The unprecedented investment through nuclear new build could lead to an unsustainable impact on local employment

Transcription

1 The unprecedented investment through nuclear new build could lead to an unsustainable impact on local employment May 2015

2 Report by the Leader to Leader Programme October 2014 Cohort Cohort Liam Duffy Steve Glasson Ian Grant Charles Holmes John Jackson Dave Lewis Catherine Nicholson Elizabeth Spedding Beverley Stothart Organisation Sealy Sellafield Ltd Iggesund (Holman Group) Allerdale BC Story Homes Limited NSG Environmental Allerdale BC Sellafield Ltd DRS This report is based upon work supported by the Centre of Leadership and Performance Leader to Leader Programme Any opinions, findings, conclusions or recommendations are those of the authors and do not reflect the views of the Centre for Leadership Performance (CfLP) 2 The unprecedented investment through nuclear new build could lead to an unsustainable impact on local employment - May 2015

3 Contents 1.0 Executive Summary Introduction to the report Background Methodology and Assumptions Findings Business and Enterprise Skills Infrastructure Housing Community Analysis Conclusions Recommendations 70 Appendices Bibliography The unprecedented investment through nuclear new build could lead to an unsustainable impact on local employment - May

4 Executive Summary Purpose This is a report of the Consultancy Challenge set by the sponsors of the 2015 Leader to Leader cohort, as part of the Centre for Leadership Performance (CfLP) Leader to Leader programme. The challenge chosen was to look at the impact of the proposed nuclear new build near Sellafield on Cumbria, and address the following problem statement:- The unprecedented investment through nuclear new build could lead to an unsustainable impact on local employment The report sets out a vision for Cumbria if the problem statement is solved. How did we approach the problem statement Using our skills and knowledge we agreed that we would approach the problem from five key theme areas. These were Business and Enterprise, Skills, Infrastructure, Housing and Community. A survey was designed and distributed to 250 local Cumbrian residents to identify what the community needed to become engaged in the success of the new build investment in the area. Further primary research was undertaken by interviewing four key leaders from the area. Secondary research was conducted via the Cumbrian Observatory, Office for National Statistics, transport groups and information from a number of organisations and website, which are referenced in the bibliography. 4 The unprecedented investment through nuclear new build could lead to an unsustainable impact on local employment - May 2015

5 Findings The opportunities that will arise from the new build programme are unprecedented and could boost the economy significantly. Together with these opportunities is the potential threat that the local economy could suffer through a cycle of Boom and Bust. Innovation and risk appetite is lacking and plans are needed to address this as it drives the economy after a period of boom so that the bust that follows is reduced. There are a number of organisations looking at the skills required locally to fill the expected vacancies and a general understanding that there are not sufficient numbers locally to fill many of the construction phase jobs. The demand on the transport infrastructure will increase significantly due to the increased employment prospects and associated commuter travel and increased freight movement requirements. The rail infrastructure in particular has been under invested in for years and the capacity has to be increased if Cumbria is to be seen as the place to invest and develop new businesses. Both local authorities have prepared for aspirational housing growth and have already embedded a planning policy framework to facilitate this. A total of 100 completed surveys were returned by local residents. They are generally supportive of the nuclear new build proposed and are looking for a long term sustainable investment in their localities and communities. In terms of employment the community are looking for this new investment to either create or support jobs that are as robust as possible and provide value to the local economy. In a rural area like West Cumbria, this is particularly important. The main fear that the community expresses is that nothing will change and that there will be no long term sustainable investment in the area, particularly around infrastructure. They fear that without this the area will suffer and not reap any benefit from the investment. The unprecedented investment through nuclear new build could lead to an unsustainable impact on local employment - May

6 Conclusions and Recommendations The proposed investment in Cumbria through the siting and building of new nuclear power stations provide a unique opportunity for the area to create a strong local economy. Cumbria is already a diverse energy generator and there is a real opportunity here to ensure that it becomes the place to provide an energy focussed skilled labour market. There is a clear awareness and understanding of the skills needed to fill the jobs required for this new investment. There is also an awareness of the shortage of available workforce in the local area. This concludes that a migrant workforce will be necessary at least in the short term, and that the area should now focus on the employment skills required for the back end of the project when the initial peak period is over. In terms of infrastructure, transport is a major factor in the successful economic growth and sustainability of a community. The local population have a heavy dependence on a small number of large employers in the area and it would seem that this is stifling creativity and the desire to create new enterprise in the area. Funding and support has to be given to the development of an environment that provides education and confidence to develop a culture that is willing to take risks and looks outward. By investing in our own enterprise, Cumbria will be well placed to welcome the opportunities that these major infrastructure projects bring. 6 The unprecedented investment through nuclear new build could lead to an unsustainable impact on local employment - May 2015

7 In summary, Cumbria has a unique opportunity to develop a strong economy given the increased investment provided by New Build, but only by looking beyond new build can this become sustainable. Our research has indicated that the right conditions for doing business must be in place to take advantage of the opportunities from this investment. Innovation drives the economy, and this is particularly relevant after a period of boom so that the bust is mitigated. In conclusion the following recommendations are put forward:- Business support organisations create a financial fund that would be used to encourage people to think differently and encourage entrepreneurial business start- ups. The organisations would have to be prepared to lose this money in order to create the cultural change. The route for local contractors into the supply chain is made simple, straight forward and is easy to access Any temporary accommodation to house the migrant workforce is sited in the most sustainable locations close to or within existing settlements Members of the Cumbrian Rail Strategy group work together to secure funding and a delivery plan to increase the capacity of the Cumbrian Coast rail line. The unprecedented investment through nuclear new build could lead to an unsustainable impact on local employment - May

8 8 Title?? Story Homes, May 2015

9 Title?? Story Homes, May 2015 Introduction to the Report 9

10 Introduction to the Report The problem / opportunity The UK has16 nuclear reactors generating about 18% of its electricity and all but one of these will be retired by When they do close the UK will lose up to 10 million kilowatts of installed electricity generation capacity. As demand for energy rises and as the UK strives to reduce its dependence on fossil fuels and reduce CO2 emissions, this presents a significant challenge. Nuclear energy is an existing technology that can be used to produce a large amount of electricity safely and without emitting CO2 at point of generation. NuGen is a joint venture between Toshiba and GDF SUEZ. Having secured an option to purchase land on the West Cumbrian Coast from the Nuclear Decommissioning Authority, NuGen s aims to build and develop plans to build up to 3.4 GW of new nuclear capacity in West Cumbria. It is proposed that NuGen will build three Westinghouse AP1000 Plants, which will come online from 2024, and will deliver enough low-carbon electricity to power up to six million homes. The project is estimated to create 6,000 new jobs during construction and approximately 1,000 jobs during operation. Purpose of the proposal As the proposed nuclear new build is a significant investment into Cumbria, the group s sponsors set us the consultancy challenge of looking into what impact it could have on the area. The geographical area of West Cumbria has a track record of booms and busts. Previous investment in the existing nuclear site has seen the local communities benefit from a jump in jobs, increases in income, and investment in infrastructure the Boom. However when the construction phase and peak is over the same communities suddenly find themselves facing unemployment, loss of income and a declining population the Bust. These cycles of boom and bust can take a heavy toll on communities and consideration is required about how, or whether, plans can be put in place to mitigate the negative impacts. This report describes some of the key problems the boom-bust cycle can create and offers recommendations for how communities can best beat the cycle. As a group representing a diverse range of businesses and organisations, the purpose of this report is to review the effect on the Cumbrian residents and to review how the community can become engaged and invested in the success of the new build project. 10 The unprecedented investment through nuclear new build could lead to an unsustainable impact on local employment - May 2015

