Charles University Faculty of Humanities

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1 Charles University Faculty of Humanities Bachelor Thesis The Management of Transboundary River Basins in South Asia: The Brahmaputra Case Nora Babalová Under the supervision of doc. Ing. Karel Müller, CSc. Prague 2017

2 Acknowledgements I wish to express my sincere gratitude to my supervisor, Karel Müller, for his excellent guidance, patience, knowledge and mentorship throughout the thesis. I would like to extend my thanks to my colleagues at the South Asia Democratic Forum in Brussels, where I completed my internship. In particular, I thank Siegfried O. Wolf, for providing invaluable insights and for reviewing the Brahmaputra case.

3 I declare that I carried out this bachelor thesis independently, and only with the cited sources, literature and other professional sources. In Prague, Signature of the author

4 Abstract The increasing threat of climate change, water scarcity and water diversion impacts, have the potential to trigger regional instability in various areas around the globe. The natural place to look at, for instance, is the Brahmaputra River, an international watercourse flowing through China (Tibet), India, and Bangladesh. Compared to other transboundary river basins in South Asia, the Brahmaputra has been substantially under-examined, especially considering the complex geopolitics involved and potential threats to regional stability. The objective of this thesis is thus to provide an analysis of transboundary water management in South Asia with a detailed picture of the Brahmaputra case. The thesis analyses the social and environmental impacts of large-scale hydropower projects on downstream ecosystems and river-dependent populations; identifies relevant types of approaches to sustainable water management; and explores major hindrances to effective cross-border cooperation between the basin countries. Key words: South Asia, China, India, Bangladesh, Water Management, Brahmaputra, Dams

5 Table of Contents List of Figures Introduction Theoretical background Problem formulation Objectives of the thesis Conceptual framework Approaches to Water Management Ecosystem approach Integrated water resources management approach Adaptive management approach Methodology Research design Research questions Outline of the thesis Major Transboundary River Basins in South Asia The Indus River The Ganges River The Brahmaputra River Danger imposed by Chinese large dams Danger imposed by Indian large dams The lowest riparian: Bangladesh Social and Environmental Implications of Large Dams New migration flows and their cultural consequences Changing biodiversity and natural ecosystems Recommendations for Management of International Watercourses Overview of global initiatives relevant to South Asia Assessment of recommendations Conclusion Bibliography... 45

6 List of Abbreviations CBD IUCN IWRM MOU MRC MW PLA SAARC SAWI SNWDP TAR UNDRIP UNWC WCD WWF Convention on Biological Diversity International Union for Conservation of Nature Integrated Water Resources Management Memorandum of Understanding Mekong River Commission Megawatt People s Liberation Army South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation South Asia Water Initiative South to North Water Diversion Project Tibet Autonomous Region United Nations Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples United Nations Watercourses Convention World Commission on Dams World Wildlife Fund

7 List of Figures Figure 1. The Brahmaputra River 10 Figure 2. Map of the Indus, Ganges, and Brahmaputra basins 21

8 1. Introduction The bachelor thesis was conducted during the spring semester 2017 at the Charles University, under the supervision of doc. Ing. Karel Müller, CSc. The study is based on a working paper 1 which I completed during my internship between October 2016 and March 2017 at the South Asia Democratic Forum (SADF) 2 in Brussels. In particular, this applies for the Brahmaputra case presented in the thesis. During the internship, I was supervised by Dr. Siegfried O. Wolf 3 who provided me with valuable insights on the issue Theoretical background Dams have the ability to control floods, divert rivers, store water for drinking and irrigation, and generate power (Workman, 2009). In terms of modern hydropower, dams are the primary way to manipulate a river for human benefit by controlling flood patterns, dams have allowed many civilizations to develop in extreme proximity to rivers, where volatile flood plains would otherwise not allow it ( Modern hydropower, 2007). Dams can ensure a reliable river flow year round and bring water to otherwise arid landscapes ( Modern hydropower, 2007). However, dams intervene with the world s natural hydrology in the same way deforestation fragments ecosystems, and the sustainability of this intervention is thus up for debate. The presence of dams has increased globally due to the ability of human to manipulate natural processes of hydrology for his own benefit. At the end of the twentieth century, the dam industry had choked more than half of the earth s major rivers with more than 50,000 large dams (International Rivers, n.d.). Modern dam development is usually driven by politics, economics, and energy demand. North America s largest dams, for instance, were developed for a variety of purposes such as navigation and recreation, flood control, irrigation, hydropower, water supply, and for multiple other purposes (Workman, 2009). Different types of dams vary in size, purpose, material, and environment. Sometimes, however, the design of the dam does not fit the hydrology of the host 1 Babalová, N. (2017, April 21). Prospects for the Implementation of a Water Management Regime in the Brahmaputra River Basin: An Assessment of the Guiding Principles (Working paper No. 4). Retrieved April 22, 2017, from South Asia Democratic Forum website: 2 SADF is a think tank based in Brussels that is dedicated to South Asian studies and counts today two research programmes one on democracy and the other on regional cooperation. It aims to contribute to the understanding of political and socioeconomic trajectories and realities in contemporary South Asia. 3 Dr. Siegfried O. Wolf is director of research at SADF. He is the co-author of A Political and Economic Dictionary of South Asia (Routledge: London, 2006), co-editor of Politics in South Asia: Culture, Rationality and Conceptual Flow (Springer: Heidelberg, 2015), the Merits of Regionalisation: the Case of South Asia (Springer: Heidelberg, 2014), and State and Foreign Policy in South Asia (Sanskriti, 2010). He is also deputy editor of the Heidelberg Papers in South Asian and Comparative Politics.!8

