SECTORAL TRENDS: Performance of the primary and secondary sectors of the South African economy

Transcription

1 SECTORAL TRENDS: Performance of the primary and secondary sectors of the South African economy 31 March 214 Department of Research and Information

2 Contents Performance of the primary and secondary sectors 1 Physical volume of production 1 Production capacity utilisation 2 Employment Selected trade trends 7 Trade balance 7 Composition of trade 7 Regional trade 9 with major regions or regional blocs 11 Performance of the primary and secondary sub-sectors: statistical synopsis Agriculture, forestry and fishing 13 Total mining 14 - Coal mining 15 - Gold and uranium mining 16 - Other mining 17 Total manufacturing 18 - Food 19 - Beverages 2 - Textiles 21 - Wearing apparel 22 - Leather and leather products 23 - Footwear 24 - Wood and wood products 25 - Paper and paper products 26 - Printing, publishing and recorded media 27 - Coke and refined petroleum products 28 - Basic chemicals 29 - Other chemicals and man-made fibres 3 - Rubber products 31 - Plastic products 32 - Glass and glass products 33 - Non-metallic mineral products 34 - Basic iron and steel 35 - Basic non-ferrous metallic products 36 - Metal products excluding machinery 37 - Machinery and equipment 38 - Electrical machinery 39 - Television, radio and communication equipment 4 - Professional and scientific equipment 41 - Motor vehicles, parts and accessories 42 - Other transport equipment 43 - Furniture 44 - Other manufacturing 45 Acronyms, notes and data sources 46

3 Performance of the primary and secondary sectors Introduction Global economic activity strengthened in the second half of, primarily as a result of improved performances by the world s advanced economies, particularly the United States of America, while the Eurozone emerged from the longest recession since its inception. Consequently, several emerging and developing economies benefited from relatively stronger demand for their export products in the latter half of the year. World output expanded by 3% in as a whole (3.1% in ), supported by 1.3% growth in the advanced economies (1.4% in ) and 4.7% (4.9%) in the case of emerging markets and developing economies as a group. Economic performances in the latter grouping varied substantially at the individual country level. s economy expanded by 7.7%, substantially slower than the double-digit rates of expansion recorded over the past decade and unchanged relative to. While India managed to raise its growth to 4.4% in, economic expansion in Brazil was again modest and both Mexico and Russia experienced substantial decelerations. In contrast, Sub-Saharan Africa elevated its growth rate to a robust 5.1%, supported by rising global demand for the region s exports, higher foreign direct investment inflows and internal consumption. South Africa s gross domestic product (GDP) recorded an uninspiring 1.9% growth in, down from 2.5% in. Relatively weak global demand for export products and unfavourable commodity prices were amongst the external contributing factors, but the domestic economic climate also proved quite challenging. Supply-side disruptions, mostly but not exclusively due to prolonged industrial action related production stoppages in segments of the export-oriented mining and manufacturing sectors (particularly the automotive industry during the third quarter of ), aggravated an operating environment characterised by more subdued household spending and relatively modest fixed investment activity locally, and difficult market conditions abroad. Physical volume of production The physical volume of production of the agriculture, forestry and fishing sector (hereafter referred to as agriculture ) as well as manufacturing increased very modestly in, by 2.3% and 1.4% respectively. South Africa s mining sector has been affected by slower rates of increase in world demand for commodities, largely due to decelerating economic growth and moderating fixed investment activity in, which have historically been very resourceintensive, coupled with increased competition in global supply markets. Domestically, protracted industrial action, reduced electricity supply to key players and occasional disruptions, rising costs, and perennial technical difficulties in segments such as gold mining, have added to the mining sector s misfortunes. Nonetheless, the physical volume of production in the mining sector increased by 4.2% in, although varied performances were recorded at the sub-sector level. Physical volume of production change in the primary and secondary sectors Average for compared to the average (seasonally adjusted) Agriculture, forestry & fishing * Total mining Other mining (58.6) Gold & uranium mining (17.7) Coal mining (23.7) Total manufacturing Leather & leather products (.2) Basic non-ferrous metal products (3.5) Television, radio & communication equipment (.8) Footwear (.5) Other chemicals & man-made fibres (7.4) Food (15.7) Electrical machinery & apparatus (2.4) Beverages (6.4) Basic iron & steel products (4.4) Basic chemicals (5.8) Glass & glass products (.8) Wearing apparel (1.7) Paper & paper products (3.2) Non-metallic mineral products (4.1) Metal products (excl machinery) (5.7) Plastic products (2.7) Wood & wood products (2.5) Printing, publishing & recorded media (3.6) Other manufacturing (2.3) Other transport equipment (1.2) Furniture (.9) Machinery & equipment (6.7) Coke & refined petroleum products (8.) Rubber products (1.2) Textiles (1.1) Motor vehicles, parts & accessories (6.7) Professional & scientific equipment (.5) Figures in brackets refer to the sub-sector's percentage share in mining/manufacturing production in the fourth quarter of -15% -1% -5% % 5% 1 % 15 % * Real value added March 214 IDC Research and Information Sectoral Trends 1

4 Performance of the primary and secondary sectors The output of key segments such as platinum group metals and gold mining rebounded in, albeit from very low bases. This was in spite of protracted industrial action seriously disrupting platinum mining activity. In contrast, the iron ore mining segment posted sharply lower growth and production volumes in the coal mining industry contracted last year. Several manufacturing sub-sectors reported output gains in, with the relatively small leather and leather products sub-sector (.2% of broad manufacturing sector production in of ) registering the strongest positive growth at 12.5%, followed by the much larger basic non-ferrous metal products sub-sector at 11.5%. The positive performance of these sub-sectors was largely supported by higher domestic consumption and increased demand from the African continent, particularly Sub-Saharan Africa. In contrast, production volumes contracted in eleven manufacturing sub-sectors. A wide range of adverse factors have been at play, including disruptive industrial action, insufficient demand in external and/or domestic markets, as well as serious competitiveness challenges at local firm level due to rising input costs, skills shortages, productivity issues and inadequate power supply, among others. Substantial output losses were recorded by the small professional and scientific equipment sub-sector and by the sizeable motor vehicles, parts and accessories sub-sector, which accounted for 6.7% of the broad manufacturing sector s output in the fourth quarter of. Protracted industrial action in the automotive industry during the third quarter of the year resulted in serious production stoppages. For the year as a whole, output volumes increased by a marginal.3% in the case of the motor vehicles industry, while the parts and accessories segment reported a 5.4% contraction. This performance in turn impacted on the sub-sector s export performance. Production capacity utilisation Utilisation of production capacity in manufacturing declined by.1 percentage points in the closing quarter of, on a year-on-year basis, to 84%. Increased output levels in the leather and leather products sub-sector were reflected in a sharp increase in production capacity utilisation, by 5.9 percentage points to 75.5%. The furniture subsector recorded the highest utilisation of production capacity at 91.9%, as well as the largest increase on an annual basis (1.8 percentage points). Increased capacity utilisation in the textiles subsector reflects the continued shrinkage of its productive capacity since its output fell in. The largest declines in capacity utilisation were recorded in the other manufacturing, glass and glass products, as well as rubber products subsectors, with the former decreasing by 8 percentage points and the latter two by 6.7 percentage points. Nevertheless, production capacity utilisation remained above 85% in each of these three subsectors, or just above the broad manufacturing sector average. Manufacturing: Change in the production capacity utilisation Fourth quarter of compared to the fourth quarter of Total manufacturing (84.) Leather & leather products (75.5) Non-metallic mineral products (81.2) Beverages (86.3) Basic chemicals (88.3) Other manufacturing (85.7) Textiles (74.3) Electrical machinery & apparatus (82.9) Motor vehicles, parts & accessories (87.) Basic iron & steel products (77.6) Other transport equipment (81.7) Paper & paper products (88.7) Basic non-ferrous metal products (81.4) Other chemicals & man-made fibres (84.) Wood & wood products (84.6) Coke & refined petroleum products (84.6) Footwear (88.6) Machinery & equipment (84.5) Food (83.5) Plastic products (86.6) Furniture (91.9) Professional & scientific equipment (87.8) Television, radio & communication equipment (86.1) Metal products (excl machinery) (78.1) Printing, publishing & recorded media (81.5) Wearing apparel (81.7) Rubber products (85.3) Glass & glass products (86.8) Figures in brackets refer to the sub-sector's average production capacity utilisation during the fourth quarter of Percentage points March 214 IDC Research and Information Sectoral Trends 2

