World Bioethanol Perspectives

Transcription

1 European Biomass Industry Association World Bioethanol Perspectives Dr. Giuliano GRASSI EUBIA Secretary General Rue d Arlon, B-1040 Brussels Belgium eubia@eubia.org

2 Why Bioethanol? 1. To reduce Greenhouse Gas emissions from the transport sector 2. To improve security of energy supply (for transport) 3. To offer new outlets for the agricultural sector (from food to energy crops)

3 Context CO2 Mitigation is now the first EC priority!! The EC biofuels target is 10 % for the year 2020 The estimated EU potential (IEA) for biofuels is 30 % for the year 2030 What to do if the abrupt climate change and peak of conventional oil by 2020 proved to be correct?

4 Recent EU estimations of recoverable oil = bn barrels 1100 bn barrels already consumed Present consumption ~ 30 bn barrel/year World Oil consumption Thus : ~ 50 years supply

5 Context Oil Prices are likely to remain high because : Increasing demand (China, Korea, India etc ) Getting more difficult and expensive to extract oil (artic, deep sea, ) Limited refinery capacity to meet growing demand (number of vehicles from 600 mio to mio in ~ 20 years) Alternative fuels (from oil shale, tar sands, coal liquefaction) more costly Carbon charges to be added OPEC dominates the market With oil price rising alternatives liquid fuels will come on stream Liquid biofuels are gathering support because hydrogen remain a long term solution

6 Biofuels Current Situation Liquid Biofuels provide 1 % of present transport fuel demand Bioethanol provides ~ 2% of the World gasoline market Biodiesel provides 0.2 % of the World gasoline market Projection of biofuels contribution (IEA) : : 290 mio m3/year of bioethanol (10% of gasoline) : mio m3/year of bioethanol (30% of gasoline)

7 Biofuels Future Challenge Total crop land availability (FAO) : mio ha mio ha (present food area) mio ha (food area for 2025) mio ha (max Crop Area for no-food) Logistics chains for all co-products : problems for larger supply (0.5 to some mio t/y) to the processing plants Products quality of co-products for several markets Present competitiveness level for biofuels : ~ 400 /TOE Interest for High Energy Ratio (outputs/inputs) : R 2.0 (Present Range from 1 to 8) The introduction of FF vehicles changes the fuel market (the consumer decides the fuel at the refuelling station : fuel price is the most important factor) Search for new crops Better economics with Multi feedstocks-multi products processing but it is very complex issue.

8 World biofuels markets Food oil Biodiesel Bioethanol (blending 10%) 290mio m3/y 140 Mio m3 120 Biodiesel Food oil 100 No fuel 80 Fuel 60 Bioethanol Fuel Bioethanol (2.6% of gasoline market) Bioethanol trading (1,5 Mm3) 2006 Bioethanol (trading 1,5 Mm3) 2010 Bioethanol (trading 7 Mm3) 2010 Biodiesel ? Source : Biofuels Conference Feb (London)

9 /m Brasil (Sugar cane) Bioethanol Production Cost (2005) 175 Thailand (Cassava) 307 net 440 /m gross /m3 230 China (Corn) USA (Corn) EU (Wheat) EU (Sweet Sorgum) Cost of dewatering : ~ 40 /m3 Transport brasil-eu : ~ 40 /m3 World Food Crops Grains : 2,7 billion t/y Corn : 0,7 billion t/y Oil seed : 0.32 billion t/y Sugar cane : 1.3 billion t/y

10 The European Bioethanol Price Challenge ( /m3 : production cost + transportation + Import Tariff) 600 /m3 bioethanol market 430 /m3 (2006) Brazil (sugar cane) Australia (sugar cane) Thailand (Cassava) India (sugar cane) USA (corn) EU (Wheat) EU (Corn) EU (Sweet Sorhum) European ethanol now requires significant subsidy Indigenous market is required At present Ethanol mandate is the only solution across Europe

11 Why Sweet Sorghum for Bioethanol? Sweet Sorghum is an extraordinarily promising multifunctional crop for several reasons: It requires common soil even with high % of sand and it is also adapted to salty areas; It requires low of water imputs ( ~ 200 m3 /ton), 1/3 of sugar cane requirements, 1/2 of corn; It has a short growing cycle from seeds (4/5 months), 1/3 of sugar cane; Many varieties are available for genetic improvment (~4,600) A high productivity of several components (grains, sugars, lignocellulosic); It can be grown in all continents, in tropical, sub-tropical and temperate regions (covering sugar-cane most sugarbeet areas);

12 Potential geographical areas for S. Sorghum Because of his wide geographical cultivation potential Sweet Sorghum could be the most important energy crop for combined power&biofuel production Limit for cereals Sugar beet Sugar cane Sweet Sorghum

13 Three main types of Sorghum.

14 Sweet Sorghum Etoh Productivity Typical productivity from different varieties ETOH (l/ha) Sweet Sorghum variety But the real crop development for ETOH is not yet started! Shennong1(China) Shennong1(Italy) Foralco(ITA) Sofra(ITA) Doina(RUM) Carmen(RUM) Doina(India) F-135ST(India)

