Energy and Climate Change, A Washington Perspective
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1 Energy and Climate Change, A Washington Perspective William L. Kovacs Senior Vice President U.S. Chamber of Commerce Forging Industry Association Energy Workshop The Timken Company March 24, 2010 Forging Industry Association Energy Workshop March 24, 2010 William L. Kovacs USCC 1
2 An Overview: 1. The Energy Future 2. The Elephant in the Room Climate Legislation Climate Regulation Climate Litigation 3. Limits on Development Forging Industry Association Energy Workshop March 24, 2010 William L. Kovacs USCC 2
3 Our Energy Future: Balancing our economic, technology, environmental, energy and security needs It is a puzzlehow we put the pieces together will make all the difference Forging Industry Association Energy Workshop March 24, 2010 William L. Kovacs USCC 3
4 Our Energy Future: What is needed Our future energy needs will be massive The amount of new technology needed will be massive The cost of our future energy needs will be massive Forging Industry Association Energy Workshop March 24, 2010 William L. Kovacs USCC 4
5 Selected Global Energy Facts Quadrillion Btu Global energy use by type Total global energy demand 70% increase Non-OECD countries account for 82% of the increase in global energy use to OECD Non-OECD Forging Industry Association Energy Workshop March 24, 2010 William L. Kovacs USCC 5
6 Climate Change: A Global Issue That Requires a Global Approach Forging Industry Association Energy Workshop March 24, 2010 William L. Kovacs USCC 6
7 What it will take! CO 2 Emissions (Gt CO 2 /yr) Global 2000 Emissions Global 2050 Reference Emissions Global Emissins 50% 2005 Global CO 2 Emissions , 2050 Reference Case, and 2050 at 50% of 2000: MINICAM Gt/yr +106% (26.0 Gt/yr) 50.6 Gt/yr ` 12.3 Gt/yr -76% (-38.3 Gt/yr) Achieving a 550 ppm outcome by the end of this century requires approximately terawatts of carbon-free power this is roughly equivalent to three to four times as much power as is generated by all the fossil fuels used in the entire world at the present time Emissions 2050 Reference Emissions 2050 Global Emissions at 50% of 2000 Emissions 1 Includes fossil and other industrial CO2. Source: Climate Change Science Program Scenarios of Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Atmospheric Concentrations (MINICAM model results). Forging Industry Association Energy Workshop March 24, 2010 William L. Kovacs USCC 7
8 Requires Energy Mix Transformation Forging Industry Association Energy Workshop March 24, 2010 William L. Kovacs USCC 8
9 Is There an Elephant? Forging Industry Association Energy Workshop March 24, 2010 William L. Kovacs USCC 9
10 How Climate Change is Addressed in U.S. International Agreements --- Climate Change Management Climate Change Legislation Regulation under the Clean Air Act SEC CEQ Continuing Litigation* Lieberman- Boxer Kerry, Warner Graham Dingell-Boucher & Lieberman Energy Waxman- Legislation Markey California Waiver Endangerment Tailpipes Tailoring Administrative Litigation Deseret ** Ocean Acidification Water Act Murkowsky Amendment Regulatory Process Non-NAAQS Trigger of PSD NAAQS For CO 2 Connecticut vs. AEP Polar Bears Endangered Species Act * Environmental groups file over 400 cases annually against the federal government over regulatory matters. Key victories include particulate matter, ozone, CO 2, lead, and mercury. ** Filed 6 CO 2 administrative cases with Environmental Appeals Board, 5 dismissed. The case moving forward deals directly with authority of EPA to regulate CO 2 from stationary sources. Class Actions Endangerment Tailpipe Emissions MA vs. EPA Forging Industry Association Energy Workshop March 24, 2010 William L. Kovacs USCC 10
11 Path 1: Legislation Forging Industry Association Energy Workshop March 24, 2010 William L. Kovacs USCC 11
12 Where is Congress on Climate Change? The U.S. House of Representatives: Passed the American Clean Energy and Security Act on June 26, Democrats voted against the bill; 8 Republicans voted for it The U.S. Senate: Boxer legislation (dead) Graham-Kerry-Lieberman; different framework: a cap-and-trade for utilities; carbon tax on fuels; transition for industrials; preemption of CAA and state regualtion Murkowski; Congressional Review Act Rockefeller; Two-year moratorium Forging Industry Association Energy Workshop March 24, 2010 William L. Kovacs USCC 12
13 Winners and Losers on Allocations Graphic courtesy of the American Petroleum Institute. Allocations based on 5/15/09 version of the bill; emissions data from 2009 EIA Annual Energy Outlook Forging Industry Association Energy Workshop March 24, 2010 William L. Kovacs USCC 13
14 Unresolved Issues: Waxman-Markey & Kerry-Boxer 1. PREEMPTION 2. TRADE BARRIERS 3. QUESTIONABLE IMPACT ON JOBS / COSTS 4. TAKES ENERGY OUT, DOESN T ADEQUATELY REPLACE 5. INEQUITABLE TREATMENT OF THE FUELS SECTOR 6. NOT INTERNATIONAL IN SCOPE 7. MASSIVE NEW BUREAUCRACY (1,500 NEW REGS & MANDATES) Forging Industry Association Energy Workshop March 24, 2010 William L. Kovacs USCC 14
15 Bureaucracy Expansion Act? Forging Industry Association Energy Workshop March 24, 2010 William L. Kovacs USCC 15
