BP Energy Outlook 2017 edition

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1 BP Energy Outlook 2017 edition Bob Dudley Group chief executive bp.com/energyoutlook #BPstats

2 BP Energy Outlook 2017 edition Spencer Dale Group chief economist bp.com/energyoutlook #BPstats

3 Economic backdrop Contributions to GDP growth by factor Contributions to GDP growth by region % per annum 5% Productivity 4% Population % per annum 5% OECD India 4% Other China Africa 3% 3% 2% 2% 1% 1% 0% %

4 Thousands Global energy demand Energy consumption by region Growth in GDP and primary energy Billion toe 18 Other 16 Africa 14 Other non-oecd Asia 12 India China 10 OECD 8 % per annum 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Energy intensity GDP Primary energy 6 0% 4-1% 2-2% %

5 Fuel mix Primary energy consumption by fuel Shares of primary energy Billion toe *Renewables includes wind, solar, geothermal, biomass, and biofuels Renewables* Hydro Nuclear Coal Gas Oil 5 50% Oil 40% Coal 30% Gas 20% Renewables* 10% Hydro Nuclear 0%

6 China s declining dependency on coal Coal consumption growth by region Shares of primary energy in China Billion toe OECD Other non-oecd Asia India China Other Total 80% 70% 60% 50% Coal % % 20% Oil Non-fossil % Gas 0%

7 Fuel mix Primary energy consumption by fuel Shares of primary energy Billion toe *Renewables includes wind, solar, geothermal, biomass, and biofuels Renewables* Hydro Nuclear Coal Gas Oil 7 50% Oil 40% Coal 30% Gas 20% Renewables* 10% Hydro Nuclear 0%

8 Renewables Renewables as a share of power generation Shares of renewable power growth 40% 30% EU US World China 40% 30% % 20% % 10% 0% % EU China US OECD Asia India Africa 8

9 Growth of the power sector 50% Power sector s share of primary energy consumption Electricity consumption per capita MWh 10 OECD 8 China 40% 6 Coal 30% 20% World 4 Gas India 2 Renew. Africa Hydro

10 Key features of the energy outlook Global energy demand continues to grow, driven by the burgeoning Asian middle class The fuel mix gradually decarbonizes with non-fossil fuels providing almost half of the increase in primary energy The global economy continues to electrify, with the power sector playing an ever-increasing role in shaping the energy transition 10

11 Oil How might electric cars and the broader mobility revolution affect oil demand? How might the abundance of oil resources affect the behaviour of low-cost oil producers? 11

12 Oil demand Liquids demand Mb/d 120 Power 100 Buildings Industry 80 Non-combusted 60 Ships, trains & planes 40 Trucks 20 Transport Cars Liquids includes oil, biofuels and derivatives of coal and natural gas Liquids demand growth Mb/d, average annual growth Power Industry Transport Buildings Non-combusted Total

13 Growth of electric cars Billions of vehicles 2.0 Electric cars Conventional cars 1.5 Non-OECD OECD The global car fleet: By region By type By region By type $/kwh Illustrative path for battery pack costs 50 Battery pack costs* Range of estimates of cost parity between electric and oil-powered cars *For a Battery Electric Vehicle with a 60 kwh pack. Cost projections depend heavily on the degree of EV uptake, which is uncertain, so ranges should be treated as illustrative only. Current estimates of battery costs also vary widely, but this uncertainty is not shown 13

14 Liquid fuel demand from cars Decomposing changes in liquids demand from cars: Mb/d Growth in demand for travel Gains in fuel efficiency Switching to natural gas vehicles Switching to electric vehicles

15 Mobility revolution Electric cars: lead to a switch away from conventional cars Autonomous vehicles: improve fuel efficiency via efficient driving Car sharing: can amplify the effects of new-technology cars Ride pooling: reduce total miles driven by pooling journeys 15

16 Mobility revolution scenarios Mb/d 25 Digital revolution: Impact on oil demand in cars in 2035 Mb/d 25 Electric revolution: Impact on oil demand in cars in

17 Oil How might electric cars and the broader mobility revolution affect oil demand? How might the abundance of oil resources affect the behaviour of low-cost oil producers? 17

18 Abundance of oil resources Estimates of technically recoverable resources and cumulative oil demand Trillion barrels Europe Asia Africa S&C America N America CIS Middle East Technically recoverable resources Cumulative demand 18 Mb/d Oil supply of lower-cost producers Low-cost producer s share of global liquids production (right axis) US Russia Middle East OPEC Share 65% 60% 55% 50% 45% 0 40%

19 Natural gas Gas supply growth: Gas consumption by sector Bcf/d Other Africa China US Other Australia Russia Middle East Bcf/d Transport Buildings Power Non-combusted Industry 0 Shale Conventional decline Conventional growth

20 Growth of LNG LNG supply LNG demand Bcf/d Other Russia Africa United States Australia Qatar Bcf/d Other Middle East S&C America Asia Europe

21 LNG Trade Net LNG exports and imports in 2035 (Bcf/d) North America 22 Europe 17 Middle East Other Asia Russia Exports Imports S & C America 2 Africa 7 Australia

22 Carbon emissions 22

23 Carbon emissions % per annum 2.5% Contributions to slower growth of carbon emissions Billion tonnes CO 2 40 Carbon emissions 2.0% GDP 30 IEA 450 Base case 1.5% 1.0% Energy intensity Fuel mix % %

24 Faster transition pathways Billion tonnes CO 2 40 Carbon emissions Reductions in emissions versus base case Billion tonnes CO 2 in Power 30 Base case Faster transition Even faster transition CCUS* Industry & Buildings Transport Faster transition Even faster transition * Carbon capture, use and storage (predominantly in power sector) 24

