Technologies for Water Resource Management: An Integrated Approach to Manage Global and Regional Water Resources

Transcription

1 UCRL-ID Technoogies for Water Resource Management: An Integrated Approach to Manage Goba and Regiona Water Resources W. C. Tao M. J. Fuss A. F. B. Tompson D. L. Ermak S. Niemeyer This ia an infamm report intended primariy for interna or imited externa distribution. Tbeopinionsand mncusionsstatedare thaseoftheautharand may or my not be those of the Laboratory. Work performed under the auspices of the U.S. Department of Energy by the Lawrence Livermore Nationa Laboratory under Contract W-740~F&-48

2 DISCLAIMER This document was prepared as an acwunt of work sponsored by an agency of the United States Government Neither the United States Government nor the University of Caifornia nor any of their empoyees, makes any warranty, express or impied, or assumes any ega iabiity or responsibiity for the accuracy, competeness, or usefuness of any information, apparatus, product, or process discosed, or represents that its use woud not infringe privatey owned rights Reference herein to any specific commercia product, process, or service by trade name, trademark, manufacturer, or otherwise, does not necessariy constitute or impy its endorsement, recommendation, or favoring by the United States Government or the University of Caifornia The views and opinions of authors expressed herein do not necessariy state or refect those of the United States Govemment or the University of Caifornia, and sha not be used for advertising or product endorsement purposes This report has been reproduced directy from the best avaiabe copy Avaiabe to DOE and DOE contractors from the Office of Scientific and Tecbnic.4 Mom~ation P 0 Box 62, Oak Ridge, TN Prices avaiabe from (423) Avaiabe to the pubic from the Nationa Technica Information Service US Department of Commerce 5285 Port Roya Rd, Springfied, VA 22161

3 Technoogies for Water Resource Management: An Integrated Approach to Manage Goba and Regiona Water Resources March 23, 1998 Wiiam C. Tao, Chemistry and Materia Science Directorate Michae J. FIUSS, Chemistry and Materias Science Directorate Andrew F. B. Tompson, Environmenta Programs Directorate Donad L. Ermak, Environmenta Programs Directorate Sidney Niemeyer, Chemistry and Materia Sciences Directorate Lawrence Livermore Nationa Laboratory page 1 LDRDTracking# 97-FS-005

4 Executive Summary Recent droughts in Caifornia have highighted and refocused attention on the probem of providing reiabe sources of water to sustain the State s future economic deveopment. Specific eements of concern incude not ony the stabiity and avaiabiity of future water suppies in the State, but aso how current surface and groundwater storage and distribution systems may be more effectivey managed and upgraded, how treated wastewater may be more widey recyced, and how egisative and reguatory processes may be used or modified to address conficts between advocates of urban growth, industria, agricutura, and environmenta concerns. Caifornia is not aone with respect to these issues. They are ceary reevant throughout the West, and are becoming more so in other parts of the US. They have become increasingy important in deveoping and highy popuated nations such as China, India, and Mexico. They are criticay important in the Midde East and Southeast Asia, especiay as they reate to regiona stabiity and security issues. Indeed, in amost ah cases, there are underying themes of reiabiity and sustainabiity that pertain to the assurance of current and future water suppies, as we as a broader set of stabiity and security issues that reate to these assurances--or ack thereof--to the poitica and economic future of various countries and regions. In this atter sense, and with respect to regions such as China, the Midde East, and Southeast Asia, water resource issues may take on a very serious strategic nature, one that is most iustrative and centra to the emerging notion of environmenta security. In this report, we have identified a suite of technica toos that, when deveoped and integrated together, may prove effective in providing regiona governments the abiity to manage their water resources. Our goa is to formuate a framework for an Integrated Systems Anaysis (ISA): As a strategic panning too for managing regiona water resources; As an evauation too for seecting appropriate remediation technoogies for recaiming water; and As an assessment too for determining the effectiveness of impementing the remediation technoogies. We have incuded a discussion on the appropriate strategy for LLNL to integrate its technica toos into the goba business, geopoitica, and academic communities, whereby LLNL can form partnerships with technoogy proponents in the commercia, industria, and pubic sectors page 2