9 river. This can be due to the time and funding that limits the pre-construction analysis and assessment. The history of water management is an emerging challenge as the number of uses and users has grown and the intensity of their water use, often measured in terms of the proportion of available water that is actually used, has increased (Lenton & Muller, 2009, p. 5) Problem formulation South Asia 4 comprises eight countries Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka ( South Asia Regional Integration, 2016). All these countries are also members of the South Asia Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC). The natural character of the region is prone to climate change and natural disasters such as floods, landslides, and earthquakes that heavily impact the ecosystem of the region and often lead to drastic changes in the living conditions of people. At the same time, the main transboundary river systems in South Asia the Indus, Ganges, and Brahmaputra that except the Ganges 5 originate in the Tibet Autonomous Region (TAR) of China, constitute a major source of potential hydropower, making it an attractive prospect for dam builders. The Indus basin spans China, Afghanistan, Pakistan and India, while the Brahmaputra and the Ganges connect China, Bhutan, India, Nepal and Bangladesh (Siwakoti, 2011). The Tibetan Plateau is the water tank of the Asian continent and the source of all its major rivers; it supplies water for at least two billion people who live downstream. 6 Up to ninety per cent of the surface runoff from rivers originating in TAR, flows into Chinese downstream regions, India, Bangladesh, Vietnam, Cambodia, Laos, Thailand, Myanmar, Nepal, Bhutan, and Pakistan (Buckley, 2014). One of them is called the Brahmaputra, meaning the Son of Brahma in Sanskrit, which has various other different names 7 depending on the region. The Brahmaputra 4 The definition of this geographical region varies. The term South Asia sometimes overlaps with the Indian subcontinent which primarily consists of India, Bangladesh and Pakistan. When this term is used, the other surrounding nations are usually not included. 5 The Ganges River (also Ganga, a Hindu goddess) originates in the Indian state of Uttarakhand and is considered sacred in Hinduism. 6 Xizang is a Chinese name for Tibet, which was created by Chinese authorities in It reflects the natural wealth of Tibet and thus is often translated as western treasure house (Watts, 2010). 7 The river originates in Tibet where its local name is Yarlung Tsangpo, then passes through two Indian states of Arunachal Pradesh and Assam, where it is most often called the Brahmaputra, and finally flows into the Bay of Bengal in Bangladesh, known as the Jamuna. For consistency, this paper uses the term Brahmaputra for the river both inside and outside Indian territory. 9

10 is the world s highest-altitude river and is shared mainly by three Asian countries, China, India, and Bangladesh. Figure 1. The Brahmaputra River Source: Samaranayake, Limaye, & Wuthnow, 2016 Water can easily become a source of conflict, particularly in the case of transboundary river basins, where the water is shared and claimed by several densely populated and waterstressed countries. Today, India and China are the world s most water-stressed and most populated countries in the world. At the same time, the two countries are building more dams than any other country on earth (WCD, 2000). In view of the threat of increasing water scarcity and need for electricity supply in China and India, several authors predict that the Brahmaputra 10

11 has the potential to become a new source of conflict, especially with regard to water allocation and river development projects (Chellaney, 2009, 2011, 2013; Economy & Levi, 2014; IANS, 2016; Ramachandran, 2015; Samaranayake et al, 2016; Wuthnow, 2016). The territoriality of water resources is usually at the core of any issues relating to water allocation, as people and governments tend to consider that all resources located on their territory belong to them. In practical terms, this means that if an upstream state pollutes or limits the water flow, the downstream states will always have difficulties using the water resource efficiently and fairly. The issue of sustainable water management in South Asia has been increasingly gaining significance, particularly in view of the fact that water has the potential to sharpen territorial and resource feuds, and trigger greater regional instability. The management of transboundary water resources is generally known for its complexity and large number of interconnected socioeconomic, technological, environmental, and institutional aspects. In addition, transboundary water management tends to be specific to each reality and complex in terms of the factors involved. Challenges related to climate change, increasing water scarcity and large-scale water diversion projects are both intra- and international by nature and thus require collaborative approaches to develop suitable solutions to address unexpected events (e.g., earthquakes, landslides, floods) and displaced peoples. The thesis shares its findings on the aspects of cross-border water management in South Asia; identifies existing approaches and recommendations to transboundary water management; and analyses the impacts of large-scale hydropower projects on downstream populations and ecosystems Objectives of the thesis The purpose of this bachelor thesis is to provide a comprehensive analysis of the management of transboundary river basins in South Asia. In particular, the thesis seeks to identify the sociopolitical, environmental, and institutional aspects along the three major river basins in the Indian subcontinent the Indus, Ganges, and Brahmaputra. The major focus, however, is on the Brahmaputra case because the Brahmaputra basin has been comparatively under-examined, especially considering the complex geopolitics involved and potential threats to regional stability (Samaranayake et al., 2016, p. 3). 11

