Migration, urban population growth and regional disparity in China

Transcription

1 CERDI Eudes e Documens E Documen de raval de la sére Eudes e Documens E Mgraon urban populaon growh and regonal dspary n Chna Mary-Françose Renard a Zela Xu a Nong Zhu b a CERDI Unversy of uvergne France b INRS - UCS Unversy of Quebec Canada 6 h Inernaonal Conference on Chnese economy Clermon-Ferrand Ocober p.

2 . Inroducon Chnese populaon especally rural populaon had been subjec o mgraon conrols for a long me. Shorly afer he foundaon of he People s Republc of Chna a household regsraon sysem had been naed. Snce he end of he 950s hs Hukou sysem became he bass of resrcons on populaon mobly. Wh he Hukou sysem he cenral governmen manages o exer conrols on he mgraon owards ces and on he sze growh of he ces. The Hukou saus arbued o each household ndcaes he rural or urban naure of s resden place and he agrculural or non-agrculural naure of he occupaon of s members. I s forbdden o mgrae from rural o urban areas excep for sudens gong o hgh educaon nsuons or workers recrued by sae enerprses (Chan and Zhang 999). Whou offcal urban saus mgran comng from rural areas have no access o urban socal welfare sysem such as free publc educaon healh care low ren housng ec. They could hardly survve n ces especally because of he food raon sysem. Consequenly ll he begnnng of he 980s besdes naural growh urban populaon growh derves manly from offcal mgraon governed by local auhores hrough a quoa sysem nsead of sponaneous mgraon drven by ndvdual decsons. he end of he 970s a comprehensve and profound economc reform had been launched whch led o sgnfcan changes n mgraon and urbanzaon polces. The gradual nroducon of marke mechansm and he abolshmen he food raon sysem a he begnnng of 990s made he Hukou sysem less jusfed. The cenral governmen began o allow some emporary mgraons around 984 whch resuled n a large floang populaon n urban areas. Ths refers o mgrans whou geng permanen urban Hukou saus. Durng hs perod of ranson from a planned economy o a marke economy he growh of cy populaon derves more and more from he sponaneous mgraon deermned by facors as producvy and qualy of lfe n ces. However he parcular suaon of emporary mgrans n ces especally her lmed access o urban publc servces makes he mgraon paern n Chna dsnc from ha descrbed n radonal heores. Some papers lke Wong e al (2003) Zhang and Zhao (2003) sugges ha n ranson economes he deermnans of mgraon and he growh of urban populaon are dfferen from oher counres. The man objecve of hs paper s o sudy he deermnans of cy populaon growh n Chna durng he 990s as well as he deermnans of mgraons owards ces whch consues he man source of urban populaon growh n hs perod. second objecve s o denfy regonal dfferences n he urban growh and mgraons ha s wheher urban growh and mgraon paerns are dfferen beween coasal and nland provnces. ddonally we are neresed n he dfferences beween emporary and permanen mgraons owards urban areas. The paper s organzes n fve secons. Secon 2 brefly descrbes regonal dspares and ner-provncal mgraon paerns n Chna. Secon 3 summarzes he man heores explanng urbansaon and rural-urban mgraon. Secon 4 presens daa and mehodology used for emprcal analyss. Secon 5 explans he resuls and concludes. 2

3 2. Regonal dspares and ner-provncal mgraons The economc openness of Chna began n he provnces of he Souh-Eas manly n Guangdong and Fujan. The creaon of Specal Economc Zones and of Open Economc Zones was he maser pece of he open-door polcy. The frs four Specal Economc Zones have been esablshed n 980 along he souheas coas. From oher coasal ces have been covered by he Open Economc Zones. These Specal Economc Zones and open ces have snce hen araced subsanal foregn drec nvesmens (FDI); whch helped o creae numerous jon-venures and foregn capal enerprses. Preferenal polces such as fscal advanages were arbued o hese enerprses. Durng hs perod he Chnese governmen gradually gave up preceden polces based on a balanced regonal developmen sraegy of Mao s era. Preferenal polces have been accorded o coasal provnces (Fan 999; Yang 997) whch had been consdered as key locales of Chna s economc developmen. Subsequenly hese provnces ganed momenum n economc growh parcularly hanks o he massve nflow of foregn capal. Marke mechansms are nroduced and esablshed o a greaer degree han n oher provnces. In fac he GDP growh raes n hese coasal provnces have been much hgher han he average naonal level for years and he degree of openness of coasal ces keeps growng. The new developmen sraegy favourng coasal provnces s leadng o ncreasng regonal dspares. (Bhalla 990; Chen and Flesher 996; yons 99). The mos salen regonal dspares appeared beween coasal and nland provnces. In Table and Fgure 2 we calculae a Thel ndex o sudy he unequal dsrbuon of he nra and ner regonal developmen. Two facs can be observed n Table : he fas economc growh n he counry as a whole durng he 990s and he GDP per capa s hgher n coasal provnces han n oher regons. The Thel ndex shows ha despe he hgh economc growh a he naonal level and he ncreasng openness of wesern provnces he regonal dspares nduced by open door polcy kep growng beween he hree groups of provnces (coasal cenral and wesern). Table - Decomposon of he Thel Index : Real GDP per capa Real GDP per capa (yuan) Thel Index Inra-provncal Toal Coasal Provnces Cenral Provnces Wesern Provnces Toal Inerprovncal Coasal Provnces Cenral Provnces Wesern Provnces Noe: The GDP per capa has been deflaed by he consumpon prce ndex Moreover he dspares whn he coasal regon grew up. Fgure shows ha more han wo hrds of he GDP dspares n Chna come from ner-regonal and nra-coasal dspares. The laer may be explaned by he fac ha some ces n coasal regon are close o Hong-Kong and Macao hereby recevng more FDI from here whereas oher ces n hs regon have no such geographcal advanage and receve far less FDI. 3