11 The problem statement that the report aims to address is:- The unprecedented investment through nuclear new build could lead to an unsustainable impact on local employment Scope of the report This report will focus on the socio-economic aspects of nuclear new build on the local communities. In terms of infrastructure, the report concentrates on the transport only aspects. Changing levels of employment, wealth and population can also fuel social problems, including crime, loss of culture, drug and alcohol abuse. This report does not cover the social impacts on the communities. The environmental impact on the area is also not contained within the scope of this report. Who are we? This report has been produced by the 2015 cohort for the Centre for Leadership Performance (CfLP) Leader to Leader programme. We are a diverse group of emerging leaders from a range of different businesses in both the public and private sectors. Each of our respective organisations are impacted by the capital investment project proposed through the nuclear new build project and we therefore bring a strong crosssectional voice to the economic impact of this investment into West Cumbria. The unprecedented investment through nuclear new build could lead to an unsustainable impact on local employment - May

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13 Title?? Story Homes, May 2015 Background Methodology & Assumptions 13

14 Background - Methodology and Assumptions General Background As a multi-skilled group who represent industry and businesses in both the private and public sectors we have used our expertise to take a cross-cutting approach to the research. The background research to this report is built on five themes that impact and influence local employment and jobs. These are:- Business and Enterprise Skills Infrastructure Housing Community Skills With the unprecedented investment through the building of the new nuclear power stations, comes the need for the right skills mix to fill the job opportunities that will arise. For the community to be engaged in the success of the new build project the local Cumbrian residents need to have the skills to work either directly for the industry or in the supply chain. This section review the availability of labour locally and the skills education and training that would be required to fill the expectant vacancies. Business and Enterprise This section analyses the number and types of businesses and enterprise start-ups in Cumbria and reviews data analysis from the Cumbria Observatory and the Office of National Statistics. It reviews the impact of reliance on larger employers, looks at the numbers and types of businesses in the area and their potential impacts on each other. 14 The unprecedented investment through nuclear new build could lead to an unsustainable impact on local employment - May 2015

15 Infrastructure Infrastructure can be described as the basic physical and organisational structures and facilities, eg buildings, roads, power supplies, that are needed for the operation of an organisation or society. This is a broad subject and for the purpose of this report only the transport aspects of infrastructure are covered. This report assumes that there will be increased employment opportunities and therefore associated commuter travel. It also assumes that there will be additional requirements for freight movements and therefore only transportation infrastructure is addressed. Further, only Sea and Rail transportation has been researched, due to the following benefits Fuel efficiencies Sea is 6 times more efficient in fuel than road and rail up to 3 times. Reduced carbon emissions Cost effectiveness for large volumes and long distance Safer than road Reduced impact on local communities. Housing The housing section researches the impact on the housing market during the construction phase of the project and the longer term impact. With a peak workforce of 6,000 employees during the construction phase, demand on the local housing market will be significant and could impact the local population. This section reviews the housing needs requirements between now and Community In order to establish what the views of the local residents of Cumbria are toward the new build project and what would make it successful for them, the marketing research focussed on gathering primary data that was not readily available. A number of options were considered, such as focus groups, public information displays, structured interviews. Due to time restraints and the availability of team these methods were not progressed. Instead, a decision was made to capture the hopes and fears of the community through a survey and a number of interviews. This would allow for a greater sample of the community to be reached and analysed. The survey was compiled by a sub-team and issued to a wide range of groups from school ages to retirement age and from North to South Cumbria. The unprecedented investment through nuclear new build could lead to an unsustainable impact on local employment - May

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17 Title?? Story Homes, May 2015 Findings Business & Enterprise 17

18 Findings Business and Enterprise Background West Cumbria has a real commercial advantage in the nuclear, manufacturing and advanced engineering sectors of the economy. Around 36% of the UK s civil nuclear industry is located in West Cumbria making it a region of national strategic importance. The opportunities that will arise from the new build programme are unprecedented and could boost the economy significantly both for industry already aligned directly with the Nuclear, Construction, Engineering, and Manufacturing Industries as well as having a major impact in boosting the wider economy indirectly through the significant influx of people coming to live and work in the area. The potential for the local economy to go through a cycle of boom and Bust is a real risk and comes with many wider challenges to the local social infrastructure including, Community Safety, Social Cohesion, Jobs and Business decline. The major challenge for the area is to ensure that at the local economy, through the business and enterprise sector, is in a better position post nuclear new build than the current state of the local economy, in terms of numbers of enterprises and overall employment levels of enterprises in the area. The opportunities from Nuclear sector and establishing a Centre of Nuclear Excellence (CoNE) are well known and being recognised for exportable skills internationally particularly in decommissioning continues to be a major opportunity for new and existing enterprises. It is now thought that the previously predicted loss of jobs will not be as significant as thought previously as the challenges of decommissioning extend many years into the future. The long term employment forecasts for West Cumbria (primarily associated with the nuclear sector) are set out in the graph below: BEC the West Cumbria Economic Blueprint 18 The unprecedented investment through nuclear new build could lead to an unsustainable impact on local employment - May 2015

19 The longer term nature of the industry provides greater levels of confidence experienced by other sectors. The UK nuclear decommissioning programme is worth nearly 80 billion, the majority of which is centred upon Sellafield and is estimated at 300 billion globally. There are therefore many international opportunities that new and existing businesses should be able to benefit from, providing their capacity is sufficiently built to be able to bid for and win these overseas contracts. The vast majority of Cumbria s workforce at around 75% are employed working in the manufacturing, distribution/hotels/restaurants or public administration/education/health. People employed in the Nuclear Sector are classified as working in Manufacturing, as there is not a separate business classification for the Nuclear Sector. 25% of people work in tourism-related sectors in West Cumbria (hotels, restaurants, retail trade and wholesale trade). *ONS Annual Business Inquiry* Impact of reliance on larger employers A number of key issues remain in terms of the West Cumbria economy in relation to Nuclear New Build. There exists a high dependence upon a small number of large employers which mainly have their head-quarters outside the region. These large employers currently provide jobs to the majority of the population. This is particularly true of the Nuclear Sector, with other examples being Iggesund (paperboard) and Innovia Films. Most of these companies are in foreign ownership and subject to the volatile nature of the global economy and as such leave a potential risk to the closure of local employment sites in West Cumbria. A recent example is the announcement from Eastman Chemicals of the closure in March 2015 of the Workington plant. The high reliance on a small number of large employers can lead to an area not having as many people who are entrepreneurial in nature. Enterprise births are expressed as a rate so that comparisons can be made. The standard Office for National Statistics method of calculating such rates is to use the stock of active enterprises as the denominator. This has been a problem in the recent past for both Cumbria and West Cumbria and was compounded by the effects of the recession. The rate of new firm formation per head for West Cumbria over recent years has been consistently lower than the Cumbria rate and consistently lower than the North West average. In 2014 in the year to Nov there were an average of 85 businesses per 10,000 working age population formed; lower than the Cumbria Average of 90 per 10,000 working age population. The enterprise birth rate in Cumbria was 11.4 in 2013 which is one of the lowest nationally, placing the county 82nd out of 91 unitary/ upper tier authorities in England. There is though some evidence that, particularly in Copeland that, enterprise birth rates are improving, as Copeland exceeded the national rate in 2013 placing them 63rd out of 307 lower tier areas in England (where 1 is the highest rate), and since 2010 all six districts in Cumbria including Allerdale and Copeland have seen an increase in business birth rates. (Cumbria Observatory Statistical Briefing Jan 2015). The unprecedented investment through nuclear new build could lead to an unsustainable impact on local employment - May

20 Population of Cumbrian Enterprise Cumbria has a total population of almost 22,000 registered companies across a diverse range of businesses and market sectors. Across the six constituencies, South Lakeland has the highest number of registered businesses, with Copeland and Barrow the least. A breakdown is demonstrated in the chart below: Locality of Cumbrian businesses to the planned New Build site at Moorside may be relevant in determining the likely impact, whether they be in considering opportunities or indeed risks. Furthermore, the type of business (relative to the main business sectors) are likely to be affected in very different ways. 20 The unprecedented investment through nuclear new build could lead to an unsustainable impact on local employment - May 2015

