Strategic Electrification Assessment: Work Plan

Transcription

1 Strategic Electrification Assessment: Work Plan NEEP Strategic Electrification Advisory Committee March 29, 2017 Asa S. Hopkins, PhD Synapse Energy Economics Philip Kreycik Meister Consultants Group

2 Synapse Energy Economics Founded in 1996 by CEO Bruce Biewald Leader for public interest and government clients in providing rigorous analysis of the electric power sector Staff of 30 includes experts in energy and environmental economics and environmental compliance Project team: Asa, Kenji, Pat, Ariel, and Melissa Meister Consultants Group International Boston-based sustainability consulting firm specializing in next generation solutions to today s most pressing challenges Advises clients in the United States and across the globe on new strategies in fields such as energy, climate, water, and mobility Project team: Neil, Philip, Jeremy, Kathryn, and Will Asa Hopkins 2

3 Project objectives Kick off a regional conversation on strategic electrification Ground that conversation in the best known and current facts Questions we ll address: What is strategic electrification anyway? What are the costs and benefits (and to whom)? What policies or actions are being implemented today? Which hold promise for the future? How does electrification intersect with energy efficiency and renewables as part of a least-cost path to GHG reduction goals? Are there critical first steps we need to take immediately? What do we not know now, but will need to know soon in order to act? Asa Hopkins 3

4 Seven project phases 1. Work plan 2. Data gathering 3. Market barrier and policy landscape assessment 4. Technology and market assessment 5. Grid and consumer impacts 6. Synthesis and timelines 7. Reports and presentations Asa Hopkins 4

5 How the phases flow Fast timeline requires work in parallel Asa Hopkins 5

6 Data gathering Fossil fuel use in the region Explore present and future Initialize the Multi-Sector Emissions Model (M-SEM) Build a business as usual picture Literature review Build from the catalogue NEEP has already assembled Include both economy-wide analyses and technology- or sector-specific work Attach as appendix to the report Asa Hopkins 6

7 Tools ready to go: M-SEM Multi-Sector Emissions Model Seven northeastern states with electric cars and residential heat pumps powered by renewables, coupled with enhanced energy efficiency: Asa Hopkins 7

8 Market barrier and policy landscape assessment Deliverables Summary of existing legislative actions and policies related to strategic electrification of the heating and transportation sectors in the Northeast Map of major market development barriers and description of the impact of current and possible future local, state, and regional policies and programs on overcoming those barriers Literature review and annotated bibliography Drivers Goals Barriers Actions Philip Kreycik 8

9 Market barrier and policy landscape assessment What are the drivers for strategic electrification goals? GHG emissions reductions. Many states and communities in the Northeast have adopted 80 percent reduction by 2050 goals. Economic development goals. Development of markets for electric vehicles, heat pumps, and other electrification technologies has the potential to create jobs and increase investment in the Northeast region. Energy security concerns. Electrification enables broader use of domestic fuels and improves global competitiveness. Resiliency goals. Electrification paired with smarter energy infrastructure can make loads more malleable and provide opportunities for storage. Philip Kreycik 9

10 Market barrier and policy landscape assessment What strategic electrification goals and strategies are emerging in the Northeast and across the United States? Frameworks Buildings Transportation Vermont 2016 Comprehensive Energy Plan CA PUC strategic electrification TREC program in NY NYSERDA RH&C framework APS in MA City heat pump adoption (Boston, Portland, Providence, Somerville, and more) ZEV MOU goals: 3.3M ZEVs by 2025 MA: 300,000 EVs by 2025 NY: $70M rebate investment Philip Kreycik 10

11 Market barrier and policy landscape assessment What are the barriers to strategic electrification? Economic. e.g., inadequate return on investment, high upfront costs Institutional. e.g., inadequate awareness, decision-making barriers such as split incentives, range anxiety for electric vehicles Technical & infrastructure barriers. e.g., poor controls/integration, electric vehicle supply equipment network Economic Institutional Technical Philip Kreycik 11

12 Market barrier and policy landscape assessment: tools ready to go Policy Database What policies or programs can provide solutions to market development barriers? Mandates, permitting, and regs QA/QC programs Marketing and outreach programs Electrification Policy Database Financing and business models Incentives, modifications to rate structures Planning and targets Philip Kreycik 12

13 Technology and market assessment Buildings Heat pumps for space and water heating Build on work we ve been doing on renewable heating and cooling in New York, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, and elsewhere Coupling with efficiency: Heat pumps fundamentally more efficient than combustion or resistance Building shells; installation and design practices Local leadership Industry Lead by example; codes; interaction with transportation planning; resilience/critical facilities Focus on process heat Electric options to supply that heat (heat pumps, induction, arc furnaces) New processes that use electricity instead of heat (UV curing vs. heat curing) Identify 3-5 key industries with scale and/or growth Expect more retrofit (vs. stock turnover) Asa Hopkins 13

14 Technology and market assessment Transportation Light duty: Electric vehicles replacing internal combustion Stock turnover model of vehicle fleet Interaction with ride-sharing; autonomous vehicles Non-light duty: Mass transit and freight Fleets and systems Interaction with land use planning Recognize uncertainty Fast-moving technology advancements interact with changes in use patterns Identify and characterize hard-to-electrify end uses Competition with natural gas Combined heat and power Some non-ldv applications Asa Hopkins 14

15 Grid and consumer impacts Peak and energy impacts Increasing electric demand means need for more supply Local distribution grid impacts Demand flexibility and storage Mitigate impacts through planning, advanced distribution management, strategic use of distributed energy resources Can rates fall for all if sales rise faster than peaks? Customer participation Distributed resources How to engage and empower low-income and other underserved communities? Asa Hopkins 15

16 Synthesis and timelines Scale, scaling, and modeling M-SEM scenarios built from the policies and technologies analyzed Adoption and turnover rates how much of what by when? Incorporate efficiency and renewables to inform picture of how the strategies work together to impact GHG emissions Transition timeline Identify areas of policy, program development, and research that should be started over the next 5, 10, and 15 years Stay on the path to meet carbon reduction goals by 2050 Asa Hopkins 16

17 Report and presentation Framing a regional conversation calls for materials that engage and inform multiple audiences (not just for wonks!) Infographics Sankey diagrams Clear language about practical implications Schedule: May 22 Draft report Late May Advisory Committee June 29 Strategic Electrification Summit July 14 Final Report Asa Hopkins 17

18 Thank you We look forward to working with you on this project, and welcome your input and expertise to improve the product and serve the region well. Please be in touch! Asa S. Hopkins Synapse Energy Economics Philip Kreycik Meister Consultants Group Synapse and MCG 18

19 Backup slides 19

20 MCG and Synapse know strategic electrification RH&C and electrification of the thermal sector Synapse and MCG have been working together on markets and policies in Rhode Island and New York MCG led ASHP and GSHP analyses for Massachusetts, National Grid, and New York City, Washingotn, D.C., Boulder, Burlington, Boston, Northampton, Providence, Somerville, Portland ME, and more cities Transportation electrification Synapse modeled RGGI expansion to include transportation electrification and deep energy efficiency through RGGI Opportunity 2.0 Synapse has designed electric rates for EVs, modeled rate impacts from fuel switching MCG has designed procurement programs aiding in electrification and fuel switching in the medium and heavy duty vehicle sectors Total electrification and 100 percent renewables Synapse modeled strategies to electrify nearly every end use for Pennsylvania Asa Hopkins designed Vermont s nation-leading electrification policies and led the development of their 2016 Comprehensive Energy Plan Asa Hopkins 20