DOE Solar Energy Technologies Program Accelerating the U.S. Solar Industry

Transcription

1 Solar Energy Technologies Program DOE Solar Energy Technologies Program Accelerating the U.S. Solar Industry Southeast Solar Market Update National Conference of State Legislatures Southeast Solar Energy Institute Washington, DC October 8, 2009 John Bartlett Financial Analyst Solar Energy Technologies Program (SETP) Department of Energy Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy

2 In the U.S., solar resources significantly outweigh energy use Despite the size of the resource, solar currently provides less than 0.1% of the electricity used in the U.S. The entire continental U.S. has a solar resource superior to that of Germany, the largest market for solar PV. U.S. Department of Energy Solar Energy Technologies Program Slide 2

3 Despite its solar resource, the U.S. has been a comparatively small market for solar With a solar resource similar to that of Alaska, Germany has installed nearly five times the amount of solar PV as the U.S. Global cumulative installed PV capacity through 2008 (IEA 2008 and 2009, REN , EurObserv ER 2009, Sherwood/IREC 2009) U.S. Department of Energy Solar Energy Technologies Program Slide 3

4 Top five state markets for solar PV in the U.S. Within the U.S. as well, solar adoption has been driven by state policies as well as the solar resource. Annual and cumulative grid-connected PV in top state markets, (Sherwood 2009) U.S. Department of Energy Solar Energy Technologies Program Slide 4

5 Southeast Case Study 1: North Carolina Solar Set- Aside in its Renewable Portfolio Standard With the requirement of generating 0.2% of its electricity from solar by 2018, over 200 MW of solar will be installed within the next 10 years Solar Set-Aside Capacity (MW) Solar Set-Aside Generation (GWh) Solar capacity and generation needed to meet North Carolina s solar set-aside within its renewable portfolio standard (Lawrence Berkeley National Lab 2009) U.S. Department of Energy Solar Energy Technologies Program Slide 5

6 Southeast Case Study 2: Utility Solar Projects in Florida The DeSoto Next Generation Solar Energy Center At 25 MW, it will be the largest U.S. PV installation Commenced construction in late 2008 with expected completion in October 2009 The Space Coast Next Generation Solar Energy Center 10 MW of PV, located at Kennedy Space Center Commenced construction in June 2009 with expected completion in early 2010 U.S. Department of Energy Solar Energy Technologies Program Slide 6

7 Southeast Case Study 2: Utility Solar Projects in Florida The Martin Next Generation Solar Energy Center At 75 MW, it will be the largest solar installation of any kind outside of California The first hybrid solar facility to connect to an existing combined-cycle power plant The first U.S. concentrating solar power (CSP) installation outside of the Southwest Commenced construction in December 2008 with expected completion by the end of 2010 U.S. Department of Energy Solar Energy Technologies Program Slide 7

8 With incentives, PV is currently at grid parity for a large number of areas in the U.S. Analysis for 1000 largest utilities in the U.S. Key drivers for PV are incentives, electricity prices and quality of the solar resource. Analysis assumes both Federal ITC and state incentives. Under review/revision Please do not cite U.S. Department of Energy Solar Energy Technologies Program Slide 8

9 Projected price reductions could make PV systems widely attractive across the U.S. by 2015 At $5/W, attractive in 98 of 1,000 largest utilities, which provide ~25% of U.S. residential electricity sales. At $4/W attractive in 328 utilities, ~42% of sales. At $3/W attractive in 743 utilities, ~80% of sales. Under review/revision Please do not cite U.S. Department of Energy Solar Energy Technologies Program Slide 9

10 PV system price declines from 2008 to 2009 As a result of increased production capacity and reduced demand due to the financial crisis, PV system prices have dropped significantly PV System ASP ($/W-dc) $8.00 $7.00 $6.00 $5.00 $4.00 $3.00 $2.00 $ E ASP 2009E ASP Estimate Change $0.00 -$ Year Global average PV system prices, from surveys of industry analysts in Q and Q (Bartlett et al. 2009) U.S. Department of Energy Solar Energy Technologies Program Slide 10

11 PV module price declines from 2008 to 2009 More recent estimates have indicated even lower module prices Currently: $ $ forecast: $1.60 PV Module ASP ($/W-dc) $4.50 $4.00 $3.50 $3.00 $2.50 $2.00 $1.50 $1.00 $0.50 $ E ASP 2009E ASP Estimate Change -$ Year Global average PV module prices, from surveys of industry analysts in Q and Q (Bartlett et al. 2009) U.S. Department of Energy Solar Energy Technologies Program Slide 11

12 The U.S. is rich in solar investments to continue cost reductions and technology improvements The US is the most diversified in solar technologies receiving VC and PE financing, with substantial investment in thin film PV, as well as CPV and CSP In Europe, most of the funding has been to polysilicon, c- Si PV and project developers In Asia, most of the investment has gone to c- Si PV Millions of $ $3,000 $2,500 $2,000 $1,500 $1,000 $500 $0 VC & PE Solar Investments by Region and Technology Thin Film PV Solar Heating & Cooling Project Developer Polysilicon Other Next Generation PV Multijunction Manufacturing Equipment Inverters CSP Crystalline Silicon PV CPV Number of Transactions *EU includes Israel, Morocco, & South Africa **U.S. includes Australia and Canada Asia EU* US** Region / Year Source: New Energy Finance 0 Number of Transactions U.S. Department of Energy Solar Energy Technologies Program Slide 12

13 Non-government U.S. investment in solar has grown enormously over the past five years Between 2004 and 2008, investments in the form of Venture Capital/Private Equity, Debt and Public Equity have grown by over 100% per year on average, reaching almost $4 billion 2008 $4, % $ in Millions $4,000 $3,500 $3,000 $2,500 $2,000 $1,500 $1,000 Total Investment Increase 49% CAGR % CAGR % CAGR Solar M&A Activity U.S. Government R&D VC & PE Investments Solar Debt Solar Public Equity Activity US Government R&D as a % of Total Investment 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% $500 10% $0 0% Year * Excluding project finance investments Sources: New Energy Finance, DOE U.S. Capital Investments in Solar Energy U.S. Department of Energy Solar Energy Technologies Program Slide 13

14 Thank You Contact Information: John Bartlett Financial Analyst Phone: Sign up for SETP quarterly newsletter by ing: U.S. Department of Energy Solar Energy Technologies Program Slide 14