4.4 GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS

Transcription

1 4.4 GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS INTRODUCTION This section discusses the existing global, national, and statewide conditions related to greenhouse gases (GHG) and global climate change and evaluates the potential impacts on global climate from the implementation of the VillaSport Athletic Club and Spa Project (proposed project). The section also provides a discussion of the applicable federal, state, regional, and local regulations to monitor and control GHG emissions. The following documents were used to prepare this section: City of Roseville General Plan 2035, as amended June 2016 (City of Roseville 2016) North Central Roseville Specific Plan, as amended December 2013 (City of Roseville 2013) North Central Roseville Specific Plan Environmental Impact Report (City of Roseville 1989) Air Quality Impact and Greenhouse Gas Analysis, VillaSport Athletic Club and Spa Project (July 2013, included as Appendix 4.2). The documents listed above are available for review during normal business hours (Monday through Friday 8 AM to 5 PM) at the City of Roseville Permit Center, 311 Vernon Street, Roseville, California The documents are also available on the City s website at: development_services/_planning/current_projects/villasport_athletic_club_n_spa.asp. No comment letters related to GHG emissions were received in response to the Notice of Preparation (NOP) ENVIRONMENTAL SETTING Background Global climate change refers to any significant change in climate measurements, such as temperature, precipitation, or wind, lasting for an extended period (i.e., decades or longer) (US EPA 2008). Climate change may result from: natural factors, such as changes in the sun s intensity or slow changes in the Earth s orbit around the sun; natural processes within the climate system (e.g., changes in ocean circulation, reduction in sunlight from the addition of GHG and other gases to the atmosphere from volcanic eruptions); or Impact Sciences, Inc VillaSport Athletic Club and Spa Draft EIR

2 human activities that change the atmosphere s composition (e.g., through burning fossil fuels) and the land surface (e.g., deforestation, reforestation, urbanization, desertification). The overall effect of global climate change has been a rise in the average global (land and ocean surface combined) temperature of 0.85 degree Celsius ( C) between 1880 and Climate change modeling shows that further warming is likely to occur, which would induce further changes in the global climate system during the current century (IPCC 2007). Changes to the global climate system and ecosystems, and to California, could include: declining sea ice and mountain snowpack levels, thereby increasing sea levels and sea surface evaporation rates with a corresponding increase in tropospheric water vapor due to the atmosphere s ability to hold more water vapor at higher temperatures (IPCC 2007); rising average global sea levels primarily due to thermal expansion and the melting of glaciers, ice caps, and the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets (model based projections of global average sea level rise at the end of the 21 st century [ ] range from 0.18 meter to 0.59 meter or 0.59 foot to 1.94 feet) (IPCC 2007); changing weather patterns, including changes to precipitation, ocean salinity, and wind patterns, and more energetic aspects of extreme weather including droughts, heavy precipitation, heat waves, extreme cold, and the intensity of tropical cyclones (IPCC 2007); Sierra snowpack levels declining a further 25 to 40 percent from their mid 20 th century average by 2050; increasing the number of days conducive to ozone formation by 25 to 85 percent (depending on the future temperature scenario) in high ozone areas located in the Southern California area and the San Joaquin Valley by the end of the 21 st century (Cal EPA 2006); increasing the potential for erosion of California s coastlines and sea water intrusion into the Sacramento and San Joaquin Delta and associated levee systems due to the rise in sea level; increasing pest infestation, making California more susceptible to forest fires; increasing the demand for electricity due to rising temperatures, coupled with an accompanying loss of transmission efficiency and hydropower generation capacity; and warming projections of 2 to 5 F by 2050 and 4 to 9 F by The natural process through which heat is retained in the troposphere 1 is called the greenhouse effect. The greenhouse effect traps heat in the troposphere through a threefold process as follows: (1) short wave radiation in the form of visible light emitted by the Sun is absorbed by the Earth as heat; (2) long wave radiation re emitted by the Earth; and (3) GHGs in the upper atmosphere absorbing or trapping the 1 The troposphere is the bottom layer of the atmosphere, which varies in height from the Earth s surface from 6 to 7 miles). Impact Sciences, Inc VillaSport Athletic Club and Spa Draft EIR