21 There are 8 primary sectors which represent 79% of the total number of businesses across Cumbria. As such this section of the report will focus upon the following key areas. Agriculture, forestry & fishing 21.5% Manufacturing - 4.8% Construction 11.8% Retail 7.6% Accommodation & food services 8.6% Professional, scientific & technical 13.4% Business administration & support services 5.7% Arts, entertainment, recreation & other services 5.3% Each constituency differs in terms of its business population, with agriculture, forestry and fishing remaining the primary business in South Lakeland, Eden, Allerdale and Carlisle. Conversely it is professional, scientific and technical that are the primary business types in Copeland and Barrow. This principally aligns with two of the major industrial centres in Cumbria (Sellafield and BAE Systems Barrow). The unprecedented investment through nuclear new build could lead to an unsustainable impact on local employment - May

22 Potential Impacts relative to each business sector A matrix detailing the potential impacts relative to each business sector is shown in Appendix A. Please note these impacts have been grouped wherever possible to support analysis and generate key themes. The consequences of the impact within each group will differ in application from each sector. A summary of the potential impacts relative to the 8 primary business sectors are highlighted below: Agriculture, forestry & fishing Negative impacts are a potential loss of labour to civil construction, and increased labour costs due to higher demand. Manufacturing Positives impacts are the demand for products from new developments; increased demand for products from additional population; and increased demand as a result of higher than average earnings. Negative Impacts are the potential loss of labour to civil construction; increased labour costs due to higher demand; increased competition for resources / raw materials; increased congestion to existing transport. Construction Positive impacts are new work opportunities Negative Impacts are the potential loss of labour to civil construction; increased labour costs due to higher demand; Increased material costs / material shortages. Retail Positive impacts are the increased demand for products from increased population and increased demand as a result of higher than average earnings The negative impacts are that migrant workers do not spend locally; increased demand on resources leads to higher cost; Increasing demand for retail outlets increases rates; increased competition from new businesses increases labour cost / reduces margin. Accommodation & food services The positive impacts are an increased demand for subsistence particularly close to new development or main transport routes The negative impacts are the servicing short term demand alienates existing customers; Additional disruption from influx of resources; and increased competition from new businesses increases labour and supply costs. Professional, scientific & technical The positive impacts are the new work contracts to be gained as part of new developments and the opportunity to diversify / expand existing business. The negative impacts are supply chains already established with few opportunities to penetrate and increased labour cost due to increased competition for skilled resources. 22 The unprecedented investment through nuclear new build could lead to an unsustainable impact on local employment - May 2015

23 Way Forward and Potential Areas of Support Business administration & support services The positive impacts are the new work contracts to be gained as part of new developments / expanding businesses and the opportunity to diversify / expand The negative impacts are the increased labour cost due to increased competition for skilled resources. Arts, entertainment, recreation & other services The positive impacts an increased demand from additional population and an increased demand from higher than average salary The negative impacts are the potential for alienation of existing customers reduced demand from tourism; alienation of existing customers reduced demand from local residents and that increased demand outstrips capacity. Fundamentally, the right conditions for doing business must be in place to take advantage of opportunities from nuclear new build. Key priorities could include: programme of business support with the creation of a fund to encourage entrepreneurial business start-ups. The business support organisations would have to be prepared to lose this money in order to create the cultural change needed. inward investment support to encourage overseas and indigenous investment procurement support for local contractors; develop technology support for companies; develop enterprise culture initiatives for adults, to encourage them to consider enterprise as an alternative to being an employee; development of high quality hotel and conference offering, increasing business and leisure town centre accommodation offer. The unprecedented investment through nuclear new build could lead to an unsustainable impact on local employment - May

24 Conclusion Nuclear New Build represents a major opportunity for the supply chain, and has the potential to act as a catalyst for increasing the diversity of the Cumbrian economy. Ensuring that local suppliers take advantage of opportunities is essential and supporting businesses to maximise those opportunities is a key activity essential to Cumbria maintaining maximum benefit from nuclear new build. Businesses should therefore be encouraged to develop capacity in taking advantage of the short term supply chain opportunities of new build along with seeking opportunities to work outside of Cumbria and potentially into overseas markets. Knowing that the local economy will continue to grow, support must be provided to those developing businesses to encourage them to seek opportunities to diversify and/ or seek other markets, following the completion of nuclear new build. This should help to mitigate the potential for future decline. It is recognised that much work has been undertaken in recent years to put in place a network of support for new business creation, existing businesses and generating a more entrepreneurial culture in the area. There are a number of existing and new initiatives that are making an impact in West Cumbria, supported by the Local Authorities, Britain s Energy Coast (BEC), the Centre of Nuclear Excellence (CoNE), Chamber of Commerce and the Regional Growth Fund. Examples of these support programmes include Innovus, Link Start, Backing Business, BEC Investment Fund and Fusion Go. It is therefore critical that work should continue to make access to business support as simple and straight-forward as possible so that businesses and new entrepreneurs get the right level of help they need, when they need it. Work should also continue in schools to promote the development of enterprise and encourage self-employment. This should aim to provide children and young people with the skills and increased levels of aspiration so that once they leave full-time education the prospect of being self-employed is a real prospect and is at least or indeed more attractive than simply working for a large employer. It is also relevant to point to other major infrastructure developments that are potentially being considered for the West Cumbrian area. 24 The unprecedented investment through nuclear new build could lead to an unsustainable impact on local employment - May 2015

25 These include a Tidal Power Generating Lagoon and a Geological Disposal Facility for the Nations Higher Level Radioactive Waste. In researching this Consultancy Challenge the team interviewed the Leader of Allerdale Borough Council, Councillor Alan Smith whose view on mitigation of Boom and Bust was to ensure that the area had the next large employment opportunity lined up following the completion of Nuclear New Build. It is recognised that significant employment opportunities could be achieved through these major infrastructure developments, and in the same way that the nation s energy needs are understood to require a broad mix of power supplies (incl. nuclear, gas & renewables), the successful future of Cumbria s economy is likely to include a broad mix of large scale infrastructure developments as well as diversity and growth in new and existing small and medium sized businesses (SME s). Ultimately, once Cumbria can create a business environment that is no longer reliant on being a host to major developments, it will be better positioned to mitigate decline. In summary, Cumbria has a unique opportunity to develop a strong economy given the increased investment provided by New Build, but only by looking beyond new build can this become sustainable. Continued focus, efforts and funding must be on creating an environment for new enterprise by educating the population to consider looking beyond big industry employment as well as providing the support and investment for new businesses. By investing in our own enterprise, Cumbria will be well placed to welcome these additional major infrastructure opportunities, but its future will no longer be dependent upon them. Creating confidence to have a go and recognising that not everything will succeed, will provide Cumbria with the best opportunity to grow. The unprecedented investment through nuclear new build could lead to an unsustainable impact on local employment - May

