SOCIETAL CHANGES AND FOREST TRANSITION:

Transcription

1 SOCIETAL CHANGES AND FOREST TRANSITION: THE OUTLOOK FOR THE ASIA-PACIFIC REGION APFSOS II Dr. C.T.S. Nair Formerly: Chief Economist, Forestry Department, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations

2 BACKGROUND For all of those concerned about deforestation, one key question is when the process will stop, forest will start recovering and when SFM will become widely adopted. Adapting the framework of the Environmental Kuznet s Curve, and drawing on the experience in Europe Sandy Mather described the concept of forest transition. Since then substantial ti work has been done on different aspects of forest transition and a wealth of information available on what is happening to forests over time and space.

3 BACKGROUND While the underlying principle is the same, the pathways of transition are highly context specific and most often extremely complex. With hindsight we are able to assess how transition has taken place; but this may not be able to answer how transition will take place in the future. P tti t th FAO k f t t i l t tl k Putting together FAO s work on forest resource assessment, various long term outlook studies and several other studies by various organizations provide some insight into broad patterns of change.

4 STRUCTURE OF THE PRESENTATION Drivers of change and societal transition. Forest transition in selected countries in the Asia-Pacific. Some key transition issues.

5 DRIVERS OF FOREST TRANSITION Pathways of fforest transition ii are complex and many. Basic issue is how the degree of dependency on land is changing. Factors impacting land dependency: Internal: Operating at the household, local and national levels. External: stemming from outside the system (especially developments outside the country).

6 INTERNAL DRIVERS D Demographic hi ttransition iti Economic transition Income, its distribution and poverty Structural change (changes in the share of different sectors in income and employment) Investment in human capital T h l i l transition: t iti Technological Environmental changes Population numbers and density Urbanization Age structure Migration Changes in productivity, especially agriculture Developments in technologies relating to industries, transportation, energy and information and communication technologies Environmental awareness. Responses to local and national environmental problems/ events.

7 EXTERNAL DRIVERS Globalization International (Multilateral and bilateral)agreements and i conventions Geo-politics Growth in trade and investment Global Gl b l concerns about b t environment i t ((especially i ll climate change, loss of biodiversity International migration and remittances. International land grabbing. Agreements and conventions relating to forests and environment ( For example CBD, UNFCCC, UNCCD, Forest Principles) p assistance Development Competition C titi to t access natural t l resources, (especially energy, minerals, arable land etc.) and markets.

8 SOCIETAL CHANGES The combined impact of the drivers results in societal characteristics, from pre-agrarian to agrarian and later to industrial and post industrial societies Changes in the dependence on land: Early stages of development of agrarian and industrial society involves major inroads into natural capital, including forests. Agrarian society Industrial society Postindustrial society Consumption and resource use increases significantly. Preagrarian In most developing countries the entire spectrum of societies exist and their divergent resource use is a major cause of conflicts.

9 HOW CHANGE MANIFESTS Market driven Policy driven Means of response Key features Markets takes care of the situation through changes in demand, supply and prices. Public policies and related institutions decide what needs to be done especially in the context of failure of markets. Market and policy driven A fine-tuned combination of responses that corrects the deficiencies of markets and policies. Markets and policies (including the array of laws, regulations and institutions) in varying combinations determine the overall state of governance, including how natural resources are managed. Whether h forest transition i will take place or not will be determined by the direct and indirect impacts of markets and policies

10 FOREST TRANSITION: IMPACT OF POLICIES OUTSIDE FOREST SECTOR Forestry remains a sub-ordinate sector in most Asia-Pacific countries. What happens outside forestry will have major impacts deciding the fate of transition to sustainable forest management. Agricultural policies - Almost all deforestation in the past has been largely an outcome of agricultural policies. Even when forest policies have been extremely pro-sfm, they have remained ineffective. Industrial and trade policies: Especially lowering / removal of import tariffs. Energy policies: Especially coal mining, hydel power generation, etc. Policies relating to infrastructure development. The larger problem of governance and the fact that a significant share of g p g g forestry production is in the informal domain.

11 FOREST TRANSITION: SOUTH ASIA High population density and predominantly an agrarian society with a lot of uncertainties t es of transition t to an industrial/ service sector society Country Populat ion density Populati on growth rate GDP per capita (PPP) in USD Forest cover (percen tage) Current state of transition and probable trends. Bangladesh Forest loss is likely to continue. Bhutan Currently forest area is stable, but future is uncertain, largely due to external factors. India Apparent forest transition, will be extremely challenging to sustain. The major problem will be forest degradation. Nepal Localised transition At the aggregate level forest loss will continue. Pakistan Already very low forest cover.; likely to improve, primarily through farm forestry. Sri Lanka Likelihood of improvement

12 FOREST TRANSITION: FOREST RICH SOUTH EAST ASIAN COUNTRIES Low population density and high forest cover : The pressures for economic development e and external demand d will imply low probability for forest transition, excepting for Malaysia Country Populat ion density Populati on growth rate GDP per capita (PPP) in USD Forest cover (percen tage) Current state of transition and probable trends. Cambodia Unlikely to witness any forest transition in the near future. Internal and external pressure on forests will be very high Laos External pressures on forests will be very high h and the compulsions for enhancing investments for economic development Myanmar The situation in Myanmar will be very similar to that of Cambodia and Laos Indonesia Localised transition especially in Java forests in other areas will be under tremendous pressure Malaysia Potential for stability on the forest front. Timor Leste Deforestation will persist

13 FOREST TRANSITION: OTHER SOUTH EAST ASIAN COUNTRIES Countries in the process of transition: sustained transition depends on continued policy support and ensuring the existence of market incentives. Country Populat Populati GDP per Forest Current state t of transition and ion on capita cover probable trends. density growth rate (PPP) in USD (percent age) Philippines Some early signs of transition, especially considering that forest cover has already gone down significantly up to about Thailand Early indications of stability. Has the potential for continued improvement. Vietnam Policy driven transition i which h will require strong policy and institutional support to sustain. Increasing dependence on wood supply from Laos, and Cambodia.