4 Durng hs perod s shown ha he mgraons o easern provnces nensfed (Map ) whch s he consequence of he open-door polcy and he relaxaon of conrol on mgraon. Fgure - Decomposon of hethel Index : Real GDP per capa Indce de Thel nnée Inerrégonal Provnces côères Provnces cenrales Provnces de l Oues Source : Chna Sascal Yearbook several ssues. Map llusraes he weny larges flows of mgraons for each of he perod of and We can see ha hese man mgraon flows come from nland provnces owards easern ones. Durng he frs and second perods mgrans ended o concenrae n hree man regons: he Pearl Rver Dela (Guangdong) he Yangse Dela around Shangha he bgges cy n Chna and he area around he Boha Golf ncludng Bejng. The open-door polcy has been frs expermened n Guangdong. Ths provnce benefed from preferenal polcy and enjoned good condons of openness. Expor-based developmen and massve nflow of foregn capal smulaed he growh of small ces and of labour-nensve secors. Ths s n favour of employmen and herefore very aracve o mgrans from all over he counry. The mos populaed provnce Schuan (4.3 mllon nhabans n 2000) s he man source of emgran. ccordng o non-offcal sources seems ha more ha 5 mllons farmers leave he provnce as emporary mgrans. Henan he second mos populaed provnce s anoher man source of long dsance mgraon. Ths mples ha a large populaon consues an mporan repulson force o he emgraon of labours. 4

5 Map Man ner-provncal mgraon flows Coasal Provnces Inland Provnces The hckness of arrows ndcaes approxmaely he magnude of mgraon flows Source : Populaon Census Offce under he Sae Councl 99 ; Naonal Bureau of Sascs of Chna 997 ; Theores abou urbanzaon facors 5

6 Theores concernng urbanzaon facors can be found n boh spaal economcs and developmen economcs leraures. In spaal economcs all geographc concenraons are consdered as he resul of he neracon beween agglomeraon forces and dsperson forces. The formaon and he growh of ces are a ypcal spaal agglomeraon phenomenon resulng from he neracon of heses opposng forces: economc acors group ogeher and form ces o benef from agglomeraon advanages bu cy sze s lmed because of urban dseconomes such as congeson and polluon phenomena. gglomeraon advanages derve manly from ncreasng reurns of scale. There are nernal ncreasng reurns n he producon a frm level; moreover scale economes exernal o frms are essenal o her groupng n space. s early as Marshall hree sources of exernales are ndcaed as drvng force of he concenraon of ndusral acves: () he avalably of specalzed npus and servces () he formaon of a labour pool () he nformaon exchange and spllover. On he oher sde here are cenrfugal forces. Cenrfugal forces exs frs of all because of ranspor coss. The exsence of ranspor coss of manufacure goods encourages frms o ge nearer o consumers ha are somemes dspersng. Secondly coss of fxed facors such as land ncrease wh he concenraon of producon and populaon whch leads o dsperson. Fnally gans due o agglomeraon could be offse by s negave effec or exernal dseconomes. These dseconomes ake place when cy sze growh leads o congeson polluon and ohers socal problems. The congeson s usually represened by phenomena lke urban raffc jams. n mporan branch n spaal economcs he new geography economc leraure aemps o model formally he agglomeraon phenomenon n a monopolsc compeon framework. These models predc a cenre-perphery spaal srucure: hose locaons havng advanages due o hsorcal evens facoral endowmen or o geographc posons arac more concenraon and become he cenres and oher places less advanageous are reduced o he perpheres. Krugman (993) Fuja e al (999) analyse he emergence of he new economc cenres followng demographc growh. The new cenres appear only a ceran dsance from he orgnal cenre n he lm of hs dsance new cenres could no exs because cenrpeal forces of he orgnal cenre are oo srong and he area s sll n he shade of he orgnal cenre. New cenres are no lkely o be ou of he dsance lm snce ranspor coss ncreasng wh dsance are excessve here. Therefore he dsance beween new cenres and he orgnal cenres s deermned by he equlbrum beween cenrpeal and cenrfugal forces. If heores on spaal concenraon of economc acves offer endogenous explanaons o he formaon and he dsrbuon of urban cenres developmen economss aach more mporance o he role of economc srucural change n he urbanzaon. Neoclasscal heores consder mgraon as a phenomenon of economc developmen whch mprove effcency by he shf of labour from low producvy secors o hgh producvy secors. The frs dual-economy model n neoclasscal heores s developed by ews (954) Rans and Fe (96) whch consders an economy wh a radonal agrculural secor and a modern ndusral secor. In hs model farmland s lmed and here s no capal nvesmen n rural secor as a resul wh he demographc pressure margnal producvy n agrculure s a neglgble level. Gven he surplus of agrculure labour urban secor can oban he quany of workers needed wh a fxed wage level. The urbanzaon beng par of srucural ransformaon of he economy sems drecly from rural/urban mgraon. Models of Todaro (969) and Harrs and Todaro (970) are he mos nfluenal ones n explanng rural/urban mgraon. Ther models are based on he prncple of economc raonaly whch assumes ha a rural worker makes mgraon 6