5 I. Introduction The Imuortance of W ater Resource Management A recent study by the Caifornia Department of Water Resources estimated that by the year 2020, without additiona faciities or improved water management, Caifornia coud experience annua water shortages of up to 9 miion acre feet (twice the storage capacity of Shasta reservoir) during dry years From the perspective of many suppiers and users, water suppies in the state are becoming increasingy ess reiabe. Just the economic impiications of managing a rea or perceived imited suppy of water for the state into the next century are very costy. Indeed, increased competition for water resources is making their management a crucia and compicated issue invoving many different poitica, ega, economic, and socia factors Caifornia is, in many respects, ahead of the pack in deaing with these issues, but suffers from ack of progress in many significant areas. The State has one of the most sophisticated surface water storage and deivery systems in the word (State Water Project; Centra Vaey Project). The Metropoitan Water District in Southern Caifornia, for exampe, has begun the construction of an expensive $2 biion reservoir to reduce their susceptibiity to future drought. The Orange County Water district is panning to acceerate their aggressive water reuse and groundwater recharge practices so as to become independent of imported suppies. Nevertheess, uncertainties continue to make panning and management of surface water fows and their storage and distribution systems difftcut over both the short and ong terms (fooding versus drought); groundwater aocation and use practices are notoriousy uncoordinated, unmanaged, and abused; and the economic differences between agricutura and urban water practices are quite wide. The Internationa Stratepic Nature of the Probem The Peope s Repubic of China (PRC) is one of the word s fastest deveoping nations. It faces a major crisis in the management, aocation, and quaity of its water resources and acks any systematic or integrated approach to assess the seriousness of the water crisis or to pan an overa improvement of its water resource systems. The crisis is exempified by the competition for water among the agricutura and industria interests in the bread basket provinces of Sichuan, and the traditiona abuse or ignorance of environmenta impacts with respect to fettiizets, industria contamination, and reease of poory treated or untreated domestic wastewaters. Moreover, the crisis is exacerbated further by popuation growth and the tremendous desire for economic stabiity and rapid modernization in both the agricutura and industria sectors. The Midde East is characterized by an arid cimate, growing settements and popuations, and a sparse distribution of water resources that knows no poitica boundary. Even in the absence of poitica stress, contention for water resources is a serious issue in the entire region, and is deat with via a wide spectrum of technica capabiities-ranging from the more modem and sophisticated perspectives in the case of Israe, to the basic and argey uncoordinated approaches in the case of Syria. Given the added tenuous and possiby unstabe poitica reationships existing within Israe and the new Paestinian States, or between Israe and other neighboring countries, water is becoming the strategic resource in the region, and a critica factor in the overa regiona security, In the case of the Peace Initiative between Israe and Jordan, the sharing of water resources has become the cornerstone for confidence buiding and joint regiona panning. Southeast Asia is comprised of the coection of archipeago-ike countries caed Phiippines, Indonesia, Maaysia, and Brunei, and peninsuas such as Thaiand, and Singapore. The subterranean hydroogic character of these countries are primariy porous imestone, with both interconnected and isoated pockets Page 3 LDRD Trackiig # 97-FS-005

6 of freshwater. Over the ast two decades, industriaization within these respective countries has resuted in acceerated pumping and extraction of freshwater from the underground acquifers, and in so doing, increased the rate of sat intrusion from the surrounding ocean. Without a panned active recharge program to preserve and rejuvenate the underground acquifers, it is ony a matter of time before underground freshwater sources are eiminated. The surface terrain of these countries are primariy mountainous due to the continuous redefinition of the topography by vocanic activity and tectonic movement Without a stmtegy for ong range panning of catchment faciities, the majority of the precipitation from annua torrentia rainfas eads to immediate runoffs, which contributes to surface and soi erosion and contamination of surface freshwater sources. The governments in these countries, faced with continued popuation growth and the country s demand to industriaize, are confronted with a monumenta task to preserve, regenerate, and pan the ong-term use of their avaiabe freshwater suppy. Technoogica Advancements for ManaeinP Water Resources Progressive management strategies wi be required to find baances among growing urban demands, finite and frequenty uncertain suppies, water quaity and reuse issues, and other environmenta and ega constraints. These, in turn, wi require new and more advanced methods for anaysis, forecasting, treatment, and abatemento support reiabe and responsibe poicies for addressing these probems in the future. Over the ast decade, LLNL has deveoped a suite of nove, cutting-edge technica toos for the integrated anaysis of surface and subsurface water resources probems. These toos incude Regiona precipitation and riverfow forecasting - a unique couped approach (CARS) for directy inking short term (48 hr) precipitation forecasts to river fow and river stage predictions to provide a more reiabe, rea-time basis for making decisions with respect to food and reservoir management issues Detai regiona 3D groundwater basin modeing studies - a unique arge-scae groundwater fow and transport mode (PARFLOW) for simuating groundwater fow and chemica migration processes in arge, three-dimensiona systems Advanced isotopic measurements for water management appications - a suite of nove and robust isotope techniques used as a powerfu diagnostic too to fingerprint sources of surface and groundwater, track their trave pathways and fow rates, and assess origins of the water s chemica constituents. In order for these toos to be integrated cohesivey, we have deineated, within each technoogy area, the primary focus of the scientific research in order to enabe the integration of these capabiities and to enhance our abiity to address probems of interest to potentia nationa and internationa sponsors. Our efforts shoud focus on: 1. Achieve more accurate simuations in precipitation and surface hydroogy by addressing major issues of uncertainty in our couped precipitation and surface fow modeing capabiity, incuding the abiity to treat grid- and subgrid-scae precipitation processes, optimize terrain representations, and improve our surface hydroogy modes. 2. Enhance the PARFLOW groundwater fow and transport mode so that it can address critica groundwater issues for water resource managers and demonstrate its advantages over the widey used MODPLOW mode. 3. Deveop advanced isotopic tracer technoogies for both surface and groundwater appications, with emphasis on the chaenging issue of inking water quaity, e.g. assessing the origins of the water s chemica constituents and their degradation pathways, with management of water resources. Page 4