12 Therefore, the thesis will analyse the (i) geopolitical and regional aspects of the Brahmaputra case as well as its (ii) social, environmental and other case-related issues. The thesis will then present a list of recommendations to transboundary water management in the context of South Asia. The thesis will consider why certain water management issues can be international and transboundary in nature, specifically with regard to the social, cultural, political, and economic factors that influence the path of sustainable water management implementation Conceptual framework The main concepts of the thesis are presented in greater detail in the following chapter. The conceptual framework consists of approaches that were considered relevant and necessary for the cross-border water management in South Asia. These approaches will include the ecosystem approach, the adaptive management and regime approach, and the integrated water resources management. 12

13 2. Approaches to Water Management Water management is an essential issue for the overall well-being of society. However, while the management of water use whether for domestic, agricultural or industrial purposes is usually well understood, the management of the resource to enable the use to take place is not (Lenton & Muller, 2009, p. 5). Issues related to water need to be addressed holistically and therefore governments and stakeholders have to consider the concepts of geographic scale and understand the specific characteristics of the region (Gamble et al., 2017) environmental, social and political variables must therefore be always integrated in management of water resources. Specific types of approaches to water management often tend to overlap. Having this in mind, this chapter presents a water management conceptual framework that this thesis considers relevant for the analysis of the Brahmaputra case and lists three approaches to water management Ecosystem approach Global initiatives such as the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) and the World Wildlife Fund (WWF) are proponents of the so-called ecosystem approach (Price & Mittra, 2016). The ecosystem approach of which water is a key component has the potential to bring about shared understanding of challenges to create shared solutions (Price & Mittra, 2016, p. 21), because the approach can combine technological solutions with sensitivity to history, culture and the politics of resource management (p. 21); it incorporates principles of relevant disciplines such as hydrology, ecology, geology, and even anthropology and sociology (p. 21) because the approach considers that peoples and cultural diversity are integral elements of the ecosystems. This approach takes into account ecological, social and economic aspects and seeks to balance the three objectives of the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD): biodiversity conservation, sustainable use and equitable benefit-sharing from the use of natural resources (Price & Mittra, 2016, p. 22). It also considers that humans and cultural diversity are integral elements of most ecosystems (Price & Mittra, 2016). The ecosystem approach is a flexible framework that can be adapted to various problems. It is based on the following twelve principles of CBD that form the basis for the ecosystem approach: (1) Objectives for 13

14 management of land, water and living resources are a matter of societal choice; (2) Management should be decentralised to the lowest appropriate level; (3) Ecosystem managers should consider the effects of their activities on adjacent and other ecosystems; (4) Recognising potential gains from management, there is a need to understand the ecosystem in an economic context programmes should reduce market distortions, align incentives to promote sustainable use, and internalize costs and benefits; (5) A key feature of the ecosystem approach includes conservation of ecosystem structure and functioning; (6) Ecosystems must be managed within the limits of their functioning; (7) The ecosystem approach should be undertaken at the appropriate scale; (8) Recognising the varying temporal scales and lag effects which characterise ecosystem processes, objectives for ecosystem management should be set for the long term; (9) Management must recognise that change is inevitable; (10) The ecosystem approach should seek the appropriate balance between conservation and use of biodiversity; (11) The ecosystem approach should consider all forms of relevant information, including scientific, indigenous and local knowledge, innovations and practices; (12) The ecosystem approach should involve all relevant sectors of society and scientific disciplines ( Principles of the ecosystem approach, 2017) Integrated water resources management approach The concept of integrated water resources management (IWRM) is another approach aiming at addressing water-related issues around the globe. It is helpful for exploring the interconnected aspects of water quality, water uses, and water governance (Gamble et al., 2017). It can also be defined as a process of the coordinated development and management of water which aims to maximise the resultant economic and social welfare in an equitable manner without compromising the sustainability of vital ecosystems (Gamble et al., 2017). The IWRM approach should not be seen as a prescription, but rather as an approach that offers a practical framework within which the problem of different communities and countries can be addressed (Lenton & Muller, 2009, foreword) Adaptive management approach An adaptive management is another approach to water management. The word adaptation or adaptive capacity can be described as the ability of a system to adjust to climate change (including climate variability and extremes) to moderate potential damages, to 14