7 decsons by comparng he cos and he ancpaed ncome n urban areas. The ancpaed ncome equals o he wage mulpled by he probably of fndng a job. The wage level n urban formal secor s hgher han n rural secor owng o nsuonal facors leadng o he urban wage rgdy. Ths wage gap beween rural and urban secor s he source of mgraon. Todaro also explans why he rural-urban mgraon persss even when here s unemploymen n urban secor: hs s due o he exsence of an nformal secor n urban areas ha absorb mgrans. Sudes on deermnans of rural/urban mgraon conss manly of mcro-analyss neresed n economc or socal characerscs of ndvduals whereas analyses on urbanzaon process are concerned abou macro-economc condons nfluencng nernal mgraon he laer s he aggregaon of ndvdual mmgraon decsons. If economc facors play essenal roles n he deermnaon of rural/urban mgraon urbanzaon and urban growh are affeced by he same facors. Wllamson (988) revewed macro-economc explcave facors of rural/urban mgraon and urban growh by classfyng hem no hree caegores: ) exernal exogenous evens such as foregn capal dependence relave prce of exchangeable producs n nernaonal marke; 2) nernal exogenous evens lke he shorage of culvable land he consummaon srucure polcy choces ec; 3) endogenous lms. Wha lms urban growh n models of dual economy s he dsappearng of rural labour surplus or he rse of produc s relave prce. These facors are hghlghed n order o explan urban growh dfferences of developng counres. cy level whn a counry growh dfferences are deermned by dfferen aracons of ces o he mgrans. Mgraon models based on dual economy (Harrs and Todaro 970 among ohers) consder he rural/urban mgraon as a response o he ncome dfference beween rural and urban secors; ndvduals make decsons of mgraon by comparng her ancpaed ncomes. Consequenly a cy s aracon owards mgrans les manly n economc opporunes he ncome level and he employmen poenals ha he cy provdes. Urban nfrasrucures are supposed o play an mporan role n urban growh process. In endogenous growh leraure nfrasrucures are consdered as an explcave varable of he economc growh. Publc nfrasrucure s par of he publc capal sock ha eners drecly no he producon funcon. cy level urban publc nfrasrucures are shared by all frms n he same cy whch consues an mporan source of urbansaon economes. Improvemen of nfrasrucures n ces helps on one hand o realse more agglomeraon economes and on he oher hand o reduce dseconomes relaed o agglomeraon such as congeson and polluon coss hence o rase he ces general producvy. The nfluence of urban nfrasrucures on mgraon decsons s also emphaszed n he leraure. Frsly urban nfrasrucures affec drecly mgraon decsons. The lvng coss ncludng ranspor coss housng coss ncrease as he cy populaon grows herefore mprovemen of nfrasrucures lke publc ranspor servces housng condons reduces lvng coss and encourage mgraon nflow. Secondly nfrasrucures nended o serve producve acves affec mgraon decsons hrough her effec on producvy and on ncome level (Small 999). Meanwhle he consrucon of urban nfrasrucure creaes employmen n ces drecly by ncreasng labour demand and ndrecly by smulang he developmen of oher servces whch aracs mgrans by offerng more job opporunes (Ebers and McMllen 999). 7

8 8 4. Emprcal nalyss 4.. Economerc model Emprcal analyss are based on a model bul by Glaeser and al (995) and used also by Beeson and Dejong (2000) n her sudy on populaon growh n he US. In hs model ces are consdered as separaed economes sharng labour and capal markes. The oal producon of a cy a me Y s gven by K Y = () where represens he producvy level of cy a me K denoe respecvely capal and labour level. In hs Cobb-Douglas producon funcon and are producon parameers a naonal level. The capal reurn r s supposed o be exogenous and common o all ces whch equals o he margnal producon of he capal under perfec compeon assumpon. K r = (2) Urban salary s gven by he margnal producon of labour. K W = (3) Combnng (2) and (3) gves + = r W (4) The qualy of lfe ndex n he cy δ = Q Z (5) where Q represens ameny ndex and δ capures he congeson effec ncreasng wh urban populaon sze. The oal uly of a resden n a cy s deermned by he salary level and he lfe qualy namely δ δ + = = Q r Z W U (6) When he mgraon s free across ces a equlbrum he uly of each ndvdual a a me pon s consan for all ces noed by U = Θ Q Q U U log log log log δ δ (7) Then and Q are supposed o evolve as followng X log ε + = + (8a) Glaeser and Shapro (200) develop anoher verson of he model. The model adoped here bases manly on he former verson wh some suggesed modfcaons.