7 II. LLNL Water Resource Management Technoogies RePiona nrecioitation and riverfow forecasting LLNL has deveoped a unique couped approach for directy inking short term (48 hr) precipitation forecasts to river fow and river stage predictions to provide a more reiabe, rea-time basis for making decisions with respect to food and reservoir management issues. The Couped Atmosphere-Riverfow Simuation (CARS) system has been assembed at LLNL as a patform to ink the Mesoscae Atmospheric Simuation (MAS) mode, the Soi-Pant-Snow (SPS) mode, and a surface runoff and riverfow mode (TOPMODEL). The MAS mode predicts regiona scae atmospheric dynamics and subsequent rainfa and snowfa within the mode domain, whie the SPS mode is interactivey couped with the MAS mode to redistribute snow and rainfa within the upper soi ayers, pant canopy, and existing snowpack by various physica processes such as evapotranspiration, intitration, runoff, and increase/decrease of surface snowpack. The SPS mode redistributes water at and surfaces by soving the surface energy and water baance equation with parameterized pant physioogy as a function of the season, species, and atmosphere-soi environment. The TOPMODEL is used to route rainfa over variaby-vegetated topographic surfaces into streams, rivers, and akes, and aso as infihration into near-surface sois and root zones over times scaes consistent with the overa storm events. Infitration is either redistributed to the atmosphere through pant evapotranspiration processes, accumuated as additiona storage in the unsaturated soi zone, or discharged to deeper groundwaters or back to the surface, In addition, an Automated Land Anaysis System (ALAS) has been deveoped to faciitate direct appication of CARS to arbitrary watersheds. ALAS uses digita eevation data to identify the ocation, boundary, area, and hydroogic characteristics of watersheds and can produce topographic information for a watershed at any desired spatia resoution. To date, LLNL researchers have competed the topographic data sets for the Russian River and the American River basins and are currenty working on the Feather River and Lake Shasta Infow basins. The CARS system can be nested within arge-scae atmospheric data to produce weather predictions and cimate research over imited-area domains. At present, the MAS mode is used to produce daiy numerica weather predictions (NWP) and quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPF) for 48-hr periods, and the water resources and hydrocimate simuations over the entire winter season for Caifornia and southwestern United States using the data from the Nationa Meteoroogica Center. During the January 1995 foods, TOPMODEL cosey simuated the river fow at the Hopand gauge station within the Russian River basin The MAS simuated QPF during the January 1995 food aso showed very good accuracy compared to observations. These activities have received great interest within the state and nationa arena. As a resut of this work, specific interactions and new coaborative activities have been deveoped with the Caifornia Division of Water Resources, Nationa Weather Service, Nationa Center for Atmospheric Research, and ocay through a Campus-Laboratory-Coaboration (CLC) project between LLNL, Scripps Institute of Oceanography, UC Davis, and UC Irvine. Detai regiona 3D eroundwater basin modeine studies LLNL has deveoped a unique arge-scae groundwater fow and transport mode (PAFCFLDW) for simuating groundwater fow and chemica migration processes in arge, three-dimensiona systems. The origina focus of PAEIFLOW was to enabe detaied simuations of contaminant migration and remediation processes in naturay compex (heterogeneous) subsurface formations and to use the power of high performance (parae) computing to support Monte Caro uncertainty and risk anaysis studies from a probabiistic perspective. page5

8 In a coaboration with the Orange County Water District (OWCD), LLNL researchers appied PARFLoW to the arge coasta groundwater basin managed by the District. The nove capabiities of this mode (unavaiabe in most groundwater resource simuation packages) was expoited to support the anaysis and design of current and future water management strategies that are now under consideration. These incude for most the abiity to treat very arge 3D probems using massivey parae computing, and the abiity to hierarchicay increase spatia resoution to very fine eves during the caibration process as required to resove transport phenomena. OCWD currenty manages basinwide groundwater production that provides over 70% of the drinking water for 2 miion residents. They have been abe to achieve this by estabishing an active groundwater recharge program in which the base fow of the Santa Ana River is purposey reintroduced into the subsurface via diversions into infitration basins. Future pans ca for acceerating this recharge by pumping additiona treated wastewaters into these basins from their sewage treatment pant. This wi reduce dependence on imported water suppies, but require a more carefu understanding of the recharge processes for management purposes. Utimatey, OCWD, ike most metropoitan areas that must baance water usage between industria and urban sectors, is interested in 1. the impacts of additiona aquifer recharge, incuding estimates of which suppy wes may produce the additiona water and when, 2. residence times of the newy recharged (waste) waters, with respect to when such waters may be safey pumped for ater domestic use (foowing State Division of Heath Services guideines), 3. buid up of dissoved sats and organics in groundwater as a resut of ong term recycing practices, 4 the ong term viabiity of their sat water barrier near the coast (which inject treated waste waters through barrier wes) The modeing appication wi utimatey be driven by the more pressing issues of water quaity, in addition to water quantity aone, Because of this, it wi require a tine degree of spatia resoution to track the migration and residence times of the recharged and recyced waters; this, in turn, easiy pays into PARFLOW S targeted capabiities and makes appication of competitive modes in a fuy 3D mode much more difftcut The OCWD is widey recognized as one of the nation s premier water districts for pioneering innovative approaches to water resource management. The broad OCWD goa is to provide a high-quaity, reiabe, and affordabe water suppy, and they are presenty focusing on greaty expanding its use of recyced wastewater for groundwater recharge purposes. These activities have received great interest within Orange County and wi actuay be inked with severa isotopic studies of their water being carried out by the isotope sciences division of LLNL. Advanced isotopic measurements for water manapement auuications LLNL has been deveoping a number of nove and diverse appications of isotope hydroogy for soving a number of water resource probems. The isotopic character of water can be used as powerfu, diagnostic too to fingerprint sources of surface and groundwater, track their trave pathways and fow rates, and assess origins of the water s chemica constituents. These can be used as a compement to numerica modes for vaidation and caibration purposes, or in an independent mode as a quick, cost effective aternative for oca water resource decision makers to gain insight into system behavior. LLNL operates a variety of sophisticated faciities for measuring the most minute isotopic compositions on a reguar production mode basis. Our capabiities incude acceerator mass spectrometry for ow-eve detection of ong-ive radionucides (14~. 36~1, 1291X nobe-gas mass spectrometry (tritium-heium dating, recharge temperatures, artificia tracers), therma-ionization mass spectrometty (Sr, U, Pb, & Nd isotopes), stabe-gas mass spectrometty (H, 0, C, & N isotopes), ICP-MS (trace eement abundance by isotope diution), and radiation counting techniques using apha, beta, and gamma detectors. The breadth page 6 LDRD Track& # 97-FS-005