26 26 Title?? Story Homes, May 2015

27 Title?? Story Homes, May 2015 Findings Skills 27

28 Findings Skills Background With the unprecedented investment that will be occurring in west Cumbria through the building of the new nuclear power stations, job opportunities are going to arise. The question is, will there be the skill base required to fulfil the number of available positions and are there the courses in place to match what skillset is required. Looking at the Tier 2 Shortage Occupation list there are many occupations that are listed that are relevant to the nuclear and power generating/ distribution industries. The occupations listed are as follows:- 1 Production managers and directors in energy 2 Physical Scientists 3 Civil Engineers 4 Electrical Engineers 5 Production and process engineers 6 Engineering Professionals 7 Quality control and planning Engineers 8 Engineering Technicians 9 Line repairers and cable jointers This indicates that there is a national shortage on a number of relevant skill sets.] Aligned with this there will also be a large number of construction opportunities arising with the building and infrastructure improvements that are aligned with the new build. There are also other projects being banded that could also provide more opportunities, such as the tidal lagoon or the underground storage facility. There will also be opportunities arising in the service sector. Labour Availability With all these potential opportunities arising the first question is: - Are there enough unemployed people in the region to fill the vacancies? Looking at the latest statistics from the Cumbrian Observatory for April are the following The JSA claimant count in Cumbria was 4,309 in March Of which 260 are looking for work in the construction industry of these claimants are from Allerdale and 547 from Copeland which are the two most relevant locations. The number of new positions being available being muted on the Nugen website is 6,000, of which 3000 will relate to the local economy. So the answer to the question: - Are there enough people? Is no. 28 The unprecedented investment through nuclear new build could lead to an unsustainable impact on local employment - May 2015

29 Skills Education and Training What this does however mean is that there will be opportunities arising for any unemployed person to potentially get a job. So are there courses available? Looking at the nuclear side, there is a new national nuclear college planned for West Cumbria to be built at Lilly hall. This is being led by Sellafield and EDF energy and supported by local schools and colleges. This will then enhance the courses that are already available in the area. This is planned to help meet the requirements of 30,000 new employees required in the sector during the next decade. This will also help to promote Cumbria as a centre for nuclear excellence with the training of apprenticeships and other relevant qualifications. There are also many courses available in other industries, e.g. construction/engineering for people with a different skillset, many being available at Lakes College with many other training providers being situated throughout Cumbria. So opportunities are available for anyone wishing to enhance their skillsets. For information over apprenticeships have been created in Cumbria in the last 5 years which shows the area is doing something right. Risks and Opportunities For anyone in industries directly affected by the new build e.g. construction then there is potentially a risk that they could lose skilled staff. It is also probable that getting hold of staff in the local area could also become an issue, this being down to the number of jobs available vs labour availability in the area. It could also mean that the cost of hiring will increase as wage demands will go up if demand is there. The opportunities are that the new developments will bring in a migrant workforce, which looking at what labour will potentially be available is going to happen. This could then lead to an influx of skilled workers into the area, across a number of sectors. If you are then looking for one of these skillsets and you have the right employment package in place then you are potentially getting a previously unavailable skills market brought to your doorstep. There is also the risk that with the focus on training that is occurring in the area that courses struggle to attract the relevant number of candidates to keep a course viable. The opportunity is that the courses will bring in an influx of new students into the area which again once trained gives the potential for employment. There is also the risk that focusing solely on the new build process will be detrimental to other business sectors in the area, i.e. people steer away from these areas as greater rewards can be seen in the new build area. So somewhere there has to be a balancing act between what is wanted and what is achievable. The unprecedented investment through nuclear new build could lead to an unsustainable impact on local employment - May

30 Conclusion Once we started to look at this area it became immediately apparent that a lot of work and research has already been done. It was therefore a case that anything new and startling was unlikely to become immediately apparent. There is investment going on in this area and an understanding that there is a skills shortage so plans are in place to help remedy this. Are they the right plans, only time will tell as some aspects will work well, with others performing less well. This will undoubtedly be a fine tuning process and one that is ongoing over time. We are going to end up with a migrant workforce but we need to use this to the advantage of the region, and look at it as an opportunity. What we are going to say is let s not miss an opportunity and get blinded by this new build and nuclear juggernaut. The new build is going to come and go with the number of retained jobs going to around 700 on site once it s up and running. Then what? Cumbria is already a diverse energy generator with nuclear, wind farms, solar farms, hydroelectric and biomass all being used to greater or lesser to provide energy. Aligned with this is the prospect of the new tidal lagoon in the Solway. This goes to make Cumbria a centre of excellence for power generation. Let s use it and whilst this investment opportunity is available through the new build plan long term and make this region the First region people look at for anything to do with power generation and distribution in this country. 30 The unprecedented investment through nuclear new build could lead to an unsustainable impact on local employment - May 2015

31 The unprecedented investment through nuclear new build could lead to an unsustainable impact on local employment - May

32 32 Title?? Story Homes, May 2015

33 Title?? Story Homes, May 2015 Findings Infrastructure 33

34 Findings Infrastructure Infrastructure Transport Introduction As part of the West Cumbrian New Build programme there is anticipation of largescale investment within Cumbria that could create both short and long term employment opportunities that could generate jobs and economic growth. These opportunities have the potential to create increased prospects for employment and subsequent commuter travel and freight movements and it will be essential for the successful delivery of the project to develop efficient transport solutions. It is widely understood that the key to a thriving community is the development of a modern and efficient transport infrastructure to support the accessibility, economic development, public health, safety, climate change and the location quality is reliant on a modern and efficient transport infrastructure. As the majority of technical skills required for the construction phase do not currently reside within the Cumbria area it is anticipated that the project will attract a large migrant workforce. Whilst transport infrastructure covers a wide range of issues such as air, road, rail and sea, due to the limited information available at the moment and the perceived benefits for the transports of the construction materials and associated workers this report will concentrate on rail and sea infrastructure. Sea and Rail transport for major construction projects are traditionally used due to the following benefits: Fuel efficiencies Sea is up to 6 times more efficient in fuel than road and rail up 3 times. Carbon emission reductions Cost effective when transporting large volumes and long distance Significantly safer than road Less impact on local communities Large scale rail projects have been proven to work effectively within Cumbria, gaining positive stakeholder support, from both construction companies and local communities by avoiding use of the already seriously congested road networks. For example the recent Vault 9 construction project successfully transported 140,000 tonnes of construction materials into Drigg without disrupting existing services or the local community. This equates to almost 5,000 lorry loads removed from the single track A roads in rural Cumbria. Anticipated Project Demands Passenger The New Build project is potentially worth 5bn and during the construction phase there is anticipated to be approximately 6,000 jobs created with around 1,000 permanent positions when the reactors are operational. Again as with freight movements, people movements will have a drastic effect on an already severely congested road system in and around Egremont and Sellafield. 34 The unprecedented investment through nuclear new build could lead to an unsustainable impact on local employment - May 2015

35 The predicted 6,000 short term construction jobs will need to be transported to site daily potentially over 3 shifts which equates to a small towns population travelling to work sites every day 7 days per week. Workers attracted to the area for highly paid jobs will need accommodation, food and leisure pursuits which will generate increased economy within the area. They will also need a robust commuter system to get to and from work with minimal disruption to the existing community. Road Britain s Energy Coast Blueprint acknowledges the importance of having a well-connected transport infrastructure for the movement of passengers and freight and particularly the role that road transportation can have in enabling smooth passenger transportation links via public transport. Whilst this report concentrates on Rail and Sea transportation, the Blueprint highlights 2 road infrastructure improvements that would have a very positive impact on the area and the importance of their improvement should remain a priority. The road improvements are the Whitehaven Eastern Relief Road which would, assist to alleviate pressure on existing road network and ensure that it is easy for businesses users, residents and visitors to move around West Cumbria, and the Improvements to the A595 / A5086 which are shown in the local Transport Plan as important priorities and their improvement is key to connecting the Port of Workington to the main settlements and Sellafield. Park & Ride An opportunity to avoid further road congestion in the Sellafield area would be to transport workers both construction and operations staff from strategic rail hubs, a Park and Ride system. The 3 sites under consideration are: Workington Maryport Corkickle Work has already commenced and planning permission has already been obtained for Maryport and Workington. Design plans environmental impact studies are ongoing for Corkickle. The hub locations were selected by identified footfall numbers and to encourage greater use of the rail network to avoid further road transport congestion. Cumbrian Coast Rail & Sea Capacity Port of Workington (PoW) The Port of Workington is owned and operated by Cumbria County Council and lies around 17 miles north of Sellafield on the coastal railway line. The Port handles 300,000 tonnes of cargo per annum with about 250 cargo vessel movements. The unprecedented investment through nuclear new build could lead to an unsustainable impact on local employment - May

