Biological Solutions to Climate Change: An Energy Systems Perspective

Transcription

1 Biological Solutions to Climate Change: An Energy Systems Perspective David B. Layzell, PhD, FRSC, Professor Director, Canadian Energy Systems Analysis Research (CESAR) Initiative, University of Calgary, Calgary, Alberta special thanks to Chris Stone & Ralph Torrie for assistance with the Sankey Diagrams

2 Biological Systems: Managing Global Climate for over 500 M yrs High = cooling Sun s shortwave radiation Infra-red long wave radiation (low heating) Albedo Reflected shortwave radiation Sun s shortwave radiation Low = warming Infra-red long wave radiation (more heating) Reflected shortwave radiation GHG management CO 2 CH 4 N 2 O (Absorbs long wave radiation) Clouds Ocean biology Cloudless sky C held in Dead Biomass Snow Deserts Vegetation Vegetation (esp conifers) Coal Oil Nat l Gas

3 Canada s Green Advantage Sun C sink Photosynthesis CO 2 (N 2 O & CH 4 ) Metabolism, Fire, Harvest & Decay Human-induced Emissions Reduce (N 2 O & CH 4 ) Biosphere C Stocks Carbon Cycle REDUCE Landfill & Agriculture Emissions Bio-based energy, chemicals and materials REMOVE CO 2 to biosphere Fossil Fuels REPLACE fossil fuels with biomass

4 Biological Solutions 1. N 2 O and CH 4 emission reductions N 2 O, CH 4 2. Soil carbon sinks: 3. Forest carbon sinks Problem (Mt CO 2 e/yr) Landfills: -22 Crops/Soils: -30 Animals: -24 Wetlands: to +88 Potential (Mt CO 2 e/yr) Up to 40 Up to 30+? Up to 70+? Example Strategies q Improved landfill, manure, fertilizer, wetland & animal prod n mgmt/technol. q Reduced tillage, q New Crops q Biochar q Pasture mgmt q Improved silvaculture, pest & fire control q New genotypes

5 Biological Solutions 4. Heat and power 5. Transportation fuels 6. Bio-Products From Peak oil Blog 2008 Problem (Mt CO 2 e/yr) Power Gen: -101 Transportation: -199 Metal: -17 Cement: Potential (Mt CO 2 e/yr) Up to 70? Up to 50? 5? Example Strategies q Replace coal for power gen, or in cement making q Supplement / replace gasoline or diesel with biofuels q Replace steel and cement with wood in construction

6 Cycles of Interest & Investment in Biological Solutions to Climate Change Forest & Agric l C Sinks seen as central to Canada meeting its Kyoto commitment Plans for Emission Trading Many R,D&D initiatives funded KYOTO Protocol Interest in Cdn energy strategy & systems level approaches Obama renews commitment to CC action Melting arctic & severe weather Fossil fuel recovery & pipeline projects lack Public License High cost for CCS ($150+/tCO 2 ) Forest fires & Mtn Pine Beetle make Canada s forests a C source Concerns about validity / verification of offset projects Change in Fed. Gov t CC policies Canada Abandons Kyoto Protocol Focus on geol. CCS research & deployment What do Canadian energy systems look like? What is the current role for bioenergy/biofuels?

7 Primary Energy Sources" Oil" Gas" Coal" Canada s Energy Systems Import" Uranium" Hydro" Bio" Crude oil! Gasoline! Diesel! Pipelined Natural Gas! Uranium oxide & Fuel pellets! (2010) Export" CANADA S! ENERGY INDUSTRIES! Wood, Ethanol, Biodiesel! Electricity! NOTE: ü Net export: ~50+% of 1 o energy supply ü Biomass: 2.7% of 1 o energy supply Demand"

8 Canada s Energy Systems Cdn Domestic Energy Systems (2010) Import" Export" Demand" Primary Energy Sources" Oil" Gas" Primary Energy Sources" Coal" Oil" Gas" Uranium" Coal" Hydro" Bio" Uranium" Hydro" Bio" Canada exports ~50% of its primary energy production Demand" Service " Delivered" Conversion Loss"

9 Cdn Domestic Energy Systems (2010) CANADA S ENERGY INDUSTRIES! Demand" PJ/yr Primary Energy Sources" Power Oil" Gas" Coal" Uranium" Hydro" Bio" Gasoline! Diesel! Natural Gas! Wood, biofuels! Elect-! ricity! Non-Energy Mobility" Residences" Supply Chain" Buildings" Industry" 5.7% of domestic primary energy supply Equivalent to ~39 Mt dry biomass/yr Service " Delivered" Conversion Loss" Mobility Residences Biomass: (693 PJ/yr) Supply Chain Industry (mostly forestry sector) Conv. Loss