14 FOREST TRANSITION: EAST ASIA All the countries (except Mongolia) have been able to accomplish forest transition and some in an advanced state. Country Populat ion density Populati on growth rate GDP per capita (PPP) in USD Forest cover (percent age) Current state of transition and probable trends. China In the initial phase of transition. Primarily a policy driven transition i and sustaining i this will require strong policy support Japan Accomplished forest transition long ago and forest area will remain stable. Korea Very similar to the situation in Japan. Forest area is expected to remain stable. Mongolia Forest transition is unlikely in the near future, especially due to mining and other infrastructure development.

15 FOREST TRANSITION: PACIFIC COUNTRIES Fiji has the potential to sustain forest transition, but in the case of PNG and Solomon o o islands, the situation will continue to be precarious. Australia a should have accomplished transition, but the statistics suggest a different picture. Countr y Populatio ndensity Populati on growth rate GDP per capita (PPP) in USD Forest cover (percen tage) Current state of transition and probable trends. Fiji Recent assessments indicate relative stability indicating transition. This is likely to persist. Papua New Guinea Solomon Islands High rate of externally driven deforestation and the probability bilit of forest transition is very low The situation is very similar to Papua New Guinea. No chances of forest recovery in the near future Australia , Forest area statistics indicate a continued decline in the extent of forests. Australia should have accomplished forest transition long ago. This is a puzzle to be examined in detail. New Zealand , New Zealand has been able to accomplish forest transition and the area under forests has increased steadily largely due to afforestation.

16 SOME KEY TRANSITION ISSUES Spatial aspects of forest transition. Forest transition and transition to a sustainable society. The enabling political environment for forest transition: Is a top-down approach better than a highly participatory/ bottom up approach? Effectiveness of REDD+ and other interventions in speeding up forest transition. F t f t t iti i i f l ti th d i i Future forest transitions in a scenario of population growth and increasing demand for food, fibre and fuel.

17 SPATIAL ASPECTS OF FOREST TRANSITION On a global scale there is no forest transition and the forest area continues to decline. e. Gains in a few countries are overshadowed by loss in others. Even within a country regaining forests there are areas where forests are decreasing or vice versa (forest-losing countries having areas where forest area is increasing). It is a continuously changing mosaic : Are we able to explain how this mosaic is changing and when we will have some stability globally, nationally and subnationally. Does forest recovery in one country/ region exporting forest loss to other countries/ ti regions?

18 FOREST TRANSITION AND TRANSITION TO SUSTAINABILITY Ideally forest transition should be an indicator of transition to a sustainable society. Substantial ongoing work to assess the ecological foot-print and bio-capacity. Estimation of annual footprint taking into account the use of resources including for absorption of waste and biocapacity taking into account the productivity of different ecosystems.

19 ECOLOGICAL FOOT PRINT AND BIOCAPACITY Australia Japan China Korea Vietnam India

20 ECOLOGICAL FOOT PRINT AND BIOCAPACITY Papua New Guinea Philippines Laos Malaysia Indonesia Bhutan

21 FOREST TRANSITION AND TRANSITION TO SUSTAINABILITY There is little correlation between forest transition and the shift to sustainability. Many countries that have faired well as regards forest transition seems to be doing poorly as regards shifting to sustainability. Often there is a shift from renewables to non-renewables, increasing the carbon emissions. So, the currently observed forest transition in a small number of countries doesn t seems to be a stepping stone to sustainability; it just conceals the real problems of unsustainable development.

22 ENABLING ENVIRONMENT Most forest transitions, especially in Asia, have been primarily policy driven, often adopting a highly top down approach. Does a top-down approach work better than a bottom up approach? There are only a few instances where forest transitions have been largely market driven (especially farmers taking up tree planting in the context of more favourable conditions and driven by profitability considerations or abandoning land when other opportunities for higher income emerges). Both policy driven and market driven transitions have their limitations. How do we develop a appropriate combination of policy and market driven approach to suit the diverse conditions.

23 EFFECTIVENESS OF REDD+ REDD+ is a combination of policy and market interventions, largely relying on carbon markets. Deficiencies both at the REDD+ policy frame work as also on its market front. Most deforestation in the forest rich countries are externally driven. The opportunity cost confronting those responsible for deforestation are far above of what can be paid as compensation under REDD+ REDD+ payment based on global carbon market prices adds another uncertainty.

24 FUTURE FOREST TRNASITIONS World population is projected to increase to about 9.6billion in 2050 from about 7.1 billion in 2013; Projected increase of Asia Pacific s population is by about 800 million. As per FAO s forecasts world cereal production to increase by close to a billion tonnes (from 2068 million tonnes in 2005/2007 to 3009 million ) by This increase is to be achieved through a combination of increase in productivity and expansion of cropped area. Land and water have already become major constraints in agricultural production in Asia. How is this going to impact forest transition in the future? What will be the future of forest transitions i under different scenarios of globalization? How climate change related events will affect forest transition??

25 THANK YOU