5 Performance of the primary and secondary sectors The impact of industrial action in the motor vehicles, parts and accessories sub-sector during the third quarter of was still being felt in the fourth quarter s capacity utilisation at 87%, or 2.6 percentage points lower than in the same period in. Furthermore, its strong linkages with other key sectors of the economy are illustrated by the knock-on effects on the glass and glass products sub-sector, among several others. Sub-sectors of manufacturing with high but declining utilisation rates included motor vehicles, parts and accessories, as well as footwear. However, in the latter instance it is most likely that overall productive capacity expanded in, since capacity utilisation fell by.8 percentage points in the year to the fourth quarter to 88.6%, but production volumes increased by just over 5% over the course of the year. Sub-sectors with high and increasing utilisation rates included paper and paper products (88.7%,.6 percentage point increase), as well as basic chemicals (88.3%, 2.6 percentage point increase). Employment The increase in public sector employment recorded in offset the marginal losses reported by the private sector. Consequently, the unemployment rate fell to 24.1%, the lowest in eight quarters. However, large-scale employment creation in the private sector is imperative to make meaningful and sustainable dents on South Africa s massive unemployment challenge over time. Formal employment change in the primary and secondary sectors Fourth quarter of compared to the fourth quarter of Agriculture, forestry & fishing* Employment levels in the agriculture, forestry and fishing sector in the fourth quarter of were.7% lower compared to the same quarter in. Total mining** Coal mining** (17.6) Other mining** (57.6) Gold & uranium mining** (24.7) Total manufacturing Footwear (1.) Television, radio & communication equipment (.7) Machinery & equipment (1.5) Other chemicals & man-made fibres (4.4) Beverages (3.3) Other transport equipment (1.3) Coke & refined petroleum products (2.5) Metal products (excl machinery) (9.2) Paper & paper products (2.7) Food (15.3) Electrical machinery & apparatus (3.4) Rubber products (1.) Glass & glass products (.8) Textiles (2.8) Non-metallic mineral products (4.2) Other manufacturing (3.6) Wearing apparel (4.1) Professional & scientific equipment (.8) Leather & leather products (.4) Wood & wood products (3.1) Basic non-ferrous metal products (1.6) Basic chemicals (1.6) Motor vehicles, parts & accessories (7.4) Basic iron & steel products (4.) Printing, publishing & recorded media (4.3) Plastic products (3.2) Furniture (2.8) Figures in brackets refer to the sub-sector's percentage share in mining/manufacturing employment in the fourth quarter of -2% -15% -1% -5% % 5% 1 % 15 % 2 % 25 % * Including formal and informal employment ** Mining employment data based on DMR employment data The mining sector recorded 14 3 job losses in the year to the fourth quarter of, or 2.3% of total mining employment. Despite declining production volumes, the coal mining sub-sector expanded its workforce by 3.7% or almost 3 2 employees. A recovery in the international prices of thermal coal and higher demand requirements underpin improved prospects for the sub-sector. Facing more subdued external demand and continued labour-related disruptions on the production front, the other mining sub-sector, which includes the platinum group metals (PGMs) and iron ore mining segments, shed some jobs or 1.1% of other mining employment in the last quarter of, compared to the same period a year earlier. Although the PGMs segment has not yet concluded some of the large scale lay-offs announced, its workforce shrunk by 1 32 in the year to the fourth quarter of. Iron ore miners reduced their workforce by almost 2 over this period. Despite the increase in gold mining production over the course of, again off a low base, this sub-sector recorded the largest decline in employment, by 11.6% or 16 3 workers. Employment in the manufacturing sector contracted marginally by.2% in the fourth quarter of relative to the corresponding period one year earlier. March 214 IDC Research and Information Sectoral Trends 3

6 Performance of the primary and secondary sectors Governmental support policies and development funding assistance aimed at improving the competitiveness of and increasing the demand base for the domestic textiles, clothing and footwear sub-sectors appear to be bearing fruit. The footwear industry registered the largest percentage increase in employment as its production capacity expanded and output volumes rose over the course of. In turn, job-shedding in the textiles and clothing sub-sectors is seemingly slowing. The food processing industry and the machinery and equipment sub-sector, which are the largest employers within the broad manufacturing sector (their shares of manufacturing employment stood at 15.3% and 1.5%, respectively, in the fourth quarter of ), registered job gains during the period under review. In contrast, sizeable employers such as the motor vehicles, parts and accessories sub-sector (7.4% of manufacturing employment in the fourth quarter of ) and the basic iron and steel industry (4%) recorded substantially lower employment levels. Both sub-sectors are facing difficult trading conditions and fierce competition in their respective markets, aggravated by production disruptions due to industrial action in the automotive industry. South Africa s merchandise exports (excluding trade with the BLNS countries 1 ) grew strongly in rand value terms in, in tandem with rising world trade and assisted by a sharply depreciating currency. values in the agriculture, forestry and fishing sector increased by a solid 32%, with maize, apples, grapes and wine exported to Europe and Zimbabwe being the key drivers. Mining sector exports rose by almost 1% in value terms in, despite challenges both on the domestic and external fronts, particularly production disruptions, falling prices and rising costs. Export growth was led by the other mining subsector, which is dominated by PGMs and iron ore. Increased export volumes posted by the PGMs and diamond mining segments, alongside a weakening exchange rate, underpinned the strong export performance of the other mining sub-sector in value terms. Despite near-record coal exports in, the value of coal mining exports contracted by 2.7% compared to. Rain and labour unrest disrupted mining and transportation activities early in the year, while weak prices eroded the gains associated with a weaker exchange rate and higher volumes exported. Export value growth in the primary and secondary sectors comapred to Agriculture, forestry & fishing Total mining Other mining (64.5) Coal mining (16.6) Gold & uranium mining (18.9) Total manufacturing Leather & leather products (.4) Basic non-ferrous metal products (6.2) Television, radio & communication equipment (1.1) Beverages (2.9) Food (6.3) Other transport equipment (1.3) Textiles (.8) Wearing apparel (.3) Glass & glass products (.3) Paper & paper products (3.1) Printing, publishing & recorded media (.2) Non-metallic mineral products (.6) Machinery & equipment (7.3) Plastic products (.9) Other manufacturing (7.3) Other chemicals & man-made fibres (4.6) Footwear (.1) Basic chemicals (8.5) Basic iron & steel products (13.8) Electrical machinery & apparatus (2.) Motor vehicles, parts & accessories (21.7) Wood & wood products (.7) Furniture (.7) Rubber products (.8) Metal products (excl machinery) (2.7) Professional & scientific equipment (1.) Coke & refined petroleum products (4.3) Figures in brackets refer to the sub-sector's percentage share in mining/manufacturing exports in -2% -1% % 1 % 2 % 3 % 4 % 5 % 6 % 7 % 1 SARS recently changed the methodology of reporting South Africa s trade statistics to include the country s trade with the other member states of the Southern African Customs Union (SACU) - the so called BLNS countries (Botswana, Lesotho, Namibia and Swaziland). Previously, South Africa s trade with the rest of the world excluded the trade with the other SACU members. The analysis in this report is, however, still based on the previous methodology as it relies on HS8 level data, which is yet to be released by SARS under the new methodology. March 214 IDC Research and Information Sectoral Trends 4

7 Performance of the primary and secondary sectors Despite an increased volume of production, the value of gold exports declined in relative to the previous year as the gold price came under pressure, offsetting the gains from a weakening exchange rate. The overall value of the manufacturing sector s exports rose by 13.4% in, as most of its sub-sectors reported increases. The three exceptions were the coke and refined petroleum, metal products, as well as professional and scientific equipment sub-sectors. The largest contributors to manufacturing exports, namely the motor vehicles, parts and accessories sub-sector (claiming 21.7% of total manufacturing sector exports in ), the basic iron and steel industry (13.8% share) and the basic chemicals sub-sector (8.5% share) posted reasonable increases in export values at 9.4%, 1.4% and 11.4%, respectively. Collectively, these three subsectors accounted for 44% of overall manufactured exports by value in. The performance of the motor vehicle, parts and accessories sub-sector for the full year should be considered in the light of its achievements in the first half of, when exports were 23% higher compared to the same period in. The third quarter of the year, on the other hand, was characterised by intense industrial action in this industry, with adverse implications for the second semester s export performance. The basic non-ferrous metals sub-sector, which is a significant contributor to manufacturing exports (6.2% of the total), recorded a laudable 38% increase in export values last year. The strong production performance of the leather and leather products sub-sector was partly driven by its ability to penetrate global markets, as its exports increased by 65.5% in. The value of agriculture, forestry and fishing sector related imports declined marginally in relative to the previous year, albeit from a high base. Although South Africa has historically been a selfsufficient food producer thanks to a robust agricultural sector and an extensive coastline that is relatively rich in fisheries resources, its reliance on imported agricultural products has risen in recent years. Prominent agricultural imports include cereals, dominated by wheat and rice. The value of overall mining related imports increased by 9.7% in as the cost of crude oil (classified under other mining ) in rand terms increased significantly. of gold and coal are relatively small and can experience massive swings on small changes in values. Imported manufactured goods represent the largest component of the country s import basket. Their value rose by 18.4% in, with the importintensity of fixed investment activity in South Africa as the underlying reason. Infrastructural and other forms of capital expenditure in the country s electricity sector, both conventional and renewable energy, was clearly reflected in the strong increase Import value growth in the primary and secondary sectors comapred to Agriculture, forestry & fishing Total mining Coal mining (1.7) Other mining (98.3) Gold & uranium mining (.) Total manufacturing Electrical machinery & apparatus (4.9) Basic iron & steel products (2.5) Television, radio & communication equipment (6.6) Metal products (excl machinery) (2.4) Wearing apparel (2.1) Beverages (.7) Leather & leather products (.4) Coke & refined petroleum products (8.1) Plastic products (1.5) Paper & paper products (1.3) Rubber products (1.5) Professional & scientific equipment (3.2) Basic non-ferrous metal products (1.9) Footwear (1.2) Non-metallic mineral products (1.1) Other chemicals & man-made fibres (7.4) Motor vehicles, parts & accessories (18.) Printing, publishing & recorded media (.4) Furniture (.7) Machinery & equipment (18.2) Textiles (1.5) Wood & wood products (.4) Basic chemicals (5.2) Glass & glass products (.3) Food (5.3) Other manufacturing (1.5) Other transport equipment (1.7) Figures in brackets refer to the sub-sector's percentage share in mining/manufacturing imports in -2% -1% % 1 % 2 % 3 % 4 % 5 % in imports of electrical machinery and equipment, basic iron and steel products, as well as metal products (excluding machinery). March 214 IDC Research and Information Sectoral Trends % 135.2%