9 log Q + Q = X θ + ξ (8b) wh qualy. log X represenng a se of characerscs nfluencng levels of producvy and lfe The model esmaed s derved by combnng (7) (8a) e (8b) as follows + θ θ = X + δ δ + χ where χ s an error erm no correlaed wh urban characerscs 2. In hs framework he regresson nerpres how ces characerscs deermne urban populaon growh hrough he ces qualy of lfe and he producvy. I should be noed ha hese are characerscs a he begnnng of he perod; hey affec urban growh durng ha perod whch assumes a lag beween changes n urban characerscs and her effecs on urban growh. The lag could be due o wo facs: frsly he mgraon responds o ces uly changes wh a lag because he nformaon ransmsson s no mmedae (Rappapor 999; Beeson and Dejong 2000) n oher words a rse of ncome level or an mprovemen of lfe qualy n ces a presen encourages a growh of mgran flow n he fuure. Secondly he effec of urban characerscs changes on producvy and lfe qualy n ces s no mmedae neher. The lag exss parcularly beween he me of applcaon of polcs and he momen when hey begn o ake effec. The usng of lagged explcave varables mpled by hs emprcal model perms o mgae o some exen he endogeney problem. In fac mos of explcave facors of urban growh are endogenous due o nverse causaly. For nsance he level of GDP per capa beng an explcave varable s growh ndcaes hgher economc performance and encourages more mgraon bu on he oher sde he growh of he urban populaon enhances he agglomeraon economes and conrbues o he mprovemen of economc performance and he growh of GDP level. In hs way he explcaed varable exers nverse causales on he explcave varables. Based on equaon (9) we esmae deermnans of cy populaon growh meanwhle we regress hese facors on mgran flows n order o know f mgraon and urban populaon growh are deermned by he same facors. (9) 4.2 Daa and varables In Chnese urban sysem here are hree admnsrave levels of ces: ces under drec admnsraon of he cenral governmen (zh xa sh) or provnce-level ces; ces a prefecure level admnsered by provnces; ces a couny level admnsered by prefecures or provnces. We choose provnce-level and prefecure-level ces as observaon uns by excludng counes and couny-level ces aached o hem. logeher here are 223 ces of 2 Θ = log Θ Θ + wh Θ = r. U χ + = Θ log ε + + ξ +. δ δ U 9

10 heses ypes n Our sample covers 58 of hese ces durng wh oher 65 ces excluded because of ncoheren varaons n her populaon. The perod s no long enough for he examnaon of long erm rend we choose for wo reasons : frsly marke forces dd no begn o play sgnfcan roles n Chnese economes unl he begnnng of 990s ; before ha urban developmen had been subjec o governmens plannng and conrol raher han followng economc agens neracons. Therefore may be napproprae o apply economc heores based on marke compeon assumpons o sudy Chnese urban sysem changes before 990. In fac cy daa before 990 suffer from frequen changes and adjusmens whch also makes he sudy of urban growh pror o he 990s dffcul. Secondly snce he 980s Chna has experenced unprecedened rapd economc growh a profound ranson has nvolved all domans of Chna especally he urban secor. Hence whn a me span of en years ha appears no so long for mos developed counres dramac changes may have aken place n a ranson economy lke Chna. Our daa on ces are compled from Ffy years of Chnese ces (NSB 999) and Sascal Yearbook of Chnese ces (NSB 2000). These sources provde cy aggregae daa on populaon economc developmen lfe qualy geographc and oher characerscs. Daa on mgraon are compled from sascs of populaon census (% censor of 995 NSB 997 and censor of 2000 NSB 2002). Mgrans refer o resdens for less han fve years. Dependan varables We make wo groups of regressons on cy populaon growh and mgran numbers respecvely. Cy populaon growh For cy populaon dfferen measures exs n Chna. Generally speakng wo man daa seres are adoped by auhors o represen urban populaon: non-agrculural cy populaon and oal cy populaon. If boh measures are lmed o he same urban areas he former s srcly based on Chnese unque Hukou (resdence regser) sysem and does no nclude mgrans whou offcal ransfer of Hukou saus. The laer s based on resdence prncple and ncludes no only offcal urban Hukou resden bu also par of emporary urban resdens. Thereby growh of non-agrculural populaon sems manly from offcal mgraon ha s mgraon beween ces and publc enerprses; and mos of he rural-urban mgraon can only be refleced n growh of oal cy populaon. These wo ypes of mgraon are assumed o be of dfferen paerns. For comparave purpose we run regressons on hese wo dfferen measures. Mgran numbers ccordngly n he mgraon regressons we dsngush wo componens of mgrans namely mgrans from rural o urban areas (rural-urban) and mgrans from beween urban areas (urban-urban) as dependen varables. Rural-urban mgrans o a cy are defned as resdens of he cy (wh or whou permanen local Hukou saus) movng from rural areas for less han fve years. Urban-urban mgrans refer o resdens of he cy movng from oher urban areas (own or cy) for less han fve years (NSB 2002). Independen varables Four groups of ndependen varables suggesed by heorecal and emprcal leraures are nroduced n he regressons. 0

