9 October 2012 GIS Proposal Margaret Cook. The Impact of Drought and Heat Wave on the Electricity Supply of Texas

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1 9 October 2012 GIS Proposal Margaret Cook The Impact of Drought and Heat Wave on the Electricity Supply of Texas Purpose: Determine the impact of drought and heat wave to the electricity supply for the Electricity Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) in the next twenty years via GIS. Traditional thermoelectric power plants use water for cooling while generating electricity; in Texas, the average power plant uses over 73 billion gallons of water for cooling in one year. In an open-loop cooling process, this water is then discharged into a nearby pond of reservoir at a much hotter temperature than it started. The Environmental Protection Agency sets thermal limits on how hot this water can be at discharge. If the water being pulled in from the lake to cool the power plant is already hot, the power plant cannot use as much of it before discharging without breaching its thermal limit. The recent drought in Texas revealed the vulnerability of curtailment for some power plants due to cooling water supplies being too hot. Assessing the risk of reduced operations at thermoelectric power plants associated with thermal discharge limits, as well the potential for cooperation between power plants, can increase the resiliency of the electricity grid in Texas and aid future planning. This GIS project will allow me to assess the vulnerability of the ERCOT grid over the entire geographical region rather than by individual plants. In addition, I will assess the potential for other existing power plants to generate additional electricity to offset the curtailment of a particular power plant and maintain grid electricity. Location: The Texas Gulf Basin (HUC 2) Data Sources: o Texas Water Development Board (TWDB) HUCs shapefile o TWDB Major Rivers in Texas shapefile o Texas Commission on Environmental Quality (TCEQ) SWQM_2008_SEGMENT_POLY shapefile o TCEQ Segments_Res_Est o TWDB Existing_Reservoirs_2007_dd o Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) thermal limits for power plants o Energy Information Administration (EIA) Power Plant Specific Information, EIA Forms 860 and 923 o University of Texas (UT), Sandia National Laboratory ERCOTPowerPlants_WaterforCooling_ o Argonne Climate Data for 2030 o Argonne Estimated Reservoir Levels for 2030 o TCEQ Water Rights shapefile o TCEQ Database of Water Rights Excel file o UT Effluent Temperature Model Procedure: o Map out the ERCOT power plants in the Texas Gulf Basin HUC 2 using open cooling and their cooling sources. This step will require creating a shapefile from power plant data and exporting the cooling reservoirs from the lake shapefiles. o Using symbology, characterize the water consumption and withdrawal to show the strict dependence upon water by each power plant. o Characterize the power generation capacity of each power plant to show its importance to the ERCOT electricity supply. 1

2 9 October 2012 GIS Proposal Margaret Cook o o o o o Create shapefiles for the dew point, temperature, wind speed, and evaporation in the HUC to show the areas of biggest concern in a drought. Quantify the loss of power generation to the ERCOT grid using regression models of effluent temperature with Argonne climatological data and EIA power generation data as parameters. Quantify the potential increase in power generation from other power plants even under drought conditions. Based on EPA thermal limits of other power plants, amount of water needed to generate more energy, amount of water available in the associated cooling reservoir, and amount of water allowed for diversion by TCEQ Recommend a drought mitigation plan for each power plant at risk of powering down in drought. Transport electricity from another power plant to the one at risk. Acquire a new water source 2