8 Performance of the primary and secondary sectors Television, radio and communication equipment was among the fastest growing import categories, accompanying network upgrades and expansions by telecommunications companies, as well as growing demand for smart cell-phones. The two largest categories of manufactured imports, namely motor vehicles, parts and accessories, together with machinery and equipment, jointly accounted for over 36% of total manufactured imports in and recorded strong increases in import values last year. The importation of wearing apparel and furniture continued to grow at a rapid pace, illustrating the extent to which local manufacturers are facing competition from foreign producers in the domestic market. The value of imports associated with the other transport equipment sub-sector declined in, largely due to lower imports of spare parts for aircraft in rand terms. The uncertainty surrounding fishing licences also impacted on the importation of fishing vessels, which declined significantly last year. March 214 IDC Research and Information Sectoral Trends 6

9 Selected trade trends Trade balance South Africa s trade 2 (i.e. exports plus imports) with the rest of the world increased by 14.7% in nominal rand value terms in. The country s trade deficit widened by a further R5.8 billion to R183.1 billion, as the increase in merchandise import values (16.6% SA trade balance or R138 billion) continued to outpace the ZAR billion per quarter (current values) 3 corresponding rise in exports (12.4% or R87.2 billion) over the course of the year. Although a weaker rand may be expected to improve the relative price competitiveness of exports in world markets and provide some protection vis-à-vis imports in local markets, various factors are at play. These include subdued demand in key global markets (e.g. Eurozone) and the performance of other currencies in competing export-oriented economies, which may limit the export growth potential. Furthermore, the sharp depreciation of the rand in adversely affected the trade balance by raising the rand value of essential imports. The value of exports grew by 15.1% in the fourth quarter of, on quarter-on-quarter, while import values increased by 13.4%. Trade balance Composition of trade ZAR billion per quarter (current values) Capital goods Intermediate goods SA exports by broad economic classification Consumption goods Raw materials South Africa s exports to the world at large in consisted mainly of raw materials and intermediate goods, contributing 38.3% and 35.6% respectively to the overall export basket. These were followed by consumption goods (15.7% share) and capital goods (9.2% share). of raw materials, which increased by 15.5% to R31.5 billion, were the main contributors to the 12.4% growth in total exports in. Raw material exports were dominated by exports of unwrought platinum, iron ores, coal, manganese ores, chromium ores. These were destined largely for, Japan, India, the United States of America () and Switzerland. 2 SARS recently changed the methodology of reporting South Africa s trade statistics to include the country s trade with the other member states of the Southern African Customs Union (SACU) - the so called BLNS countries (Botswana, Lesotho, Namibia and Swaziland). Previously, South Africa s trade with the rest of the world excluded the trade with the other SACU members. The analysis in this report is, however, still based on the previous methodology as it relies on HS8 level data, which is yet to be released by SARS under the new methodology. March 214 IDC Research and Information Sectoral Trends 7

10 Selected trade trends of intermediate goods rose by 7.2% in to R28.5 billion, with growth driven mainly by exports of ferro-alloys; unwrought aluminium; nickel bars, rods, profiles and wire; chemical wood pulp, dissolving grades; as well as nickel matte, interim products of nickel metallurgy. The principal export destinations included the,, Zambia, Mozambique and. Consumption goods exports grew by 17.4% last year to R123.7 billion. The dominant exports in this category were passenger vehicles (except buses), refined petroleum products, citrus fruit and grapes and grape wines. The principal markets for South Africa s consumption goods exports in were the, the Netherlands, Mozambique,, and the United Kingdom (). of capital goods, in turn, expanded by 9.2% to R72.9 billion. The leading exports in this category in were vehicles for the transportation of goods, centrifuges (catalytic converters), electrical apparatus for line telephony, self-propelled earth moving machines, mineral sorting machinery. The fourth quarter of was charaterised by declines in the export of consumption goods (-8.2% quarter-onquarter) and raw materials (-.8%), while exports of intermediate goods and capital goods exports increased by 2.9% and.5%, respectively. of intermediate goods, which represented 37% of South Africa s import basket in, increased by R55.7 billion to R358.6 billion. The 16.6% growth in the overall value of imports last year was heavily driven by rising import demand for intermediate goods, primarily original equipment components; diodes, transistors, semi-conductors, etc.; aluminium oxide; flat-rolled alloyed steel; and parts for use in lifting or moving machinery. The leading sources of imports of intermediate goods in were Asia (mainly, Japan and Thailand), the European Union (primarily ), and the. ZAR billion per quarter (current values) SA imports by broad economic classification Capital goods Intermediate goods Consumption goods Raw materials of consumption goods, which grew by 2.8% to R246 billion in, consisted largely of refined petroleum products; vehicles for the transportation of persons (except buses); medicaments for therapeutic and prophylactic use; rice; and unrecorded sound recording media. These were sourced mainly from Asia (mostly, India and Singapore), and Europe (largely and the ). Capital goods imports also recorded strong growth (15.6%) in and were primarily imported from Asia (mostly and Japan), the EU (mainly and the ), and the. Growth in capital goods imports was mainly influenced by the higher demand for: electric apparatus for line telephony; electric generating sets and rotary converters; automatic data processing machines (computers); electrical machinery and apparatus; and electric transformers, static converters and rectifiers. of raw materials increased by 8.2% last year, with the following categories contributing the lion s share of such growth: crude oil; coal, briquettes; precious metal ores and concentrates; sunflower seeds; as well as seeds, fruit and spores for sowing. Raw materials imports in originated mostly from the Middle East (primarily Saudi Arabia) and the rest of Africa (mainly Nigeria, Angola, Ghana and Mozambique). March 214 IDC Research and Information Sectoral Trends 8

11 Selected trade trends In the fourth quarter of, imports declined on a quarter-on-quarter basis in all four categories, led by intermediate goods (-13.3%, compared to the third quarter of ), capital goods (-4.4%), consumption goods (-2.5%) and raw materials (-.4%). Regional trade Asia maintained its position as the leading regional destination for South Africa s exports in, with its share of the export basket rising to 32.9% (a 1.5 percentage point increase relative to ) or R259 billion. Total exports to the Asia region expanded by 17.6% last year, driven mainly by increasing demand from, Japan, Taiwan Asia EU Africa NAFTA Europe (excl. EU) Middle East Other Americas Oceania Asia EU Middle East Africa NAFTA Other Americas Europe (excl. EU) Oceania SA trade per region Share of exports Share of imports % 5% 1% 15% 2% 25% 3% 35% 4% and Hong Kong, which together accounted for almost 68% of overall exports destined for Asia in. Leading export product categories included iron ore, platinum group metals, coal, non-ferrous metal ores other than gold, uranium and PGMs, as well as basic iron and steel. The share of South Africa s export basket destined for the EU increased marginally by.4 percentage points to 21%, or R165.2 billion, in. to the EU rose by 14.8% last year, driven mainly by exports to the Netherlands, the,, Belgium and France, which together accounted for 78.3% of exports destined for this regional bloc. The top export product categories sold in EU markets in included parts and accessories for motor vehicles, platinum group metals, motor vehicles, basic iron and steel, and agricultural products such as cereals and other crops. The share of South Africa s export basket destined for the rest of the African continent (excluding the BLNS countries 3 ) rose by.8 percentage points to 18.3% in. to the continent, which increased by 17.7% last year to R144.2 billion, have been rising steadily in recent years. Export growth was mainly attributed to increased demand from Mozambique, Zambia, Zimbabwe, Kenya and Nigeria. The export basket was highly diversified, with the leading categories in being motor vehicles, basic iron and steel, refined petroleum products, machinery for mining, quarrying and construction; as well as agricultural products such as cereals and other crops. to NAFTA, which rose by 1.7% in, consisted mainly of motor vehicles, platinum group metals, basic iron and steel, basic chemicals, as well as parts and accessories for motor vehicles. Hence, NAFTA s share of South Africa s export basket declined by.9 percentage points last year to 9%. Export growth to other regions in was as follows: European region outside of the EU - a 41.8% increase; Middle East (+13.7%); Other Americas, excluding NAFTA (+7.9%); and Oceania (+6.6%). While the European region outside of the EU saw its share of South Africa s exports rise by.8 percentage points to 3.8%, the Other Americas and Oceania regions witnessed very marginal contractions (.1 percentage points) in their respective shares to 1.6% and 1.2%, respectively. 3 The latest trade data released by SARS at broader chapter level include South Africa s trade with the BLNS countries. As such, the country s exports to the rest of Africa represented close to 29% of the total, compared to the 18% reflected in this report. As previously noted, this report is based on HS8 trade data, which has not yet been released by SARS under the new methodology. March 214 IDC Research and Information Sectoral Trends 9

