Predicting and Assessing Natural Capital and Ecosystem Services (PANCES) (FY )

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1 社会科学系の写真 The Environment Research and Technology Development Fund (ERTDF) Strategic R&D Category Ministry of the Environment, Japan Predicting and Assessing and Services (PANCES) (FY ) P.I.: Prof. Kazuhiko Takeuchi Integrated Research System for Sustainability Science (IR3S), The University of Tokyo Senior Visiting Professor, United Nations University 1 International Context The Intergovernmental Platform on Biodiversity and Services (IPBES) Provides regular updates on the scientific status and trend of biodiversity and ecosystem services, and their relationship with human wellbeing, Thereby supporting several multilateral agreements and other policy processes. CBD Aichi Biodiversity Targets (by 2020) SATOYAMA Initiative (from 2010) National Biodiversity Strategy UNFCCC IPCC Future Earth IPBES 1, Jan 2013 [Agenda] Scientific assessment and policymaking support from the more transdisciplinary and integrated perspective Strengthen science policy interface (Priority: Scientific assessments and knowledge foundation by collecting credible indigenous and local knowledge (ILK). Implement scientific assessments on biodiversity and ecosystem services at and across subregional, regional and global levels. (Asia Pacific regional assessments) Address methodological issues (Priority: Study on tools and methodologies for scenario analysis and modelling of biodiversity and ecosystem services) Communicate and evaluate platform activities, deliverables and findings. 2

2 Research Objectives and Related Activities Objectives Develop an integrated assessment model of social ecological systems to predict and assess natural and socio economic values of natural capital and ecosystem services under different future scenarios of socio economic conditions and policy options; Design a new conceptual framework to promote multilevel governance of natural capital to maintain and improve inclusive wellbeing ; Demonstrate the integrated assessment model at both national and local scales in Japan, and examine effectiveness and applicability to other areas in Japan and beyond. Past related activities 3 Framework of the PANCES Project Crises that biodiversity and ecosystem services are confronting in Japan Crisis 1: Overuse Crisis 2: Underuse Crisis 3: Invasive spp. Crisis 4: Global changes Theme 1. Development of an integrated model of social ecological systems and scenario analysis < Assessment and projection of natural values from ecosystem services> Theme 2. Terrestrial ESs Provisioning Assessment and projection of socio economic values of ESs Regulating Theme 4. Theme 3. Marine ESs Cultural Multilevel governance of natural capital and inclusive wellbeing Drivers (direct & indirect) <Social Changes> Depopulation Land use change Underuse Science and Technology Trade, etc. <Environmental Changes> Climate change Ocean acidification Natural disasters, etc. Contribution to sustainable development and the inclusive wellbeing based on the mid long term assessment and projection Feasibility study of other Asian areas (Theme 1) 4

3 Framework of PANCES and Models Future (sub theme 1 1) JSSA(2012) Intermediate parameters Key Driving Forces Economic Science, Technology Social institutions Food demand International trade, etc. Basic Framework (sub theme 1 2) Demography & Industry Concentrated or distributed Labor population by sector Land Use Urban, green space, farm land, grassland, woodland, waterbody, coastal port Natural Capital Forest stock, fishery stock Linking Models for Assessing Functions/Services and HWB (theme 1~4) Terrestrial Tree traits Crop variety Adaptation Sensitivity distribution to climate capacity changes Climate Changes & Ocean Acidification Adaptation Sensitivity distribution to climate capacity changes Marine Primary, secondary production capacity Terrestrial Services Potential capacity, actual human use River basin interactions Nutrients, sediments, creatures Potential capacity, actual human use Marine Services Natural Values Local food culture, Ocean Health Index Inclusive Wellbeing Socio Economic Values Shadow value, Natural capital accounting Localized Inclusive wealth index Policy Options / Multi level Governance (governance indicators, innovative funding mechanism) 5 Example of modeling exercises Anthropogenic Assets Demographic and Industrial Structures Land Use Land Use Populations and labor force in urban, sub urban, rural area Changes in Direct/Indirect Drivers Population distribution, Industrial structures Stochastic predictions Land cover and Land use: Urban, Agricultural land (paddy, crops and fruit farm), Bamboo, Managed forest, Natural forest, Grassland, Water surface (river, pond), harbor etc. Stock assessment on Forestry, Agriculture, Fishery (see weed bed, coral reef, tideland etc.) Changes in Land use and Land covers Spatial predictions Remote sensing data Changes in Natural capital stock (Forest, Agriculture, Marine resources), Statistics and Inventories Census of Agriculture and Forestry National Land Numerical Information (Future prospects) Hashimoto (2016) Haga et al. (2016) Modelling ESs in Theme2 (Terrestrial) 3(Marine), Scio economic valuations in Theme4 6