11 Convergence facors In populaon growh regressons he nal level of he populaon s he varable o capure he convergence or dvergence rend of urban growh. The growh leraure suggess ha economc growh of dfferen regons or counres ends o converge n oher words here s a negave correlaon beween growh rae and he nal level of economc developmen. The convergence phenomenon n he growh s he subjec of los of emprcal works. Urban populaon growh beng an aspec of economc growh of ces we can make he analogy and expec he same convergence phenomenon n urban growh. We also nroduce mgran number of he perod preceden as an explcave varable n populaon growh as well as mgraon regressons o see f here s any correlaon beween mgran numbers over me. In oher words we d lke o know f ces havng absorbng more mgrans n he pas keep aracng mgran nflows. Ths allows o compare mgraon paerns before and afer 990. Geographc facors We nroduce a dsance varable o represen he economc geographc facor of he cy. Ths varable measures he dsance beween he cy and he capal of s provnce. I s he normalzed dsance consruced as followng a Dj D j = M D j where D j ndcaes he dsance (by road) beween cy of provnce j and he capal cy D M he maxmum value of D j (n provnce ). D j a akes he value of 0 f j s he capal cy and equals o f j s he furhes cy from he capal of he provnce; for oher ces akes values beween 0 and. The capal cy of a provnce s n general he cenre of he provnce boh n polcal and economc erms. ccordng o cenre-perphery model n new economc geography heores new agglomeraon cenres mosly lkely o appear a a ceran dsance from he orgnal cenre where cenrpeal and cenrfugal forces exerng by he orgnal cenre are n equlbrum. Followng hs reasonng we suppose ha exsng urban agglomeraons are also subjec o hese opposng forces of her provncal cenres and her growh s affeced by he dsance o hese provncal cenres. Economc facors GDP per capa s a general ndcaor of economc developmen whch reflecs a he same me he ncome level and he producvy level n a cy. Gven ha ncome level facor s essenal n he deermnaon process of he mgraon we expec a posve effec of hs varable on urban growh. We nroduce hen a varable of open degree represened by he rao of foregn drec nvesmen o GDP of he cy. Foregn drec nvesmen s supposed o conrbue o aracng mgrans by creang employmen and by rasng he producvy level. Then he human capal level of he cy s approxmaed by he number of unversy sudens n he cy. Urban Infrasrucure facors Fnally he rao of fscal expendure on GDP s nroduced o reflec urban nfrasrucure level. More fscal expendure mples beer cy nfrasrucure condons and s expeced o mprove boh producvy and lfe qualy levels and o encourage mgraon nflow.