9 of these isotopic faciities exceed those avaiabe at any other aboratory. An added benefit of our breadth of capabiities is that experts on a the various instruments and from varying scientific background coaborate on the design and interpretation of the experimenta studies. Recent work at LLNL has focused mosty on groundwater studies in severa areas in Caifornia. The eariest project with the Orange County Water District invoved identification of an isotopic fingerprint of historicay recyced water such that its trave time (age), migration patterns, and chemica evoution of its constituent organic materias coud be discerned. LLNL researchers were abe to show, for exampe, that injected wastewaters at their sat water barrier wes took 2.5 years to reach the nearest production we, satisfying an empirica -year residence time requirement. Simiiary, isotopic methods were used to assess the fate and distribution of OCWD s historicay recharged waters introduced through the infdtration basins. Initia resuts suggest the groundwater fow system is highy stratified, and this wi be au important factor in understanding the overa transport pathways away from these basins. LLNL researchers have aso been engaged in a contractua groundwater isotope study for the City of Brentwood and the East Contra Costa Irrigation District. Here, the aboratory s technoogy has deveoped and has been used in ieu of any appreciabe hydrogeoogica modeing The resuts have provided a quantitative framework in which the ong- and short-term sustainabiity of their groundwater resources under various growth and and use scenarios coud be more effectivey assessed. Recommendations were provided to hep: 1. maximize water quaity over the panning scenarios, 2. address the ong-term need for aternative water suppies, 3. evauate future groundwater production from a basin scae point of view, and 4. finding previousy untapped groundwater suppies in this area. Recenty LLNL researchers conducted surface water study that sought to deineate the sources of water for the very high fow springs in the southern Cascades, These springs are situated in fractured rock in active vocanic regions, and in some areas these springs are the major direct sources of the regiona rivers. In genera, the isotope resuts showed that the primary recharge ocation was the high eevation, high precipitation areas that are up to 50 km away from the springs. Carbon isotopes aso identified three distinct carbon reservoirs, incuding dissoved carbon from vocanic gas emissions. Preiminary carbon isotope measurements in the Pit River as a function of fow voume suggests that these data might be used to quantify the contributions of different sources as a function of storm intensity. These exampes iustrate LLNL s isotopic approach to water management issues. The scientific accompishments to date incude: 1. deveoped unique combined isotope approach to generate definitive rest&s for water management, and then demonstrated the viabiity of such an approach; 2. first to use nobe gas abundances for tracing recharge dynamics in young groundwater systems; 3. first to isotopicay characterize recaimed waste water for subsurface tracing; 4. chamcterized and quantified agricutura recharge in Caifornia s Centra Vaey and inked water quaity to water use; and 5. deveoped isotope mass baance approach to predicting groundwater resource avaiabiity. These achievements and the deveopment of this capabiity aso incudes coaborative and funded projects with the Kansas Geoogica Survey, Yoo County Pubic Works Department, U.S. Army, Caifornia Department of Water Resources (Northern District), U.S. Park Service! U.S. Geoogica Survey, San gtuo Water Pass Agency, Boye Engmeenng, Pacific Gas & Eectnc, and DOE Nevada Operations page 7

10 Ongoing Research and Deveopment are focused on three areas: 1. Deveopment of the atmospheric physics submode capabiities to provide accurate precipitation simuation in the compex mountainous regions of the western US, a) Ftauiamenta scienhfic chaenge. deveop increase capabiiry to more accuratey represent the spatia distribution of rainfa over compex topographic regions through improved coud microphysics submodes and parameterization of sub-grid scae variation of rainfa-runoff processes 2. Expansion of the hydroogic database to key watersheds in the Caifornia region where the improved CARS system can be integrated with the groundwater modeing capabiity (described in the foowing sectionsj; a) Funakenta scientific chaenge: deveop a more sophisticated treatment of surface water components for the PARFLOW groundwater mode and demonstrate the appication of this mode for regiona water resource management at an unprecedented degree of spatia resoution 3. A modeing system evauation study that utiizes the isotope tracer capabiities (described in the foowing sections) within the seected watershed region. a) Fundamenta scienttfk chaenge. deveop isotopic methods for addressing groundwater quaity issues of contaminant transport and chemica degradation, and incorporate isotopic data into the PARFLOW mode Page 8