15 take advantage of opportunities, or to cope with the consequences (Pahl-Wostl et al., 2008, p. 8). In this context, adaptation can occur as a result of expected or unexpected climate change. Pahl-Wostl (2008) advocates for a water management regime a regime can be defined as implicit or explicit principles, norms, rules, and decision-making procedures around which actors expectations converge in a given area of international relations (Krasner, 1983, p. 2). Keohane and Nye (1977), define regimes as sets of governing arrangements, that include networks of rules, norms, and procedures that regularise behaviour and control its effects (p. 19). Regimes can also be defined as more specialised arrangements that pertain to well-defined activities, resources, or geographical areas and often involve only some subset of the members of international society (Young, 1989, p. 13). An adaptive water management regime advocated by Pahl-Wostl (2008) tends to rely strongly on participatory processes and active involvement of all actors. It suggests that polycentric governance that integrates bureaucratic hierarchies, markets, and network governance is more flexible and efficient than centralised governance systems, particularly in terms of the allocation of scarce resources in uncertain environments (Pahl-Wostl, 2008). A water management regime consists of active interaction between actors, formal connections (e.g., rules and regulations), and informal influence such as the political culture of participation (Pahl-Wostl et al., 2008). The adaptive approach is especially important when it comes to increased uncertainties of climate change as the conditions under which such regulations were passed may no longer be fulfilled, meaning that new risks need to be negotiated in participatory processes rather than being prescribed by law (Pahl-Wostl et al., 2008, p. 11). Most importantly, however, a key requirement for adaptive water management in combatting the impact of climate change is transboundary cooperation. In terms of the Mainland Southeast Asia 8, for instance, the Mekong River Commission (MRC) 9 successfully brought national, provincial and district authorities together. The Mekong River Commission (MRC) is a basin-wide river management organisation in Southeast Asia established twenty-two years ago that aims to protect the Mekong River s ecosystem, promote sustainable management and people s well-being. The four Lower Mekong countries developed rules covering the exchange 8 The Mainland Southeast Asia is divided into the countries of Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar (Burma), Thailand, Vietnam, and the small city-state of Singapore at the southern tip of the Malay Peninsula; Cambodia, Laos (the Lao PDR), and Vietnam, which occupy the eastern portion of the mainland, are often collectively called the Indochinese Peninsula (Leinbach & Frederick, 2009). 9 The Mekong River is a major river in Southeast Asia that runs through China (Tibet), Myanmar, Laos, Thailand, Cambodia, and Vietnam. 15

16 of information, monitoring water use and, most importantly, how to consult each other on water diversion activities. But for this to happen in the Brahmaputra basin, parties (i.e., China, India, and Bangladesh) must first foster mutual trust, provide open access to information, and be willing to clearly discuss potential uncertainties. Pahl-Wostl (2008) adds that the successful implementation of adaptive management requires transparency, providing all actors with clear and concise information. The author highlights that an appropriate framework of analysis must include the relationship between structure (water management regime) process (adaptive water management) outcome (sustainability of water system) (p. 5), because adaptive management is always shaped by the governance structure and thus represents an integral part of water governance. An essential feature of adaptive water management is the interdependence of all elements that guarantees the functioning of a regime. 16

17 3. Methodology The research objective of this bachelor thesis is to provide an analysis of transboundary water management in South Asia with a detailed picture of the Brahmaputra case. The thesis analyses the geopolitical (interstate) as well as regional (intrastate) aspects of the case; the social and environmental impacts of large-scale hydropower projects on downstream ecosystems and river-dependent populations; identifies relevant types of approaches to water management; and explores major hindrances to effective cross-border cooperation between the basin countries. The main aim is to help gain a better understanding of the issue and to show the main aspects of the phenomenon that this thesis analyses. The thesis applies two research methods case study and content analysis. The chosen methods enable to acquire information from a wide range of literature. Secondary literature consists of previous research, academic journals, reports, newspapers, and other sources where relevant information has been stored. For instance, the secondary literature includes research studies by Gareth Price and Sonali Mittra (2016); a publication by Dimple Roy, Jane Barr, and Henry D. Venema (2011); several reports published by the South Asia Water Initiative (SAWI); a chapter by Claudia Pahl-Wostl (2008) dealing with the adaptive water management; and the CNA 10 research study (2016). Other works by authors, including Brahma Challaney (2009; 2011; and 2013), Michael Buckley (2014; 2015), Jonathan Watts (2010), Elizabeth Economy & Michael Levi (2014), and Samaranayake et al. (2016), were helpful in terms of describing and interpreting the complexity of the sociopolitical and environmental reality of South Asia. In particular, this applies to the Brahmaputra basin and to rather difficult relationships between its three major riparian countries China, India, and Bangladesh. Further research and documents from global initiatives that were used to support findings of this thesis, include data from International Rivers 11, the United Nations Watercourses Convention (UNWC) and the World Commission on Dams (WCD). The study also benefited from the instructions of my external thesis consultant, Dr. Siegfried O. Wolf, an expert on South Asia, who provided invaluable insights on the Brahmaputra case. 10 CNA is not an acronym and is correctly referenced as CNA. It is a nonprofit research and analysis organisation located in Arlington, Virginia. 11 International Rivers has been at the heart of the global struggle to protect rivers and the rights of communities that depend on them. They cooperate with an international network of dam-affected people, grassroots organizations, environmentalists, human rights advocates and others who are committed to stopping destructive river projects and promoting better options. 17