25 Faster transition pathways Carbon emissions Reductions in emissions versus base case Billion tonnes CO 2 Billion tonnes CO 2 in Power 30 Base case Faster transition Even faster transition CCUS* Industry & Buildings Transport Faster transition Even faster transition * Carbon capture, use and storage (predominantly in power sector) 25

26 Energy outlook under alternative transition pathways Annual demand growth by fuel The changing fuel mix Mtoe per annum % of primary energy Non-fossil Coal Gas Oil 50% 40% 30% Oil Gas Coal Non-fossil 50 Total 0 20% Base FT EFT CO2 10% 0% 2015 Base FT EFT

27 Comparison with other low carbon scenarios Growth rate (% p.a.) Faster transition Even faster transition IEA 450 MIT 2 Base IHS Markit Solar Efficiency Greenpeace Revolution Carbon emissions -0.7% -2.0% -2.0% -2.0% -2.8% -3.2% Total energy 0.9% 0.8% 0.4% 0.5% -0.7% -0.1% Energy intensity -2.4% -2.5% -3.0% -2.9% -4.0% -3.5% Carbon intensity -1.5% -2.7% -2.3% -2.5% -2.1% -3.5% Share of total energy, 2035 Oil & gas 51% 48% 48% 46% 51% 39% Renewables 16% 23% 17% 29% 19% 38% Share of abatement vs 2015 Power sector >100% 89% 77% 74% 58% 35% 27

28 Comparison with other low carbon scenarios Growth rate (% p.a.) Faster transition Even faster transition IEA 450 MIT 2 Base IHS Markit Solar Efficiency Greenpeace Revolution Carbon emissions -0.7% -2.0% -2.0% -2.0% -2.8% -3.2% Total energy 0.9% 0.8% 0.4% 0.5% -0.7% -0.1% Energy intensity -2.4% -2.5% -3.0% -2.9% -4.0% -3.5% Carbon intensity -1.5% -2.7% -2.3% -2.5% -2.1% -3.5% Share of total energy, 2035 Oil & gas 51% 48% 48% 46% 51% 39% Renewables 16% 23% 17% 29% 19% 38% Share of abatement vs 2015 Power sector >100% 89% 77% 74% 58% 35% 28

29 Comparison with other low carbon scenarios Growth rate (% p.a.) Faster transition Even faster transition IEA 450 MIT 2 Base IHS Markit Solar Efficiency Greenpeace Revolution Carbon emissions -0.7% -2.0% -2.0% -2.0% -2.8% -3.2% Total energy 0.9% 0.8% 0.4% 0.5% -0.7% -0.1% Energy intensity -2.4% -2.5% -3.0% -2.9% -4.0% -3.5% Carbon intensity -1.5% -2.7% -2.3% -2.5% -2.1% -3.5% Share of total energy, 2035 Oil & gas 51% 48% 48% 46% 51% 39% Renewables 16% 23% 17% 29% 19% 38% Share of abatement vs 2015 Power sector >100% 89% 77% 74% 58% 35% 29

30 Comparison with other low carbon scenarios Growth rate (% p.a.) Faster transition Even faster transition IEA 450 MIT 2 Base IHS Markit Solar Efficiency Greenpeace Revolution Carbon emissions -0.7% -2.0% -2.0% -2.0% -2.8% -3.2% Total energy 0.9% 0.8% 0.4% 0.5% -0.7% -0.1% Energy intensity -2.4% -2.5% -3.0% -2.9% -4.0% -3.5% Carbon intensity -1.5% -2.7% -2.3% -2.5% -2.1% -3.5% Share of total energy, 2035 Oil & gas 51% 48% 48% 46% 51% 39% Renewables 16% 23% 17% 29% 19% 38% Share of abatement vs 2015 Power sector >100% 89% 77% 74% 58% 35% 30

31 Comparison with other low carbon scenarios Growth rate (% p.a.) Faster transition Even faster transition IEA 450 MIT 2 Base IHS Markit Solar Efficiency Greenpeace Revolution Carbon emissions -0.7% -2.0% -2.0% -2.0% -2.8% -3.2% Total energy 0.9% 0.8% 0.4% 0.5% -0.7% -0.1% Energy intensity -2.4% -2.5% -3.0% -2.9% -4.0% -3.5% Carbon intensity -1.5% -2.7% -2.3% -2.5% -2.1% -3.5% Share of total energy, 2035 Oil & gas 51% 48% 48% 46% 51% 39% Renewables 16% 23% 17% 29% 19% 38% Share of abatement vs 2015 Power sector >100% 89% 77% 74% 58% 35% 31

32 Comparison with other low carbon scenarios Growth rate (% p.a.) Faster transition Even faster transition IEA 450 MIT 2 Base IHS Markit Solar Efficiency Greenpeace Revolution Carbon emissions -0.7% -2.0% -2.0% -2.0% -2.8% -3.2% Total energy 0.9% 0.8% 0.4% 0.5% -0.7% -0.1% Energy intensity -2.4% -2.5% -3.0% -2.9% -4.0% -3.5% Carbon intensity -1.5% -2.7% -2.3% -2.5% -2.1% -3.5% Share of total energy, 2035 Oil & gas 51% 48% 48% 46% 51% 39% Renewables 16% 23% 17% 29% 19% 38% Share of abatement vs 2015 Power sector >100% 89% 77% 74% 58% 35% 32

33 Risks to gas demand Global primary energy shares % of primary energy 40% Base case 35% Slower gas case Coal 30% 25% Mtoe per annum Natural gas growth Increasing climate and environmental policies Coal 20% 15% Gas 5 10% Slower gas case Base case Faster transition Even faster transition 33

34 BP Energy Outlook 2017 edition bp.com/energyoutlook #BPstats

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