The Role of Oil Sands Cogeneration in the 2030 Alberta Generation Mixture. Ariane Ouellette, Dr. Andrew Rowe and Dr. Peter Wild April

Transcription

1 The Role of Oil Sands Cogeneration in the 2030 Alberta Generation Mixture Ariane Ouellette, Dr. Andrew Rowe and Dr. Peter Wild April

2 Motivation Province of Alberta targets a 2050 GHG emissions level that is 14% below 2005 levels [1]. In 2010, the Oil Sands sector were responsible for 21% of provincial GHG emissions [1]. Since significant growth in this sector is anticipated for the next few decades, a look at the future of its energy supply may be useful. Current energy supply a mixture of cogeneration and grid electricity. [1] Government of Alberta. Climate Change." [April ]. Photo: David Dodge, The Pembina Institute.

3 Objective Investigate the environmental implications of different cogeneration and grid electricity mixtures as the oil sands energy supply. Investment in future cogeneration capacity depends primarily on market conditions [2]. [2] and Figure: OSDG, "2012 Oil Sands Co-Generation Report," 2012

4 Cogeneration vs. stand-alone generation Cogeneration properties:

5 The Alberta Oil Sands Largest known bitumen deposit in the world [3]. Current production 1.74 million barrels of bitumen/day [4]. Current prominent extraction methods are mining and in-situ. Produces electricity through cogeneration which is sold to the Alberta grid. In 2008, the oil sand developments account for 13% of AB total energy demand [5] The expected electricity demand growth rate for this sector is 6.8% per year [6] [3] J. and Bruce Peachey Moorhouse, "Cogeneration and the Alberta oil sands - cogeneration benefits are maximized with extraction and upgrading integration," Cogeneration & On-site Power Production, Jan [4] Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers, "Canadian Crude Oil Forecast and Market Outlook," Figure: Canadian Centre for Energy Information [5] ERCB, "Alberta's Energy Reserves 2011 and Supply/Demand Outlook ," Calgary, [6] AESO, "2011 Long Term Transmission Plan," 2011.

6 Energy Requirements Steam Assisted Gravity Drainage (SAGD) Electricity: 10 kwh/bbl Steam: 1.21 GJ/bbl Mining Electricity: 12 kwh/bbl Steam: 0.24 GJ/bbl Upgrading Electricity: 8 kwh/bbl Steam: 0.03 GJ/bbl [7] CERI, "Canadian Oil Sands Supply Costs and Development Projects ( )," Figures: About Energy: Oil Sands Canadian Center for Energy Information. [February 28, 2013]

7 Points of interest Considering the major growth anticipated for Alberta s oil sands, how will the corresponding energy requirement be met? What will be the impact on the provincial electricity system s CO 2 emissions if: The oil sands rely on the grid to provide their electricity needs? The oil sands use cogeneration to be self-sufficient? The oil sands use cogeneration to produce significant excess electricity to sell to the provincial grid? Will the province s current Specified Gas Emitters Regulation influence this outcome?

8 General model structure Scenario # 2030 Installed Cogeneration Capacity in the Oil Sands [MW] Each scenario corresponds to a different value of installed cogeneration capacity in the oil sands. A deterministic analysis is performed using EnergyPLAN to balance supply and demand for every scenario.

9 CO2 Emissions [Mt/yr] CO 2 emissions Electricity Heat Scenario Between Scenario 1 and Scenario 5, the reduction in yearly CO 2 emissions is 13%. When displacing only coal and natural gas base-load generation, this number is increased to 26%. This is due to displacement of coal by natural gas and fuel savings inherent to the cogeneration process.

10 Emissions Reduction Effectiveness [MtCO2/MW] Percent Change 10% 5% 0% % -10% -15% -20% Coal NG -25% Total -30% Change in fuel usage is non-linear. This suggests there may be an installed cogeneration capacity with the most effective reduction in CO 2 emissions. -35% Cogeneration Capacity [MW] Scenario four results in the greatest reduction in emissions per installed MW of cogeneration Scenarios

11 Total Annualized Cost [M$/yr] Levelized Cost of Each Scenario Installed Cogen Capacity [MW] Fuel savings greatly reduce the levelized annual cost of each scenario

12 Recommendations Results show that there may be significant environmental and economic benefits to high levels of cogeneration in the oil sands However, without the steam used by oil sands extraction methods, the cogeneration units most likely cannot run. This means that electricity coming from oil sands cogeneration facilities cannot be adjusted to suit grid requirements. Regardless of their energy supply method, the oil sands developers choice will have a significant impact on the AIES due to the sheer size of the developments.