aka the basin study Eric Kuhn General Manager 2013 Upper Colorado River Basin Water Conference Colorado Mesa University November 7, 2013

Transcription

1 aka the basin study 2013 Upper Colorado River Basin Water Conference Colorado Mesa University November 7, 2013 Eric Kuhn General Manager

2 THE STORYLINE OF THE COLORADO RIVER: Limited Supplies Competing & Growing Demands Overarching Compacts

3 Big River Rules of the Game 1922 Colorado River Compact - allocated water among the 7 Colorado River Basin States Dividing Line at Lee Ferry (just below Glen Canyon Dam and Lake Powell) Four Upper Division States CO, WY, UT, NM Three Lower Division States CA, AZ, NV

4 Colorado River Basin Today Seven Basin States Almost 300,000 square miles 35 million people and growing Up to 5.5 million irrigated acres 15 Million acre-feet of supply 10 autonomous / sovereign Tribes 2 countries

5 Colorado River Basin Tomorrow Seven Basin States Almost 300,000 square miles million people ( of ~90%) million irrigated acres ( of ~15%) million acre-feet of supply ( of 9-10%) 10 autonomous / sovereign Tribes 2 countries

6 ~90% of the people ~90% of the water

7 Planning for the Future Colorado River Water Supply and Demand Study aka the Basin Study Cooperative scenario-based planning study Co-sponsored by US Bureau of Reclamation and 7-basin states Over ~$4 Million; ~3 years; released to public on 12/12/12

8 Quantification of Water Supply Scenarios Projections of Average Natural Flow at Lees Ferry 102 Traces 1244 Traces 1000 Traces 112 Traces Observed Mean = Direct Paleo Mean = Paleo Conditioned Mean= Climate Projections Mean = ,000 20,000 20,000 20,000 18,000 18,000 18,000 18,000 16,000 16,000 16,000 16,000 14,000 14,000 14,000 14,000 12,000 12,000 12,000 12,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 8,000 8,000 8,000 8, ave. = 13.7 MAF KEY: Box shows 25 th - 75 th percentile Whiskers show min and max Triangle shows mean of all traces

9 KAF Tribal Tribal Tribal MAF MAF MAF MAF Municipal and Industrial MAF Municipal and Industrial Municipal and Industrial MAF MAF MAF MAF Agricultural Agricultural Agricultural Million Acre-Feet (MAF) Colorado River Demand Nevada California Utah UPPER BASIN LOWER BASIN Arizona Wyoming Colorado New Mexico Water Demand Quantification Results Parameters driving demands: population, per capita water use and irrigated acreage. Changes from 2015 to 2060: Population from about 40 million by 23% (49 million) to 91% (77 million) Per capita water use by 7% to 19% Lower Basin Upper Basin Irrigated acreage from about 5.5 million acres by 6% (5.2 million) to15% (4.6 million) Current Projected (A) Rapid Growth (C1) Demand Legend Enhanced Environment (D1) Slow Growth (B) Rapid Growth (C2) Enhanced Environment (D2) Category Legend (Right) Agricultural Municipal and Industrial Energy Minerals Fish and Wildlife and Recreation Tribal

10 Colorado River Demand Agricultural Municipal and Industrial Energy Minerals Fish and Wildlife and Recreation Tribal Colorado River Demand Historical Consumptive Use Change in CO River Demand from 2015.

11 Colorado Demands by Scenario and Sector Colorado River Demand in Colorado

12 Projected Future Colorado River Basin Water Supply and Demand Average supplydemand imbalances by 2060 are approx. 3.2 million acre-feet This imbalance may be more or less depending on the nature of the particular supply and demand scenario Imbalances have occurred in the past and deliveries have been met due to reservoir storage

13 System Reliability Analysis Simulate the state of the system over the next 50 years for each scenario, with and without options and strategies Use metrics and vulnerabilities to quantify impacts to Basin resources Resource Categories Water Deliveries Electrical Power Resources Water Quality Flood Control Recreational Resources Ecological Resources

14 Bottom Line Summary Current basinwide demands (15.3 MAF/yr) outstrip supplies (14.9 MAF/yr) Current basinwide gap covered by storage; significant future actions needed Gap is greatest in Lower Basin; shortages are when, not if Gap in Upper Basin more uncertain; but shortage risk real: Chance of Curtailment > 0 in future

15 More Bottom Lines: For Upper Basin supply (hydrology) is most significant factor; For Lower Basin demand is most significant factor

16 Why Do We Care Solutions to these imbalances can and will directly affect the Upper Colorado River Basin Mitigation actions (increased development) can increase risk to historical (and future) users Ergo: others reward is our potential risk

17 Vulnerability: Lee Ferry Deficit

18 Strategies to Minimize Risk Conservation Augmentation Governance Water Development / New Supplies?

19 Augmentation Cloud seeding (aka weather modification) Non-native plant eradication / management Dust management / mitigation Smaller scale desalinization (coastal cities & brackish groundwater) Larger efforts on water re-use / recycling Imports from other basins (Mississippi & Snake) Large scale desalinization

20 Governance Market based approaches Interstate / Interbasin transfers (e.g., conservation with transfers aka regional water bank)? Enhancements to Law of the River?

21 Vulnerability: Lee Ferry Deficit with Option/Strategy Portfolios

22 Future and Related Efforts Basin Study workgroups Colorado-specific planning studies continue - Colorado River Water Availability Study (CRWAS) Phase II Refinement of vulnerability definitions for CO - Potential Risk Management Study Incorporate results into parallel efforts - Water Bank Workgroup HB-1177 IBCC Roundtable Process - Scenario planning

23 The Take Home More cooperation needed with urban / ag partnerships on both East & West Slopes, in Upper Basin and throughout entire basin Develop / enhance new re-use & conservation technologies Build new, and expand upon existing, cooperative efforts (including Roundtable process, State Water Planning efforts, etc) All parties will need to be engaged, informed, creative and flexible as we travel this path

24 Basin Study