LBBW investor briefing Joachim Lutz (CEO) 16 November 2015

Transcription

1 LBBW investor briefing Joachim Lutz (CEO) 16 November 215

2 US-$/bbl in million t Renewable energies: why we need them Energy consumption increases Erratic development of oil prices Risks of oil exploration increase Deep sea Tar sands Fracking 4,5 4, 3,5 3, 2, Development on oil consumption worldwide Oil price development Welt ICE Brent Source: MWV Increasing release of CO 2 Global warming, storms Soil erosion, droughts, floodings

3 EU Energiewende (energy transition): blind in one eye? Gross electricity production in the EU (212) (total: approx. 3,3 TWh) Energy consumption in transport in the EU (212) (total: approx. 4, TWh) Biodiesel 3% Bioethanol 1% Coal 27% Renewables 24% Others 3% Natural gas 19% Nuclear energy 27% Fossil fuels 96% Source: EU Commission (214) 3

4 European bioethanol: an alternative to oil? Reality of clean transport : Consumers increasingly prefer SUV Misperception about carbon-density of Diesel/Gasoline and NOx Many states support Diesel consumption by lower excise taxes Chance for ethanol as bridging fuel Clean: approved GHG saving and low NOx Safe: no risk in exploration, import or transport Strong: 113 octane, 1x higher energy density as Li-Ion Large car fleet (Germany) 1/1/215 (KBA) 44,43,124 1% mileage 211 thereof: Petrol 29,837, % 57% diesel 13,861, % 43% electric cars 18,948.4% Raw material sourcing and iluc Feedstock (i) from Europe, (ii) low-quality, (iii) no dedicated land use Production of high protein feedstock reduces protein imports 4

5 (1, toe) (1, toe) EU: agreement on framework for 22 ( iluc directive ) Amendment published on 15 Sept 215 Share of renewable energies in transport of 1% in 22 (unchanged) Share of conventional biofuels: up to 7% Subtarget for biofuels from waste and residues:.5% Double counting of advanced biofuels and multiple counting of renewable electricity Reporting of estimated iluc emissions Outlook Transposition in national legislation till 217 E1 from EU ethanol (plus protein-rich food and animal feed) offers a clean, safe, strong solution to decarbonize transport 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, EU: market size and market potential 13,487 2,669 1,819 Actual , 1 cal.-% (22) EtOH 18,9 18,987 7 cal.-% (22) FAME 5,238 13,749 B7/E1 (214) Sources: EUROBSERV ER, EU, CE 5

6 (in million m 3 ) (in million m 3 ) EU: production and consumption of bioethanol in 215e Consumption Fuel: 5.1 million m 3 (-4%) total: 7.6 million m 3 (-2%) Production Fuel: 5.1 million m³ (-2%) total: 7.3 million m 3 (-1%) Consumption of bioethanol Fuel ethanol Non-fuel ethanol Production of bioethanol Fuel ethanol Non-fuel ethanol Source: F.O.Licht 6

7 (1,. m 3 ) Germany: introduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction targets First insights after half a year Bioethanol consumption in Germany Bioethanol consumption in Germany (1, m 3 ) 18 6% 215: 3.5%; 4.% in 217, 6.% in 22 In 1 st half 215 average GHG savings: approx. 6% However: higher than expected GHG savings were not used to reduce emissions but to reduce blend volume EtOH in ETBE EtOH in E85 5% 4% 3% Direct Blending 2% blending rate 1% % Source: BAFA GHG reduction targets should be accelerated Source: BAFA Fuel ethanol consumption down 3.7% to 71, m 3 (blending rate: 4.1 cal.-%) E1 market penetration Germany 14% France 33% Finland 61% USA Brazil E1 is standard E2 is minimum 7