12 5 Resuls and concluson The resuls of he regressons concernng he growh of oal cy populaon and nonagrculural populaon for nland and easern provnces are presened n Table 3. s proposed by Gleaser e al. (995) he convergence hypohess ha means a negave relaonshp beween he populaon growh and s sze holds for he ces n coasal and nland provnces and for oal and non-agrculural populaon and hese resuls are hghly sgnfcan. Ths convergence prncple may derve from wo facs: frs he echnologcal evoluon s slower n he advanced ces and second he qualy of lfe decreases wh he sze of he populaon because of ncreasng coss of he mgraons; here s a lag beween he arrval of he mgrans and he consrucon of new nfrasrucures. None of he regressons shows sgnfcan effec of he number of mgrans arrved durng on cy populaon growh. So he ces recevng more mgrans n ha perod ddn grow more quckly; here s no perssence of cy populaon growh before and afer 990. s for cy characerscs ha deermne he producvy and he level of economc developmen hey have posve effecs on he growh of cy populaon. GDP per capa has a posve effec on he growh of oal cy populaon (boh for ces of nland and coasal provnces) whereas s coeffcens are no sgnfcan n he regressons of non-agrculural populaon growh. Hgher GDP per capa mplcaes hgher wage levels n ces bu he growh of non-agrculural populaon derves manly from permanen mgraons whch s offcal and conrolled by he auhores o a large exen. These are no exacly nduced by ndvdual decsons. Mos of he mgrans have a sable job ofen n Sae enerprses and benef from socal proecon programs; so he wage s no an essenal elemen n her mgraon deermnaon. Zhang (2000) Chen and Coulson (2000) also fnd ha a hgh GDP level s n favour of he populaon growh of Chnese ces whle Zhang and Song (2003) and and Zahnser (2002) consder ha he ncome gap movaes mgraons. Neverheless our resuls of our regressons ndcae ha GDP has a sgnfcan effec on growh of nonagrculural populaon of he ces n coasal provnces. Tha may be explaned by he developmen of marke mechansms n hese provnces hanks o he openness and he developmen of non-sae enerprses. The growh of non-agrculural populaon n hese regons s hus also affeced by marke mechansm manly he wage gap. s expeced Foregn Drec Invesmen (FDI) varable has a posve effec on he growh of he cy populaon because helps o augmen wages and creae jobs. Ths resul consss wh hose of several auhors lke Zhang (2000) S and Yang (997) Ma and n (993). The coeffcens are sgnfcan for coasal and nland provnces o explan he growh of oal cy populaon; bu for he growh of non-agrculural populaon s effec s only sgnfcan for nland ces. s explaned ealer permanen mgrans ofen work n sae enerprses and are no araced by ces wh a large nflow of FDI. n coasal provnces ces are no so dfferen n erms of FDI so dfference n populaon growh s raher explaned by oher facors han FDI. In nland provnces dsrbuon of FDI s que unequal and explans sgnfcanly populaon growh dfferences. Fscal expendures whch are generally used n fnancng publc servces and nfrasrucures; especally publc educaon servces and healh care have a posve effec on he growh of populaon n coasal provnces as well as n nland ones. Ths fndng s smlar o ha of Chen and Coulson (2002). The number of college sudens an ndcaor of human capal of he cy s supposed o have a posve effec on he growh of populaon. Neverheless n our regressons hs varable s no sgnfcan excep for he oal cy populaon esmaon. May be hs s an 2

13 ndcor ha only reflecs he college educaon nfrasrucure level bu no he qualy of general educaonal envronmen. s a resul has no sgnfcan effec on growh. Chen and Coulson (2002) also found ha some ndcaors concernng lfe qualy ddn have any effec on growh. Table 3 Deermnans of cy populaon growh Dependan varable: ogarhm of he growh of urban populaon Toal Toal cy populaon Coasal Inland provnces provnces og (oal populaon 990) *** *** *** Non-agrculural populaon Coasal Inland Toal provnces provnces (-3.98) (-2.69) (-3.66) og (non agrculural populaon) -0.4*** -0.38*** -0.27*** (-8.6) (-5.3) (-5.95) og (number of mgran ) (0.20) (-0.9) (-0.83) (-0.3) (-.6) (-0.90) og (GDP per capa) 0.066*** 0.*** 0.08*** ** 0.03 (3.7) (3.0) (3.05) (0.94) (2.02) (.03) og (FDI per capa) 0.009** 0.07** 0.00* 0.024*** *** (2.03) (2.02) (.77) (4.38) (.48) (3.67) Fscal expendure/gdp) 0.330** 0.926** 0.783** ** 0.807** (2.0) (2.25) (2.43) (0.34) (2.) (2.03) College sudens number per 00 persons 0.037** (2.53) (0.77) (.42) (0.45) (-0.44) (0.42) jused Dsance (-0.98) (-0.9) (-.34) (-.4) (-0.97) (-0.53) jused Dsance squared (0.96) (0.5) (.08) (0.54) (0.8) (-0.06) Consan * *** * (-0.9) (-.84) (-.05) (3.27) (0.4) (.76) 2 R N Noes: Inland provnces nclude cenral and wesern provnces. suden values are ndcaed n parenhess. *** : sgnfcan a % level; ** :sgnfcan a 5% level; * : sgnfcan a 0% level. The adjused dsance beween a cy and he provncal capal has a negave effec on he growh of he ces populaon. Ths resul could reveal a gravy force of he capal. Bu hese effecs are no sgnfcan. s expeced n our regressons more varables are sgnfcan n explanng he growh of oal cy populaon han n explanng he growh of non-agrculural populaon. s explaned earler he man source of he growh of non-agrculural populaon s no he rural-urban mgraon bu he permanen mgraon conrolled by he governmen whch seems o be less nfluenced by marke mechansms han emporary mgraon. Then n a socals economy n ranson he radonal heores are no suffcen o explan all he mgraon and populaon growh n ces. So s mporan o dsngush permanen and emporary mgraon. In general he deermnans of populaon growh of ces n coasal provnces and nland ones are almos he same. Ths mples ha regonal dfferences beween coasal and 3

