Research on China s Total Energy Consumption and Energy Structure

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1 Mediterraea Joural of Social Scieces MCSER Publishig Rome-Italy Doi: /mjss.2013.v49p381 Abstract Research o Chia s Total Eergy Cosumptio ad Eergy Structure Gua Yeqig Associate Professor i College of Ecoomics ad Maagemet, Najig Uiversity of Aeroautics ad Astroautics, Najig, Chia Phoe: ; uaayx@uaa.edu.c Liu Hua Postgraduate i College of Ecoomics ad Maagemet, Najig Uiversity of Aeroautics ad Astroautics, Najig, Chia liuhua802901@uaa.edu.c Eergy ad its structure play importat roles i the developmet of ecoomy. This paper built up GM(1,1) models for eergy productio ad cosumptio i Chia. The predicted ad aalyzed total amout of eergy productio ad cosumptio i Chia as well as the structure of eergy. The study showed that GM(1,1) model ca simulate ad predict the tred of the total amout of eergy cosumptio ad the structure well. I the future, the structure of eergy cosumptio will be optimized. The proportio of coal ad oil will decrease ad the proportio of gas ad reewable eergy sources will icrease i order to fill the gap. Keyword: eergy; cosumptio structure; GM(1,1) 1. Itroductio Eergy is the fudametal material of importace i huma society. Each major progress i huma civilizatio accompaied with improvemet ad replacemet of eergy. History has proved that the reasoability of the structure of eergy cosumptio is a very importat idex whe measurig the developmet of ecoomy i oe coutry or district. For a log time, the mai eergy i Chia is coal ad this results i some problems such as greehouse effect, acid rai ad other eviromet problems. So, o the premise of keepig a rapid ecoomic growth, it is very importat to adjust the structure of eergy cosumptio. Researches o eergy cosumptio at home ad abroad maily focus o checkig the relatioship of eergy cosumptio ad ecoomic developmet. Yu ad Ji used the two step E~G method put forward by Egle ad Grager, provig that there is ot a obvious log-term balaced co-itegratio relatioship with America quarterly data from 1974 to 1990[1]. Ster used co-itegratio equatio of static aalysis ad multivariate dyamic co-itegratio aalysis, fidig that eergy has a otable effect i the chage of GDP. Besides that, he determied that there is a obvious logterm co-itegratio equilibrium relatioship of GDP, capital, mapower ad eergy[2,3]. Wu studied the chage of the eergy cosumptio i the progress of urbaizatio i Chia[4].Lu built up a complex system ad studied eergy cosumptio i Chia usig a combied model[5]. Qi ad Luo aalyzed the ecoomic developmet ad eergy cosumptio i some area, ecouraged ad guided that each area should cooperate with each other accordig to their mai eergy ad eergy efficiecy ad take a eergy savig sustaiable balaced growth way[6].zhao studied the relatioship of eergy cosumptio ad carbo emissio i Shaghai[7].Wag used co-itegratio theory ad causality test to study the co-itegratio ad casual relatioship of ecoomic developmet ad electricity cosumptio[8].gua used structural dyamic model to study the rule of the structure of eergy cosumptio from 1990 to 2003[9].These above researches provided may discussios for us to study how to improve the structure of eergy cosumptio. But there is few research that focuses o predictig the eergy cosumptio ad total amout from the agle of umerical modelig. This paper used grey model to predict total amout of eergy cosumptio ad structure i Chia i order to provide some refereces to the govermet. 381