11 III. Business Deveopment and Marketing Strategy Severa important and key eements are associated with successfu projects, designed and executed so they produce significant scientific and technoogica contributions, that hep decision makers form poicies and set priorities and practices in the environmenta arena. These eements have aowed LLNL to uniquey expoit the capabiities in Water Resources Managementhus far, and incude: Partner with coaborators and cients eary-on to deveop a mutua trust and confidence, Buid on this trust, identify needs and requirements of the cients, and determine how these needs and requirements tit into their anaysis resources, and Formuate technica resources through research, deveopment and testing around the needs and requirements of the cient, i.e., appications dictate the resource requirements and not the other way around. A ist of our oca and nationa coaborators and sponsors are summarized in Appendix I Business DeveoDment Strategy The overa strategy to deveoping both a domestic and internationa customer base for the Integrated Systems Approach revoves around 1) partnering with the cient from the beginning to identify their requirements, 2) appying the Water Resource Management toos to address their needs whie concurrenty incorporating their input into LLNL s R&D guideines for refining and integrating our suite of technica capabiities, and 3) working with the cient to deveop a broader appication of the Integrated Systems Approach to anaysis and panning. LLNL shoud focus the business deveopment strategy on three groups of customers: Federa Agencies - LLNL researcher shoud continue to work cosey with domestic federa agencies, especiay those in Caifornia, who are responsibe for managing watershed resources. The reationships aready buit with these customers wi aow LLNL to use their arena as a test bed, and funding aready received from these agencies wi be everaged against other investments. US Industry - LLNL continues to work with severa major US Industries with a track record of winning federa procurements for environmenta management, restoration, and remediation contracts. The goa is to estabish ega and strategic teaming arrangements so that our Integrated Systems Approach wi be used for panning various remediation actions. Internationa Partner - The aboratory shoud work with China and Midde East countries to estabish a partnership for impementing our Integrated Systems Approach for studying their watershed resource management issues and for recommending restoration and remediation actions. This wi coupe back into our partnership with US Industries for impementing some of LLNL s technoogies for water resources ceanup and remediation This business strategy depends on the deveopment of a programmatic funding base that must incude a baseine fnnder(s) and an aggomeration of smaer projects that provide a sustainabe funding base for the Integrated Systems Approach for Water Resources Management. This funding structure wi provide LLNL with a steady resource base to invest simutaneousy in deveoping the next generation of cuttingedge technoogy and in customizing the Integrated Systems Anaysis capabiity to suit the different needs of various customers. At the writing of this report, the authors beieve that LLNL s baseine funding shoud be derived from federa agencies such as the Departments of Energy, State, Commerce, and Defense. The Integrated Systems Approach to Water Resource Management provides for these funders the too to engage on an Page 9 LDRD Track& # 97-FS-00.5

12 internationa eve with countries such as China and goba regions such as the Midde East and Southeast Asia in addressing environmenta and security issues. The reationship between these water resource issues and nationa security objectives makes this an especiay appropriate environmenta initiative for LLNL. This interagency and intergovernmenta approach aows LLNL to make an internationa impact with its science and technoogy, gain funding from estabished baseine funding agencies, and fufi one of its aboratory missions, whie minimizing the exposure to risks associated with the poitics of water resource management. Business Marketing and Exit Strategies The aboratory s exit pans shoud be centered on the deveopment of further coaborative work and sponsors in the oca and nationa arena, as we as the initiation of partnerships and additiona coaborations in the internationa arena, with a specific emphasis on China, the Southeast Asia area, and the Midde East. Future work and coaborations must focus on the deveopment of the most appropriate appication of our unique and integrated capabiities. Inroads to the PRC have aready been estabished via the DOE Nationa Labs technica exchange programs with PRC s China Academy of Engineering Physics (CAEP) and China Nationa Nucear Corporation (CNNC) Institutes. A series of workshops were conducted at LLNL in June, 1996, (Materias Database, Atmospheric Dispersion Modeing) and in Beijing in August (Industria Ecoogy, Nucear Reactor Safety, and Materias Protection and Contro) to further deveop our partnership with China. LLNL has received an informa request from Israe to estabish a ab-to-ab program to address regiona stabiity and security issues. This wi serve as the initia framework for partnering with countries in the Midde Fast. The incorporation of an industria infrastructure into an agricutura base society, its impact and consequences in the environmenta arena, and the management of resources are the major focus of PRC s Agenda 21 program. Towards the deveopment of a ong term resource investment strategy, PRC has estabished various Specia Administrative Regions (SARs) to foster the demonstration, impementation, and industria partnerships of environmenta reated technoogies This framework provides an idea starting point for partnering with the PRC to demonstrate the usefuness of our Integrated Systems Anaysis for managing water resources. Our focus with the PRC and Korea wi be aong the ines of: Modeing arge-scae atmosphere-soi-crop response for time scaes of 4%hr. to a season; Predicting the impact of arge-scae variabiity on regiona water resources and agricuture; Diagnosis of hydro-cimate and the response of crops and forests; Characterizing the degree of water quaity, ocating sources of contamination, and mapping the transport of poutants in rivers and groundwaters (especiay for China); Anticipating the impact of and-produced water poution on coasta ecosystem such as the Yeow Sea. A second important component of the business deveopment strategy is to estabish an equitabe teaming arrangement with severa US Industries, whose main business ines are federa and private contracts for environmenta management, restoration, and remediation. This arrangement aows LLNL to receive funds, in the form of both Federa and Non-Federa WFOs, for impementing the Integrated Systems Approach for Water Resources Management and the various environmenta remediation technoogies that we have deveoped for the restoration of our own site. The goa is to appy LLNL s Integrated Systems Anaysis as a strategic panning too for managing regiona water resources, an evauation too for seecting appropriate remediation technoogies for recaiming water, and an assessment too for determining the effectiveness of impementing the remediation technoogies. page 10