15 Biomass production (S.S.) Biomass Production Bioenergy products for sale 1 ha sweet Sorghum (2006) Grains ton 2.76 TOE 6.1 M3 etoh (4.2 TOE) Sugars ton 3.00 TOE 18 ton Agro-pellets 7.3 TOE 93 fresh ton/ha (Average of ha plantation) Bagasse ~ 20 dry ton 8.20 TOE TOE/ha ~ 103 bbl/ha (1bbl ~ TOE) 2.2 t DDG (~ 0.9 TOE) Total = 12.4 TOE

16 Energy Ratio (Sweet-Sorghum) INPUTS Energy consumption (for 1 ha S.S. plantation) ~ 0.85 TOE/ha Harvesting/cane crushing (for 1 ha S.S. plantation) ~ 1.20 TOE/ha Agro-pellets processing (for 1 ha S.S. plantation) ~ 1.40 TOE/ha TOTAL INPUTS ~ 3.45 TOE/ha OUTPUTS Bioethanol = 4.2 TOE/ha Agro-pellets = 7.3 TOE/ha DDG = 0.9 TOE/ha TOTAL OUTPUTS = 12.4 TOE/ha Energy Ratio : OUTPUTS INPUTS = 3.6

17 Cost of plantation Possible Value of Sweet-Sorghum components/ha Price of Final Products 1 ha sweet Sorghum (2006) ~ 850 /ha Cost of supply crop components to the complex ~ 1,250 /ha Grains (100 /t) 750 /ha Sugars (40 /t) 280 /ha Bagasse (11 /dry t) 220 /ha 60,00 50,00 40,00 30,00 20,00 10,00 transport (10 /t) processing (40 /t) residues (10 /t) 250,00 200,00 150,00 100,00 50,00 sugar value (2,4t x 40 ) supply cost (24 /m3) processing cost (110 /m3), no energy costs 0,00 agropellets 0,00 Bioethanol

18 Interest for Coproduction (Bioethanol-Power) from Sweet-Sorghum (High Volume of Biofuel & green power) Area S.S. Plantation (ha) Bioelectricity for sale* Bioethanol bioethanol) /production(m3 y 50x x x x x10 6 Green Power production for sale : KWh/y * Total bioelectricity production is 25 % higher but is used for the operation of the complex

19 Return Of Investment of Co-production (estimations)

20 Why Sweet-Sorghum is promising? Bioethanol price supply volume estimation Source : Biofuels Conference Feb (London)

21 Grains/Bofuels Trading Source : Biofuels Conference Feb (London)

22 Source : Biofuels Conference Feb (London)

23 Needed Source : Biofuels Conference Feb (London)

24 Main Conclusions Biofuels are presently the only ready-to-use solutions to curb rising CO2-emissions, to improve security of energy supply in the transport sector and to diversify the agriculture production EU bioethanol market is growing slowly but has high potential; still very small compared to the USA and Brazil, China etc EU Biofuels market is far from perfect : - (a) heterogeneous implementation in Member States - (b) no EU Common/internal Market yet EU-wide obligation of biofuels (like in USA and Brazil) is needed to achieve the target Low-cost bioethanol production is possible in future (sweetsorghum, lignocellulosic ETOH) in the EU.

25

26 European Biomass Industry Association Thank you for your attention! EUBIA Rue d Arlon, B-1040 Brussels, Belgium eubia@eubia.org

27 APPENDIX

28 Historical data on Alternative fuels in EUROPE European Consumption 1937 (t/year) Country Bioethanol Synthetic Fuels Total alternative fuels Total Transport Fuels Consumption Total Alternat. Total consump. UK ,1% France ,8% Germany ,5% Sweden ,1% Italy ,7% Europe (17 countries) ,7% Average subsidies : ~ 1.8 Li/l

29 Past Synthetic Gasoline Processes Hydrogenation Fisher-Tropsch Feedstock Capacity (gasoline/year) 8 t coal or 15 t lignite T gasoline > t/y ~ 17 t lignite T gasoline > t/y Process High pressure Low pressure Quality High octane Low octane Investment 880 mio li ( t/y) 220 mio li ( t/y) Production cost 1.61 li/kg 1.65 li/kg

30 ANIC fu obbligata nel 1937 a costruire 2 impianti (Livorno e Bari) con sovvenzione per garantire 6%-8% di interessi al capitale investito per 10 anni.

31 Transport Fuel Situation in Italy (1937) Total transport fuel : ton/year Bioethanol : ton/year Synthetic fuels : 0 ton/year Sugar beet area : ha (of which for bioethanol production) Refuelling stations : ~ units Rail-tanks : units Storage capacity : m3 Capacity of oil tankers : t Oil importing Co (low 14/02/1930) were obliged to mix gasoline with bioethanol (at 12% by law 21/10/1938) Many critics : - High cost. 265 Li/m3 - Plants operating only 2 months/year - High cost for energy processing : 1,5 Kg (imported coal) 1 Kg bioethanol - Incertitude of supply Program was initiated to asses sweet-sorghum potentiality because it presents : - Improved conservation capacity than sugar-beets - Higher bioethanol yield (3.5 against 2.5 m3/ha for s.b.) - Possibility of use of semi-arid lands of Mezzogiorno - Possible use of large ligno-cellulosic residues (i.e. paper) reducing the cost of bioethanol