2 Mediterraea Joural of Social Scieces MCSER Publishig Rome-Italy 2. Curret situatio of productio ad cosumptio of eergy i Chia As early as i 2004, Chia had become the secod largest eergy cosumer i the world, accoutig for about 11% of total world eergy cosumptio, secod oly to America. I 2008, the total eergy productio i Chia has reached 2.6 billio tos of stadard coal ad Chia had become the world's largest eergy producer. Accordig to the latest statistics, Chia has already surpassed America as the world's largest emitter, about 21% of the world's emissios. 2.1 Large eergy cosumptio, ca't self-sufficiet From 2004 to 2011, the amout of eergy productio ad cosumptio i Chia showed a tred of slow growth. I 2011, the amout of eergy productio reached te thousad tos of stadard coal; the amout of eergy cosumptio reached te thousad tos of stadard coal. Ad there is a gap i the eergy productio ad eergy cosumptio, meaig that Chia ca't autarky. Table 1 provided the total amout of eergy productio ad eergy cosumptio i Chia from 2004 to Table 1. Total amout of eergy productio ad eergy cosumptio i Chia from 2004 to 2011 (uit: te thousad tos of stadard coal) Year Eergy cosumptio Eergy productio Aalyze from ecoomic developmet i Chia from 2004 to 2011 we ca fid that the growth of eergy cosumptio ad ecoomic developmet i Chia maitais highly cosistet o the whole. Correlatio aalysis shows that the correlatio coefficiet of total eergy cosumptio ad ecoomic growth i Chia is 96.88% from 2004 to 2011 (See i Picture 1). We ca fid that ecoomic developmet pushes the demad of eergy ad eergy with a average of 7.26% growth prop up a average of 16.86% ecoomic growth i Chia. Picture 1. Relatioship of eergy cosumptio ad ecoomic developmet i Chia ( ) 2.2 Low levels of eergy cosumptio structure Table 2 provided the structure of eergy cosumptio i Chia. From Table 2 we ca see that coal is the mai eergy i Chia, about 70% these years. Oil accouts for about 20%. Coal ad oil accout for about 90% of total eergy 382

3 Mediterraea Joural of Social Scieces MCSER Publishig Rome-Italy cosumptio ad the proportio is decreasig. I 2004, they accouted for 90.8% ad i %; gas ad other eergies (maily reewable eergies) accouted for a small proportio ad the proportio is icreasig these years. Table 2. Structure of eergy cosumptio i Chia Year Coal Oil Gas Other eergies Prospects for developmet of reewable eergy Sice the 1980s, wid power, solar eergy, biomass eergy ad such other techologies ad idustries have bee developig steadily with the support of govermet. Small hydro, solar water heater, small wid power ad other reewable eergies techologies ad idustries have bee walkig i the forefrot of the world. I additio, Chia has a abudat reserve of reewable eergy resources. More tha two-thirds of the total lad area has rich solar eergy, radiatio more tha joules per square cetimeter, each year the earth's surface absorbs solar eergy equal to about 1.7 trillio tos of stadard coal of eergy. Wid eergy resources i Chia is about 0.7~1.2 billio kilowatt, ad the wid eergy ca be developed maily focus o the lad with lad capacity reach 1.4~2.4 trillio kilowatt hours. Curret available biomass resources are about 290 millio tos, maily is agricultural orgaic waste. Hydropower resources that ca be developed are very rich, about 600 millio kilowatt. The exploitable hydropower that ca be developed are at least 500 millio kilowatt or more ad the power ca provide 2.5 trillio kilowatt hour. Therefore, Chia has the coditios ad techology potetial to develop the large scale of reewable eergy resource ad this ca provide eough eergy for the future developmet of society ad protectio. We ca do a lot to develop ad use reewable eergy. 3. Predictio of eergy cosumptio i Chia 3.1 Progress of solvig GM(1,1) model Step 1: Sequece data acquisitio; acquire the oegative sequece (0) (0) (0) (0) X = ( x, x (2),, x ( )), ad x (0) ( k) 0, k = 1,2,, ; (0) Step 2: Sequece data accumulatio geeratio; accumulate X ad the we get the accumulatio geeratio X : k (0) x ( k) = ( ), 1,2,, X = ( x, x (2),, x ( )) x i k =, ad i= 1 ; Step 3: Mea sequece geeratio; accordig to X ; get its mea sequece Z : Z = ( z (2), z (3),, z ( )), ad 1 z ( k) = ( x ( k) + x ( k 1)) 2, k = 2,3,, Step 4: Parameter solutio; if a ˆ = ( a, b )T is parameter colum, ad (0) x (2) z (2) 1 (0) x (3) z (3) 1 Y =, B= (0) x ( ) z ( ) 1 (0) The the least squares estimate parameter of GM(1,1) model x ( k) + az ( k) = b satisfies T 1 T aˆ = ( B B) B Y. 383