18 3.1. Research design The research strategy of this thesis is divided into six main stages consisting of the (1) Problem formulation; (2) Conceptual framework; (3) Research method; (4) Research questions; (5) Collection of case study evidence and content analysis; and (6) Answering questions and assessment of findings. Each research method has its own advantages and disadvantages, and the strengths and weaknesses of various methods may often overlap (Yin, 2014). After reviewing the variety of methods in social science, I came to a conclusion that the case study research method and content analysis fit best to the subject matter of this thesis. The case study research method is commonly found in social science disciplines, such as psychology, sociology, political science, anthropology, social work, economics, education, and community planning as well as in the practicing professions (Yin, 2014). This research method was chosen due to the fact that it allows to focus on a contemporary phenomenon (the case ) in its holistic and real-world context and also because a case study have more variables of interest than data points it can include single or multiple cases, can be limited to quantitative evidence, and can be a useful method in doing an evaluation (Yin, 2014, abstract). In addition, the case study may be used as part of a larger mixed methods study. The methodological triangulation, also known as mixed method or multi-method can support the validity of the findings. The triangular method involves the use of multiple qualitative and/or quantitative methods (i.e., different sources of information) to study the subject, such as case studies, previous research studies, interviews, and results from surveys (Bryman, 2006). Different sources are often compared to see if similar results are being found. The main idea is to gain a better understanding from more than one perspective of an investigated phenomenon. Even though the case study method has been considered a soft form of research and often deals with a threat to the validity of research and rival explanations (Yin, 2014), it has the ability to provide a comprehensive analysis of a region-specific issue and lay the groundwork for potential future research. The choice of the case study method also depended largely on the chosen research questions that seek to explain the present circumstances as the thesis looks at how does the current transboundary water management work in South Asia and what implications it has for geopolitics, regional politics, local populations and environment. 18

19 Sources of evidence for the case study will be collected from relevant documents (some of them listed above). The data will be organised around concrete topics and central research questions. A major strength of the case study data collection is the opportunity to use many different sources of evidence which allows an investigator to address a broader range of historical and attitudinal issues (Yin, 2003, p ). According to Gillham (2000), case study can be used as a main method within which different sub-methods such as document (content) analysis can be used (p.13) Research questions Based on the increasing water-related issues around the world and the need to improve the water management and water sharing in places like South Asia, the research questions that are central to the subject matter of this case study are as follows: How does the current transboundary river management work in South Asia? Which approaches are relevant to cross-border water management? What are the social and environmental impacts of large dams on downstream ecosystems and river-dependent populations? What are the limits of climate-friendly hydroelectric industry? What are the alternative solutions to dams? What are the global initiatives advocating for solutions in transboundary water management? What are the main hindrances to effective cross-border cooperation in the Brahmaputra River Basin? 3.3. Outline of the thesis Chapter 1 presents background information about the water situation in South Asia and interprets the research problem as well as the objectives of the thesis. It also lists the main theoretical concepts of the study. Chapter 2 shows how transboundary river management works and what approaches are considered relevant for the subject matter of the thesis. Key concepts that make an essential component of the theoretical framework are identified here in greater detail. Chapter 3 describes the methodology, research design and research strategy of the thesis. 19

20 Chapter 4 provides an overview of the water situation along the three major cross-border river basins in the Indian subcontinent. In particular, it aims to provide a comprehensive picture of the Brahmaputra case and analyse the complexity of relationships between the major riparian countries China, India, and Bangladesh. Chapter 5 interprets the social and environmental implications of large-scale hydropower projects and presents the findings collected from a range of relevant sources. Chapter 6 lists several initiatives advocating for potential solutions in transboundary water management that were considered relevant for the water situation in South Asia. The concluding section seeks to discuss major hindrances to cross-border cooperation in the Brahmaputra basin and summarise the findings. 20

21 4. Major Transboundary River Basins in South Asia This chapter presents an overview of the water situation along the three major crossborder river basins in the Indian subcontinent the Indus, Ganges, and Brahmaputra. The sections 4.1. and 4.2. briefly describe the water situation in the Indus and Ganges basins. The 4.3. presents a detailed picture of the Brahmaputra case and further elaborates on the relationship between the individual riparian countries, China, India, and Bangladesh, and their current dambuilding activities. Figure 2. Map of the Indus, Ganges, and Brahmaputra basins Source: Samaranayake, Limaye, & Wuthnow,

22 4.1. The Indus River The Indus River (Sindhu 12 in Tibetan and Sanskrit) is one of the greatest Himalayan rivers and one of the longest in the world which flows also through the southeastern boundary of the disputed Kashmir region (Ahmad & Lodrick, 2017). On the Indus River, a number of dams and barrages have been built to distribute water from the eastern Indus tributaries to the Punjab and neighbouring states (Ahmad & Lodrick, 2017). Based on the Indus Waters Treaty of 1960, the Pakistan Water and Power Development Authority developed various linking canals and barrages 13 to divert water from its western rivers to areas in the east lacking water (Ahmad & Lodrick, 2017). Three major dams in Pakistan are the Mangla Dam on the Jhelum River near the town of Jhelum, the Tarbela Dam on the Indus, the generating capacity of which is some three times that of the Mangla Dam, and the Ghazi Barotha hydroelectric project (Ahmad & Lodrick, 2017). Besides the above listed three gigantic dams, there are multiple other barrages and canals created for irrigation purposes. Major barrages located on the Indus River are the Guddu, Sukkur, and Kotri, also known as the Ghulam Muhammad Barrage (Ahmad & Lodrick, 2017). However, the canal irrigation can also damage cultivated land because, as the water in unlined canals seeps through the soil and raises the water table, the soil becomes waterlogged and useless for cultivation (Ahmad & Lodrick, 2017) As irrigation by canals has expanded along the Indus and its tributaries, in some areas groundwater has risen above the surface to form shallow lakes. Elsewhere the water has evaporated in the intense summer heat, leaving behind layers of salt that make crop production impossible (Ahmad & Lodrick, 2017) The Ganges River The Ganges River (Ganga in Hindi) is rising in the Himalayas (Uttarakhand) and emptying into the Bay of Bengal (Ahmad & Lodrick, 2017). The use of the water from the Ganges for irrigation has been common since ancient times (Ahmad & Lodrick, 2017). The famous Farakka Barrage which is located at the Ganges delta in the Indian state of West Bengal, began diverting Ganges waters from the port of Kolkata south into India in 1976 (Ahmad & Lodrick, 2017). Since then, the Farakka Barrage has been the source of tension between India and Bangladesh because the barrage deprived southwestern Bangladesh of a substantial amounts 12 The Indus river s name derives from the Tibetan and Sanskrit name Sindhu this name is mentioned in the earliest hymns of the Aryan peoples of ancient India, the Rigveda, composed about 1500 BC. The Sindhu is also the source of India s name (Ahmad & Lodrick). 22

