CASE STUDY: RISK BASED APPROACH FOR THE DESIGN OF A TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE
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1 CASE STUDY: RISK BASED APPROACH FOR THE DESIGN OF A TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE Edmund Ang (Co-Author: Ray Christie Transport for NSW) Fire & Risk Engineer PhD Researcher AECOM Imperial College London
2 CONTENTS 1. Introduction to Risk Based Design 2. Challenges to the Adoption 3. Risk Based Design for Infrastructure 4. 7 Steps Process to Risk Based Design 5. Case Study: Rail Enclosure Structure 6. Summary [End] How What Why
3 INTRODUCTION TO RISK BASED DESIGN - Fire Safety Design - Prescriptive guidance - Performance based design - Risk Based Design Why? - Performance based - Probabilistic - Not a pass / fail design approach - Quantification of cost benefit - 1 in 1,000 or 1 in 10,000
4 CHALLENGES TO THE ADOPTION - Advantage over deterministic approach - Then why a lack of adoption? - Challenge 1: - Probabilistic analysis input = statistics - What goes in; what comes out - Collection, definition and applicability - Mutually agreed standardised collection ONRSR. Rail Safety Report 2015/16. [Online] data/assets/pdf_file/0017/18800/rail-safety-report Web-Digital.pdf
5 CHALLENGES TO THE ADOPTION - Challenge 2: - Probabilistic approach in design; a strength and weakness - Explicitly recognise events could occur, but with varying likelihood - Who decides what is acceptable to regulators? - Involvement from a state agency with legislative power
6 CHALLENGES TO THE ADOPTION - Challenge 3: - Cost benefit analysis - Integral to risk based approach - Accepted by policy makers - Still a challenging topic for fire safety - Public engagement and discussions Value of Statistical Life in NSW (VSL) $6,698,897 Value of Statistical Life Year (VSLY) *Based on a real discount rate of 4% over 40 years $325,434 BRE. Effectiveness of sprinklers in residential premises. [Online] Transport for NSW. Principles and Guidelines for Economic Appraisal of Transport Investment and Initiatives. TfNSW, March 2013.
7 RISK BASED DESIGN FOR INFRASTRUCTURE - Wider adoption in rail infrastructure - Australian Rail Safety National Law - So Far As Is Reasonably Practicable - Finite funding; physical constraints - Established risk framework - Acceptance criteria of the risk
8 RISK BASED DESIGN FOR INFRASTRUCTURE - Wider adoption in rail infrastructure - Australian Rail Safety National Law - So Far As Is Reasonably Practicable - Finite funding; physical constraints - Established risk framework - Acceptance criteria of the risk Wikipedia.. British Rail Class 378. [Online]
9 7 STEPS PROCESS TO RISK BASED DESIGN 1. Identify all credible scenarios 2. Constructing an event tree 3. Evaluation of probability 4. Evaluations of the consequences 5. Determining the risk level 6. Mitigation measures & cost benefit 7. Stakeholders engagement
10 CASE STUDY: RAIL ENCLOSURE STRUCTURE - Rail Enclosure Structure - Northern Sydney existing infrastructure - Short tunnel: 250 m - New works: Provision of fire hydrants - Review of current standards - A risk based approach needed
11 CASE STUDY: RAIL ENCLOSURE STRUCTURE Step 1: Identify All Credible Scenarios - Qualitative analysis to assess scenarios - Line side fire - Train fire - Arson - Equipment
12 CASE STUDY: RAIL ENCLOSURE STRUCTURE Step 2: Constructing an Event Tree - Event flow to consequences - Probabilistic analysis - Historical data - Account for uncertainty
13 CASE STUDY: RAIL ENCLOSURE STRUCTURE Step 3: Evaluation of Probability and Ranking - Probability of a series of events - Determine the consequence scenarios to model - Establishing ranking of likelihood (almost unprecedented) Fire Type Wind Condition Probability (a) Probability of major fire detraining in the RES (b) Probability of (a) and (b) Likelihood Ranking Per Figure 3 Arson Not adverse Adverse (1 in 156 years) (1 in 625 years) L6 L6 Equipment Not adverse (1 in 1,389 years) L6 failure Adverse (1 in 5,500 years) L6
14 CASE STUDY: RAIL ENCLOSURE STRUCTURE Step 4: Evaluation of the Consequences - Quantitative analysis of the credible cases - Understand the consequences for these events - Scenarios 1 2: Arson fire, windy not windy - Scenarios 3 4: Equipment fire, windy not windy - Sensitivity scenario: Arson fire, train near portal and windy - Determine minor and major injuries Fire Location Plan view of the RES Tunnel Portal
15 CASE STUDY: RAIL ENCLOSURE STRUCTURE Step 5: Determining Risk Level and Consequences - Benchmark against acceptance criteria - Lowest rank; BUT - Demonstrating SFAIRP - Often the missing step
16 CASE STUDY: RAIL ENCLOSURE STRUCTURE Step 6: Mitigating Measures and Cost Benefit Analysis - Establishing consequence cost - Consultation and consensus - A disproportionate (uncertainty) factor Impacted Areas No Fire Hydrants With Fire Hydrants Delay in Restoring Service in the RES 6 days 3 days Loss in Ticket Sales $94k per day $94k per day Material and Engineering Costs $100k per day $100k per day Other costs (legal, management and reputational) Factor of 3 Factor of 2 Total Indicative Consequences Costs $3.49m $1.16m Indicative Disproportionate Factor (2 to 5) $6.98m to $17.45m $2.32m to $5.8m
17 CASE STUDY: RAIL ENCLOSURE STRUCTURE Step 6: Mitigating Measures and Cost Benefit Analysis - Cost for mitigation measure x probability - Cost benefit analysis and mitigation measure quantified - Results are sensitive to uncertainty (consultation is important) Variables Description Total cost for providing the fire hydrant $1.32m Probability of an arson escalating into a major fire within the RES (no wind) 1 in 156 years or Consequences cost for omitting the fire hydrant system $6.98m to $17.45m Consequences cost for providing the fire hydrant system $2.32m to $5.8m Design life of the fire hydrant system 30 years With Fire Hydrant No Fire Hydrant Consequence cost with the probability of the event factored in ($2.32m to $5.8m) x = ($6.98 to $17.45m) x = $0.014m to $0.037m per year $0.044m to $0.11m per year Consequences cost over 30 years (design life of a typical fire hydrant) $0.014m to $0.037m per year over 30 years = $0.044m to $0.11m per year over 30 years = $0.42m to $1.11m + $1.32m (hydrant) = $1.32m to $3.3m + 0 (no hydrant) = $1.74m to $2.43m $1.32m to $3.3m Net positive or negative cost (negative = mitigation measure not effective) $0.42m to $0.87m
18 CASE STUDY: RAIL ENCLOSURE STRUCTURE Step 7: Consultation with the Stakeholders - Active consultation in all steps - Mitigates against uncertain or marginal outcomes - Feedback loop into whole design process Meacham, B. J. A risk informed performance based approach to building regulation. [Online]
19 SUMMARY [END] - Quantitatively demonstrates why one over another measure is adopted - Other real world design considerations: - Open gangways in trains? - Keep passengers on train or detrain? - Enforce sprinklers in low rise residential? - Demonstrates objectively the thought process to reach a conclusion - A fair and equitable outcome
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