The Florida Straits Conference: Model for International Cooperation

Transcription

1 The Florida Straits Conference: Model for International Cooperation Halmos College of Natural Sciences and Oceanography Nova Southeastern University Ft. Lauderdale, FL March 5-6, 2018 Organized by HUNT PETTY LP

2 Application of a Tightly Integrated Systems Modeling Framework to Quantify Complex Subsea Blowout Capping Operations Steve Fitzgerald Intuitive Machines

3 Capping Stack Deployment Simulation and Analysis Capabilities Steve Fitzgerald Intuitive Machines

4 Capping Stack Deployment Simulation Development Timeline Joint Cooperative Projects Blowout measurement system Capping stack deployment and analysis Blowout burn efficiency modeling Phase I NASA Space Act Proof of concept Initial computational framework Phase II NASA Space Act Multiphase hydrodynamics Distributed simulation development

5 Outline Framework for Questions Capping stack deployment analysis guiding principles Overview of the analysis capabilities Blowout surfacing dynamics Predictive capability Application to Gulf of Mexico Blowout Flowfield Predictive Capability Blowout Interaction Simulation Capability Conclusions

6 Question Framework Selection and Design of Operational Capping Concept for Location and Blowout Specifics Surface Resource Deployment Operations for Capping Stack Hydrodynamic interactions with ocean Lowering environment of the and Stack resulting to the structural Blowout dynamics Terminal Capping Operations and Blowout Interactions Blowout environment imposed operational limitations and hazards Deployment Team Training for Field Operational Specifics

7 Question Framework Specific Selection and Operational Design of Capping Concept for Location and Blowout Specifics Phase Highlighted Surface Resource Deployment Operations for Capping Stack Hydrodynamic interactions with ocean Lowering environment of the and Stack resulting to the structural Blowout dynamics Terminal Capping Operations and Blowout Interactions Blowout environment imposed operational limitations and hazards Operational Phase Specific Questions Deployment Team Training for Field Operational Specifics

8 Operational Concept Selection Selection and Design of Operational Capping Concept for Location and Blowout Specifics Surface Resource Deployment Operations for Capping Stack Hydrodynamic interactions with ocean Lowering environment of the and Stack resulting to the structural Blowout dynamics Terminal Capping Operations and Blowout Interactions How do plume surfacing dynamics impact deployment Blowout environment imposed operational limitations and hazards operational selection? Deployment Team Training for Field Operational Specifics

9 Surfacing Plume Offset Deployment

10 Guiding Principles for the Capping Stack Analysis Develop a capability that enhances the potential for first time success Build the capability to answer questions in the timeframe required Appropriate level of engineering Provides more complete answers, faster than anyone else When and where required Scope to allow for evaluation of full range of deployment operational scenarios Full range of GOR, flow conditions and exit geometry, anywhere in the world Surface deployed Buoyancy aided Provide answers to questions we haven t thought of yet

11 Capping Stack Analysis: What systems impact capping stack installation?

12 Capping Stack Analysis: What physical models can impact installation success? Buoyancy Elements Hydrocarbon Composition Jet/Plume Dynamics Surface Vessel 6 degree of freedom (6DOF) Dynamics Suspension dynamics 6DOF multi-body Stack 6DOF dynamics ROV 6DOF dynamics

13 Capping Stack Analysis: Major interactions between systems to be assessed Buoyancy Elements Hydrocarbon Composition Jet/Plume Dynamics Surface Vessel 6 degree of freedom (6DOF) Dynamics Suspension dynamics 6DOF multi-body Stack 6DOF dynamics ROV 6DOF dynamics

14 Operational Concept Selection Selection and Design of Operational Capping Concept for Location and Blowout Specifics Terminal Capping Operations and Blowout Interactions Surface Resource Deployment Operations for Capping Stack How do plume surfacing dynamics impact deployment Blowout environment imposed operational limitations and hazards operational concept selection? Hydrodynamic interactions with ocean Lowering environment of the and Stack resulting to the structural Blowout dynamics Deployment Team Training for Field Operational Specifics

15 Large Gas Blowout Simulation ROV Footage CFD 300MMscfd Simulation

16 Deployment Safe Standoff Distance As Observed from Helicopter on Day 22 CFD Simulated Blowout Surfacing

17 Simulation of Wave/Plume Surface Interaction

18 Gulf of Mexico Application Gas Surfacing Distribution Subsurface trapping of oil during summer months Well located at (0,0) Mississippi Canyon 1500 depth bbl/day released Macondo HC composition Simulations from 4/01/2009 to 9/01/2014 Significant week to week variance in surfacing location

19 Deployment Vessel Operations Selection and Design of Operational Capping Concept for Location and Blowout Specifics Terminal Capping Operations and Blowout Interactions Surface Resource Deployment Operations for Capping Stack Blowout environment imposed operational limitations and hazards What are the environmental limits on splashing the stack? Hydrodynamic interactions with ocean Lowering environment of the and Stack resulting to the structural Blowout dynamics What are my operational success probabilities with the present environmental conditions? When will my deployment success be optimal? Deployment Team Training for Field Operational Specifics How will DP react to vessel dynamics imposed by capping operations? What is the appropriate sized vessel to best execute the deployment?