12 Selected trade trends The shares claimed by Asia, the EU and the rest of Europe in South Africa s import basket rose in by 2.2,.5 and.2 percentage points, respectively, at the expense all other regional blocs. Overall import growth, at 16.6% in, was predominantly driven by rising imports sourced from Asia and the EU, with the two regions accounting for 82.3% of the this growth. The combined value of South Africa s imports from these regions amounted to R639.5 billion in. Import demand from Asia, which grew by 24% to R355.5 billion in, was mainly attributed to increased imports from (mainly television and radio transmitters, computing machinery, wearing apparel, footwear), India (largely refined petroleum products, motor vehicles, as well as pharmaceuticals, medicinal chemicals), Japan, Thailand and Singapore. Europe (excl. EU) Asia Africa EU Middle East Other Americas Oceania NAFTA Europe (excl. EU) Asia EU Oceania Africa Middle East Other Americas NAFTA SA trade growth by region compared to Export growth Import growth % 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% from the EU, which grew by 18.6% last year to R283.9 billion, were dominated by motor vehicles; parts and accessories for motor vehicles; pharmaceuticals and medicinal chemicals; certain other chemical products; and refined petroleum products. Increased imports from, Spain, Italy, and France represented the bulk of import growth from the EU. The 1.8% growth in imports sourced from the rest of Africa (excl. BLNS countries) to R9.1 billion in was attributable mostly to imports of crude oil, agricultural products, wearing apparel as well as basic precious and non-ferrous metals. sourced from Nigeria, Ghana, Equatorial Guinea, Mozambique and Gabon contributed the most to this growth. from the Middle East (mainly crude oil, refined petroleum products, fertilisers and nitrogenous compounds, as well as basic chemicals) increased by 6.1% in and originated mostly from Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Oman, Yemen and the United Arab Emirates. Trade balance by region South Africa maintained surplus positions in its balances of trade with the rest of Africa (excluding BLNS countries) and the European region outside of the EU over the period to. In, the trade surplus with the rest of the African continent increased by R12.8 billion to R53.4 billion, while the surplus recorded with Europe (excluding the EU) widened by R4.7 billion to R13.7 billion. Trade deficits were recorded with all other regions or regional blocs, with the largest negative balances pertaining to the European Union (the deficit widened by R23.4 billion in to R118.7 billion), Asia (R3.1 billion increase to R.5 billion) and the Middle East (deficit widened by R2.4 billion to R75.3 billion). The deficits in South Africa s trade with NAFTA and Oceania widened by R 1.1 billion and R.9 billion, respectively, in, but remained relatively low. The graphs in the following two pages illustrate in more detail the trend in South Africa s trade performance with each of the eight major regions or regional blocs over the past five years, as well as the leading traded product categories in. March 214 IDC Research and Information Sectoral Trends 1

13 with major regions or regional blocs SA trade balance with Africa 5 Trade balance Motor vehicles Basic iron & steel Petroleum refineries & synthesisers Mining & construction machinery Agriculture (cereals & other crops) Other goods Crude oil mining Petroleum refineries & synthesisers Agriculture (cereals & other crops) Basic precious & non-ferrous metals Mining of non-ferrous metal ores Top traded product categories: Other goods Share of exports Share of imports % 2% 4% 6% 8% SA trade balance with Asia 8 Trade balance Iron ore mining Platinum group metal mining Coal mining Mining of non-ferrous metal ores Basic iron & steel Other goods Petroleum refineries & synthesisers Motor vehicle parts & accessories TV & radio transmitters & telephony Motor vehicles Computers & office machinery Top traded product categories: Other goods Share of exports Share of imports % 15% 3% 45% 6% 75% SA trade balance with the Middle East 15 Trade balance Agriculture (cereals & other crops) Basic precious & non-ferrous metals Petroleum refineries & synthesisers Fertilisers & nitrogen compounds Plastics in primary form Top traded product categories: Coal mining Diamond mining Basic iron & steel Other goods Crude oil mining Basic chemicals Other goods Share of exports Share of imports % 15% 3% 45% 6% 75% SA trade balance with the EU 6 Trade balance Motor vehicle parts & accessories Platinum group metal mining Motor vehicles Basic iron & steel Agriculture (cereals & other crops) Other goods Motor vehicle parts & accessories Motor vehicles Medicinal chemicals Other chemical products, nec. Petroleum refineries & synthesisers Top traded product categories: Other goods Share of exports Share of imports % 15% 3% 45% 6% 75% March 214 IDC Research and Information Sectoral Trends 11

14 with major regions or regional blocs SA trade balance with Europe (excluding EU) 1 Trade balance Platinum group metal mining Jewellery & related articles Basic precious & non-ferrous metals Mining of non-ferrous metal ores Agriculture (cereals & other crops) Other goods Crude oil mining Agriculture (cereals & other crops) Medicinal chemicals Medical & surgical equipment, etc. Top traded product categories: Watches & clocks Other goods Share of exports Share of imports % 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% SA trade balance with NAFTA 25 Trade balance Motor vehicles Platinum group metal mining Basic iron & steel Basic chemicals Motor vehicle parts & accessories Other goods Motor vehicles Mining & construction machinery Basic chemicals Aircraft & spacecraft TV & radio transmitters & telephony Top traded product categories: Other goods Share of exports Share of imports % 15% 3% 45% 6% 75% SA trade balance with the Americas (excluding NAFTA) 6 Trade balance Motor vehicle parts & accessories Basic iron & steel Plastics in primary form Basic chemicals Coal mining Other goods Vegetable & animal oils & fats Motor vehicle parts & accessories Slaughtering, processing of meat Sugar refining Agriculture (cereals & other crops) Top traded product categories: Other goods Share of exports Share of imports % 15% 3% 45% 6% SA trade balance with Oceania 3 Trade balance Processing & preserving of fish Mining & construction machinery Processing & preserving of fruit & veg Basic precious & non-ferrous metals Coal mining Mining & construction machinery Agriculture (cereals & other crops) Top traded product categories: Motor vehicles Basic chemicals Other goods Pulp, paper & paperboard Other goods Share of exports Share of imports % 15% 3% 45% 6% March 214 IDC Research and Information Sectoral Trends 12

15 Real value added trend Real value added index (seasonally adjusted) 13 Real value added 126 Number (1 ) Total per quarter HS2 code 14 H8: Edible fruit, nuts, peel of citrus fruit, melons H1: Cereals H51: Wool, animal hair, horsehair yarn and fabric thereof H12: Oil seed, oleagic fruits, grain, seed, fruit, etc H7: Edible vegetables and certain roots and tubers Total (including others) H1: Cereals H9: Coffee, tea, mate and spices H4: Rubber and articles thereof H12: Oil seed, oleagic fruits, grain, seed, fruit, etc H8: Edible fruit, nuts, peel of citrus fruit, melons Total (including others) 13.3 compared to HS2 code: Sector description H8: Edible fruit, nuts, peel of citrus fruit, melons H1: Cereals H51: Wool, animal hair, horsehair yarn and fabric thereof H7: Edible vegetables and certain roots and tubers H9: Coffee, tea, mate and spices H12: Oil seed, oleagic fruits, grain, seed, fruit, etc H52: Cotton, yarn and woven fabric H24: Tobacco and manufactured tobacco substitutes H15: Animal,vegetable fats and oils, cleavage products, etc H45: Cork and articles of cork -.33 Russia Hong Kong UAE Japan Netherlands Russia Zimbabwe Indonesia Australia Brazil Ukraine % 5% 1% 15% 2% March 214 IDC Research and Information Sectoral Trends 13

16 Production trend average Production index (seasonally adjusted) Number (1 ) Total per quarter HS2 code H71: Natural or cultured pearls, precious stones and metals H26: Ores, slag and ash H27: Coal, petroleum and petroleum products H25: Salt, sulphur, earth, stone, plaster, lime and cement Total (including others) H27: Coal, petroleum and petroleum products H71: Natural or cultured pearls, precious stones and metals H26: Ores, slag and ash H25: Salt, sulphur, earth, stone, plaster, lime and cement Total (including others) compared to HS2 code: Sector description H26: Ores, slag and ash Netherlands H71: Natural or cultured pearls, precious stones and metals Switzerland India Japan H27: Coal, petroleum and petroleum products H25: Salt, sulphur, earth, stone, plaster, lime and cement Australia UAE Mozambique Ghana Angola Nigeria Saudi Arabia % 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% March 214 IDC Research and Information Sectoral Trends 14

17 Production trend average Production index (seasonally adjusted) Number (1 ) Total per quarter H271: Coal, briquettes, ovoids etc, made from coal H273: Peat (including peat litter) 1.12 H272: Lignite, except jet Total (including others) H271: Coal, briquettes, ovoids etc, made from coal H273: Peat (including peat litter) H272: Lignite, except jet Total (including others) compared to : Sector description Pakistan Turkey Israel Taiwan Netherlands H271: Coal, briquettes, ovoids etc, made from coal India H272: Lignite, except jet France H273: Peat (including peat litter) -.44 Vietnam Russia New Zealand Mozambique Australia % 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% March 214 IDC Research and Information Sectoral Trends 15

