Energy Access. The Ecosystems Analogy. Engineering Leadership Award Royal Academy of Engineering. Milan Delor

Transcription

1 Energy Access The Ecosystems Analogy Engineering Leadership Award Royal Academy of Engineering Milan Delor

2 Overview What is energy access? Why is it important? Current situation Action Ecosystems analogy

3 What is Energy Access? Guardian, 2012 Express, 2009 E4C, 2010 Electricity Grid Decentralised SAPS Lighting ICTs Cooling Modern Fuels Cheap and clean fuels Efficient stoves Cooking Heating Mechanical Power Human-powered Mechanised engines Water pumping Crop irrigation Harvesting Food processing

4 Energy Access Indices PAC, 2012

5 Total Energy Access PAC, 2012

6 Energy and the HDI The Watt, 2003

7 Energy Access and the MDGs HPI, 2005

8 The vicious circle

9 PAC, 2012

10 UN Recognition Sustainable Energy for All by 2030 Ensure universal access to modern energy services; Double the rate of improvement in energy efficiency; Double the share of renewable energy in the global energy mix.

11 Situation today 1.4 billion without electricity 3 billion without modern fuels

12 World distribution % without electricity UNDP & WHO, 2009

13 World distribution % without modern fuels UNDP & WHO, 2009

14 PAC, 2012 Projections - Electricity

15 PAC, 2012 Projections modern fuels

16 How do we move forward? Provision of energy services

17 Social vs. Environment Oxfam, 2012

18 Worried about CO 2? Achieving Total Energy Access = less than a 1% increase in global CO 2 emissions 50% of global carbon emissions are generated by 11% of people

19 Billion $/year Worried about money? $35-40bn/year required (UNIDO AGECC, IEA...) UK Defence budget? 40bn/year = $60bn/year US Defence budget? $680bn/year Universal Energy Access UK Defence Budget US Defence Budget

20 Worried about money? Guardian, 2012

21 The challenge (Brew-Hammond 2010) Variety of sources, technologies and scales Requires variety of actors involved Energy must be accessible (inc. affordable) to everyone Family cooking over three-stone fire sooner needs efficient cookstove than unaffordable grid connection

22 Multi-stakeholder problem WBCSD, 2012

23 Ecosystem Analogy Market players represented by species in an ecosystem Each specie has a specific function Species compete, collaborate, co-evolve, and adapt Recognises need for multiple, inter-related actors and systems Allows for systemic understanding of energy access sectors

24 PAC, 2012

25 Civil society campaign PAC, 2012

26 Prioritisation

27 Donor support pays for resource assessment study

28 Government, donors and communities share start-up costs

29 Firm trained by NGO installs equipment. Community arranges management with consumer association and local small enterprise

30 Shopkeeper pays for connection of house and shop. No money left for appliances

31 Microfinance helps him buy a computer and fridge

32 ...which need to be delivered to the remote village

33 Community households buy new items from shop Increased shop income - shopkeeper pays loan back

34 Bottom-up approach Natural ecosystems built from the bottom up Extrapolate to EA ecosystems: Appropriate technology Local civil involvement Microfinancing... come first for healthy ecosystems eg. William Kamkwamba Marine Genomics Europe, 2004

35 MPR, 2003 Applications Foreign (exotic) species can be invasive and dangerous for local ecosystems Raises questions on foreign intervention, especially major multinationals Technologies MUST be adapted

36 Health of ecosystems Healthy ecosystems are: Vigorous (productive) Robust (resilient to external shocks) Organised (diverse) Very similar to qualities looked for in business ecosystems Leads to sustainable, self-managed systems

37 Indicators Want to measure and rank countries EA ecosystem health How do we measure health? Eg. o Vigorous/productive ecosystems Return on invested capital? Value-added o Robust/resilient ecosystems Survival rates of ecosystem members (ex post) Value-added (ex ante)

38 Indicators

39 Indicators Results are compared to:

40 PAC, 2012 Results

41 Summary Energy access crucial for poverty alleviation Situation urgent:1.4 billion without electricity 3 billion without modern fuels Sustainable energy for all by 2030 Multi-dimensional problem need variety of scales, sources and technologies requires variety of actors Ecosystems analogy promising

42 Selected References Brew-Hammond, A. (2010). Energy access in Africa: Challenges ahead. Energy Policy 38(5): Costanza, R. (1992). Toward an operational definition of ecosystem health. Ecosystem health: new goals for environmental management. R. Costanza, B. G. Norton and B. Haskell. Island Press: Washington DC. Iansiti, M. and R. Levien (2004). Strategy as ecology. Harvard Business Review 82(3): Mageau, M. T., R. Costanza, et al. (1998). Quantifying the trends expected in developing ecosystems. Ecological Modelling 112(1): Moore, J. F. (1996). The death of competition: leadership and strategy in the age of business ecosystems, HarperBusiness. PracticalAction (2010). Poor People's Energy Outlook Rugby, UK. Tylecote, A. (2006). Twin innovation systems, intermediate technology and economic development: History and prospect for China. Innovation: management, policy & practice 8: Practical Action (2012). Poor People's Energy Outlook Rugby, UK Raworth, Kate (2012). A safe and just space for humanity. Oxfam International