23 of needed water (Ahmad & Lodrick, 2017). As a result, in 1996, the two countries signed an agreement resolving the dispute by apportioning the waters of the Ganges between India and Bangladesh (Ahmad & Lodrick, 2017). This issue is addressed in greater detail in section The hydroelectric potential of the Indus, Ganges and Brahmaputra is enormous. However, the concern has grown over the environmental impact of hydroelectric dams, including habitat destruction for wildlife (terrestrial and aquatic), forced relocation of people living in the paths of dams and reservoirs, loss of agricultural land, and disruption of water supplies for inhabitants near the completed dams some have called for reductions in the amount of power generated, redesigning dams to make them and their impounded reservoirs less intrusive, and even moratoriums on future dam construction in some areas (Ahmad & Lodrick, 2017). Among the three major Himalayan rivers mentioned in this thesis, the Brahmaputra has been substantially under-examined, especially considering the complex geopolitics involved and potential threats to regional stability. Therefore, the following sections are dedicated to the problems related to the management of Brahmaputra s water and energy resources The Brahmaputra River The Brahmaputra River originates in Tibet as Yarlung Tsangpo and flows through China (Tibet), India, Bangladesh, and Bhutan. Despite the fact that the Brahmaputra basin spans four countries, the thesis primarily deals with the three major riparians China, India, and Bangladesh and their relations between one another. The Brahmaputra River is considered one of the greatest concentrations of river energy on earth and was long thought impossible to access due to its rugged, high-altitude terrain and the risk of water-related conflict with neighbouring countries (Watts, 2010). This is one of the main reasons why the Brahmaputra River has fewer dams than the other two major river basins in South Asia the Indus and Ganges (Samaranayake et al., 2016). However, since the waterways of mainland China are already packed with dams, a new resource of hydropower could come from only one place: the rivers of Tibet, because rivers gushing through deep canyons at the edges of the Tibetan plateau 14 hold the highest hydropower potential in the world (Buckley, 2015). In fact, the Brahmaputra was one of the world s last undammed rivers until 14 The hydropower development in Tibet is an essential part of China s campaign to Open Up the West launched in 2000 its main goal has been to encourage economic development in Western China (Samaranayake et al., 2016). 23

24 China began constructing a series of dams on sections upstream from the Brahmaputra Canyon (Chellaney, 2013). In India, where the river flows through the Indian states of Arunachal Pradesh and Assam, the Brahmaputra also accounts for about 30 per cent of the country s water runoff and constitutes a major source of potential hydropower (Chaturvedi, 2013). On the Indian territory, the basin is home to various unique ethnic groups and tribal communities who have a strong connection with the land and the river, both for economic and cultural reasons. However, the water flows coming from China and India are even more important for the lowest riparian country, Bangladesh, because the main sources of the river catchment area for the country come from outside its borders (Samaranayake et al., 2016) Danger imposed by Chinese large dams China s water resource quest as well as the idea of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project (SNWDP) 15, a broadly discussed water transfer plan, originated from a comment by Mao Zedong: The south has plenty of water, but the north is dry. If we could borrow some, that would be good (Kaiman, 2014, p. X). Since the approval of the SNWDP, the face of China s countryside has changed dramatically, particularly due to the large-scale infrastructure development, which represents a crucial part of the most ambitious inter-river and inter-basin transfer program ever conceived in the world (Chellaney, 2013, p. 238). Moreover, due to multiple environmental and social issues linked to the SNWDP project, China will have to resolve displacement of at least 275,000 people (Ghassemi & White, 2011). Most of China s hydropower projects in Tibet are planned in a seismically active region, which will most likely result in serious environmental damage and sociopolitical tensions. The location of dams and reservoirs is often in close neighbourhood with population centers. The human costs of China s massive water projects have always been high (Lovell, 2016). Since 1949, China has relocated a total of 22,9 million Chinese mostly poor villagers to make way for its water projects. Moreover, China holds a record number of the world s worst damrelated disasters The SNWDP was officially approved in 2002 (Kaiman, 2014) and consists of three Eastern, Middle, and Western routes, that transfer water from the Yangtze River to the water-stressed North China Plain, especially to the megacities of Beijing and Tianjin. 16 For instance, in a serial dam collapses in 1975, after a typhoon hit Henan province in Central China, at least 83,000 Chinese were killed and millions left homeless (Chellaney, 2013). 24