18 Production trend average Production index (seasonally adjusted) Number (1 ) Largest gold producing countries Total per quarter Tonnes 371 Australia 258 United States 232 Russia 212 South Africa 198 Total production (including others) Largest gold reserve base 29 South Africa 6 Australia 5 8 Russia 5 Indonesia 3 United States 3 Total reserve base (including others) 47 * Data related to export destinations are not published March 214 IDC Research and Information Sectoral Trends 16

19 Production trend average Production index (seasonally adjusted) Number (1 ) Total per quarter H711: Platinum, unwrought, semi-manufactured H261: Iron ores and concentrates, roasted iron pyrites H262: Manganese ores, iron ores >2% Manganese H261: Chromium ores and concentrates H712: Diamonds, not mounted or set Total (including others) H279: Petroleum oils, oils from bituminous minerals, crude H712: Diamonds, not mounted or set H2711: Petroleum gases & other gaseous hydrocarbons H2616: Precious metal ores and concentrates H261: Iron ores and concentrates, roasted iron pyrites Total (including others) compared to : Sector description H711: Platinum, unwrought, semi-manufactured H261: Iron ores and concentrates, roasted iron pyrites Hong Kong H262: Manganese ores, iron ores >2% Manganese Switzerland H261: Chromium ores and concentrates H2615: Niobium tantalum vanadium zirconium ores, etc Japan H2614: Titanium ores and concentrates H2617: Ores and concentrates, nes Zimbabwe H2529: Natural fluorine minerals UAE H2516: Granite, porphyry, basalt, sandstone, etc Mozambique H712: Diamonds, not mounted or set Ghana Angola Nigeria Saudi Arabia % 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% March 214 IDC Research and Information Sectoral Trends 17

20 average Production index (seasonally adjusted) (%) Number (1 ) Total per quarter HS2 code H87: Vehicles, parts and accessories H72: Iron and steel H84: Machinery and equipment, mechanical appliances H27: Coal, petroleum and petroleum products H76: Aluminium and articles thereof Total (including others) H84: Machinery and equipment, mechanical appliances H85: Electrical machinery and electronic equipment H87: Vehicles, parts and accessories H27: Coal, petroleum and petroleum products H98: Original equipment components for the motor vehicle industry Total (including others) compared to HS2 code: Sector description H87: Vehicles, parts and accessories Japan H72: Iron and steel Mozambique H84: Machinery and equipment, mechanical appliances Zimbabwe H76: Aluminium and articles thereof Zambia H22: Beverages, spirits and vinegar H15: Animal,vegetable fats and oils, cleavage products, etc H28: Inorganic chemicals, precious metal compound, isotopes Thailand H27: Coal, petroleum and petroleum products H9: Optical, photographic, measuring and medical equipment Japan H4: Rubber and articles thereof India % 5% 1% 15% 2% March 214 IDC Research and Information Sectoral Trends 18

21 average Production index (seasonally adjusted) (%) Number (1 ) Total per quarter H171: Solid cane/ beet sugar & chemically pure sucrose H29: Fruit and vegetable juices, not fermented/ spirited H28: Fruit, edible plant parts nes, prepared/preserved H412: Raw skins of sheep or lambs H216: Food preparations, nes Total (including others) H16: Rice H27: Meat, edible offal of domestic poultry H234: Soya-bean oil-cake and other solid residues H1511: Palm oil and its fractions, not chemically modified 3.4 H157: Soya-bean oil, fractions, not chemically modified Total (including others) compared to : Sector description H171: Solid cane/ beet sugar & chemically pure sucrose H412: Raw skins of sheep or lambs Japan H29: Fruit and vegetable juices, not fermented/ spirited Italy Zambia H113: Cereal grouts, meal and pellets Angola H28: Fruit, edible plant parts nes, prepared/preserved Mozambique H231: Flour etc of meat, fish or offal for animal feed Zimbabwe H157: Soya-bean oil, fractions, not chemically modified Indonesia H1512: Safflower, sunflower & cotton-seed oil, fractions Netherlands H37: M olluscs India H154: Fish, marine mammal fat/oil not chemically modified Brazil Thailand Argentina % 5% 1% 15% 2% March 214 IDC Research and Information Sectoral Trends 19

22 average Production index (seasonally adjusted) (%) Number (1 ) Total per quarter H224: Grape wines (including fortified), grape must H228: Liqueur, spirits & undenatured ethyl alcohol <8% H227: Ethyl alcohol, undenatured and > 8%, /denatured H222: Waters, non-alcoholic flavoured beverages H226: Fermented beverages (eg cider, perry, mead) Total (including others) H228: Liqueur, spirits & undenatured ethyl alcohol <8% H117: M alt H222: Waters, non-alcoholic flavoured beverages H224: Grape wines (including fortified), grape must H223: Beer made from malt Total (including others) compared to : Sector description H224: Grape wines (including fortified), grape must Angola H228: Liqueur, spirits & undenatured ethyl alcohol <8% Netherlands H222: Waters, non-alcoholic flavoured beverages France Sweden H227: Ethyl alcohol, undenatured and > 8%, /denatured H223: Beer made from malt H117: M alt H225: Vermouth and other flavoured grape wine Netherlands H221: Unsweetened beverage waters, ice and snow -.69 Ireland Australia France Italy % 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% March 214 IDC Research and Information Sectoral Trends 2

23 average Production index (seasonally adjusted) (%) Number (1 ) Total per quarter H515: Wool and animal hair, carded or combed H636: Textile tarpaulin, sail, awning, tent, camping goods H563: Nonwoven textiles, except felt H9619: Sanitary towels and tampons, napkins and napkin liners for babies H511: Wool, not carded or combed Total (including others) H547: Woven synth filament yarn, monofilament >67dtex H9619: Sanitary towels and tampons, napkins and napkin liners for babies H563: Nonwoven textiles, except felt H632: Bed, table, toilet and kitchen linens H5513: Woven fabric>85% synt+cotn<17g/m2 unb/blchd Total (including others) compared to : Sector description H515: Wool and animal hair, carded or combed H9619: Sanitary towels and tampons, napkins and napkin liners for babies Mozambique H636: Textile tarpaulin, sail, awning, tent, camping goods H593: Fabric impregnated, coated/ covered with plastic 4.4 Zambia H511: Wool, not carded or combed Zimbabwe H585: Hand-woven & needle-worked tapestries, kit sets Italy H531: Woven fabric of jute or other bast fibres of Taiwan H528: Woven cotton fabric, >85% cotton, < 2g/m H591: Transmission or conveyor belts or belting of textile Poland H529: Woven cotton nes, >85% cotton, >2g/m2-2.3 India Pakistan % 5% 1% 15% 2% 25% 3% 35% 4% 45% March 214 IDC Research and Information Sectoral Trends 21

24 average Production index (seasonally adjusted) (%) Number (1 ) Total per quarter H623: Mens or boys suits, jackets, trousers, etc not knit H6115: Panty hose, tights, hosiery nes, knit or crochet H613: M ens, boys suits,jackets,trousers, etc knit/crochet H619: T-shirts, singlets and other vests, knit or crochet H6211: Track suits, ski suits & swimwear, other garments Total (including others) H623: Mens or boys suits, jackets, trousers, etc not knit H624: Woven female suits, jacket, dress, etc 12.2 H619: T-shirts, singlets and other vests, knit or crochet H611: Jerseys, pullovers, cardigans, etc, knit or crochet H625: Men's or boys' shirts Total (including others) compared to : Sector description H623: Mens or boys suits, jackets, trousers, etc not knit 44.6 DRC H613: M ens, boys suits,jackets,trousers, etc knit/crochet 27.6 Angola H66: Other knitted or crocheted fabrics H6115: Panty hose, tights, hosiery nes, knit or crochet Mozambique H619: T-shirts, singlets and other vests, knit or crochet Zambia H65: Warp knit fabrics Zimbabwe H627: M ens, boys underwear,nightwear, unknit /crochet Turkey H6113: Garments of knit or crochet impregnated fabric Vietnam H6114: Garments, knit or crochet, nes Bangladesh H654: Hats,plaited,made by assembling strips of material -.76 India Madagascar Mauritius % 15% 3% 45% 6% 75% March 214 IDC Research and Information Sectoral Trends 22

25 average Production index (seasonally adjusted) (%) Number (1 ) Total per quarter H414: Bovine/equine leather, no hair, not chamois, patent H417: Leather of other animals, no hair, not chamois, etc H425: Articles of leather and composition leather, nes H416: Goat or kid skin leather, without hair H422: Trunks, suit-cases, camera cases, handbags, etc Total (including others) H422: Trunks, suit-cases, camera cases, handbags, etc H417: Leather of other animals, no hair, not chamois, etc H414: Bovine/equine leather, no hair, not chamois, patent H421: Saddlery and harness, of any material H4113: Composition leather, in slabs, sheets or strips Total (including others) compared to : Sector description H414: Bovine/equine leather, no hair, not chamois, patent Poland H417: Leather of other animals, no hair, not chamois, etc Vietnam H416: Goat or kid skin leather, without hair Thailand Hong Kong H425: Articles of leather and composition leather, nes Mexico H4113: Composition leather, in slabs, sheets or strips 2.61 H4114: Composition leather, in slabs, sheets or strips Italy H4112: Composition leather, in slabs, sheets or strips Vietnam H415: Sheep or lamb skin leather, without wool on Uruguay H4115: Composition leather, in slabs, sheets or strips -.24 Pakistan H9113: Watch straps, bands, bracelets, & parts thereof -.18 Italy Brazil India % 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% March 214 IDC Research and Information Sectoral Trends 23