13 Internationa Business Deveoument Strateq In forming the business pan for the appication of LLNL s Water Resource Management expertise in the Internationa arena, the aboratory shoud first focus on The Peope s Repubic of China, Southern Pacific Rim, Hong Kong, South Korea, Singapore, and the Midde East (specificay, Israe). For each of these potentia internationa customer and business partners, we have identified the foowing metrics as a mean of evauating the potentia of LLNL in estabishing a business partnership with the customer and in getting funding for the work Reevance and importance of Water Resource Management to the customer. Current interactions and contact between LLNL and Customer, incuding deveopment of initia contacts, current coaborations, proposas submitted for funding, and work funded at LLNL Major Programs anticipated in the next 3-5 years from the customer. Major Efforts anticipated in 3-5 years from the internationa scene Current efforts in marketing and business deveopment, incuding workshops in promoting our product, site visitation, and other coaborations and discussions The Peoue s Reuubic of China Reevance and imnortance of Watershed Resource Management to the PRC The Peope s Repubic of China (PRC) is one of the word s fastest deveoping nations facing a major crisis in water resource management, water poution, and the ack of an integrated systems approach to assess the seriousness of the water crisis in order to deveop a strategy for remediation. Without an overa pan on how to manage its water resources, PRC does not have a framework from which to coordinate with the provincia governments in order to impement the necessary technoogies, some of which are we deveoped, to cean up the pouted potabe water suppy. More importanty, PRC does not have a resource managementoo to guide the distribution of their water resources between the agricutura usage and the industria deveopment sectors, both of which are necessary to he maintained in order to sustain the popuation and the pan for modernization. A vivid exampe of the competition for water resources is found in the province of Sichuan, one of the argest and most popuated region ocated in the centra part of the PRC. Surrounded by mountains, which serves as an idea moderator for the cimate and provides a natura water coection and storage system, the province of Sichuan is the bread basket for over haf the popuation of PRC. This province is aso an industria deveopment hub for the PRC because of the heavy industria infrastructure estabished since W W II (the mountains provided a natura and impenetrabe ine of defense against the Japanese forces). The Sichuan provincia government is faced with the primary probem of how to distribute the avaiabe water suppy to the agricutura community and to the industria and manufacturing sectors booming a over the province. Without guidance from the centra government or an understanding of how to coect for, aocate from, recaim for, and recharge into the watershed, the provincia government is eft with the simpe poicy of first come - with the most money -first served. The misuse and misaocation of the avaiabe water suppy has ed to a serious contamination of the underground water system, which has often ed to fata consequences for the oca popuation. These sources of contamination incude nitrates from the use of fertiizer throughout the agricutura community, discharge of waste water and industria sovent both onto and and into the rivers, and the eaching of contaminates from storm water discharge into the rivers. The concentrations of various voatie organic contaminants (.VOCs) from the toxic sovents used in the paper pup manufacturing industry aone are many orders of magnitude above our domestic MCLs for these VOCs. This has ed to the sporadic Page 11

14 shutdown of the paper manufacturing industry ai over the country in order to aow for the diution of the VGCs by natura water recharge systems. The Integrated Systems Approach to Watershed Resource Management can hep the PRC and the Sichuan provincia government to estabish a pan for storage, aocation, recamation, and remediation of their water suppy. The foowing is an exampe scenario of how the PRC can use LLNL s Integrated Systems Anaysis: Use the Atmospheric Modeing component to determine the cycica interaction between rainfa, coection, evaporation, and discharge; this wi provide basis to pan for coection and storage facitities. Use the Isotope Fingerprinting component to determine the surface fowpaths, drainage, and recharge effects on the subsurface hydroogy s abiity to fiter, absorb, and disseminate contaminants; this wi provide an identification of the subsurface connectivity between various aquifers. Use the Subsurface 3D Modeing component to understand the rate of dispersion of contaminants and evauate different scenarios of recharge and remediation; this wi provide the basis of how to cyce the watershed via recharge and how to pan for remediation of the pouted water. Use the entire Integrated Systems Anaysis to design an acceerated ceanup pan for various subregions in the Sichuan province; this pan may empoy conventiona technoogies such as Pump and Treat, to advanced technoogies such as Capacitive Deionization fitering of contaminants. Current interactions and contact between LLNL and the PRC As of the writing of this report, the Department of Energy through severa of its Nationa Laboratories (LLNL, LLNL, and SNL) has estabished a forma channe for interactions with its counterpart, the China Academy of Engineering Physics (CAEP), in the PRC. The objectives of these interactions are to engage the PRC in discussions, technica exchanges, and eventua coaborations in the areas of Nonproiferation, Arms Contro, Technoogies for Treaty Verification Environmenta Remediation, Industria Ecoogy, and Advanced Materias for Green Manufacturing. LLNL is currenty designated as the ead-ab in the China Lab-to-Lab program and is in the driver seat to design the framework and funding distribution for interactions with the PRC. A series of exchanges between LLNL, DOE, and the PRC have aready occurred: Four major workshops, hed every quarter and ocated aternatey between US and PRC, focused on Nonproiferation Technoogies, Arms Contro and Treaty Verification, Atmospheric and Underground Dispersion Modeing, and Materias Protection, Contro, and Accounting. Two additiona workshops focused on Materias Database for Industria Ecoogy and Methods to Design for the Future, and on Nucear Power and Reactor Safety. Hosted senior officias from the State Science & Technoogy Commission, China State Panning Commission, China Nationa Environmenta Protection Agency, China Nationa Nucear Corporation, and the China Academy of Engineering Physics to discuss priorities and opportunities for appying LLNL s Integrated Systems Anaysis for Watershed Management Severa site visitations to areas within the PRC where the watershed resources are corrupted and contaminated It shoud be apparenthat LLNL has aready aid the groundwork and estabished a protoco in which the aboratory programs are interacting with the PRC. This framework wi aow LLNL researchers to estabish the necessary connections and advocacy within the PRC government for LLNL to team with the PRC in appying the Integrated Systems Anaysis for Water Resources Management. Page 12