36 The Port offers rail freight services via its main line connection and possesses an internal rail network serving the principal quayside areas. Through the Britain s Energy Coast initiative the Port of Workington has recently secured an expansion investment of 4m from Nuclear Management Partners, alongside 1.7m from the NDA to create a commercial container handling facility and associated infrastructure. This will create 10 additional jobs and is expected to lever additional 13m private sector investment. Potential as a rail logistics hub The Port of Workington has capacity for up to two trains per day depending on loading and unloading times and has been identified as a potential location for the importation and stockpiling of materials destined for the construction of the new build construction materials. Currently the sidings of the port can accommodate trains of up to 400m in length and has the potential for stockpile storage areas. Potential to increase traffic levels up to 440,000 tonnes by 2018/19 and potentially as much as 1.2 m tonnes beyond Due to the many different organisations operating out of the Port of Barrow it is difficult to determine true staff numbers. The potential passenger trains per day has been given as 1-2 based upon estimated demand for the Port of Workington this increase in passenger trains will be addressed through the new passenger franchise. Because of the connection and positioning of the Port of Workington with the Cumbrian Coast it is assumed it will play a key role in the delivery and stockpiling of important materials for upcoming developments, Cumbria County Council along with the Strategic Rail Group have developed a modernisation plan of the port of Workington with much improved access from both the North and South of the county and increasing the capacity of the port to potentially handle up to 5 trains per day. With the estimated tonnage that could potentially move through the PoW could potentially easily exceed 1.2 Million tonnes per year by 2020 depending on 3 major schemes (where volumes have been identified) commencing which would be the Moorside New Build, Drigg Vault 8 Capping and Vault 10 Construction, West Cumbrian Mining Limited. 36 The unprecedented investment through nuclear new build could lead to an unsustainable impact on local employment - May 2015

37 Port of Barrow (PoB) The Port of Barrow is an enclosed dock system within Barrow-in-Furness. It is currently owned and operated by Associated British Port Holdings. Docks include: Buccleuch Dock, Cavendish Dock, Devonshire Dock and Ramsden Dock. The port is situated on the British Energy Coast and has a direct connection to the national rail network. It is important to understand that large areas within the port estate have been identified and earmarked for extensive development for BAE systems. Although this development affects the potential available storage capacity at Barrow it will not affect the water frontage capabilities. The Port of Barrow has a large capacity for storage and handles around 3.5 million tonnes per annum. The unprecedented investment through nuclear new build could lead to an unsustainable impact on local employment - May

38 Baseline Services: Cumbrian Coast Current passenger and freight usage of Cumbrian Coast line Identifies achievability - Subject to Franchise change - Likely ERTMS delay No changes to track, signalling and physical infrastructure Potential as a rail logistics hub The PoB has capacity for up to two trains per day depending on loading and unloading times and can be used for the delivery and stockpiling of construction materials from this location these resources can be easily and efficiently transported via rail to their required destinations. The port will be used in combination with the Port of Barrow as a delivery mechanism for effective stockpiling and distribution of materials. 38 The unprecedented investment through nuclear new build could lead to an unsustainable impact on local employment - May 2015

39 Section Available Paths Freight Services (Return Trains Per Day) Passenger Services (Return Trains Per DaY) Used Capacity Section 1: Carnforth to Barrow Section 2: Barrow to Sellafield Section 3: Sellafield to Whitehaven Section 4: Whitehaven to Workington Section 5: Workington to Carlisle % % % % % Cumbrian Coast Rail Infrastructure The Cumbrian Coast Rail Infrastructure carries both freight and passenger traffic and currently supports up to 48 rail paths per day with the ability to provide up to an additional growth of 6 paths and feeds into the West Coast Main Line (WCML) which is the rail route between London and Glasgow and is a distance of 399 miles. The route also links Birmingham, Liverpool and Manchester. The following diagram demonstrates the baseline capacity on the Cumbrian Rail Network based on passenger and freight services demand up to The unprecedented investment through nuclear new build could lead to an unsustainable impact on local employment - May

40 Baseline Services + Moorside New Build New franchise scope opens Cumbrian Coast line in its entierty to a 7 day operation This allows for increased capacity on the line New build demand can be delivered but it is very close to line capacity No changes to track, signalling and physical infrastructure Recommend small infrastructure changes to reduce risk 40 The unprecedented investment through nuclear new build could lead to an unsustainable impact on local employment - May 2015

41 In the past Cumbria has lacked in the necessary investment in transport infrastructure and as such is found insufficient in terms of capacity and services that suit the needs of the surrounding population. The proposed construction of the new reactors at Sellafield, the UK s largest and most complex nuclear site will significally impact on an already straining local transport network. The diagram shows that existing demand on the infrastructure is almost at capacity within the area and opportunities to increase usage for either freight or passengers is limited. The next diagram demonstrates capacity on the Cumbrian Coast Rail Network from 2017 when the new Franchise scope increases from 6 days to 7 day operation which increases capacity and the Moorside construction phase begins. The graph was developed using the data provided to the Cumbria Rail Strategy Group which is represented by Direct Rail Services, Cumbria County Council, Network Rail, Northern Rail Limited, NuGen, Sellafield Ltd, LLWR, National Grid, West Cumbria Mining, Section Available Paths Freight Services (Return Trains Per Day) Passenger Services (Return Trains Per DaY) Used Capacity Section 1: Carnforth to Barrow Section 2: Barrow to Sellafield Section 3: Sellafield to Whitehaven Section 4: Whitehaven to Workington Section 5: Workington to Carlisle % % % % % The unprecedented investment through nuclear new build could lead to an unsustainable impact on local employment - May

42 Baseline Services + NuGen Moorside + Drigg + National Grid + West Cumbria Mining No changes to track, signalling and physical infrastructure Recommended infrastructure changes to increase capacity of 115%+ 42 The unprecedented investment through nuclear new build could lead to an unsustainable impact on local employment - May 2015

43 BAE Systems, United Utilities and Tidal Lagoon, all parties with a significant interest in the Cumbrian Coast Rail Infrastructure capability. It is clear that the construction of the nuclear new build severely stretches increased capacity and without even minor infrastructure changes there are risks to the successful delivery of the project. Whilst the study concentrates on the Nuclear New Build there are other significant projects under development that must be considered as part of the infrastructure review. To demonstrate the increased demand on the rail infrastructure the following table has been developed using a mixture of published rail requirements and based on a 1500 Tonne capacity Train along with estimated volume forecast. What is clear that if all the projects under development within existing timescales the Cumbrian Rail Capacity will be unable to meet capacity demands. Section Available Paths Freight Services (Return Trains Per Day) Passenger Services (Return Trains Per DaY) Used Capacity Section 1: Carnforth to Barrow Section 2: Barrow to Sellafield Section 3: Sellafield to Whitehaven Section 4: Whitehaven to Workington Section 5: Workington to Carlisle % % % % % The unprecedented investment through nuclear new build could lead to an unsustainable impact on local employment - May

44 Overview of Potential Projects and Demand Profile The table below demonstrates the various Cumbrian Coast projects and proposed start dates and clearly demonstrates the demand on capacity and employment growth. The projects are significant in duration providing sustainable economic benefits however it also demonstrates the risk in projects overlapping and requiring the same resource and capacity. Project Construction Dates Project Duration No of Years Potential Daily Rail Requirements Freight Passenger Employment Opportunities Construction Phase Employment Opportunities Operation Phase NuGen Moorside Drigg Vault 8 Sellafield Ltd. *Freight National Grid West Cumbria Mining BAE Systems Ltd x 3** x 2 ** The unprecedented investment through nuclear new build could lead to an unsustainable impact on local employment - May 2015