26 average Production index (seasonally adjusted) (%) Number (1 ) Total per quarter H643: Footwear with uppers of leather H641: Waterproof footwear, rubber, plastic 7.91 H642: Footwear, with outer sole, upper rubber or plastic H644: Footwear with uppers of textile materials H645: Footwear nes, sole not leather, rubber or plastic Total (including others) H642: Footwear, with outer sole, upper rubber or plastic H644: Footwear with uppers of textile materials H643: Footwear with uppers of leather H645: Footwear nes, sole not leather, rubber or plastic H646: Parts of footwear, in-soles, heel cushion, etc Total (including others) compared to : Sector description H641: Waterproof footwear, rubber, plastic H643: Footwear with uppers of leather Malawi H645: Footwear nes, sole not leather, rubber or plastic 6.66 Angola DRC H646: Parts of footwear, in-soles, heel cushion, etc.99 Mozambique Zambia H642: Footwear, with outer sole, upper rubber or plastic Zimbabwe H644: Footwear with uppers of textile materials Cambodia Brazil India Italy Indonesia Vietnam % 15% 3% 45% 6% 75% March 214 IDC Research and Information Sectoral Trends 24

27 average Production index (seasonally adjusted) (%) Number (1 ) Total per quarter H441: Fuel wood, wood in chips/ particles, wood waste H4411: Fibreboard of wood or other ligneous materials H443: Wood in the rough or roughly squared H4418: Builders joinery and carpentry, of wood H441: Particle board, wood, ligneous material Total (including others) H447: Wood sawn, chipped lengthwise, sliced or peeled H4411: Fibreboard of wood or other ligneous materials H4412: Plywood, veneered panels, etc H4418: Builders joinery and carpentry, of wood H4416: Wooden casks, barrels, vats, tubs, etc Total (including others) compared to : Sector description H441: Fuel wood, wood in chips/ particles, wood waste Zambia H4415: Wooden cases, boxes, crates, drums, pallets, etc 21.4 Australia H447: Wood sawn, chipped lengthwise, sliced or peeled Zimbabwe H448: Veneers and sheets for plywood, etc <6mm thick 8.56 H442: Ornaments of wood, jewel, cutlery caskets, etc 8.7 Mozambique H442: Wood charcoal (including shell or nut charcoal) Japan H4411: Fibreboard of wood or other ligneous materials H4418: Builders joinery and carpentry, of wood France H441: Particle board, wood, ligneous material Indonesia H449: Wood continuously shaped along any edges Brazil Malaysia % 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% March 214 IDC Research and Information Sectoral Trends 25

28 average Production index (seasonally adjusted) (%) Number (1 ) Total per quarter 4 H472: Chemical wood pulp, dissolving grades H484: Uncoated kraft paper and paperboard H482: Uncoated paper for writing, printing office machin H473: Chemical wood pulp, soda/sulphate, undissolving H4819: Paper, board containers, packing items, box files Total (including others) H481: Paper, board, inorganic coated at least one side H4811: Paper, board, etc coated, impregnated, coloured H482: Uncoated paper for writing, printing office machin H484: Uncoated kraft paper and paperboard H473: Chemical wood pulp, soda/sulphate, undissolving Total (including others) compared to : Sector description H472: Chemical wood pulp, dissolving grades Thailand H484: Uncoated kraft paper and paperboard H4819: Paper, board containers, packing items, box files Italy Zimbabwe H4811: Paper, board, etc coated, impregnated, coloured India H4814: Wallpaper and similar wall coverings, etc of paper Indonesia H482: Uncoated paper for writing, printing office machin H4818: H.Hold, sanitary, hospital paper articles, clothing South Korea H476: Pulps of other fibrous cellulosic material Austria H488: Paper, board corrugated, creped, embossed, etc H4816: Carbon, duplicating, stencil, offset plate paper Sweden Finland % 5% 1% 15% 2% March 214 IDC Research and Information Sectoral Trends 26

29 average Production index (seasonally adjusted) (%) Number (1 ) Total per quarter H491: Printed reading books, brochures, leaflets, etc H482: Office books, forms, exercise books, folders, etc H4911: Printed matter, catalogues, pictures and photos H498: Transfers (decalcomanias) H492: Newspapers, journals and periodicals Total (including others) H491: Printed reading books, brochures, leaflets, etc H497: Documents of title (bonds etc), unused stamps, etc H4911: Printed matter, catalogues, pictures and photos H482: Office books, forms, exercise books, folders, etc H492: Newspapers, journals and periodicals Total (including others) compared to : Sector description H491: Printed reading books, brochures, leaflets, etc H498: Transfers (decalcomanias) Angola H4911: Printed matter, catalogues, pictures and photos Malawi Saudi Arabia H499: Postcards, printed or illustrated, greeting cards 1.98 Zambia H491: Calendars, printed 1.58 Mozambique H492: Newspapers, journals and periodicals Zimbabwe H482: Office books, forms, exercise books, folders, etc Italy H4: Printed maps, charts and atlases Ireland H8442: Machinery or equipment for print preparation Sweden H497: Documents of title (bonds etc), unused stamps, etc -.4 % 1% 2% 3% 4% March 214 IDC Research and Information Sectoral Trends 27

30 average Production index (seasonally adjusted) (%) Number (1 ) Total per quarter H271: Petroleum oils, bituminous, distillates, except crude H2712: Petroleum jelly and wax, other mineral waxes H2713: Petroleum coke, bitumen & other oil industry residues H2844: Radioactive elements, isotopes, compounds and mixtures H2711: Petroleum gases & other gaseous hydrocarbons Total (including others) H271: Petroleum oils, bituminous, distillates, except crude H2713: Petroleum coke, bitumen & other oil industry residues H2711: Petroleum gases & other gaseous hydrocarbons H274: Retort carbon, coke/semi-coke of coal, lignite,peat H2712: Petroleum jelly and wax, other mineral waxes Total (including others) compared to : Sector description H2712: Petroleum jelly and wax, other mineral waxes Kenya H2713: Petroleum coke, bitumen & other oil industry residues H276: Tar from coal, lignite or peat, other mineral tars.16 Zimbabwe DRC H841: Nuclear reactors,fuel elements,isotope separators.9 Zambia Singapore H271: Petroleum oils, bituminous, distillates, except crude Mozambique H2844: Radioactive elements, isotopes, compounds and mixtures Equatorial Guinea H2711: Petroleum gases & other gaseous hydrocarbons Oman H274: Retort carbon, coke/semi-coke of coal, lignite,peat Netherlands H3826: Biodiesel and mixtures thereof, containing 7 per cent by mass of -.2 Mozambique UAE Singapore India % 5% 1% 15% 2% 25% 3% March 214 IDC Research and Information Sectoral Trends 28

31 average Production index (seasonally adjusted) (%) Number (1 ) Total per quarter H392: Polymers of propylene, olefins in primary forms H291: Acyclic hydrocarbons H2: Acyclic alcohols and their derivatives H2914: Ketones and quinones, their derivatives H312: Mineral or chemical fertilizers, nitrogenous Total (including others) H312: Mineral or chemical fertilizers, nitrogenous H391: Polymers of ethylene, in primary forms H397: Polyacetals, polyethers, etc, primary H393: Polymers of styrene, in primary forms H314: Mineral or chemical fertilizers, potassic Total (including others) compared to : Sector description H277: Coal-tar distillation products including oils H2916: Unsaturated acyclic, cyclic monocarboxylc acids Zimbabwe H289: Diphosphorus pentaoxide, phosphoric acids Brazil Zambia H2: Acyclic alcohols and their derivatives India H2833: Sulphates, alums, peroxosulphates (persulphates) Belgium H2835: Phosphatic compounds H42: Synthetic rubber Belgium H284: Hydrogen, rare gases, non-metallic elements India H2843: Precious metal colloids, compounds & amalgams Qatar H282: Sulphur, sublimed or precipitated, colloidal sulphur Saudi Arabia % 5% 1% 15% 2% March 214 IDC Research and Information Sectoral Trends 29

