How plants and animals respond to climate change

Transcription

1 Michael Guiry How plants and animals respond to climate change Dr Ceridwen (Crid) Fraser Fenner School of Environment and Society

2 Pleistocene climate change Pleistocene: up until 2.6 million years ago Onset of major ice ages O 16 O 18 Oxygen More isotope glaciers O is lighter than 16 ratio O 18 in marine records More Evaporates O = more found O more in in glaciers sea water and Last Ice marine Age organisms microorganisms easily Modified from Imbrie et al. 1984, and redrawn from:

3 Why do we care? Understanding the biological impacts of past climate change can help us to predict the impacts of future climate change. Figure modified from IPCC 2007

4 Large-scale responses to As the climate changes, a species can: - Move - Adapt - Go extinct climate change

5 Movement of species with climate change Pole Ice / cold Plants / animals Equator With climate change, populations can shift towards / away from equator Pole Plants / animals Ice / cold

6 Genetic effects of distribution changes PACIFIC OCEAN 30 N 60 N North Pole ATLANTIC OCEAN

7 Genetic effects of distribution changes PACIFIC OCEAN 30 N 60 N North Pole ATLANTIC OCEAN

8 Movement of species with climate change Distributions of spruce and oak based on pollen records /5517/673/F1.expansion.html

9 ELEVATION Movement of species with climate change Adiabatic (pressure) cooling means high altitudes are cooler than low range and_wildlife_sciences/wildland_fire_ management_and_planning/unit_7 atmospheric_stability_and_instabili ty_1.html

10 ELEVATION Movement of species with climate change Adiabatic (pressure) cooling means high altitudes are cooler than low Dots: distribution during last Ice Age Lines: current distribution ntent/292/5517/673.full

11 Chen et al. 2011, Science Movement of species with climate change Comma butterfly, in Britain, has moved 135 miles northward, from central England to Edinburgh, over the past 20 years. Golden-winged Warbler, in the USA and Canada, has expanded its range northward by at least 125 miles in the past 20 years. Pika, a small mouse-like rodent in Yosemite national park, has moved 1,600 feet uphill in the past century. Atlas moth, on Mount Kinabalu in Borneo has moved 220 feet uphill over the past 40 years.

12 Large-scale responses to As the climate changes, a species can: - Move - Adapt - Go extinct climate change 20 th Century Fox

13 Adaptation climate-induced range shifts can involve not only migration into newly suitable areas, but also selection against [individuals] that are poor dispersers or are poorly adapted to local conditions Pearson and Dawson, 2003, Glob. Ecol. Biog. Bush crickets (Conocephalus discolor) in the UK had generally longer wings in new (dispersive) populations. Thomas et al. 2001, Nature

14 Adaptation Navelwort: plants transplanted into much colder environments rapidly evolved the ability to germinate at temperatures that they would not normally have been able to Woodward, 1990

15 Adaptation Some species are able to adapt with climate change others are not Past distributions of some species (e.g. Fagus sp - Beech) indicate that they do not adapt to changing conditions, and that their ranges are much more restricted when climate is not ideal. Huntley et al,

16 Large-scale responses to As the climate changes, a species can: - Move - Adapt - Go extinct climate change

17 Extinctions Under predicted levels of global warming, one third of coral species are expected to go extinct Carpenter et al. 2008, Science

18 What s happening closer to home? More sub-tropical species are moving south, into and beyond the ACT GREY-HEADED FLYING FOX 1980s: started a colony in Melbourne 12 in 1985, more than 20,000 in 2003 (Parris and Hazell 2005, Biol Cons) 2002: heat (>42 C) killed 3500 in NSW (Wellbergen et al. 2008, RSPB) Northern limit has moved 400 km south (Parris and Hazell 2005, Biol Cons)

19 What s happening closer to home? East Australian coastal species are moving south Polokszanska et al. 2011, JMBE Nerita costata Harry Rose, Wikimedia Commons 505 km in last 80 years

20 Michael Guiry Southern bull-kelp, Durvillaea potatorum, south-eastern Australia Where can southern species go?

21 To consider: Maintaining the status quo is not possible species must be allowed to move. Should we help them to move? How do we conserve ecosystems that are changing? Should the goal be to protect biodiversity, not particular ecosystems?