14 nland provnces n urban growh come manly from dspares n populaon sze GDP level FDI manly he facors relaed o governmen polces. Parcularly hese are relaed o he dscrmnaory polces n economc openness. On he conrary our resuls show sgnfcan dfferences beween oal cy populaon and non-agrculural populaon growhs. For oal populaon he sgnfcan facors are he same for he wo ypes of provnces. For non-agrculural populaon he GDP effec s sgnfcan for coasal provnces bu no for nland ones; he FDI effec s sgnfcan for nland provnces and no for he coasal ones. We now urn o he esmaon of mgran number he man source of he populaon growh of ces. The resuls of he regressons of (all mgrans rural/urban mgrans and urban/urban mgrans) are presened n Table 4. The coeffcen of he number of mgrans n he pas ( ) oward ces s only sgnfcanly posve for he urban/urban mgraon n coasal provnces. There are wo possble explanaons. Frs rural-urban mgraon s deermned by he suaon of labour marke whch had a lo of changes durng he 990s; as a resul some ces havng been aracve durng he perod became less aracve hereafer. Second as we can see on he map Pearl Rver Dela Yangsé Dela and Boha Golf area were he hree mos aracve regons n The Eas-Souhern provnces became more and more aracve n he second half of he 990s. Durng hs perod no only mgraons comng from neghbourng provnces were ncreasng bu also he long dsance mgraons comng from cenral provnces grew consderably. On he conrary he role of Boha Golf area aroud Bejng and Tanjn as a mgraon desnaon became less mporan. I urns ou ha he mgraon flows before 990 only perss afer 990 n coasal provnces. GDP per capa level plays an mporan role n aracng mgrans regardless of mgraon ypes and regons. The coeffcen for FDI per capa s sgnfcan for rural/urban mgraons bu no for urban/urban mgraons. Ths can be explaned by he fac ha he urban/urban mgrans reman conrolled by he governmen and less nfluenced by he labour marke. s menoned above he effec of FDI on mgraons s manly owng o job creaon. Fscal expendures show nverse resuls o he FDI varable: hey have a posve and sgnfcan effec n he urban/urban mgraon regressons bu no n he rural/urban mgraons. Urban/urban mgrans are conssed of mosly permanen mgrans workng n sae secors herefore ces wh a hgh level of fscal expendure are aracve o hem. Fscal expendures are also an ndcaor of lfe qualy n ces; hs resul consss wh ha of Chen and Coulson (2002) whch fnd ha several ndcaors of lfe qualy have lle nfluence on he cy populaon growh. Moreover emporary mgrans can hardly benef from hese publc goods fnanced by fscal expendures. s a resul hese ndcaors of lfe qualy are no aracve o such ype of emporary mgrans. The effec of he number of college sudens (per 00 persons) s weak bu sgnfcan and posve. In fac he enrolmen n colleges and unverses consues anoher way o become a permanen urban resden. Ths may explan why he varable s sgnfcan n he regressons of urban/urban mgraons bu no n hose of rural/urban mgraons. The mpac of adjused dsance and squared dsance beween a cy and he provncal capal s sgnfcan for nland provnces. The posve and sgnfcan coeffcen ndcaes a U-form relaonshp beween he adjused dsance and he number of mgrans arrvng n he ces. Tha means ha new cenres could appear n nland provnces and around he bg ces n hese provnces. In coasal provnces he developmen s unbalanced and large ces are hghly aracve hen he coeffcen of dsance s no sgnfcan. 4

15 Table 4 Deermnans of cy mgrans numbers Dependan varable: ogarhm of cy mgrans number durng ll mgrans Rural-urban mgrans Urban-urban mgrans Toal Coasal Provnces Inland Provnces Toal Coasal Provnces Inland Provnces Toal Coasal Provnces Inland Provnces og (oal populaon 0.787*** 0.782*** 0.776*** 0.656*** 0.699*** 0.672*** 0.873*** 0.866*** 0.859*** (3.77) (8.04) (0.4) (7.64) (4.97) (6.8) (5.35) (0.83) (3.4) og (number of mgrans ll mgrans (0.26) (0.22) (-0.5) Rural-urban mgrans (-0.94) (-.50) (-.6) Urban-urban mgrans 0.026** 0.028* 0.07 (2.53) (.8) (.35) og (GDP per capa) 0.74*** 0.744*** 0.739*** 0.564*** 0.592*** 0.59*** 0.9*** 0.970*** 0.976*** (9.3) (5.07) (6.64) (4.83) (2.94) (3.47) (.85) (8.57) (0.97) og (FDI) 0.082*** 0.44*** 0.05*** 0.27*** 0.240*** 0.72*** (4.77) (4.06) (4.27) (4.80) (4.8) (4.89) (0.76) (0.29) (-0.3) Fscal expendure/gdp 2.50*** *** 5.436*** 4.706*** (3.45) (0.74) (0.75) (0.25) (-0.84) (-0.93) (6.37) (4.05) (4.23) College suden number per 00 person 0.9*** * 0.78** *** 0.27*** 0.286*** (3.45) (0.97) (.95) (2.5) (0.67) (.38) (5.63) (3.44) (4.4) jused Dsance -.29*** *** -.98*** ** ** (-3.9) (-0.89) (-2.8) (-3.7) (-0.67) (-2.42) (-.6) (-0.84) (-2.24) jused Dsance n square.08*** **.43*** * ** (2.8) (0.35) (2.35) (2.65) (0.05) (.80) (.40) (0.83) (2.46) Consan *** *** *** (0.26) (0.02) (0.49) (.56) (0.63) (.57) (-3.54) (-3.5) (-3.48) 2 R N Noe: suden values are ndcaed n parenhess. *** : sgnfcan a % level; ** :sgnfcan a 5% level; * : sgnfcan a 0% level. s n populaon growh regressons he dfferences beween nland and coasal provnces n mgraon paerns owards ces are also nsgnfcan. However dfferences beween wo ypes of mgraon paerns are obvous. Ces aracve o rural-urban mgrans are no he same as hose aracve o urban/urban mgrans. The explanaon les always n he saus of he mgrans. s he offcal mgraon s sll under he conrol of he governmen here are grea dfferences beween permanen and emporary mgrans. For emporary mgraons (rural-urban) he economc facors are very mporan; herefore populaon growh s more affeced by GDP and FDI levels. Ths knd of mgraon s o a large exen he resul of ndvdual decsons drven by marke forces and he mgrans have lmed access o urban publc servces and nfrasrucures. For permanen mgrans he nfluence comes from facors such as fscal expendures. s a resul ces along eas coas have been aracve for emporary mgrans bu permanen mgrans are leadng o ces where governmens spend more money on publc nfrasrucures and servces. These resuls underlne he crucal role of he polcy appled he governmen wh he Hukou sysem. Concluson By usng a panel daa of abou 50 ces n Chna we esmae he deermnans of cy populaon growh as well as mgraon owards ces. Facors suggesed by heores relave on urbanzaon and mgraon are nroduced o es her effec n he case of Chnese. 5

