STRIVING FOR SYSTEM CHANGE: SETTING OBJECTIVES AND MEASURING RESPONSE

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1 STRIVING FOR SYSTEM CHANGE: SETTING OBJECTIVES AND MEASURING RESPONSE July 25, 2014 Denise Reed Chief Scientist

2 WHAT DO WE WANT TO ACHIEVE? Healthy ecosystem? Sustain productive and diverse fish and wildlife habitats Protection of estuarine fish, estuarine fish habitat, and other important ecosystem attributes or public trust resources Improve statewide water supply reliability, and protect and restore a vibrant and healthy Delta ecosystem, all in a manner that preserves, protects and enhances the unique agricultural, cultural, and recreational characteristics of the Delta Protection from flooding and to secure a sufficient supply of freshwater for the generations ahead

3 WHAT DO WE WANT TO ACHIEVE? Sustain productive and diverse fish and wildlife habitats Protection of estuarine fish, estuarine fish habitat, and other important ecosystem attributes or public trust resources Water Code section 85086, contained in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta Reform Act of 2009 (Stats (7th Ex. Sess.) ch. 5) (commencing with Wat. Code, 85000), requires the State Water Resources Control Board (State Water Board) to develop, within nine months of enactment of the statute, new flow criteria for the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta (Delta) ecosystem that are necessary to protect public trust resources.

4 WHAT DO WE WANT TO ACHIEVE? Improve statewide water supply reliability, and protect and restore a vibrant and healthy Delta ecosystem, all in a manner that preserves, protects and enhances the unique agricultural, cultural, and recreational characteristics of the Delta Protection from flooding and to secure a sufficient supply of freshwater for the generations ahead

5 SETTING OBJECTIVES What is the problem we are trying to solve? What are the other components of the system : Are they in conflict? Are there synergies? What are the trends? Are our current objectives even viable in the future? What do we need to know? What is knowable in what timeframe?

6 WHAT IS THE PROBLEM WE ARE TRYING TO SOLVE Puget Sound Nearshore Ecosystem Restoration Program

7 The Puget Sound Nearshore The estuarine delta & marine shoreline areas of shallow water from the top of the coastal bank or bluffs to water at depths associated w/ photic zone

8 Fundamental Hypotheses Natural processes creates structure; Structure produces habitat; Functioning habitat supports biological communities structure function process

9 Change Analysis Historic Closed Lagoon/ Marsh VS. Current

10 WHAT IS THE PROBLEM? A stronger connection is needed between physical alterations, implications of these alterations, and changes to goods and services. need to have strong connections between the physical alterations we have documented and both the ecological implications of these changes (..the so what factor) and changes to ecosystem goods and services. Several issues hamper our ability to make these connections, however.. lack strong data on these connections. many goods and services of Puget Sound s nearshore ecosystems depend upon other parts of Puget Sound.

11 WHAT ARE THE OTHER COMPONENTS OF THE SYSTEM? Conflict or synergy?

12 SWEET SPOT?

13 WHAT ARE THE TRENDS? If the system changes, does management change?

14 DECADES OF MANAGING DELTA OUTFLOW X2 was viewed as a variable that could be measured with greater accuracy and precision than alternative habitat indicators such as net freshwater inflow into the estuary. Now we have 3D hydrodynamic models 2014 After 20 years we are still using the same approach to flow management Invasive species SLR/climate change WQ changes Two decades of management have produced?

15 WHAT IS KNOWABLE? Moving the system to a new state.

16 THE REAL PROBLEM What decision should I make? That depends on what you want to achieve.

17 THANK YOU Please visit us at: Follow The Water Institute of the Gulf