Optimization Model for Energy Planning With CO 2 Emission Consideration

Transcription

1 A Multi-period Optimization Model for Energy Planning With CO 2 Emission Consideration By: Hamid-Reza Mirza Supervisors: Ali Elkamel, Peter Douglas, Eric Croiset

2 Presentation Outline Introduction Research Objectives Model Description Future Work Closing Remarks 1

3 Existing Supply Mix In Ontario Coal Gas/Oil Nuclear Renewable Hydroelectric Wind Biomass Source: OPA Supply Mix Advice,

4 Existing Supply Mix In Ontario Coal Gas/Oil Nuclear Renewable Hydroelectric Wind Biomass Source: OPA Supply Mix Advice,

5 Existing Supply Mix In Ontario Coal Gas/Oil Nuclear Renewable Hydroelectric Wind Biomass Source: OPA Supply Mix Advice,

6 Existing Supply Mix In Ontario Coal Gas/Oil Nuclear Renewable Hydroelectric Wind Biomass Source: OPA Supply Mix Advice,

7 Existing Supply Mix In Ontario Coal Gas/Oil Nuclear Renewable Hydroelectric Wind Biomass Source: OPA Supply Mix Advice,

8 Ontario s s Capacity & Demand cont COAL EXISTING NUCLEAR EXISTING NATURAL GAS & OIL EXISTING RENEWABLES DEMAND Coal MW Nuclear Natural Gas & Oil Renewable Source: OPA Supply Mix Advice,

9 Canada s s GHG Emissions 2003 emissions 740 Mt or 24% above Baseline 596 Mt Kyoto Target: 6% below 1990 baseline 560 Mt Source: Environment Canada,

10 Research Objective Taking into account time dependent parameters, such as future electricity demand and fuel price fluctuations, what is the optimal mix of electricity supply sources needed to: satisfy electricity demand each year while meeting CO 2 emission targets at minimum cost 5

11 The Pyramid Information Flow Tools Region planning GAMS (LP, NLP, MIP,MINLP) Decisions Models System Scheduling Process integration/optimization GAMS (MILP, MINLP) Aspen (NLP) Unit design/modelling Fortran, Matlab, Aspen (NLP) 6

12 Current Work Current work involves development of a deterministic multi-period planning model that will is implemented in GAMS. The model will take into account several time dependent parameters and variables that may change over time. 7

13 Power Generating Options Existing Power Stations The model considers the option to: Fuel Balance Fuel-Switch Carbon Capture & Storag 8

14 CO2 Storage in Ontario MANATOBA ONTARIO QUEBEC Two potential reservoirs = Lake Huron and Lake Erie Atikokan (211 MW) Thunder Bay (360 MW) Lake Huron Lambton (1,948 MW) Lakeview (1,148 MW) Nanticoke (3,920 MW) Lake Erie Lennox (2,100 MW) Economic estimates (Shafeen, Croiset, Douglas, 2003) 9

15 Power Generating Options cont New Power Plants The power generating technologies considered are: Pulverized coal (PC) + CCS Natural Gas Combined Cycle (NGCC) + CCS Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle (IGCC) + CCS New Nuclear 10

16 Model Inputs Forecasted energy demand Fixed O&M cost Variable O&M cost Fuel price fluctuations Capital cost of new plants Construction lead time Energy conservation initiatives Annual CO 2 emission targets Cost carbon capture and storage Annual budget (if specified) Cost of CO 2 credits Source: Electricity Energy OPA Supply Future Demand Mix, Project, 2005 in Ontario, National ICF Energy Consulting Board 11

17 Objective Function OF = i F j t F F ijt C F ij ijt + i NF Fixed O& M cos t of existing power plants t F NF it C NF i NF it + i F j l t V F ijt F ijlt P lt + i NF l t V VariableO& M cos t of existing power plants NF it NF ilt P lt + i F j l t U F ij F ijlt Fuel cos t for fossil fuel plants jt G P lt + new new new new new R + it it Sit C + i it Fit C + i it i F t i new P t i new P t retrofit cos t for fuel switching capital cost for new power plant Fixed O& M cost of new power plant new new Vit ilt Plt new i P l t VariableO& M cost of new power plant + new new UitGi ilt P + lt ( ) t ( CCost) + t new i P l t t Fuel cos t for new power plant Cost of purchasin g CO2 emissioncredits F new Qi ( CO2) ε ij ikt ijktp + lt Qi ( CO2) ε i ikt ilt P ijlt lt i F j k l t new i cap P l t Carboncaptureand storagecost for existing power plants Carboncaptureand storagecos t for new power plants i : POWER PLANT j : FUEL (COAL/ NG) k : CAPTURE PROCESS l : LOAD (BASE/PEAK) t: TIME (years)

18 Model Output Output data from each boiler: Energy production for each year CO 2 Emissions for each year Whether Carbon Capture should be put online, and in which year What type of Carbon Capture technology to install CO2 storage site Whether fuel-switching should be implemented, and in which year Year in which construction of new power plant should commence Annual expenditure for entire fleet Annual Cost of Electricity (COE) Annual out-of-province imports 13

19 Model Statistics Current Model Previous Model (Haslenda s ) SINGLE EQUATIONS: 42,204 SINGLE SINGLE VARIABLES: 25,526EQUATIONS: 1,325 DISCRETE VARIABLES : 9,950 GENERATION TIME = 26 Hours SINGLE VARIABLES: 706 DISCRETE VARIABLES: 265 GENERATION TIME = SEC 14

20 Summary A deterministic multi-period model has been developed for energy planning Model finds the optimal mix of electricity supply sources needed to satisfy electricity demand each year, while meeting CO2 emission targets, at a minimum cost Model takes into account several timedepending variables and parameters 15

21 Future Work Examine other case studies Consider additional pollutants (NOx, SO 2, Hg) Extend the current deterministic model into a stochastic formulation CCS pipeline network optimization 16

22 Closing Remarks Research supervisors: Eric Croiset Peter Douglas Ali Elkamel Financial support: Ontario Power Generation (OPG) NRCan NSREC 17

23 End of Presentation QUESTIONS & ANSWERS 21