45 Capacity Enhancements There are a number of options that can be used to improve capacity in the Cumbrian Coast to accommodate the potential opportunities. ERTMS European Rail Traffic Management System (ERTMS) which is a European train control system that will be introduced onto the UK rail network over the next 30 years. ERTMS principles of operation is to have a variable headways dependent upon the braking characteristics of each train (Length x Weight x Speed) to maximise the amount of trains capable of travelling over the route at any time. Basically this is improved technology has the potential to increase capacity by up to 3 trains per hour in each direction on existing infrastructure. The Cumbrian Coast route had been earmarked for ERTMS fitment in 2019 as part of Network Rails CP5 Enhancements Delivery Plan however, the project is running behind schedule and now estimated for fitment in 2026/27. Network Rails reliance on the ERTMS fitment programme in 2019 would have addressed the life expired and fragile state of the Cumbrian Coast line due to an extended period of no investment. The Strategic Rail Group are attempting to engage with Network Rail to see how best the desperately needed modernisation can still be achieved without the implementation of ERTMS in 2019 which as demonstrated in the capacity graphs above could jeopardise delivery without a conventional signaling and track upgrade programme. The unprecedented investment through nuclear new build could lead to an unsustainable impact on local employment - May

46 Alternatives to ERTMS There are a number of upgrade solutions that could improve the Cumbrian Coast Capacity should the ERTMS programme fall behind delivery timescales. These include: Signal upgrades Remove the need for token exchanges at key points Increase line opening times Introduce additional passing loops The upgrades identified have been estimated by the Cumbria Strategic Rail Group to cost circa 54 Million and potentially take up to 2.5 years to complete however, this would be a huge challenge that would require collaborative effort and multi-party working to realise these timescales. Upgrades would potentially last for up to 20 years and achieve similar capacity increases that would have been realised with the fitment of ERTMS however there is currently no funding route in place to support interim upgrades at this time. Risks Funding capacity enhancements is a clear and critical risk to the suitability of the transport infrastructure. Without adequate capacity to accommodate the prospective new enterprises, Cumbria could miss out on long term investment and job creation which would reduce the areas opportunity for economic growth. Investors could use the risk of project delivery to consider alternative sites thereby significantly impacting economic growth in the area and Cumbria once again experience the Boom and Bust from the previous Thorpe construction or worse cripple the area by swamping an inadequate infrastructure causing serious detriment to project delivery and the surrounding communities. 46 The unprecedented investment through nuclear new build could lead to an unsustainable impact on local employment - May 2015

47 Opportunities Having a transport infrastructure suitable to support major investment opportunities provides long term sustainable growth and socio economics. Improved capacity and better connectivity between cities and nations boosts trade, and creates growth and prosperity. It will potentially continue to attract investment for new business reducing the impact of the bust phase when the Nuclear New Build construction is complete. Can encourage where people live and work injecting new skills and innovation into the area. Affect distribution of growth Provide long term employment opportunities. The unprecedented investment through nuclear new build could lead to an unsustainable impact on local employment - May

48 Conclusion - Infrastructure Transport infrastructure is a major factor in the successful economic growth and sustainability of a community. With the unprecedented investment in the area for the Nuclear New Build project at Moorside and other potential opportunities, Cumbria s transport infrastructure will see significant increase in demand. The two main ports in Workington and Barrow are rail connected and storage space for construction materials have been identified. With investment, enhancements could be carried out to improve rail handling facilities. The Cumbrian Coast Rail infrastructure has been under invested over the years and the Network Rail ERTMS project that would increase capacity is under threat of being delayed beyond the peak construction demands thereby risking successful delivery. Interim improvements could be carried out but currently a clear funding route has not been identified. An overview of the major projects demonstrates the need to ensure capacity is available as long term employment opportunities could be lost or at threat. The rail and port infrastructure enhancements will create more jobs and the improvements will help attract and secure sustainable economic growth in the area. Technical rail transport skill shortages nationally have encouraged the recruitment of both experienced and Trainee Traincrew to be employed locally in anticipation for some of these new projects. The overall impact of Moorside alone would create up to 55 new jobs on both rail transport and ground support staff. 48 The unprecedented investment through nuclear new build could lead to an unsustainable impact on local employment - May 2015

49 Summary Based on the clear opportunities that have been identified should Cumbria be able to provide a robust transport infrastructure, it is recommended that the members of the Cumbrian Rail Strategy Group work together to secure a rail transport delivery plan for the Cumbrian Coast to ensure programme deliverables. It is strongly recommended that a funding route be developed with a long term view to sustainable economic growth in the area by engaging members of the Cumbrian Rail Strategy Group for local and national recognition and support. The unprecedented investment through nuclear new build could lead to an unsustainable impact on local employment - May

50 50 Title?? Story Homes, May 2015

51 Title?? Story Homes, May 2015 Findings Housing 51

52 Findings Housing Both Copeland Borough Council and Allerdale Borough Council have recently adopted local plans in place which set a framework for ensuring an appropriate level and mix of housing development occurs in the right place and at the right time between now and 2028/2029 to meet the needs of the population in the Boroughs and to accommodate economic migrants both temporary and permanent as a result of the market uplift which will occur during the construction and operational phase of the nuclear new build project at Moorside. The nuclear industry is an important contributor to the West Cumbrian economy providing for 37% of West Cumbria s GVA and accounting for 22% of jobs; this is set to rise on the back of the Moorside project. Copeland and Allerdale Borough Council s Planning Framework The Copeland Local Plan, Core Strategy and Development Management Policies DPD (adopted in December 2013) and the Allerdale Local Plan (Part 1) Strategic and Development Management Policies (adopted in July 2014) set out how the two Council s intend to deliver their housing requirements (outside of the Lake District National Park) in the 15 year plan periods to 2028 and 2029 respectively. Specific housing sites to deliver aspirational housing targets of 4,150 units in Copeland and 5,471 units in Allerdale will be identified in next stage of their local plans called the Site Allocations DPD. In Copeland this document is currently at preferred options stage and already identifies a range of potential sites. The next draft of this plan will be out at the end of In Allerdale this document is at an earlier stage, having completed an initial period of consultation with its next stage being preferred options. Both Councils seek to focus development in and around their key towns, local centres and villages in a hierarchy alongside objectives to secure an appropriate balance of executive, general market and affordable housing. For Copeland this means focusing housing in Whitehaven (principal town) (45%), Egremont (10%), Cleator Moor (10%), Millom (10%) and Others (25%). For Allerdale this means focusing housing in Workington (principal town) (35%), Maryport (12%), Cockermouth (10%), Wigton (10%), Aspatria (4%), Silloth (3%) and Others (26%). 52 The unprecedented investment through nuclear new build could lead to an unsustainable impact on local employment - May 2015

53 Copeland s housing trajectory acknowledges the need to increase housing provision to meet population demands by requiring a delivery rate of 230 dwellings per year to It then rises to 300 dwellings per year to 2028 for market uplift resulting from nuclear new build and the planning for success scenario. By comparison Allerdale have assumed a flat rate of 304 dwellings per year with no identified fluctuations to accommodate workforce migration associated with Moorside. Copeland s population is expected to grow by 5,000 in the next 25 years from its current population of 69,500. Even without economic growth the expectation is for about 50% of this increase to occur on the back of falling household size, people living longer and rising expectations for better quality housing. The general trend will also see fewer younger people and an increasing older population. This demographic trend is also mirrored in Allerdale. Figure 5.1 below shows illustrates this trajectory for Copeland. The unprecedented investment through nuclear new build could lead to an unsustainable impact on local employment - May