4 Mediterraea Joural of Social Scieces MCSER Publishig Rome-Italy dx d Step 5: Time respose fuctio; accordig to the result of step 1 to 4, solve the witerizatio equatio + ax = b t ad the we ca get the time respose fuctio b b x () t = ( x )e at + a a Step 6: Time respose sequece; accordig to step 5, we ca get the time respose sequece (0) b b xˆ ( k + 1) = ( x )e ak a + a, Step 7: Simulate ad predict; accordig to the result i step 6; we ca get the simulatio fuctio: (0) a (0) b ak xˆ ( k + 1) = (1 e )( x )e a, 3.2 Predictio of eergy productio ad cosumptio i Chia Because total amout of eergy cosumptio i Chia ad its icrease are iflueced by ecoomic developmet, structure of eergy, structure of idustry ad some other factors while some factors are determied with some udetermied, we ca see it as a grey system. We ca build up the GM(1,1) model by some data ad grasp the chage tred ad rule of the system, avoidig the defect of the lack of data as well as the ifluece of persoal experiece, cogitio ad preferece. So, we ca use the method to predict total amout of eergy cosumptio i the future i Chia. Accordig to total amout of eergy cosumptio i Chia from 2004 to 2011 (see i Table 1), we build up the GM(1,1) model, ad the get a = 0.06, b = As a result, we get the simulatio fuctio (0) 0.06k xˆ ( k+ 1) = e, Simulatio result for detail ca be see i Table 3. Ad the average relative error is 0.95%. Table 3. Simulatio result of total amout of eergy cosumptio i Chia (uit: te thousad tos of stadard coal) Year Origial value Simulatio value Relative error % % % % % % % Accordig to total amout of eergy productio i Chia from 2004 to 2011 (see i Table 1), we build up the GM(1,1) model, ad the get a = 0.063, b = As a result, we get the simulatio fuctio (0) 0.063k xˆ ( k+ 1) = e, Simulatio result for detail ca be see i Table 4. Ad the average relative error is 0.51%. Table 4. Simulatio result of total amout of eergy productio i Chia (uit: te thousad tos of stadard coal) Year Origial value Simulatio value Relative error % % % % 384

5 Mediterraea Joural of Social Scieces MCSER Publishig Rome-Italy % % % Accordig to the simulatio result, the average relative errors of eergy cosumptio ad productio are separately 0.95% ad 0.51%, showig that the simulatio results are well. We ca predict based o this, the total amout of eergy cosumptio i Chia will keep icreasig, the amout will reach te thousad tos of stadard coal i I the same time, the total amout of eergy productio will also keep icreasig ad will reach te thousad tos of stadard coal i Predictio of eergy structure i Chia Accordig to the proportio of eergy structure i Table 2, we ca build up GM(1,1) models for coal, oil,gas ad other eergies ad get their time sequece respose fuctio: (0) xˆ ( k+ 1) = e k ; k = 1,2,, (0) k xˆ ( k+ 1) = e ; (0) ˆ ( + 1) = e k ; = 1, 2,, x k k (0) k xˆ ( k+ 1) = e ; Accordig to the fuctios, we ca predict the proportios of the eergies from 2012 to 2015, Table 5 provides this for detail. Table 5. Proportios of eergies from 2012 to 2015 Year coal oil gas other eergies % 17.39% 5.50% 10.27% % 17.22% 6.10% 10.68% % 17.05% 6.80% 11.12% % 16.88% 7.50% 11.57% From the result, we ca see that the proportios of coal ad oil are decreasig while gas ad other eergies are icreasig, showig Chia is developig clear eergy vigorously. 5. Coclusios ad discussios 1) This paper builds up GM(1,1) models for eergy productio ad cosumptio i Chia ad the use the models to simulate ad predict. The study shows GM(1,1) models ca simulate ad predict the total amout of eergy productio ad cosumptio i Chia well. 2) This paper builds up GM(1,1) model for the proportio of each eergy, ad the predict the chage tred of the proportio of eergy cosumptio. I the future, the proportios of coal ad oil will keep decreasig while gas ad other eergy will icrease. 3) I order to realize the predictio result ad improve the structure of eergy cosumptio, Chia should implemet eergy coservatio ad emissios reductio ad sustaiable developmet actively, ad develop gas ad reewable eergies while decreasig the proportio of coal ad oil. Refereces Yu Ede S, Jag C. Ji, Co itegratio Tests of Eergy Cosumptio, Icome ad employmet. Resources ad Eergy, 1992, 14(3): Ster D.I., Eergy Use ad Ecoomic Growth i the USA: a Multivariate Approach, Eergy Ecoomics, 1993, 15: Ster D.I., A Multivariate Co itegratio Aalysis of the Role of Eergy i the US Macro ecoomy, Eergy Ecoomics, 2000, 22(2): Q.S. Wu, J.H. Cheg, H. Wag, Chage of Eergy Cosumptio with the Process of Idustrializatio i Chia [J].Chia Idustrial Ecoomy, 2005,(04):

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