15 Maior nroerams and efforts anticioated in the next 3-5 years from the PRC and the internationa scene Besides the China Lab-to-Lab program within the DOE, there are various other programs between other parts of the DOE with the PRC. Once such program, which is directy reevant to our desire to appy the Integrated Systems Anaysis to Water Resources management, is the In-County Study for Environmenta Management Program estabished by the Presidentia Task Force on Goba Environmenta Management. This program, with invovement and support from DGIYFB, EPA, DGC, DOS, and severa Academic Institutions, has performed severa In-Country studies on the appication of modem technoogies for reducing the goba Greenhouse Effect This program is aso aigned with severa financia institutions, the Word Bank and the Asia Deveopment Fund, for funding joint projects between US and PRC for impementing technoogies for reducing the Greenhouse Effect. Within the PRC, the centra government has estabished a revitaization program caed China s Agenda 21. This program cas out the specific industria areas for modernization, identifies the environmenta issues associated with the modernization, and proposes a cost share pan for impementing the required technoogies to ceanup the environmenta hazards afterwards. LLNL s Integrated Systems Anaysis for Water Resources Management is a perfect too for the PRC to evauate and rethink some of the approaches associated with Agenda 21. In doing so, a more equitabe partnership for investors may be found for modernizing the PRC industria infrastructure because there woud be ess environmenta hazards to be ceaned up. Southern Pacific Rim - Hong Kane. South Korea. and SineaDore The paradigm for operating and deveoping business for LLNL with the governments in South Korea, Hong Kong, and Singapore are very much synergistic to that with the PRC. The endgame and the impact that LLNL wi have in the goba arena, however, are different with each of these countries. With the basic framework of doing business in mind, the foowing summarizes the objectives and important points in interacting with these governments and how to insert LLNL s Integrated Systems Anaysis for Water Resources Management into these countries LLNL has aready estabished, through NASA, funded work with the country of South Korea for goba and regiona atmospheric modeing and surface hydroogy modeing. The purpose is to provide a better understanding of how the cimate wi affect their watershed resources. The payback for these interactions with South Korea, besides contractua work, is in the poitica arena because the demonstration of the Integrated Systems Anaysis techniques in heping South Korea fine tune their agricuturrd economy wi have an impact on negotiation between US, South Korea, and Japan, with North Korea, a hard-ine communist neighbor whose agricutura economy is coapsing because of mismanagement of their own imited watershed resources. The interactions with Hong Kong is not focused on heping Hong Kong manage their watershed resources because Hong Kong receives a of their water aocations from the PRC. LLNL s interactions with the Hong Kong Environmenta Protection Department and the Productivity Counci are focused on equipping Hong Kong with the necessary toos to hep the PRC after 1997, when Hong Kong reverts back to the PRC. Currenty, Hong Kong has ampe financia resources to acquire technoogies and skis for heping the PRC after 1997, so that Hong Kong can gain poitica capita with the new government. An exampe of this is the funding of a Microturbuent Study by the Hong Kong Airport Port Authority to characterize the air patterns of the new airport currenty under construction. This airport is jointy funded by the Hong Kong, Japan, and PRC governments (50/40/10 ratio, PRC is getting a rea sweet dea) and wi be equipped with the most modem technoogies. The cost of the study is $20M USD and $15M of the tota is contracted with the US Nationa Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) in Bouder, Coorado Singapore is aso a sma peninsua without a arge watershed for its govemment to manage. However, it is the center of commerce for Thaiand, Maaysia, and extends to India and the Phiippines. Interactions page 13 LDRD Trackiing # 97-FS-005