4 SI 農地系森林系全体相関係数 SI2008 洪水緩和 m3 水源涵養 m3 浸食防止 m3 洪水緩和 m3 水源涵養 m3 浸食防止 m3 洪水緩和 m3 水源涵養 m3 浸食防止 m3 SI2008 Pearson の相関係数 洪水緩和 m3 Pearson の相関係数 水源涵養 m3 Pearson の相関係数 浸食防止 m3 Pearson の相関係数 洪水緩和 m3 Pearson の相関係数 水源涵養 m3 Pearson の相関係数 浸食防止 m3 Pearson の相関係数 洪水緩和 m3 Pearson の相関係数 水源涵養 m3 Pearson の相関係数 浸食防止 m3 Pearson の相関係数 Strengthen science policy interface through the use and management of information platform Outputs of the Project Integrated Information Platform s Data collection and development Prediction and assessment through future scenarios and an integrated model Governance indicators Sharing analytical results Registering collected data Research support such as cloud based user management, meta data management, use control and communication between users Model assessment results Scenario analysis results 全体森林系農地系 SI Displaying thematic maps and figures Formulation of national or local BD strategies Use for education, decision making and conservation activities Policy development e.g.) conservation project Env. education Theme 1 Theme 4 Theme 2 Theme 3 Retrieving and using collected data Socio economic data Geo ecological data Existing data Thematic map Graph drawing systems (by scenario and policy) CSR activities, natural capital mngt External databases 7 Interaction of and Economy Underuse of (Crisis 2) Social and human capital degradations due to shrinkage of economic activities Sound Use of Overuse of (Crisis 1) Natural capital degradation due to expansion of economic activities GDP Natural capital is not taken into account Input from s (Goods and services, ESs and cultural services) Assessment & Prediction Loss Qualitative and quantitative socio economic assessment of natural capital and ecosystem services Theme 2: Terrestrial Natural Capital & ESs Interaction between terrestrial and marine ecosystems (satoyamasatoumi interaction) Assessment & Prediction Theme 3: Marine Natural Capital &ESs Natural capital assessment as stocks Socioeconomic assessment 8

5 Multi level Nested Governance of It is necessary to create mechanisms for collaborative management in order to avoid degradation of natural capital as stock, and to promote sustainable provision of ecosystem services. It is necessary to explore new governance structures, or new commons where various stakes engage in horizontal cooperation. It would be effective to build multi level and nested governance structures that value bottom up activities at the local level while connecting with global networks. Global/ Regional/ National Multi level nested collaborative governance Local UN Nations Aid Int l agencies NGOs Regional communities Governments initiatives (top down) Multi level governance of natural capital Farmers, foresters, fishers Urban residents Co ops Small Local gov t enterprises Universities Local NPOs communities Local collaborations (Bottom up) Multinational companies Mechanism for cooperative management of natural capital based on nested collaboration among different stakes 9 Study Sites & Science Policy Society Interface Study Sites: Japan wide assessment Three major case study sites Hokkaido (Bekanbeushi River Basin) Noto Peninsula & Sado Island Okinawa Islands Japan wide assessment of natural capitals and ecosystem services Science Policy Society Interface: Participatory scenario co design with multistakes Collaboration with local governments, policy makers and practitioners including private sectors Promote multi level governance of natural capital through connecting international initiatives and local actions Noto peninsula Sado island Hokkaido Okinawa 10

6 Progress of Development through Delphi method Base trends: population decline, aging and low economic growth Uncertainties: effective utilization of nature, population distribution Emphasis on the use of natural capital Population concentration Higher food self-sufficiency Eco-tourism and expansion of tourism in domestic countryside Use of ecosystem-based & green infrastructures Increase in the use of renewable energy A Promotion of compact cities Rewilding /greening of underutilized land Centralized heat and energy Prefer domestic products Association oriented (connection based on purposes) B Counter urbanization Decentralized heat and energy Prefer local production and local consumption Decentralized authority (decision making) Community oriented (connection based on places) Population dispersion Inexpensive and diverse choices by increased imports C Extensive use of ICT/AI for improved Dproductivity Conventional infrastructure development Improved efficiency in conventional power generation and energy consumption Utilization of CCS (carbon capture and storage) technology Emphasis on the use of manufactured capital The Expected Outputs and Outcomes [Outputs] Inputs to CBD, IPBES regional and global assessments, Ecologically or Biologically Significant Marine Areas (EBSAs), and ecosystem based climate change adaptation (IPCC). Contributions to national and local biodiversity strategy action plans in Japan. [Outcomes] Promote implementation of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and localization of Inclusive Wealth Index. Collaborate with international global environment research initiatives such as Future Earth. Contribute to the establishment of Green Economy in Asian region through efforts in International SATOYAMA Initiative. Contribute to revitalization of rural economy as Japan s urgent issue through developing new business models and multilevel governance of natural capital. The National Biodiversity Strategy of Japan st Asian Conference on Biocultural Diversity (27 29 Oct. 2016) 12

7 For more information about PANCES Project Website ( 13