25 Michael Buckley (2014), for instance, points out that China now plans to divert water from some major rivers in Tibet to feed its desperate thirst for clean water (p. 13). Brahma Chellaney (2009) assumes that the diversion of the Brahmaputra s water is a matter China does not discuss in public, because the projects imply environmental devastation of India s northeastern plains and eastern Bangladesh, and would thus be akin to a declaration of water war on India and Bangladesh (see The Sino-Indian Water Divide ) China has already built its first hydroelectric dam on the Brahmaputra, known as the Zangmu Dam, and plans to construct several more in the near future. Besides the Zangmu, Tibet s largest existing hydropower project which became fully operational in October 2015, China has announced plans to construct at least three more dams along the Brahmaputra in Tibet (Samaranayake et al., 2016). Yong (2014) says that at least eleven hydropower stations are planned on the Brahmaputra River (the Yarlung Tsangpo) three along the middle reaches and nine at the canyon up to the Great Bend, where the river makes a U-turn from east to west just before the river enters the Indian state of Arunachal Pradesh (Economy & Levi, 2014). In addition, China s ambitions have recently shifted from building large dams to building mega-dams. One of such dams is a planned 38,000 megawatts (MW) (Lewis, 2013) project at Metog (known as Motuo in Chinese) on the upper reaches of the Brahmaputra in Tibet. This dam would, if created, represent the world s biggest 17 hydroelectric project that could perhaps save about 200 million metric tonnes of carbon dioxide, but would most likely lead to conflict over downstream water supply (Watts, 2010). China claims that a massive dam on the great bend of the Brahmaputra would benefit the world, despite the likely concerns of downstream nations, India and Bangladesh, which access water and power from the river (Watts, 2010). On the other hand, those who are skeptical about such claims (Lewis, 2013) argue that although hydroelectric dams produce considerably fewer carbon emissions than coal-fired power plants, China s assertion that dams provide clean energy is substantially untrue. For example, the rotting of inundated trees and vegetation in reservoirs emits greenhouse gasses, carbon dioxide and methane, that rise from reservoir surfaces. Moreover, the project at Metog would pose a serious threat not only to the Tibetan Plateau, but also to India and Bangladesh (Lewis, 2013). 17 By its size, the planned dam at Metog would be nearly double the size of the already existing Three Gorges Dam on the Yangtze River in Hubei province (Central China), the length of whose reservoir is longer than North America s Lake superior (Chellaney, 2013, p. 235) 25

26 In spite of this, China continues 18 to build more mega-dams in remote areas, even at the risk of damaging the last sanctuaries of biological and ethnic diversity and diminishing crossborder flows (Chellaney, 2015, p. 238). In addition, dams planned in Tibet not benefit those who live there, because the energy generated will be transferred to power-hungry and waterstressed industrial cities (Beijing and Tianjin) farther east, and many Tibetans will thus be forcibly deprived of their land (Buckley, 2015). Moreover, when protests against hydropower projects occur, they are prohibited or violently suppressed (Buckley, 2015). For many years now, the population in Tibet has been facing the reckless destruction of their fragile high-altitude environment (Buckley, 2014, p. 13). However, in view of the total number of China s population, an estimated 2,7 million Tibetans living inside the TAR will not play a major role in decision-making processes. Nowadays, a planned 38-gigawatt dam project concerns many Tibetans who consider Metog a sacred region, and environmental activists who warn against building such a huge project in a seismically active and ecologically fragile area (Watts, 2010). While some scholars like Tashi Tsering (cited in Watts, 2010) claim that the dam at Metog would be mainly for hydropower, not water diversion because the laws of physics will not allow water diversion from the Great Bend, others are convinced that the dam creation itself would most likely change living conditions dramatically. For instance, Peter Bosshard (cited by Watts, 2010) claims that blocking the upper reaches of the Brahmaputra could devastate the fragile ecosystem of the Tibetan plateau and withhold the river s sediments from the fertile floodplains of Assam in Northeast India and Bangladesh. Moreover, the dam will be located close to the McMahon Line, 19 a disputed and militarised border with India Danger imposed by Indian large dams 18 China and its state-run companies represent the largest global producer of hydropower and their objective is to further increasing this capacity to at least 450 gigawatts by China is the biggest financier and builder of dams (both at home and abroad) and boasts a greater number of large dams on its territory than the rest of the world combined. If dams of all sizes are counted, the total number of dams in China is close to 90,000, the majority of which was built during the post-mao period (Chellaney, 2013). 19 The McMahon Line constitutes a border between India and China, extending from east Bhutan to Myanmar. Historically, the Line is based on a British colonial claim, drawn as the frontier between British India and Tibet at the Shimla Conference in In 1949, however, the newly formed People s Republic of China refused to accept the McMahon Line. India, on the other hand, regarded the McMahon Line as a permanent international border. This discord became a major cause of tension between China and India in the 1950s and one of the main reasons for the Sino-Indian war of Today, the border is known as the Line of Actual Control that separates Indian-ruled land from Chinese-controlled territory. (Mitra, Wolf, & Schöttli, 2006; Florcruz, 2013). 26