16 with their government is focused on heping Singapore gain poitica capita with their neighbors in heping finance agricutursj and industria deveopments within its neighboring countries. The premise is that when the economy of these deveoping countries, based on agricutura and industria deveopments, is stabe, then the probabiity of regiona conficts wi remain ow. The Midde East - Israe. Jordan. and Paestine When Western media sources attempt to rationaize the vioence from the confict between Israe and her neighbors (the State of Paestine in the Gaza Strip and Jordan to the east), the interpretation has aways focused on the spread of fanatica Isamic fundamentaism in the region. Yet this focus often distorts rather than carifies the roots of vioence, by giving insufficient consideration to underying poitica, economic, and ecoogica conditions In many studies performed over the ast five years, experts have concuded that the basis of the confict, originay based on reigious extremes, has now shifted to the issue of environmenta scarcity and is directy tied to water scarcity and its impact on socioeconomic conditions. Ironicay, the Midde East peace process, if indeed can be achieved, offers an opportunity for the peopes in the region to redirect resources from security concerns to environmenta activities and, in addition, to obtain internationa aid and foreign investment for the construction and improvement of environmenta infrastructures that eventuay coud sustain industria deveopment, revitaize agricutura investments, and stabiize the popuation in the region. The new reaity in the Midde East has guided the Word Bank to submit to the internationa donor community an assessment of the deveopment needs and prospects of two regions, whose stabiity and socioeconomic revitaization are deemed to crucia to the success of the Midde East peace process: the West Bank and the Gaza Strip. LLNL s Integrated Systems Anaysis for Water Resources Management can serve as the too for both the US and Israe governments to strategicay assess the water scarcity situation in the region, from which poicies for restoration, recamation, and remediation may be recommended The aboratory is aware of the sensitivities in deaing with both governments regarding the Midde East Peace Initiative, but the DOE and the nationa aboratories aso recognize the impact and potentia payoff if our technoogy can contribute directy to soving the water scarcity issues. The environment (water shortage, deserdfication, poution) is paying a significant roe in the Midde East peace process because it provides a confidence buiding measure and an end to faciitate regiona understanding and cooperation among previousy beigerent countries. LLNL shoud begin the interactions regarding water scarcity issues in the Midde Fast with 1) the Department of State and 2) The Mediterranean Environmenta Technica Assistance Program (MBTAP). MEB AP was initiated by the European Investment Bank and the Word Bank in 1988, and was designed to hep Mediterranean countries to cope with and reduce the effects of environmenta degradation Besides funding from the two banks, MEZAP has a arge program portfoio funded by the European Union, United Nations Deveopment Program, and severa biatera internationa donors. Our interactions with the DOS and MEfAP wi be focused on: the preservation and suppementing of water sources for the GAZA Strip addressing the issues of seawater encroachment, irrigation using saine water, contamination by fertiizers and pesticides, and infitration of sewage, and the geographic and hydrogeoogic effect of the West Bank in regard to the conveyance and penetration of rainfa into underground freshwater aquifer, and the impact of untreated sewage on the water resource. page 14 LDRD TrackiS # 97-FS-005

17 hoendix I. Loca and Nationa Coaborators and Soonsors Current and Previous Coaborators Universitv of Caifornia -Through the Campus-Laboratory-Coaboration (CLC) Program we began working with Scripps, UCLA, UCI, UCSB and UCD on water resource studies on the goba, regiona and watershed scaes on time scaes of hours to decades In addition, UCSB is invoved with a sma water quaity study during the first year. This work is cosey couped with our present Exporatory Research LDRD project we have had for the past 18 months. Nationa Weather Service (NWS) - For the past three years LLNL has been coaborating with the NWS with regard to precipitation forecasts over Caifornia They have used our products, in a research/test mode, to hep with their food forecasting particuary during the winter of LLNL is now working with NWS to evauate the atmospheric and surface hydroogy mode. US Navv Research Laboratorv (NRL) - Two years ago, LLNL deveoped a coaboration with NRL that resuted in the Laboratory signing a Memorandum of Agreement that aowed the ab to bring their regiona atmospheric modes in-house, use them in our research and share research resuts. These modes are now being appied to our water resource studies and they wi eventuay repace the UCDPLLNL mode Korean Meteorooeicrd Research Institute (MRIZ - The aboratory recenty signed a Memorandum of Coaboration with MRI that aows us to share modes and scientists in the scientific areas of precipitation and hydroogy. We are now hosting a scientists from MRI and we have pans to participate with in a NASA/NWS study of the southeastern Asia monsoon This work wi provide us and additiona inkage into deveoping coaborative studies with China (discussed beow) Orange Countv Water District (OCWD) - Our isotopic and groundwater modeing studies are being performed in coaboration with the OCWD. Historicay, our eariest isotopic work was we received and aowed much of our more recent work to be funded directy by OCWD. Citv of Brentwood - Recent contractua work funded by the City of Brentwood used severa isotopic anayses to forecast the ong term viabiity of the current municipa we fieds and suggest the most rationa approach for future groundwater deveopment. DOE Chmate Prosnun -At present DOE s cimate program is argey focused on goba cimate studies, particuary the deveopment, diagnosis and appication of atmospheric and ocean modes. There are hints that coupe of changes may take pace over the next severa years. First, they have an increasing interest in couped modes that address atmosphere/oceans/biosphere and second, they wi ikey start addressing cimate on regiona scaes since that is where concerns reside. Wi the average snowine in the Sierra Nevada Mountains raise 5OOm because of cimate change or wi the corn-bet receive ess precipitation because of cimate change? If so, what are the impacts to the surface and subsurface hydroogy. Work support by this SI wi pace us in a eading position to address this type of question if DOE or any other agency moves in the direction of regiona cimate change. DOE (other moerams) - DOE does not have a direct interest in water resources at the moment; however, they do have an interest and they fund studies reated to processes that describe the growth and decay of certain coud types These studies are a part of the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program in which we are invoved as Science Team Members as we as participating as part of the scientific infrastructure support. This program can be a source of funding that compiments our Strategic Initiative investments. u - In our recent diaogues with Bob Harriss, Project Scientist for Mission Panet Earth, and severa of his scientist, we have received very favorabe comments regarding our approach to water resource studies, i e., the integrated systems approach. They are in the first phase of panning for a Page 15