32 average Production index (seasonally adjusted) (%) Number (1 ) Total per quarter 18 H388: Insecticides, fungicides, herbicides etc (retail) H334: Beauty, make-up and skin care preparations H34: M edicaments, therapeutic, prophylactic use H342: Organic surface active agent, preparation, except soap H3824: Prepared binders for foundary moulds or cores Total (including others) H34: Medicaments, therapeutic, prophylactic use H8523: Prepared unrecorded sound recording media H388: Insecticides, fungicides, herbicides etc (retail) H32: Blood, antisera, vaccines, toxins and cultures H3822: Composite diagnostic or laboratory reagents Total (including others) compared to : Sector description H388: Insecticides, fungicides, herbicides etc (retail) H334: Beauty, make-up and skin care preparations Brazil H34: M edicaments, therapeutic, prophylactic use Angola H342: Organic surface active agent, preparation, except soap Mozambique H341: Soaps Zambia H3814: Organic composite solvents,paint,varnish remover Zimbabwe H343: Lubricant, oils, leather work, <7% petroleum Belgium H3812: Rubber/ plastic accelerator, plasticiser, stabiliser H3215: Ink H364: Fireworks, signalling flares, etc France India % 5% 1% 15% March 214 IDC Research and Information Sectoral Trends 3

33 average Production index (seasonally adjusted) (%) Number (1 ) Total per quarter H411: New pneumatic tyres, of rubber H41: Conveyor and similar belts or belting of rubber H49: Rubber tube, pipe, hose, except hard rubber 2.82 H416: Articles of vulcanised rubber except hard rubber H412: Tyres nes, retreaded, etc, solid, cushioned Total (including others) H411: New pneumatic tyres, of rubber H416: Articles of vulcanised rubber except hard rubber H41: Conveyor and similar belts or belting of rubber H49: Rubber tube, pipe, hose, except hard rubber H415: Rubber clothing & accessories, but hard rubber Total (including others) compared to : Sector description H41: Conveyor and similar belts or belting of rubber H49: Rubber tube, pipe, hose, except hard rubber 7.7 Brazil H416: Articles of vulcanised rubber except hard rubber 39.7 DRC H596: Rubberised textile fabric, except tyre cord Mozambique H412: Tyres nes, retreaded, etc, solid, cushioned Zimbabwe H411: New pneumatic tyres, of rubber Zambia H45: Compounded unvulcanised rubber in primary form India H46: Unvulcanised rubber as rods, tubes, discs, etc Thailand H415: Rubber clothing & accessories, but hard rubber -.27 Spain Japan % 5% 1% 15% 2% 25% March 214 IDC Research and Information Sectoral Trends 31

34 average Production index (seasonally adjusted) (%) Number (1 ) Total per quarter H3923: Containers, bobbins and packages, of plastics H3917: Plastic tube, pipe, hose and fittings H3926: Plastic articles nes H392: Plastic plate, sheet, film not cellular, reinforced H3921: Plastic plate, sheet, film, foil, strip, cellular, nes Total (including others) H392: Plastic plate, sheet, film not cellular, reinforced H3926: Plastic articles nes H3919: Self-adhesive plates, sheets, film, etc of plastic H3923: Containers, bobbins and packages, of plastics H3921: Plastic plate, sheet, film, foil, strip, cellular, nes Total (including others) compared to : Sector description H3926: Plastic articles nes H656: Headgear, not felt, plaited, knit or crochet Angola H3923: Containers, bobbins and packages, of plastics Mozambique H392: Plastic plate, sheet, film not cellular, reinforced DRC H3917: Plastic tube, pipe, hose and fittings Zambia H3918: Plastic floor, wall or ceiling covering, roll or tiles Zimbabwe H945: Lamps and lighting fittings, illuminated signs, etc -.44 France Italy India % 5% 1% 15% 2% 25% 3% March 214 IDC Research and Information Sectoral Trends 32

35 average Production index (seasonally adjusted) (%) Number (1 ) Total per quarter H77: Safety glass (toughened, tempered, laminated) H71: Glass bottles, flasks, jars, phials, stoppers, etc H75: Float glass, surface ground, polished glass H719: Glass fibres, glass wool, and articles thereof H73: Cast and rolled glass, sheets and profiles Total (including others) H713: Glassware for table, kitchen, toilet, decoration H77: Safety glass (toughened, tempered, laminated) H71: Glass bottles, flasks, jars, phials, stoppers, etc 31.5 H719: Glass fibres, glass wool, and articles thereof H79: Glass mirrors, whether or not framed Total (including others) compared to : Sector description H77: Safety glass (toughened, tempered, laminated) France H71: Glass bottles, flasks, jars, phials, stoppers, etc 69.8 Belgium H719: Glass fibres, glass wool, and articles thereof Zambia H75: Float glass, surface ground, polished glass Zimbabwe H713: Glassware for table, kitchen, toilet, decoration 5.47 India H716: Glass blocks, bricks, tiles, leaded lights, etc Mozambique H711: Glass envelopes for electrical/electronic lamps, etc Italy H72: Articles of glass, nes H714: Signalling glassware, unworked optical elements -.57 UAE France % 1% 2% 3% 4% March 214 IDC Research and Information Sectoral Trends 33

36 average Production index (seasonally adjusted) (%) Number (1 ) Total per quarter H698: Glazed ceramic flags and paving, hearth, wall tiles H2523: Cement (portland, aluminous, slag or hydraulic) H682: Worked monumental,building stone,articles thereof H2522: Quicklime,slaked, hydraulic lime for construction H381: Artificial, graphite and preparations Total (including others) H699: Ceramic laboratory, technical, packaging articles H698: Glazed ceramic flags and paving, hearth, wall tiles H692: Refractory brick,block, tile, etc not siliceous-earths H2523: Cement (portland, aluminous, slag or hydraulic) H6815: Articles of stone or other mineral substances Total (including others) compared to : Sector description H682: Worked monumental,building stone,articles thereof H381: Artificial, graphite and preparations H681: Articles of cement, concrete or artificial stone Mozambique H698: Glazed ceramic flags and paving, hearth, wall tiles DRC H6815: Articles of stone or other mineral substances 32.6 Zimbabwe H2522: Quicklime,slaked, hydraulic lime for construction Zambia H693: Refractory ceramic articles not for construction Hungary H6814: Worked mica and articles of mica Italy H6914: Ceramic articles, nes H6913: Statuettes and other ornamental ceramic articles Japan Pakistan % 5% 1% 15% 2% 25% 3% 35% March 214 IDC Research and Information Sectoral Trends 34

37 average Production index (seasonally adjusted) (%) Number (1 ) Total per quarter H722: Ferro-alloys H7219: Rolled stainless steel sheet, width > 6mm H728: Hot-rolled products, iron/steel, width>6mm, etc H721: Pig iron and spiegeleisen in primary forms H721: Flat-rolled iron/steel, >6mm, clad, plated/ coated Total (including others) H721: Flat-rolled iron/steel, >6mm, clad, plated/ coated H7225: Flat-rolled alloy steel, width >6mm H736: Tube, pipe of iron/steel, not seamless > 46.4mm H728: Hot-rolled products, iron/steel, width>6mm, etc H737: Pipe fittings, of iron or steel Total (including others) compared to : Sector description H722: Ferro-alloys Taiwan H7219: Rolled stainless steel sheet, width > 6mm H7214: Iron/steel bar, forged hot-rolled drawn, extruded South Korea Netherlands H7216: Angles, shapes & sections of iron/ non-alloy steel Japan H721: Pig iron and spiegeleisen in primary forms H728: Hot-rolled products, iron/steel, width>6mm, etc H727: Semi-finished products of iron or non-alloy steel Austria H729: Flat-rolled iron/steel, >6mm, not clad, plated, etc South Korea H721: Flat-rolled iron/steel, >6mm, clad, plated/ coated Spain H7212: Flat-rolled iron/steel, <6mm, clad, plated/ coated India Japan % 5% 1% 15% 2% 25% March 214 IDC Research and Information Sectoral Trends 35

38 12 average Production index (seasonally adjusted) (%) Number (1 ) Total per quarter 7 H761: Unwrought aluminium H766: Aluminium plates, sheets&strip, thickness>.2 mm H755: Nickel bars, rods, profiles and wire H8111: Manganese, articles thereof, waste or scrap H752: Unwrought nickel Total (including others) H2818: Aluminium oxide, hydroxide & artificial corundum H743: Refined copper and copper alloys, unwrought H748: Copper wire H761: Unwrought aluminium H766: Aluminium plates, sheets&strip, thickness>.2 mm Total (including others) compared to : Sector description H761: Unwrought aluminium Thailand H755: Nickel bars, rods, profiles and wire Belgium H751: Nickel matte, interim products of nickel metallurgy Indonesia Switzerland H8111: Manganese, articles thereof, waste or scrap H752: Unwrought nickel H756: Nickel plates, sheets, strip and foil Japan H784: Lead plates, sheets, strip, foil, powders & flakes Russia H749: Copper plates, sheets &strips, thickness>.15mm Bahrain H7412: Copper pipe and tube fittings Brazil H8113: Cermets and articles thereof, waste or scrap Zambia Australia % 1% 2% 3% 4% March 214 IDC Research and Information Sectoral Trends 36

