State of knowledge in the scenarios of the Global Biodiversity Outlook. Rob Alkemade
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1 State of knowledge in the scenarios of the Global Biodiversity Outlook Rob Alkemade
2 Fourth Global Biodiversity Outlook: Mid-term evaluation of Aichi targets State and trends of biodiversity Review of national reports on NBSAP s Scenario analysis for achieving Aichi targets and the long term vision To be published by CBD: autumn 2014 (COP) 2 May 29 Rob Alkemade; Trondheim conference
3 Synthesis of scenarios for the GBO4 Consortium DIVERSITAS The Fisheries Centre of University of British Columbia UNEP/World Conservation and Monitoring Centre PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency Contributors: FAO, Experts from various institutes, NGO s, sectors 3 May 29 Rob Alkemade; Trondheim conference
4 Questions to address 1. Are we currently on a path to meet the Aichi 2020 Targets? 2. If the Aichi Targets are reached, what are the effects on biodiversity and ecosystem services? 3. Is the 2050 Vision attainable under plausible socioeconomic scenarios? 4. To what extent would achieving the Aichi Targets help reach the 2050 Vision? 5. What are the tradeoffs and synergies between the Aichi Targets? 6. What is the contribution of meeting the Aichi Targets and the 2050 Vision to the Millennium Development Goals? 4 May 29 Rob Alkemade; Trondheim conference
5 Review existing scenarios: update of GBO3 IPCC scenarios (RCPs) fifth Global Environmental Outlook OECD environmental outlook for 2050 Regional assessments (e.g. UK) FAO assessments for different sectors Scenarios for Rio+20 conference Peer reviewed literature (Leadley et al., 2010; Pereira et al., 2010 in Science) 5 May 29 Rob Alkemade; Trondheim conference
6 Global challenges 6 May 29 Rob Alkemade; Trondheim conference
7 7 May 29 Rob Alkemade; Trondheim conference
8 Achieving multiple MDG targets 8 May 29 Rob Alkemade; Trondheim conference
9 Pathways to achieve the 2050 targets Global Technology Focus on large-scale technologically optimal solutions: intensive agriculture and a high level of international coordination. Sustainability: sparing Decentralized Solutions Consumption Change Focus on decentralized solutions: local energy production; agriculture that is interwoven with natural corridors and national policies that regulate equitable access to food. Sustainability: sharing Focus on changes in human consumption patterns: limiting meat intake per capita; reduce waste in the agricultural production chain; less energy-intensive lifestyle. Sustainability: waste reduction and changing consumption 9 May 29 Rob Alkemade; Trondheim conference
10 Meeting biodiversity targets in three pathways 10 May 29 Rob Alkemade; Trondheim conference
11 Example: target 11 Target 11: By 2020, at least 17% of terrestrial and inland water, and 10% of coastal and marine areas [ ] are conserved through effective management State and trend Short term extrapolation Achieving the target Long term consequences for biodiversity 11 May 29 Rob Alkemade; Trondheim conference
12 Target 11: protected areas Current trend 12 May 29 Rob Alkemade; Trondheim conference
13 Decentralised solutions Consumption Change Global technology 13 May 29 Rob Alkemade; Trondheim conference
14 Example: extrapolating Red List Index trends in Southern Africa Nicholson et al (PLoS ONE) 14 May 29 Rob Alkemade; Trondheim conference
15 1 Ben ten Brink COP10 side event
16 (Preliminary) conclusions Meeting the 2020 Aichi targets contribute substantially to slowing down degradation of ecosystems and biodiversity Most scenarios, however, project continuing degradation of ecosystems and biodiversity Pressures to biodiversity are most strongly related to agriculture, forestry, water management, fisheries and energy Reducing pressures need these sectors in search for mutual benefits 16 May 29 Rob Alkemade; Trondheim conference
17 Lunch meeting Scenarios for the GBO4 Time: 12:00 13:00 Place: Space 3 (meeting room) Thank you! 17 May 29 Rob Alkemade; Trondheim conference
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Item 4.8 of the Agenda AFWC/EFC/NEFC COMMITTEE ON MEDITERRANEAN FORESTRY QUESTIONS - SILVA MEDITERRANEA TWENTY-SECOND SESSION AGADIR, MOROCCO, 22 MARCH 2012 THE AGADIR COMMITMENT TOWARDS A MEDITERRANEAN