities. This virtuous cycle may continue for many years. 9 ASBE 35th: Proceedings Page -59-

10 Cross Chain Opportunities While the case for opportunities clearly exist within each of the value chain areas, there is yet another group of opportunities that can be identified by evaluating the overall chain as an integrated whole. Evaluating this chain in such a manner reveals opportunities for training through out the system, opportunities to develop operating procedures and manuals at all levels, opportunities to troubleshoot and smooth out the performance of the entire system and to enhance integration. These examples are but a few of the many system-wide opportunities that may emerge. Astute entrepreneurs will identify opportunities to create consulting firms and other service organizations, such as internet information providers targeted to improve the value chain. These consultants will become integral to maintaining the virtuous cycle of change previously mentioned in this article. The opportunities will also shift as the industry evolves through the traditional business cycle of industry growth, maturation, and decline. This industry is clearly a long way from finishing the rapid growth stage and should present enormous opportunities for aspiring entrepreneurs. Conclusion There is significant entrepreneurial opportunities within solar industry. The global production value of the photovoltaic industry in the past five years has constantly performed at a compound annual growth rate of 35 percent, Ellick Liao, COO of Taipei, Taiwan-based Gintech, said in an October 2008 speech at the Taiwan International Photovoltaic Forum. Five years ago, most experts predicted that solar power would only become a mainstream [fixture of] the global power supply after the year Liao targets 2015 as a more likely date for that to happen (Baldwin, 2009). 10 ASBE 35th: Proceedings Page -60-

11 References Applied Materials (2009). Retrieved June 25, 2009 from Baldwin, H. (2009, June 04). Opportunities in solar: The push for renewable energy is pulling manufacturers into the market for photovoltaic cells. EMSNOW. Retrieved June 25, 2009 from Davidson, P. (2007, August 26). Forecast for solar power: Sunny. USAToday. Retrieved June 25, 2009 from Duke Energy (2009). Retrieved June 25, 2009 from Energy Information Administration/Electric Power Annual 2007, p. 16. First Solar. (2009). Retrieved June 25, 2009 from Obama, B. (2009). Inauguration address, January Poole, B. (2008, September 26). Tax credit extension brightens solar outlook. Tuscon Citizen. Retrieved June 25, 2009, from Schumpeter, J. (1942). Capitalism, Socialism and Democracy. New York: Harper and Brothers. 5 th ed. London: George Allen and Unwin, Solar Energy Industries Association. (2009). Retrieved June 25, 2009 from U. S. Department of Energy. (2009). Retrieved June 25, 2009 from 11 ASBE 35th: Proceedings Page -61-