Trade-offs between climate change, energy security, and wider sustainability issues: a European perspective

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1 Trade-offs between climate change, energy security, and wider sustainability issues: a European perspective TRB Environment and Energy Research Conference Sujith Kollamthodi AEA Technology plc sujith.kollamthodi@aeat.co.uk June 9 th 2010

EU Transport GHG: Routes to 2050 Research project undertaken for European Commission to aid development of long-term EU policy framework for reducing transportation sector GHG emissions Examined both

2 EU Transport GHG: Routes to 2050 Research project undertaken for European Commission to aid development of long-term EU policy framework for reducing transportation sector GHG emissions Examined both behavioral and technological options Quantified costs and emissions impacts of possible policy measures using in-house scenario tool developed for this project Impacts on air pollutants and energy security also investigated EXTENSIVE CONSULTATION with stakeholders across Europe Outcomes indicate that in order to reduce EU economy-wide emissions by 80%, reductions of 50% to 80% (against 1990 levels) will be required for the transportation sector

Scenario development Range of policy measures

the GHG intensity of transport fuels Progressive

CO 2 targets for vans and heavy duty vehicles Increases

Eco-driving techniques Policies to reduce speed limits

3 Scenario development Range of policy measures investigated using scenario tool Legislation to reduce the GHG intensity of transport fuels Progressive tightening of car CO 2 emissions regulations Mandatory CO 2 targets for vans and heavy duty vehicles Increases in fuel taxes Full internalization of external costs Eco-driving techniques Policies to reduce speed limits on freeways Spatial planning measures Packages of mobility management measures 3

4 Combined (life cycle) emissions, MtCO2e Results from scenario analysis 2,500 Total Combined (life cycle) GHG emissions (Sum All) Energy decarbonisation 2,000 Vehicle efficiency Demand reduction 1,500 Total for C5-a 1,000 Total for BAU-a 60% Reduction % Reduction % Reduction No silver bullet results indicate that both technological and demand reduction measures will be required 4

5 Impacts of GHG abatement measures on air pollutant emissions Significant reductions in particle emissions possible via deployment of GHG abatement measures Similar trend for NO x emissions 5

6 Impacts of abatement measures on air pollutant emissions Reductions in particle emissions due to technology and fuel-based GHG abatement measures Reductions in particle emissions due to demand management GHG abatement measures 6

7 Analyzing energy security impacts Semi-quantitative approach for scoping energy security impacts of abatement options developed Approach based on multi-criteria analysis Range of assessment criteria used to score each abatement option Currently uses a qualitative scoring methodology however, can be updated as quantitative data becomes available Proposed energy security assessment criteria for transportation Linkage between price of alternative energy source and price of oil Proportion of vehicle fleet able to use the fuel Fuel cost Susceptibility to supply disruptions Surplus supply capacity Resource concentration of energy source 7

8 Analyzing energy security impacts Multi-criteria analysis framework qualitative scoring of transportation sector emissions abatement options Framework is a starting point aim in future to replace qualitative scores with hard quantitative data for each criterion Abatement option Linkage to oil price (OCF) Proportion of current vehicle fleet able to use Fuel Cost Susceptibility to disruptions Surplus supply capacity Resource concentration of energy source Gasoline/diesel Liquefied petroleum gas Natural gas Biofuel blends and fungible types Pure non-fungible biofuel Hydrogen Electricity Energy demand reduction

9 Analyzing energy security impacts Initial scoping results indicates that demand reduction measures give greatest energy security benefits today Conducting the analysis for future years would give very different results Total score as % of possible score Rank Energy demand reduction 75% 1 Electricity 61% 2 Biofuel blends and fungible types 52% 3 Gasoline/diesel 50% 4 Pure non-fungible biofuel 36% 5 LPG 35% 6 Natural gas 23% 7 Hydrogen 23% 7 9

10 Conclusions To meet an 80% reduction in EU economy-wide emissions, reductions in GHG emissions of between 50% and 80% (against 1990 levels) are required from the transport sector No silver bullet both technological and behavioral measures will be required GHG abatement options also give reductions in air pollutant emissions demand reduction measures give biggest reductions in NO x and PM emissions Approach for analyzing energy security benefits/impacts of GHG abatement measures developed - reducing demand for energy gives greatest benefits More information and all project outputs are available at 10

11 Trade-offs between climate change, energy security, and wider sustainability issues: a European perspective TRB Environment and Energy Research Conference Sujith Kollamthodi AEA Technology plc sujith.kollamthodi@aeat.co.uk Tel:

Decarbonising the transport sector the role of biofuels. Ignacio Vazquez Larruscain DG Climate Action European Commission

Decarbonising the transport sector the role of biofuels Ignacio Vazquez Larruscain DG Climate Action European Commission Presentation overview GHG emission reduction goals to 2050 and the transport sector