54 Conclusion Both Councils have prepared for aspirational housing growth and have already embedded a planning policy framework to facilitate this. Population growth and household changes coupled with population surges expected on the back of the construction and operational phase of the Moorside project will drive the need for more housing. The challenge facing both Council s will be their ability to sustain a younger and economically active population who continue to contribute to the local economy. Temporary accommodation will be required for a substantial number of migrant workers associated with the construction phase of the Moorside project. It is Copeland s preference for this accommodation to ideally be sited within or as close to its four main towns with appropriate public transport links or park and ride services providing transport for workers to and from site. 54 The unprecedented investment through nuclear new build could lead to an unsustainable impact on local employment - May 2015

55 The unprecedented investment through nuclear new build could lead to an unsustainable impact on local employment - May

56 56 Title?? Story Homes, May 2015

57 Title?? Story Homes, May 2015 Findings Community 57

58 Findings Community As part of the research and information gathering it was important to ascertain and understand the views of the community. The methodology chosen was a short survey to gain an insight into the hopes and fears of those communities that will be affected both directly and indirectly by nuclear new build. The questions were designed to ask what the community were interested in and what is important to them. A total of 250 surveys were distributed and 100 completed returns were received. Of the returned surveys, 55% were from females and 45% were males. The age profile of the respondents is as follows: % % % % % 65+ 3% The survey asked the following questions: What are your hopes for the future of the area with the investment from nuclear new build? What are your fears for the future of the area with the investment from nuclear new build? What do you believe creates a sustainable community environment for the future of Cumbria? What do you want for Cumbria post nuclear new build construction phase? What would entice you to stay and work in the area or return to area? The survey was conducted across a sample set of 100 people of different gender and age groups, the age brackets were aligned to the demographics noted in the office of statistics that were referenced as part of the business section of the report. Whilst analysing the data it became apparent that there were some key themes that communities would like to see as a result of nuclear new build. A breakdown of the geographical location of the respondents can be found in Appendix C. 58 The unprecedented investment through nuclear new build could lead to an unsustainable impact on local employment - May 2015

59 The unprecedented investment through nuclear new build could lead to an unsustainable impact on local employment - May

60 60 Title?? Story Homes, May 2015

61 Title?? Story Homes, May 2015 Analysis 61

62 Analysis This section of the report aims to highlight the key findings and what this means in the context of this report. (The full data set is shown in Appendix C for information.) Question 1 As shown in the pie chart above three elements make up 57% of the responses, Increased jobs Improved infrastructure New Business Why is this important to the community? - The community see nuclear new build as an opportunity to create a better future for themselves and their families. All of these three factors combined help to create a sustainable future for the area beyond the boom phase of nuclear new build. 62 The unprecedented investment through nuclear new build could lead to an unsustainable impact on local employment - May 2015

63 Question 2 As shown in question 2, people are concerned that the area will not benefit from nuclear new build in terms of economic benefits. Many people have experience of previous large construction projects in the area and what this means when there is not the skill set available in the locally and migrant workers have to be brought in to supplement the workforce. The travelling effect can in most cases only have a beneficial economic impact to a small area of business as the majority of earnings are taken home. In contrast to question 1 where Infrastructure is a hope for nuclear new build it is now also shown as a fear, Why is that? It is clear to all that live within the area that our infrastructure network is not capable of coping with a booming industry area. There is an outdated rail network and the road networks into the County are oversubscribed and not designed to support the high volumes of traffic that come with modern travel. Neither are they aligned to a sustained increase in industrial traffic. The unprecedented investment through nuclear new build could lead to an unsustainable impact on local employment - May

64 Question 3 In question 3 the aim was to understand from a community viewpoint what they believe creates a sustainable community environment. The data helps to understand what locals need in the long term to build on their communities. It is about building a future beyond nuclear new build with long term security for jobs and investment in the local people. 64 The unprecedented investment through nuclear new build could lead to an unsustainable impact on local employment - May 2015

65 Questions 4 & 5 / Conclusion As we have seen throughout the analysis of all of the data there are key themes that have become wholly apparent as you review the results. Questions 4 & 5 are another example of this. The key issues that are of concern for the community are; Infrastructure A future beyond Nuclear new build (sustained development) In order to fully understand what the community want for the future of the area then they must be engaged. There is currently a stakeholder engagement plan with NuGen which is due to start in early may but as we have seen in our analysis creating a sustainable future for the area is ensuring we are able to continue on the same path of growth beyond the construction phase of the Nuclear new build and this means community engagement on the medium and long term issues. Nuclear new build will not solve the issues of the area without a coordinated approach to all of the aspects and this must include the medium and long term requirements. There are currently a number of focus groups & businesses that are working to achieve a goal, but who is looking to ensure this is used as an opportunity to create a sustainable Cumbria that is able to compete with the rest of the UK? The unprecedented investment through nuclear new build could lead to an unsustainable impact on local employment - May

66 66 Title?? Story Homes, May 2015

67 Title?? Story Homes, May 2015 Conclusions & Recommendations 67

68 Conclusions The proposed investment in Cumbria through the siting and building of new nuclear power stations provide a unique opportunity for the area to create a strong local economy. The local residents are generally supportive of the nuclear new build proposed and are looking for a long term sustainable investment in their localities and communities. In terms of employment the community are looking for this new investment to either create or support jobs that are as robust as possible and provide value to the local economy. In a rural area like West Cumbria, this is particularly important. The main fear that the community expresses is that nothing will change and that there will be no long term sustainable investment in the area, particularly around infrastructure. They fear that without this the area will suffer and not reap any benefit from the investment. It is clear that a number of organisations are already well aware of and prepared for the impact of the proposed investment. There is a clear awareness and understanding of the skills needed to fill the jobs required for this new investment. There is also an awareness of the shortage of available workforce in the local area. This concludes that a migrant workforce will be necessary at least in the short term, and that the area should now focus on the employment skills required for the back end of the project when the initial peak period is over. As there is a limited supply of labour in Cumbria, there is the potential that a number of organisations could suffer from the transfer of their skilled staff to the nuclear sector, particularly as the wages rates are likely to be significantly higher. This could result in some smaller local firms being priced out of the markets and place further reliance in the area on the nuclear sector. To avoid this issue, it is essential that all local employers and interested parties work together to ensure that they do not put each other at risk. Cumbria is already a diverse energy generator and there is a real opportunity here to ensure that it becomes the place to provide an energy focussed skilled labour market. In terms of infrastructure, transport is a major factor in the successful economic growth and sustainability of a community. Cumbria s transport infrastructure will see a significant increase in demand from the proposed nuclear new build, together with the other opportunities in the area. There has been significant under investment over the years in the Cumbrian coast rail infrastructure. Network Rails ERTMS have a project that would increase capacity, but there is a significant risk that this could be further delayed beyond the peak construction phase, which would have significant impacts. 68 The unprecedented investment through nuclear new build could lead to an unsustainable impact on local employment - May 2015

69 An overview of the major projects identified in the Transport section of this report, demonstrates the need to ensure capacity is available as long term employment opportunities could be threatened or lost. The rail and port infrastructure enhancements will create more jobs and the improvements will help attract and secure sustainable economic growth in the area. Interim improvements could be carried out but currently a clear funding route has not been identified. The clear risk to the Cumbrian Community is for a funding route not to be identified and infrastructure upgrades not being carried out which could detract companies from choosing Cumbria to invest and develop new businesses. In terms of housing requirements, the conclusion is that both of the local councils, Allerdale BC and Copeland BC are prepared for the impact of the proposed nuclear new build and have identified aspirational plans to identify the growth in the housing needs of the area for the next 15 years. There are real issues around social cohesion and the impact on the local residents of this decision. In summary, Cumbria has a unique opportunity to develop a strong economy given the increased investment provided by New Build, but only by looking beyond new build can this become sustainable. The local population have a heavy dependence on the big industry in the area and it would seem that this is stifling creativity and the desire to create new enterprise in the area. Funding and support has to be given to development of an environment that provides education and confidence to develop a culture that is willing to take risks and looks outward. By investing in our own enterprise, Cumbria will be well placed to welcome the opportunities that these major infrastructure projects bring. Whilst there is an acknowledgement that a migrant workforce will be required, and therefore a need for temporary accommodation to house these workers, there is opposing pressure as to whether this accommodation will be onsite or offsite of the new build. The unprecedented investment through nuclear new build could lead to an unsustainable impact on local employment - May

