The Alberta tar-sands & climate. Neil Swart & Andrew Weaver

Transcription

1 The Alberta tar-sands & climate Neil Swart & Andrew Weaver

2 Where, what and why? From: ERCB, 2011 The area the tar-sands occupy is ~ km 2, roughly the size of England or four Vancouver Islands

3 Extraction: Surface mining: 20% of reserve

4 Extraction: In-situ: 80% of reserve

5 Separation & upgrading

6 Pipelines

7 Opposition:

8 What is the climate impact?

9 How much bitumen is there in Alberta? Pool Barrels (x10 9 ) Oil-in-place 1800 Ultimate-potential 315 Proven Reserve 170 Under active development 26 Energy Resources Conservation Board (ERCB) ST Alberta s energy reserves 2010 and Supply/Demand outlook

10 How much carbon is that? 1. Bitumen has a density of g.m Bitumen is 83% carbon by weight So the amount of carbon per barrel is:

11 What about emissions during extraction-upgrading-refining? Fuel Emissions (g CO2eq / km) Emissions ( 10 5 g / bbl ) Relative Tar-sands (Basic) Tar-sands (Surface mining)* Tar-sands (In-situ)* Tar-sands (combined) Conventional-oil* From Charpentier et al. (2009) who summarized 13 well-to-wheel studies of tarsands emissions*:

12 How much carbon is that? Energy Resources Conservation Board (ERCB) ST Alberta s energy reserves 2010 and Supply/Demand outlook

13 How to calculate warming? Carbon-climate response CCR = T / ET = 1.5 / Tt Carbon (1 Tt = g) (5th-95th percentile) Mathews et al. (2009) Nature, 459.

14 Potential warming from the Alberta tar-sands (from CCR) Oil-in-place 0.36 Ultimate potential 0.06 Proven reserve 0.03 Active development Warming potential ( C)

15 But, tarsands are currently used by North Americans: representing only 5% of the global population.

16 Tar-sands carbon footprints 85 tc For a 66% chance of 64 tc limiting warming to 2, carbon emissions should be 64 tc N. America U.S. & Canada < tonnes. 16 tc 16 tc China China China Zickfeld et al. (2009) PNAS, 106.

17 Tar-sands carbon footprints 85 tc For a 66% chance of 64 tc limiting warming to 2, carbon emissions should be 64 tc N. America U.S. & Canada < tonnes. Divide equally 16 tc by the current 16 tc China China China global population. Zickfeld et al. (2009) PNAS, 106.

18 Tar-sands carbon footprints 85 tc is the allowable 64 tc per capita cumulative carbon 64 tc N. America U.S. & Canada footprint 16 tc 16 tc China China China Zickfeld et al. (2009) PNAS, 106.

19 Tar-sands carbon footprints 85 tc 64 tc 64 tc N. America U.S. & Canada from use of economically viable tar-sands reserve 16 tc 16 tc China China China

20 Tar-sands carbon footprints 85 tc 64 tc 64 tc N. America U.S. & Canada 16 tc 16 tc China China China

21 What about other resources? Cummulative carbon emissions (x10 18 g) Cummulative emissions assuming CDIAC 2008-level emissions / year and total resource availability from Rogner et al. (2012) 2 C warming limit Coal Unconventional gas Gas Unconventional oil Year Oil

22 Some conclusions Tarsands contain a large amount of carbon though only around 20% expected to be utilized. Warming potential may be relatively humble in an absolute sense, but large per capita for North Americans. Easily over 2 in fossil-fuels at large. Avoiding further infrastructure commitments to fossil-fuels and transitioning to renewables is essential to avoid 2 (4 ).

23 Rogner, H. H. et al. in Global Energy Assessment Ch. 7 (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis & Cambridge Univ. Press, in the press).

24 Footprints 360 tonnes: Average Canadian Cummulative Lifetime carbon Footprint (C.L.F.) 85 tonnes: Max C.L.F for 2 C 103 tonnes: Average Chinese C.L.F. C.L.F. s based on CDIAC 2008 data

25 Mathews et al. (2009) Nature, 459.

26 Swart and Weaver (2012) Potential warming from global fossil fuel resources

27 Warming relative to SRESA2 scenario (from UVic Model) SRESA2

28 Warming relative to SRESA2 scenario (from UVic Model) SRESA2 Tar-sands proven

29 Warming relative to SRESA2 scenario (from UVic Model) SRESA2 Tar-sands proven Tar-sands O.I.P

30 Tar-sands expansion

31 Tar-sands expansion

32 Tar-sands expansion