16 Our emprcal resuls show ha n general he deermnaon of urban growh and mgraon are no que dfferen beween coasal and nland provnces. Regonal dfferences observed n urban growh and mgraon come manly from dspares n GDP and FDI level facors ha are largely affeced by governmen polces n regonal developmen and economc openness. In he meanme our resuls show sgnfcan dfferences beween dfferen ypes of mgraons and cy populaon growh. More precsely oal cy populaon growh comes manly from sponaneous rural/urban mgraon whereas non-agrculural populaon growh depends o a grea exen on offcal urban/urban mgraon. The former s more subjec o marke behavours and he laer s more affeced by governmen polces. Rural-urban mgrans sll have emporary saus n ces and have lmed access o urban publc servces whch hampers he unfcaon of urban labour marke and he urban growh Our fndngs sugges ha urban growh process n Chna remans resrced by he governmen parcularly by regonal developmen polces and mgraon lmaons. To encourage a rapd and more balanced urban growh and economc developmen conrol on rural/urban mgraons should be removed and more mporance should be aached o nland provnces. References Bhalla. S. (990) Rural-Urban Dspares n Inda and Chna World Developmen 8(8) Chan K.W. Zhang. (999) The Hukou sysem and rural-urban mgraon n Chna: Processes and Changes The Chna Quarerly Chen. Coulson N.E. (2002) Deermnan of Urban Mgraon: Evdence from Chnese Ces Urban Sudes 39(2) Chen J. Flesher B. M. (996) Regonal Income Inequaly and Economc Growh n Chna Journal of Comparave Economcs Fan C. C. 999 Mgraon n a Socals Transonal Economy Heerogeney Socoeconomc and Spaal Characerscs of Mgrans n Chna and Guangdong Inernaonal Mgraon Revew 33 (4) Glaeser E.. Schenkman J.. Shlefer. (995) Economc Growh n a Cross-secon of ces Journal of Moneary Economcs Glaeser E.. Shapro J Is There a New Urbansm? The Growh of U.S. Ces n he 990s Dscusson paper No. 925 Havard Insue of Economc Research. Hackenberg R.. (980) New paerns of urbanzaon n Souheas sa: an assessmen Populaon and Developmen Revew 6(3): Harrs J.R. e M. P. Todaro (970) Mgraon Unemploymen nd Developmen : Two-Secor nalyss mercan Economc Revew 60: Jones G. W. (99) Urbanzaon ssues n he san-pacfc regon san-pacfc Economc eraure 5(2):5-33 Krugman P. (99) Increasng Reurns and Economc Geography Journal of polcal economy 99(3) ews W.. (954) Economc Developmen wh Unlmed Supply of abour The Mancheser School of Economc and Socal Sudes 47(3) H. Zahnser S. (2002) The Deermnans of Temporary Rural-o-Urban Mgraon n Chna Urban Sudes 39(2) S. (997) Populaon Mgraon Regonal Economc Growh and Income Deermnaon: Comparave Sudy of Dongguan and Mezhou Chna Urban Sudes 34(7) yons T. (99) Inerprovncal Dspares n Chna: Oupu and Consumpon Developmen and Culural Change 39(3) Economc Ma.J.C. n C.S. (993) Developmen of owns n Chna: a case sudy of Guangdong Provnce Populaon and Developmen Revew 9(3)

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