8 Price developments on relevant markets Europäische Benzin- und Ethanolpreise Recovery of European ethanol prices EU prices 6 /m 3 (end of Oct 215) Decoupling from low petrol prices Physical shortage especially in Rotterdam /m Ethanol and gasoline price Moderate decline of grain prices World: USDA expects grain harvest of 2,6 million t, only slightly below last year s record EU: despite smaller crops in Central and Southern Europe, harvest of 297 million t still above average 4 25 Ethanol T2 FOB RDAM Prem. Gas. 1 PPM FOB ARA 8

9 (in million /, m³) (in million) Operating profit: 1 st half 215/16 (in million) 6M 15/16 6M Δ Δ Revenues % Total output % % Cost of materials* % Spread (gross) % Revenues / Production Further operating expenses / income* #WERT! 2 EBITDA* % Depreciaton* % Operating profit Margin 1.2% neg. *without restructuring costs and special items Revenues with 39 million close to previous year s level Production decrease of bioethanol, food and animal feed Bioethanol production: 422 (478), m³ (-12%) EBITDA up by 43 million Operating profit up by 44 million nd half Operating profit -7 2nd half 15/ /16 9

10 (in million) (in million) Income statement: 1 st half 215/16 (in million) 6M 15/16 6M Δ Revenues Operating profit Restructuring costs / special items At equity result Income from operations Financial result Earnings before income taxes Taxes on income Net earnings for the period Earnings per share (in ) Income from operations nd half Net earnings for the period 31 15/ Income from operations up by 35 million Strong increase in net earnings nd half 15/16 1

11 (in million) (in million) Balance sheet structure and financial ratios (in million) 31/8/215 31/8/214 Δ Δ Net financial debt Assets Non-current assets % Current assets % -5 Total assets % Liabilities Shareholders' equity % Non-current liabilities % Current liabilities % Total liabilities and equity % -2 Net financial debt (NFD) Equity ratio 57% 57% Gearing (NFD/Equity) 3% 38% Shareholders equity lowered due to net losses in FY Equity ratio still strong at 57% Net financial debt decreases yoy by 4.9 million Shareholders' equity

12 ( /m 3 ) Outlook 215/16e High volatility in bioethanol prices (fuel) makes outlook difficult Production lower than previous year s level due to temporary production pause in Wilton Revenues to range from 7 to 75 million Operating profit to range from 5 to 7 million Restructuring costs to amount up to 2 million EU ethanol prices Platts Ethanol T2 FOB Rdam NYMEX Future-3M Ethanol (Platts) T2 FOB Rdam NYMEX Future-6M Ethanol (Platts) T2 FOB Rdam 12

13 Wheat in /t Appendix 1 EU: Ethanol producers under pressure EtOH and Gross Profit in /m Fuel Ethanol T2 FOB Rdm. Gross Profit NYMEX (Platts) Fuel EtOH T2 (6-Month-Forward) Euronext Paris Wheat No Sources: BAFA, SNPAA 13

14 Financial Calendar 12 January 216: Interim report for 1 st -3 rd quarter of 215/16 18 May 216: Annual report press and analysts conference financial year 215/16 6 July 216: Interim report for 1 st quarter of 216/17 12 July 216: Annual General Meeting 216 Stock information ISIN: Symbol: Bloomberg / Reuters: Transparency standard: DEALAUP1 CE2 CE2 GY / CE2G.DE Prime Standard Contact CropEnergies AG Maximilianstraße Mannheim Investor Relations Heike Baumbach Phone: +49 (621) ir@cropenergies.de Public Relations / Marketing Nadine Dejung Phone: +49 (621) presse@cropenergies.de Disclaimer This presentation contains forward-looking statements based on assumptions and estimates made by the executive board of CropEnergies AG. Although the executive board may be convinced that these assumptions and estimates are reasonable, the future actual developments and future actual results may vary considerably from the assumptions and estimates due to many external and internal factors. For example, matters to be mentioned in this connection include changes in the general economic conditions, competitive product and pricing pressures and developments in the regulatory framework. CropEnergies AG assumes no responsibility and accepts no liability for future developments and future actual results achieved being the same as the assumptions and estimates included in this presentation. This presentation includes percentage and number rounding.

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