39 average Production index (seasonally adjusted) (%) Number (1 ) Total per quarter H738: Structures, parts of structures of iron or steel H7326: Articles of iron or steel nes H827: Interchangeable tools & dies for hand/power tools H7318: Screws, bolts, nuts, rivets, etc, iron or steel H7312: Stranded steel wire, etc, without electric insulation Total (including others) H7318: Screws, bolts, nuts, rivets, etc, iron or steel H7326: Articles of iron or steel nes H827: Interchangeable tools & dies for hand/power tools H738: Structures, parts of structures of iron or steel H832: Base metal fittings for furniture, doors, cars, etc Total (including others) compared to : Sector description H7326: Articles of iron or steel nes Nigeria H832: Base metal fittings for furniture, doors, cars, etc Angola H842: Steam/vapour generating boiler Zimbabwe H7318: Screws, bolts, nuts, rivets, etc, iron or steel Mozambique H825: Hand tools nes, anvils, clamps, vices, blow lamps, etc DRC H841: Nuclear reactors,fuel elements,isotope separators Zambia H786: Articles of lead nes Sweden H827: Interchangeable tools & dies for hand/power tools France H739: Reservoirs, tanks, vats, etc, iron/ steel cap >3l Spain H7419: Articles of copper nes India % 5% 1% 15% 2% 25% 3% 35% March 214 IDC Research and Information Sectoral Trends 37

40 average Production index (seasonally adjusted) (%) Number (1 ) Total per quarter H8474: Machinery to sort, screen, etc mineral products H8431: Parts for use with lifting, moving machinery H8413: Pumps for liquids H8429: Self-propeled earth moving, road making machines H8421: Liquid, gas centrifuges, filtering, purifying machine Total (including others) H8471: Automatic data processing machines (computers) H8429: Self-propeled earth moving, road making machines H8443: Printing and ancillary machinery H8431: Parts for use with lifting, moving machinery H8479: Machines nes having individual functions Total (including others) compared to : Sector description H871: Tanks and other armoured fighting vehicles UAE H8431: Parts for use with lifting, moving machinery H8474: Machinery to sort, screen, etc mineral products Zimbabwe H8471: Automatic data processing machines (computers) 38.7 Mozambique H871: Tractors (besides works, warehouse equipment) DRC H843: Earth/snow moving, boring/ pile driving machines Zambia H8429: Self-propeled earth moving, road making machines France H8437: Machines to clean, sort or mill seed, grain, etc H8426: Derricks, cranes, straddle carriers, crane trucks Japan H8412: Engines and motors, nes Italy % 5% 1% 15% 2% 25% 3% March 214 IDC Research and Information Sectoral Trends 38

41 average Production index (seasonally adjusted) (%) Number (1 ) Total per quarter 14 H8544: Insulated wire and cable, optical fibre cable H8537: Electrical power, etc, control & distribution boards H8536: Electrical switches, connectors, etc, for < 1kV H854: Electric transformers,static converters & rectifiers H851: Electric motors and generators, except generating sets Total (including others) H852: Electric generating sets and rotary converters H854: Electric transformers,static converters & rectifiers H8536: Electrical switches, connectors, etc, for < 1kV H8543: Electrical machinery and apparatus H8544: Insulated wire and cable, optical fibre cable Total (including others) compared to : Sector description H8537: Electrical power, etc, control & distribution boards H8544: Insulated wire and cable, optical fibre cable Ghana H851: Electric motors and generators, except generating sets Zimbabwe H8536: Electrical switches, connectors, etc, for < 1kV Mozambique H8531: Electric sound or visual signal equipment nes Zambia H8543: Electrical machinery and apparatus DRC H852: Electric generating sets and rotary converters H8547: Insulating fittings for electrical equipment Spain H853: Parts for electric motors and generators Denmark H853: Electrical signalling and traffic control equipment Italy % 5% 1% 15% 2% 25% 3% March 214 IDC Research and Information Sectoral Trends 39

42 average Production index (seasonally adjusted) (%) Number (1 ) Total per quarter H8517: Electric apparatus for line telephony, telegraphy H8528: Television receivers, video monitors, projectors H8529: Parts for radio, tv transmission, receive equipment H8525: Radio and TV transmitters, television cameras H8541: Diodes, transistors, semi-conductors, etc 13.6 Total (including others) H8517: Electric apparatus for line telephony, telegraphy H8541: Diodes, transistors, semi-conductors, etc H8529: Parts for radio, tv transmission, receive equipment H8525: Radio and TV transmitters, television cameras H8528: Television receivers, video monitors, projectors Total (including others) compared to : Sector description H8518: Audio-electronic equipment non-recording devices Zimbabwe H8529: Parts for radio, tv transmission, receive equipment Mozambique H8527: Radio, radio-telephony receivers Kenya Angola H8519: Non-recording sound reproducing equipment UAE H854: Thermionic and cold cathode valves and tubes Zambia H8529: Parts for radio, tv transmission, receive equipment Hong Kong H8527: Radio, radio-telephony receivers Singapore H8541: Diodes, transistors, semi-conductors, etc Thailand H8522: Accessories of audio, video recording equipment Malaysia H8532: Electrical capacitors, fixed, variable or adjustable Mexico India Vietnam % 5% 1% 15% 2% 25% 3% 35% 4% 45% March 214 IDC Research and Information Sectoral Trends 4

43 average Production index (seasonally adjusted) (%) Number (1 ) Total per quarter 8 H918: Instruments, etc for medical, surgical & dental use H928: Gas, liquid/ electricity supply or production meters H931: Measuring or checking instruments nes H8526: Radar, radio navigation & remote control apparatus H915: Survey, oceanographic, meteorological instruments Total (including others) H918: Instruments, etc for medical, surgical & dental use H927: Equipment for physical and chemical analysis H921: Orthopaedic appliances H931: Measuring or checking instruments nes H932: Automatic regulating or controlling equipment Total (including others) compared to : Sector description H913: Liquid crystal devices, lasers, optical appliances DRC H918: Instruments, etc for medical, surgical & dental use Zambia H915: Survey, oceanographic, meteorological instruments Mozambique Zimbabwe H932: Automatic regulating or controlling equipment 7.2 H8526: Radar, radio navigation & remote control apparatus H914: Navigational instrumts, direction finding compass H931: Measuring or checking instruments nes France H928: Gas, liquid/ electricity supply or production meters Japan H929: Revolution counters, taximeters & speedometers H942: M edical, dental, surgical, veterinary furniture, etc Switzerland % 5% 1% 15% 2% 25% March 214 IDC Research and Information Sectoral Trends 41

44 average Production index (seasonally adjusted) (%) Number (1 ) Total per quarter H873: Vehicles for transport of persons (except buses) H874: Motor vehicles for the transport of goods H8421: Liquid, gas centrifuges, filtering, purifying machine H878: Parts and accessories for motor vehicles H849: Parts for internal combustion spark ignition engine Total (including others) H981: Original equipment components H873: Vehicles for transport of persons (except buses) H878: Parts and accessories for motor vehicles H874: Motor vehicles for the transport of goods H849: Parts for internal combustion spark ignition engine Total (including others) compared to : Sector description H874: Motor vehicles for the transport of goods Australia H873: Vehicles for transport of persons (except buses) Belgium H8421: Liquid, gas centrifuges, filtering, purifying machine Algeria H878: Parts and accessories for motor vehicles Japan H848: Compression-ignition engines (diesel, etc) H847: Spark-ignition internal combustion engines H875: Special purpose motor vehicles South Korea H876: Motor vehicle chassis fitted with engine India Thailand Japan % 5% 1% 15% 2% 25% 3% 35% March 214 IDC Research and Information Sectoral Trends 42

45 average Production index (seasonally adjusted) (%) Number (1 ) Total per quarter H883: Parts of aircraft, spacecraft, etc H893: Yachts, pleasure, sports vessels, boats, canoes H882: Aircraft, spacecraft, satellites 64.8 H862: Rail locomotives, diesel, steam, locomotive tenders H847: Spark-ignition internal combustion engines Total (including others) H882: Aircraft, spacecraft, satellites H883: Parts of aircraft, spacecraft, etc H867: Parts of railway, tramway locomotives, etc H8711: Motorcycles, bicycles, etc with auxiliary motor H8714: Parts & accessories of bicycles, motorcycles, etc Total (including others) compared to : Sector description H883: Parts of aircraft, spacecraft, etc Congo H847: Spark-ignition internal combustion engines Italy H893: Yachts, pleasure, sports vessels, boats, canoes France H862: Rail locomotives, diesel, steam, locomotive tenders H867: Parts of railway, tramway locomotives, etc Mozambique H882: Aircraft, spacecraft, satellites H8411: Turbo-jets/-propellers/other gas turbine engines Brazil H894: Tugs and pusher craft Ireland H897: Floating structures (rafts, stages, buoys/beacons) H885: Aircraft launching gear, flight simulators France % 5% 1% 15% 2% 25% 3% 35% March 214 IDC Research and Information Sectoral Trends 43

46 average Production index (seasonally adjusted) (%) Number (1 ) Total per quarter H941: Seats (except dentist, barber, etc chairs) H943: Other furniture and parts thereof H944: M attress supports, mattresses, bedding Total (including others) H941: Seats (except dentist, barber, etc chairs) H943: Other furniture and parts thereof H944: M attress supports, mattresses, bedding Total (including others) compared to : Sector description H943: Other furniture and parts thereof H944: M attress supports, mattresses, bedding Zimbabwe Mozambique Bulgaria Spain Zambia H941: Seats (except dentist, barber, etc chairs) Indonesia Poland Malaysia Italy Thailand % 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% March 214 IDC Research and Information Sectoral Trends 44