STEPS TOWARDS SETTING PIGOUVIAN TAX RATES

Transcription

1 STEPS TOWARDS SETTING PIGOUVIAN TAX RATES Presentation at the 16 th Global Conference on Environmental Taxation, Sydney, Nils Axel Braathen, OECD Environment Directorate

2 Introduction Textbooks in environmental economics suggest internalising environmental externalities through Pigouvian tax rates i.e. using tax rates that reflect the marginal external costs to society. In practical policy making, this is easier said than done e.g. due to a lack of knowledge about the magnitude of these marginal social costs. There will always be gaps to fill in this regard, but OECD [and others!] is currently doing several pieces of work that should allow some further steps to be taken. 2

3 The Cost of Air Pollution This 2014 book combined estimates of mortalities caused by outdoor air pollution from the 2010 GBD study with VSL figures based on an OECD metaanalysis of VSL estimates. Outdoor air pollution cost OECD countries alone almost USD 1.6 trillion in 2010; China USD 1.3 trillion and India USD 0.5 trillion. Somewhat lower 2013 GDB mortality estimates have just been published, but the cost in OECD countries nevertheless were USD 1.5 trillion. VSL in China has been increased 15%. A very recent study by KCL indicates that NO 2 cause more mortalities (in London, UK) than what PM 2.5 does. 3

4 The Cost of Air Pollution For setting Pigouvian tax rates it is necessary to know how much each of the taxable goods or services contributes at the margin to the total air pollution costs. This requires information about how much of the pollution is caused per litre of transport fuels; per tonne of different fuels used per kwh of electricity generated; etc. The book estimated that on average in OECD countries, road transport caused approximately 50% of the air pollution. Estimates for individual countries are lacking, as earlier indications on the shares of different pollution sources in total emissions have not been updated. 4

5 Social costs of morbidity impacts of outdoor air pollution I The Cost of Air Pollution added 10% to reflect social costs of morbidity impacts of outdoor air pollution. An upcoming OECD ENV WKP will provide a more in-depth discussion of morbidity costs of outdoor air pollution, but confirms the order of magnitude we used. The greatest impacts are from increased mortality in adults due to long-term exposure to outdoor PM, but PM and ozone also cause a wide range of less serious health outcomes. 5

6 Social costs of morbidity impacts of outdoor air pollution II Suggested the following pollutant and health end-pointes combinations: Chronic bronchitis; PM Hospital admissions (Respiratory & Cardiovascular); PM and ozone Work-loss days; PM and ozone Restricted activity days; PM and ozone Acute lower respiratory infections in children aged less than 5 years; PM Acute bronchitis in children older than 6 years; PM 6

7 Social costs of morbidity impacts of outdoor air pollution III The unit values include three components: Resource costs (avertive expenditures and mitigating expenditures), Opportunity costs (costs related to loss of productivity and/or leisure time) as well as Disutility costs (pain, suffering, discomfort and anxiety). 7

8 Social costs of morbidity impacts of outdoor air pollution IV Central unit Range (lower Health end-point value higher) Cases of chronic bronchitis Hospital admission cases Work loss days Country-specific Country-specific Restricted activity days (RAD) & Minor restricted activity days (MRAD) RAD: 170 MRAD: 62 RAD: MRAD: Acute lower respiratory infections in children aged < 5 years Acute bronchitis in children

9 Monetary carbon values in policy appraisal Many projects and public policies in various sectors can have large impacts on GHG emissions. It is thus important how countries take these impacts into account in their assessments, ex ante and ex post. This is of direct relevance for any attempts to set Pigouvian tax rates in relation to energy use and transport. An upcoming OECD ENV WKP will discuss approaches which can be used to value changes in GHG emissions in policy and project appraisals and present a survey of current practice in OECD countries. 9

10 Summary of questionnaire responses Are there clear criteria for how to include GHG emission changes in CBAs? What is the share of cases where impacts on GHG emissions have been part of the CBAs? What is the unweighted average of the monetary carbon values that have been reported -- in USD in 2014 money value? Transport investments Energy investments New policy assessments Ex post assessments Absolute % / Obs Absolute % / Obs Absolute % / Obs Absolute % / Obs Yes 12 63% 6 40% 4 24% 2 13% No 7 37% 9 60% 13 76% 13 87% All 1 6% 1 7% 1 7% 0 0% Most 7 41% 3 21% 2 14% 2 20% Some 2 12% 4 29% 1 7% 0 0% A few 3 18% 1 7% 3 21% 1 10% Not known 2 12% 2 14% 5 36% 3 30% None 2 12% 3 21% 2 14% 4 40%

11 Cost-benefit analyses and the environment In 2006, OECD published Cost-Benefit Analyses and the Environment: Recent Developments. The book has been one of the best-sellers of OECD ENV but much relevant work has been done since then. It has therefore been decided to update the book. Preparing for that, one upcoming OECD ENV WKP will provide a general overview of work by non-oecd authors in this area, while another one will provide a similar review, but focusing on new contributions that address how to include impacts on biodiversity and ecosystem services in CBAs. 11

12 Taxing Energy Use Taxing Energy Use: A Graphical Analysis (2013) Systematically described taxes on all energy use in OECD countries Analysed tax patterns for different fuels & users Taxing Energy Use 2015: OECD and Selected Partner Economies Cross-country analysis for 41 countries Detailed country chapters for Argentina, Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Russia & South Africa Country chapters & graphical profiles of energy use & taxation 12

13 DEU CAN FRA KOR Source Taxing Energy Use 2015: OECD & Selected Partner Economies (OECD, 2015) Rest of OECD BRA IDN ZAF ARG World energy use % of world energy use 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% OECD SPE USA JPN World energy CHN use IND Rest RUS of world Rest of world Total energy use (EJs)

14 CHE NLD DNK SWE ITA GBR FRA DEU JPN =>ARG KOR AUS CHL =>ZAF USA =>CHN => IND MEX =>BRA =>RUS => IDN Effective tax rates on CO₂ from different energy sources Oil products Coal Natural gas Combustibles, biofuels & waste Economy-wide Size of bubbles represents each fuel s share in total emissions from energy use Tax rate (EUR per tonne CO 2 )

15 Further information