27 India s dam mania started in the 1960s with the construction of the Bhakra Dam in northern India and became the symbol of India s green revolution 20, and was hailed by the then Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru as a Temple of Modern India (Bosshard, 2015). Despite initial successes and high expectations, badly managed irrigation schemes have resulted in waterlogged, saline soils and diminishing harvests, in response to which Nehru described the situation as the disease of giganticism in dam building (Bosshard, 2015). However, India s most controversial dam project is the Sardar Sarovar Dam 21 on the Narmada River initiated in 1979 (Mitra, Wolf, & Schöttli, 2006). The project resulted in the displacement of more than 250,000 primarily indigenous peoples (Bosshard, 2015). Across South Asia, minority voices and those who hold traditional knowledge and rely upon the rivers, both culturally and economically, have generally been ignored, leading to increased conflict over rivers (Price & Mittra, 2016). In spite of the threats that large dams pose, India and China continue to construct new projects on their precious rivers. In India, Arunachal Pradesh located in the northeastern part of the country is considered a new hotspot of global dam building and the future powerhouse of the country. India, along with China, is now building more dams than any other country on the globe (WCD, 2000). Not surprisingly, China is concerned about New Delhi s efforts to construct dams in Arunachal Pradesh as it could further strengthen India s actual control (see footnote 14) over the disputed region (Samaranayake et al., 2016). Arunachal Pradesh is the most geographically isolated state in India and is home to more than 20 indigenous tribal groups, the largest of which, the Nishi, totals around 300,000 people (Overdorf, 2012). Over all, however, fewer than 1,5 million sparsely distributed people reside in Arunachal Pradesh, making it an attractive prospect for dam builders (Overdorf, 2012). According to the Central Electricity Authority, more than 150 sites for large hydropower projects are located directly in the Brahmaputra basin, out of which more than 80 are in Arunachal 20 In the Indian context, the Green Revolution refers to the period from 1967 to 1978, during which an economic and agricultural development strategy introduced by Western aid organisations was applied to make India self-sufficient in food grains (Mitra, Wolf, & Schöttli, 2006). 21 The Sardar Sarovar Dam was first envisaged in the 1940s by Jawaharlal Nehru to control the immense Narmada River system. The World Bank financed the dam construction even though the project did not comply with the government s conditional environmental clearance. In the mid-1980s, the Narmada Bachao Andolan (Save the Narmada Movement), a coalition of social movements and NGOs, created strong international public pressure to stop the dam. As a result, the World Bank had to withdraw from the project in 1994 after an independent review found systematic violations of its social and environmental policies. (See Mitra, Wolf, & Schöttli, 2006; Bosshard, 2008; 2015) 27

28 Pradesh. 22 The largest dam is currently planned in India s most seismically active region; the 2,000 MW Lower Subansiri Hydroelectric project on the Subansiri River in Arunachal Pradesh is to be located near North Lakhimpur, a town situated on the border of Assam and Arunachal Pradesh (Overdorf, 2012). The high-risk projects caused the opposition to dam-building to keep growing. Besides the Lower Subansiri, other major hydroelectric power plants of more than 1,000 MW capacity are planned for the Brahmaputra s tributaries, such as Dibang, Siang, Siyom, and Lohit (Overdorf, 2012). Opponents of these projects argue that it could wipe out thousands of acres of breathtaking forest, dozens of fascinating tribal cultures and some of the world s best whitewater for adventure tourism (Overdorf, 2012). Protests against mega-dams that threaten the local environment and communities are usually barely reported in the media (Sharma, 2012), both in China and India. Demonstrations are either organised against domestic projects, or against the upper riparian actors that pose a threat to communities living downstream and could lead to discord among states. In particular, protests against China s hydropower projects that threaten livelihoods in downstream countries (Lewis, 2013) deserve increased attention. In 2014, for instance, several anti-dam organisations in Assam (India) raised their voices against the reported completion of a major hydropower project by China on the upper reaches of the Brahmaputra in Tibet; some activists even threatened to lay siege to the Chinese embassy in New Delhi (Karmakar, 2014). Besides the protests against the upper riparian s dam building activities, there are also multiple demonstrations against large dams within Arunachal Pradesh itself. For example, during a recent protest in Tawang, 23 a small town in Arunachal Pradesh located in the Eastern Himalayas near India s border with China and Bhutan, at least two participants were killed by the police during a protest against the construction of large dams in an ecologically, culturally, and strategically sensitive district (The Third Pole, 2016). Recently, the government of Arunachal Pradesh signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) with various private companies on hundred big and small hydroelectric projects in Arunachal Pradesh. Of those hundred, thirteen were meant to be located directly in the Tawang district. Several groups 22 According to Yong (2014), both public and private companies have proposed 168 massive dams in total, to produce 57 gigawatts of hydropower in Northeast India. 23 Tawang is one of the unresolved border issues between India and China. To the north it borders Tibet and to the south west it lies next to Bhutan (Mitra, Wolf, & Schöttli, 2006). This region was occupied by Chinese troops in 1962 and, together with the rest of Arunachal Pradesh, China continues to claim this entire area and considers it part of South Tibet. (See also footnote 5.) 28