20 Suspension System Dynamics Selection and Design of Operational Capping Concept for Location and Blowout Specifics Terminal Capping Operations and Blowout Interactions Surface Resource Deployment Operations for Capping Stack How will active heave compensation controls react to blowout induced loading on capping stack? How will buoyancy aided deployments react to plume loading? How will synthetic line deployments react to Blowout environment imposed operational limitations and hazards fluctuating stack loading? Wire rope? What about combined surface vessel, plume, and cross current dynamic loading? Impact of dynamic loads transmitted to seabed anchors? Hydrodynamic interactions with ocean Lowering environment of the and Stack resulting to the structural Blowout dynamics Deployment Team Training for Field Operational Specifics

21 Blowout Interactions Selection and Design of Operational Capping Concept for Location and Blowout Specifics Terminal Capping Operations and Blowout Interactions Hydrodynamic interactions with ocean Prediction Surface Resource of Deployment stack loading as a function of depth, flow environment and resulting structural Operations for Capping Stack Lowering of the Stack to the Blowout rate, GOR, and stack specifics? dynamics What are the decision gates to proceed with capping? How do control systems react to placement of the stack in the plume? Is passive better? Are we modeling the full coupled system dynamics? What are the specific blowout dynamics risks to the hardware? Deployment Team Training for Field Operational Specifics Blowout environment imposed What about incidental contact with the tree? What are operational limitations and hazards the operational factors to minimize it? How are required ROV interactions impacted by near jet operations and subsea current? How stable is the combined dynamics of the system? What are our tolerances for movement? Over what timeframe?

22 Large Gas Blowout Observed on Day 52 ROV Footage CFD 300MMscfd Simulation

23 Impact of GOR on Plume Dynamics Depth: 800 Density: kg/m3 Depth: 800 Density: kg/m3 Depth: 5000 Density: kg/m3 Depth: 5000 Density: kg/m3

24 Impact of GOR on Plume Velocities

25 Impact of GOR on Plume Dynamic Pressures

26 Blowout Induced Operational Limits and Hazards Selection and Design of Operational Capping Concept for Location and Blowout Specifics Surface Resource Deployment Operations for Capping Stack Hydrodynamic interactions with ocean Lowering environment of the and Stack resulting to the structural Blowout dynamics What are the blowout flowfield induced operational limits? Are there additional blowout hazards to successful capping operations? Terminal Capping Operations and Blowout Interactions Blowout environment imposed operational limitations and hazards Deployment Team Training for Field Operational Specifics

27 Operational Awareness

28 Deployment Team Training Capabilities Selection and Design of Operational Capping Concept for Location and Blowout Specifics Terminal Capping Operations and Blowout Interactions Surface Resource Deployment Operations for Capping Stack How do I train the team on normal vs non-normal dynamic behaviors? How do I train for deployment contingencies? How can I train all team members on coordinated deployment operations and exercise decision paths in advance? How do I train up the team on site and Blowout environment imposed operational limitations and hazards situation specific operational contraints? How do I identify operational bottlenecks and minimize delays/incidents during actual deployment Hydrodynamic interactions with ocean Lowering environment of the and Stack resulting to the structural Blowout dynamics Deployment Team Training for Field Operational Specifics

29 Observational Simulations ADCP based methods cluster NGOFS misses This is one of the better matches Overall, less than 40% success Use of measured currents makes it work ADCP predictive results are typical across the observational period Where is the sheen? What direction is it moving?

30 Release Simulation ADCP measured currents are surprisingly dynamic New tool developed specifically to take advantage of ADCP measurements Volumetrically appropriate for X flow per day Presently utilizing particles per simulation Smaller particles more greatly impacted Lots of surprises and Aha s Explains what team observed in the field Trajectories validated with sonar data on multiple days

31 Surface Sheen Prediction Validation Comparisons with pilot observations include origin, direction, and photographic evidence

32 Comparison with Observations Comparisons with pilot observations include origin, direction, and photographic evidence

33 Conclusions Intuitive Machines and Boots & Coots industry unique capability to evaluate capping stack deployments from lift-off to landing Engineering proficiency RWP, DKA, CDA, KTA, MRA Wide range of simulation options for hydrodynamic, environmental, structural, and dynamic modeling Full engineering rigor with turbulent, multi-phase CFD and non-linear finite elements analysis Engineering models for near-field blowout analysis, multi-body/multi-phase structure interaction with real-time simulation capability for a range of operational scenarios Worldwide historical and predictive environment model access Surface sheen propagation with accurate predictive modeling The capability exists NOW to answer questions

34 The Team

35 The Florida Straits Conference: Model for International Cooperation Thank you Halmos College of Natural Sciences and Oceanography Nova Southeastern University Ft. Lauderdale, FL Organized by HUNT PETTY LP

36 The Florida Straits Conference: Model for International Cooperation Capping Stack Deployment Simulation and Analysis Capabilities Halmos College of Natural Sciences and Oceanography Nova Southeastern University Ft. Lauderdale, FL Organized by HUNT PETTY LP