16 Bureaucracy Expansion Act? Forging Industry Association Energy Workshop March 24, 2010 William L. Kovacs USCC 16
17 Bureaucracy Expansion Act? Forging Industry Association Energy Workshop March 24, 2010 William L. Kovacs USCC 17
18 Environmental Law Forging Industry Association Energy Workshop March 24, 2010 William L. Kovacs USCC 18
19 Decrease (in dollars) Allowance Cost (dollars) Percent Change Economic impact Impact of ACES on Allowance Prices Impact of ACES on Electricity Prices EIA EPA CBO CRA ACCF EIA EPA CRA ACCF Year Year Impact on Annual Household Consumption EIA EPA CBO CRA ACCF Forging Industry Association Energy Workshop March 24, 2010 William L. Kovacs USCC 19
20 Most States Lose Under H.R Forging Industry Association Energy Workshop March 24, 2010 William L. Kovacs USCC 20
21 Path 2: Regulation Forging Industry Association Energy Workshop March 24, 2010 William L. Kovacs USCC 21
22 Understanding the Challenge Why is regulation under the Clean Air Act happening? Massachusetts vs. EPA Enormous Agency leverage Environmentalists have huge clout with the administration Forging Industry Association Energy Workshop March 24, 2010 William L. Kovacs USCC 22
23 Triggering Events for Regulation 1. Endangerment A judgment by the Administrator of EPA that greenhouse gases cause, or contribute to, air pollution which may reasonably be anticipated to endanger public health or welfare. What this means: if GHGs from cars endanger public health and welfare, then GHGs from [insert source] do as well. 2. GHGs become subject to regulation under the Act Triggers Prevention of Significant Deterioration (PSD) and Title V permitting To date, GHGs are not subject to regulation The Problem: Fringe environmental groups want to use PSD to regulate all sources of GHGs, large and small What this means: No more construction! Forging Industry Association Energy Workshop March 24, 2010 William L. Kovacs USCC 23
24 How the Cascade Works 1. EPA makes endangerment finding for motor vehicles and issues tailpipe regulations 2. PSD and Title V permit provisions apply immediately, even to stationary sources 3. Environmental groups sue to trigger endangerment provisions in Sections 108 (NAAQS) and 111 (NSPS) What is the impact? Forging Industry Association Energy Workshop March 24, 2010 William L. Kovacs USCC 24
25 What CAA regulation means for your industry Short Term ( ): Downstream impacts (i.e. price increases) from imposition of New Source Performance Standards on energy producers and requirements that they install Best Available Control Technology. PSD permits for new/modified facilities; installation of BACT. Title V operating permits: administrative fees, citizen suits. Long Term NAAQS for CO2, an absolute disaster. PSD and Title V thresholds lowered to cover small sources. Forging Industry Association Energy Workshop March 24, 2010 William L. Kovacs USCC 25
26 PSD: Who would be regulated by EPA Forging Industry Association Energy Workshop March 24, 2010 William L. Kovacs USCC 26
27 Path 3: Litigation Forging Industry Association Energy Workshop March 24, 2010 William L. Kovacs USCC 27
28 Endangerment: For and Against Court Filings in Support Court Filings in Opposition 15 states (AZ, CA, CT, DE, IA, IL, ME, MD, NH, NM, NY, OR, RI, VT, WA) and the City of New York Coalition of large environmental groups (Natural Resources Defense Council, Environmental Defense Fund, Sierra Club, and National Wildlife Federation) Conservation Law Foundation (extreme-left) Petitions for Reconsideration Southeastern Law Foundation Pacific Legal Foundation Peabody Energy Co. Competitive Enterprise Institute U.S. Chamber of Commerce State of Texas State of Alabama Commonwealth of Virginia Coalition for Responsible Regulation American Farm Bureau Federation NAM, NPRA, API, Corn Refiners, NAHB, NOPA National Mining Assn. Utility Air Regulatory Group U.S. Chamber Portland Cement Assn. Ohio Coal Assn. Competitive Enterprise Institute American Iron & Steel Institute Gerdau Ameristeel Corp. Southeastern Legal Foundation Peabody Energy Co. Forging Industry Association Energy Workshop March 24, 2010 William L. Kovacs USCC 28
29 Will Any Path Actually Work? Forging Industry Association Energy Workshop March 24, 2010 William L. Kovacs USCC 29
30 More Impediments to Economic Development 1. National Ocean Policy 2. New NEPA Restrictions 3. Endangered Species 4. Restrictions on Drilling 5. Hydraulic Fracturing 6. New Ozone Standards 7. Transboundary Emissions 8. Project No Project Forging Industry Association Energy Workshop March 24, 2010 William L. Kovacs USCC 30
31 Ozone NAAQS Reconsideration (2008 NAAQS set at 0.75 ppm) Forging Industry Association Energy Workshop March 24, 2010 William L. Kovacs USCC 31
32 Opening the Toolchest to the NIMBYs Forging Industry Association Energy Workshop March 24, 2010 William L. Kovacs USCC 32
33 Discussion There appear to be two clear choices: EPA regulation or legislation. Negotiations with Kerry, Lieberman and Graham are proceeding in earnest. No bill text has been produced, and we do not expect to see an actual bill for some time. What do you believe is the right policy for your industry? Forging Industry Association Energy Workshop March 24, 2010 William L. Kovacs USCC 33
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