3 Update: The Impact of Drought and Heat Wave on the Electricity Supply of Texas Attached are an updated proposal with changes shown in red and checks shown for completed tasks and layouts of current maps created for the GIS project The Impact of Drought and Heat Wave on the Electricity Supply of Texas and. A description of each of the layouts is shown below. The map Energy Production by OS, OC, OF, and RC Power Plants in ERCOT shows the varying electricity generation capacities for open loop and recycled cooling plants in the Electric Reliability Council of Texas and the Gulf Coast Basin. The maps Water Consumption by OS, OC, OF, and RC Power Plants in ERCOT and Water Withdrawal by OS, OC, OF, and RC Power Plants in ERCOT show the varying water consumptions and withdrawals by open loop and recycled cooling plants in ERCOT. The amount of water withdrawn parallels the amount of electricity generated in some but not all cases. A comparison of the amount of water consumed with the amount of water withdrawn shows the amount of water discharged back to the cooling water source. The map Water Sources for OS, OC, OF, and RC Power Plants in ERCOT shows the open loop and recycled cooling plants and their respective water sources, including the small cooling ponds and major rivers. A supplemental map of the same name also shows changes in amount of precipitation across Texas. ERCOT open loop and recycled cooling plants in the Gulf Coast Basin are located in areas of high precipitation. The maps labeled Climate in ERCOT for temperature, wind speed, and dew point show the climate parameters for 2030 modeled by Argonne. The map Climate in ERCOT: Areas of Concern combines the harshest parts of each climate map high temperature, low wind speed, and high dew point to show the areas of risk. High temperatures and low wind speed result in hot water with less evaporation. When the water in a cooling pond does not cool, power plants cannot use as much of it to cool their process nor can they discharge as much without raising the temperature above the thermal limit set by the Environmental Protection Agency. **This map needs to be edited for clarity and aesthetics** 3

4 Update: The Impact of Drought and Heat Wave on the Electricity Supply of Texas Purpose: Determine the impact of drought and heat wave to the electricity supply for the Electricity Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) in the next twenty years via GIS. Traditional thermoelectric power plants use water for cooling while generating electricity; in Texas, the average power plant uses over 73 billion gallons of water for cooling in one year. In an open-loop cooling process, this water is then discharged into a nearby pond of reservoir at a much hotter temperature than it started. The Environmental Protection Agency sets thermal limits on how hot this water can be at discharge. If the water being pulled in from the lake to cool the power plant is already hot, the power plant cannot use as much of it before discharging without breaching its thermal limit. The recent drought in Texas revealed the vulnerability of curtailment for some power plants due to cooling water supplies being too hot. Assessing the risk of reduced operations at thermoelectric power plants associated with thermal discharge limits, as well the potential for cooperation between power plants, can increase the resiliency of the electricity grid in Texas and aid future planning. This GIS project will allow me to assess the vulnerability of the ERCOT grid over the entire geographical region rather than by individual plants. In addition, I will assess the potential for other existing power plants to generate additional electricity to offset the curtailment of a particular power plant and maintain grid electricity. Location: The Texas Gulf Basin (HUC 2) Data Sources: o Texas Water Development Board (TWDB) HUCs shapefile o TWDB Major Rivers in Texas shapefile o Texas Commission on Environmental Quality (TCEQ) SWQM_2008_SEGMENT_POLY shapefile o TCEQ Segments_Res_Est o TWDB Existing_Reservoirs_2007_dd o Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) thermal limits for power plants o Energy Information Administration (EIA) Power Plant Specific Information, EIA Forms 860 and 923 o University of Texas (UT), Sandia National Laboratory ERCOTPowerPlants_WaterforCooling_ o Argonne Climate Data for 2030 o Argonne Estimated Reservoir Levels for 2030 o TCEQ Water Rights shapefile o TCEQ Database of Water Rights Excel file o UT Effluent Temperature Model Procedure: Map out the ERCOT power plants in the Texas Gulf Basin HUC 2 using open cooling and their cooling sources. This step will require creating a shapefile from power plant data and exporting the cooling reservoirs from the lake shapefiles. Using symbology, characterize the water consumption and withdrawal to show the strict dependence upon water by each power plant. Characterize the power generation capacity of each power plant to show its importance to the ERCOT electricity supply. 4

5 Create shapefiles for the dew point, temperature, wind speed, and evaporation in the HUC to show the areas of biggest concern in a drought. Show a change over time throughout the period, only summer months Edit for aesthetics and clarity o Quantify the loss of power generation to the ERCOT grid using regression models of effluent temperature with Argonne climatological data and EIA power generation data as parameters. o Quantify the potential increase in power generation from other power plants even under drought conditions. o Based on EPA thermal limits of other power plants, amount of water needed to generate more energy, amount of water available in the associated cooling reservoir, and amount of water allowed for diversion by TCEQ o Recommend a drought mitigation plan for each power plant at risk of powering down in drought. Transport electricity from another power plant to the one at risk. Calculate the cost of lost profit? Acquire a new water source Add cost of including new water source? Add profit from generation sales 5

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