70 Recommendations This report has reviewed how the unprecedented investment through the proposed investment in the nuclear new build sites in Cumbria will impact the local economy and employment. Our research has indicated that the right conditions for doing business must be in place to take advantage of the opportunities from this investment. From our research it appears that there are many organisations aware of the relevant threats and opportunities but these are very inward looking. In order to ensure that the community are fully engaged in the success of this project it is essential that this view is changed so that it is outward looking. No one organisation is currently looking at the view from the community point of view. Innovation drives the economy, and this is particularly relevant after a period of boom so that the bust is mitigated. In order to encourage innovation and increase the risk appetite the following are recommendations are put forward:- Key business support organisations create a financial fund that would be used to encourage people to think differently and encourage entrepreneurial business startups. The organisations would have to be prepared to lose this money in order to create the cultural change. The route for local contractors into the supply chain is made simple, straight forward and is easy to access Any temporary accommodation to house the migrant workforce is sited in the most sustainable locations close to or within existing settlements Members of the Cumbrian Rail Strategy group work together to secure funding and a delivery plan to increase the capacity of the Cumbrian Coast rail line. 70 The unprecedented investment through nuclear new build could lead to an unsustainable impact on local employment - May 2015

71 The unprecedented investment through nuclear new build could lead to an unsustainable impact on local employment - May

72 72 Title?? Story Homes, May 2015

73 Title?? Story Homes, May 2015 Appendix A 73

74

75

76 74 Title?? Story Homes, May 2015

77 Title?? Story Homes, May 2015 Appendix B 75

78 Nuclear new build and the effect on the Community The unprecedented investment through Nuclear new build could lead to an unsustainable impact on local employment How do we as a community become engaged and invested in its success? Gender (please tick) Age Male Female Resident of: What are your hopes for the future of the area with the investment from Nuclear new build? What are your fears for the future of the area with the investment from Nuclear new build? What do you believe creates a sustainable community environment for the future of Cumbria? What do you want for Cumbria s post Nuclear new build construction phase? What would entice you to stay and work in the area or return to the area? Prioritise these in terms of benefit to the community? (1 being highest) Education & school facilities Affordable housing Executive housing Sports and recreation facilities Other Hotels Entertainment and social Transport network Crime Prevention

79

80 76 Title?? Story Homes, May 2015

81 Title?? Story Homes, May 2015 Appendix C 77

82 Participant Gender Male 45% Female 55%

83 Participant Age Group 65+ 3% % % % % %

84 Mealsgate 1% Great broughton 1% Cleator moor 3% St bees 3% Millom 1% Participant Location Frizington 4% Lamplugh 1% Bothel 1% Beckermet 1% Cockermouth 9% Egremont 1% Barrow in Furness 4% Wilton 1% Other 4% Workington 26% Cumbria 1% Carlisle 3% Lancashire 1% Allerdale 4% Irton 1% Holmrook 1% Eskdale 1% Whitehaven 9% Rydal 1% Maryport 10%

85 Continual growth for energy (wind & tidal) 2% A future beyond new build 4% Community benefit 2% What are your hopes for the future of the area with the investment from Nuclear new build? Improved amenities 1% Airport 1% Improved economy 6% Technological leaders 1% Increased jobs 24% Improved shopping 1% Increase people into area 1% Hospital services improved 4% Community benefit in deprived area 1% development of young 2% School investment 6% Improved infrastructure 20% Secure employment 3% Local employment 4% NO new build 1% Tourism 2% New businesses 13% Improved Housing 2%

86 What are your fears for the future of the area with the investment from Nuclear new build? Hospital unable to cope 2% Skills shortages drive rate chase 8% Infrastructure issues 14% Disruption to villages 1% Protestors 1% Nuclear accident 7% unsustainable development 4% Environmental impact 12% Nuclear dependency 12% BOOM BUST 6% Earnings wont stay in area 18% Blights on landscape(pylons) 1% Migrant workers 14%

87 What do you believe creates a sustainable community environment for the future of Cumbria? Minimal pollution & emissions 1% A future for the young 2% Upskilling the young 1% Renewable energy 2% Employment diversity 1% Education options 9% A good high street 1% Low Crime 1% Investment in amenities 9% Communication improvements 5% Vision 5% Investment in people and communities 14% Sustained investment 8% Future projects/businesses 12% Secure jobs 12% Improved infrastructure 8% Adequate hospital 5% Housing - range 3% Opportunity's for less than 5 GCSE's 1%

88 What do you want for Cumbria post Nuclear new build construction phase? Improved education/ schools 2% New people and families in Cumbria 5% World leader recognised profile 4% Increased tourism 2% Minimal disruption 1% Community engagement 1% Secure energy supplies 3% Career opportunity's 2% Removal of community divides (financial) 4% Stable hospital services 3% No impact on environment 2% Skilled Businesses 5% Jobs post boom 3% Consideration of the community 2% Cumbria as a base for UK 4% Low impact on area 1% Improved infrastructure 19% Sustained development 16% Secure employment 17% Investment in other technologies 2%

89 Change of cultural view that NW is owed a living 1% What would entice you to stay and work in the area or return to the area? Well paid work 3% Sense of community 2% Community investment 8% Improved living standards 1% Stable jobs 20% Jobs for the next generation 3% Cultural facilities 5% Sustainable employment opportunities 4% Economical development 5% Improved infrastructure 17% Improved tourism 1% Better spread of wealth 1% Career development opportunities Safe environment 1% 2% University provision 1% Up to date facilities 1% Affordable housing out of town 8% Improved health services 3% Improved education facilities 1% Minimal impact from new build 3% Good amenities 11% Airport 1% Improved internet links 1%

90 78 Title?? Story Homes, May 2015

91 Title?? Story Homes, May 2015 Appendix D 79

92 Centre for Leadership - Leader to Leader Consultancy Challenge 23 April 2015 Present : Adrian Davis-Johnston National Nuclear Laboratory Charles Holmes Allerdale Borough Council Background Meeting held to gather research towards the Centre for Leadership Leader to Leader Consultancy Challenge. The consultancy challenge problem statement is, The unprecedented investment through Nuclear New Build could lead to an unsustainable impact on Local Employment. The meeting was suggested by John Porter from Britain s Energy Coast in particular relation to the Business and Enterprise chapter of the report. Note of Meeting Charles provided an outline of the consultancy challenge and problem statement indicating that the cohort had selected a number of people to assist in the group in researching and addressing the issues raised by the problem statement. Adrian provided a brief overview of the Innovus initiative which aims to assist Cumbrian businesses in developing new technologies and innovations. To date the initiative has supported 38 businesses with 883,000 of grant support levering in 1.6m of private sector finance. The initiative is funded by the Regional Growth Fund and Britain s Energy Coast. Charles pointed out that some of the research undertaken to date indicated that West Cumbria suffers from lower levels of business start-up than the rest of the UK and generally has a less enterprising culture than other areas and asked Adrian why he thought that this was the case. Adrian said that it was probably in relation to West Cumbria having a small number of large employers; over a long period of time and that there was probably now an intergenerational problem with a lack of ambition and aspiration in many parts of West Cumbria. Adrian said that he particularly noticed this in Copeland rather than Allerdale, however it was an issue to be addressed across the whole of West Cumbria. Adrian mentioned Sellafield in particular and said that there are too many people in the area that think it s, easy to get through life at Sellafield. Adrian said that the Innovus Initiative and other initiatives e.g. Youth Enterprise are good starting points to try and encourage people to be more entrepreneurial and look to self-employment as a realistic way in which to engage in society and make a living.