10 Cdn Domestic Energy Systems (2010) Domestic GHG Emissions (Mt CO 2 e/yr) Demand" Primary Energy Sources" Oil" Gas" Coal" Uranium" Hydro" Bio" Export Export (Power) Non-Energy Mobility" Residences" Supply Chain" Buildings" Industry" Energy Demand: 336 Service " Delivered" Conversion Loss" + Nonenergy GHG emissions 54 Industry Agriculture 56 Waste 22 ~100 Land use, land use change & forestry = Total GHG Emissions: ~800 Mt CO 2 e/yr To address climate change, Cdn GHG emissions must be reduced by 520 to 640 Mt CO 2 e/yr by mid century.

11 Message #1: Go big or go home. We have a 500+ Mt/yr GHG problem solutions that are less than 1Mt/yr are not climate change solutions.

12 Message #2: We have the bio-resource potential

13 Potential for Bioenergy 700 Approx. equal to all 1 o energy used domestically in Canada Bioenergy Potential - Mt(dry) biomass/yr Aggressive Estimate for biomass potential for energy Conser -vative Biomass Crops Silviculture/ Forest Mgmt Pest/Disease Residue Fire Residue Unused AAC Forest Harvest Residues Mill Residues Crop Residues Manure MSW Current Forestry & Agriculture Production (165 Mt/yr) Corn Hay Wheat Que BC Agriculture Forestry Existing bioenergy (~5.7% Ttl energy) At 130 Mt(dry)/yr, bioenergy could provide: ü 2000 PJ/yr (~1M boe/d) ü Reduce GHG by ~130 Mt CO 2 e/yr How much?

14 Message #3: We need to enhance the value of our bio-resources.

15 The Price of Energy The Price of Energy ( ) Also Consider Energy Price ($/GJ) $60-100/boe $3-$7/GJ $ /GJ $50-200/dry t $ /dry t $50-100/MWh $ /L q The efficiency and cost of converting feedstocks to energy commodity; q The quality / ease of use of the energy commodity; q The life cycle carbon benefit of the bioresource Ø Depends on carbon price Ø Typically <$3/GJ benefit Oil Gas Coal Wellhead or Mine Face Wood/Straw Corn Forest Rd or Farm Gate Electricity Gasoline Diesel Biodiesel Energy Commodity Ethanol Strategies for enhancing the Bioresource value?

16 Strategies for Enhancing the Bio-Resource Value. 1. Price on Carbon 2. Regulation Ø e.g. fuel standards 3. Enhance the Value Chain: Examples: Ø Biomass waste to energy or C sinks Ø Water treatment + C sink / energy resource Ø?? CO 2 Biomass Recycle Produced Water Containing Organics CO 2 CO 2 Energy oil sands in situ production oil sands mining (tailings) tight oil / gas fracking water Biochar Activated C Biochar (ACB) Spent AC C sink Adsorption Cleaner Water See Poster by Veksha et al. 2013

17 Strategies for Enhancing the Bio-Resource Value. 4. Partner rather than Compete ü The existing energy industry has the resources, scale of operations and the need for cleaner technologies. ü Rather than working to take market share away from the industry, find ways to help the industry reduce their C, water or biodiversity footprint. ü The energy industry will pay more for GHG solutions that are inside their fence than for offsets to meet regulatory requirements.

18 Message #4: Will the Atmosphere Notice?

19 Can you PROVE that the Atmosphere Noticed? Verification (with minimal transaction costs): a challenge for offsets from non-energy emission reductions or C sinks Permanence: the risk that emission removals by sinks are reversed, because forests are cut down or destroyed by natural disaster What happens when neither the buyer nor the seller are deeply invested in whether the activity is real? Leakage: the increase in emissions outside the project boundary that occurs as a consequence of the implementation of the project q Buyer: regulatory compliance q Seller: financial compensation. Who in the transaction is looking out for the interests of the atmosphere?

20 Message #5: Plan for Unintended Consequences

21 Unintended Consequences A common problem in the energy sector, given the scale of the industry and its expanding geographical distribution. We need to learn from the past mistakes of other industry sectors, and get in front of problems before they undermine the public license to operate. For the Emerging Bioeconomy: 1. Food Price / Availability 2. Water 3. Land use / Biodiversity 4. Albedo See poster by Sara Goto 5. Byproduct streams Investors and regulators need to foresee possible problems and address them early.

22 Summary of Key Messages 1. Go big or go home. 2. We have the bio-resource potential. 3. We need to enhance the value of our bio-resources. 4. Will the atmosphere notice? 5. Plan for unintended consequences. Thank you