3 long wave radiation and re emitting it back towards the Earth and into space. This third process is the focus of current climate change actions. While water vapor and carbon dioxide (CO2) are the most abundant GHGs, other trace GHGs have a greater ability to absorb and re radiate long wave radiation. To gauge the potency of GHGs, scientists have established a Global Warming Potential (GWP) for each GHG based on its ability to absorb and re emit long wave radiation over a specific period. The GWP of a gas is determined using CO2 as the reference gas, which has a GWP of 1 over 100 years. 2 For example, a gas with a GWP of 10 is 10 times more potent than CO2 over 100 years. The use of GWP allows GHG emissions to be reported using CO2 as a baseline. The sum of each GHG multiplied by its associated GWP is referred to as carbon dioxide equivalents (CO2e). This essentially means that 1 metric ton of a GHG with a GWP of 10 has the same climate change impacts as 10 metric tons of CO2. Greenhouse Gases State law defines GHGs to include the following compounds: Carbon Dioxide (CO2). Carbon dioxide primarily is generated by fossil fuel combustion from stationary and mobile sources. Due to the emergence of industrial facilities and mobile sources over the past 250 years, the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has increased 40 percent (US EPA 2014). Carbon dioxide is the most widely emitted GHG and is the reference gas (GWP of 1) for determining the GWP of other GHGs. In 2012, 85 percent of California s GHG emissions were carbon dioxide. Methane (CH4). Methane is emitted from biogenic sources (i.e., resulting from the activity of living organisms), incomplete combustion in forest fires, landfills, manure management, and leaks in natural gas pipelines. In the United States, the top three sources of methane are landfills, natural gas systems, and enteric fermentation (US EPA n.d.[a]). Methane is the primary component of natural gas, which is used for space and water heating, steam production, and power generation. The GWP of methane is 21. Nitrous Oxide (N2O). Nitrous oxide is produced by natural and human related sources. Primary human related sources include agricultural soil management, animal manure management, sewage treatment, mobile and stationary combustion of fossil fuel, adipic acid production, and nitric acid production. The GWP of nitrous oxide is 310. Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs). HFCs typically are used as refrigerants in both stationary refrigeration and mobile air conditioning. The use of HFCs for cooling and foam blowing is growing particularly as the continued phase out of chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) and hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs) gains momentum. The GWP of HFCs ranges from 140 for HFC 152a to 6,300 for HFC 236fa. 2 All Global Warming Potentials are given as 100 year values. Impact Sciences, Inc VillaSport Athletic Club and Spa Draft EIR

4 Perfluorocarbons (PFCs). Perfluorocarbons are compounds consisting of carbon and fluorine. They are primarily created as a byproduct of aluminum production and semiconductor manufacturing. Perfluorocarbons are potent GHGs with a GWP several thousand times that of carbon dioxide, depending on the specific PFC. Another area of concern regarding PFCs is their long atmospheric lifetime (up to 50,000 years) (Energy Information Administration 2007). The GWPs of PFCs range from 5,700 to 11,900. Sulfur Hexafluoride (SF6). Sulfur hexafluoride is a colorless, odorless, nontoxic, nonflammable gas. It is most commonly used as an electrical insulator in high voltage equipment that transmits and distributes electricity. Sulfur hexafluoride is the most potent GHG that has been evaluated by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change with a GWP of 23,900. However, its global warming contribution is not as high as the GWP would indicate due to its low mixing ratio, as compared to carbon dioxide (4 parts per trillion [ppt] in 1990 versus 365 parts per million [ppm] of CO2) (US EPA n.d.[b]). Contributions to Greenhouse Gas Emissions Global Worldwide anthropogenic (manmade) GHG emissions are tracked for developed nations and nations with economies in transition (referred to as Annex I and Annex II) and developing nations (referred to as Non Annex I). Man made GHG emissions for Annex I and Annex II nations are available through The sum of these emissions totaled approximately 23,093 million metric tons of CO2 equivalents (MMTCO2e). 3 It should be noted that global emissions inventory data are not all from the same year and may vary depending on the source of the emissions inventory data. The top five countries (China, United States, Russian Federation, India, and Japan) and the European Union accounted for approximately 68 percent of the total global GHG emissions according to the most recently available data (See Table 4.4 1, Top Five GHG Producer Countries and the European Union [Annual]). The GHG emissions in more recent years may differ from the inventories presented in Table 4.4 1; however, the data is representative of currently available global inventory data. 3 The CO2 equivalent emissions commonly are expressed as million metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent (MMTCO2E). The carbon dioxide equivalent for a gas is derived by multiplying the tons of the gas by the associated GWP, such that MMTCO2E = (million metric tons of a GHG) x (GWP of the GHG). For example, the GWP for methane is 21. This means that the emission of one million metric tons of methane is equivalent to the emission of 21 million metric tons of CO2. Impact Sciences, Inc VillaSport Athletic Club and Spa Draft EIR

5 Table Top Five GHG Producer Countries and the European Union (Annual) Emitting Countries GHG Emissions (MMTCO2e) China 9,313 United States 5,123 European Union (EU), 27 Member States 3,611 India 1,722 Russian Federation 2,075 Japan 1,249 Total 23,093 Source: World Resources Institute, Climate Analysis Indicators Tool (CAIT), Excludes emissions and removals from land use, land use change, and forestry (LULUCF). United States As noted in Table 4.2 1, the United States was the number two producer of global GHG emissions. The primary GHG emitted by human activities in the United States was CO2, representing approximately 82 percent of total GHG emissions (US EPA 2014). Carbon dioxide from fossil fuel combustion, the largest source of CO2 emissions, accounted for approximately 78 percent of US CO2 emissions (US EPA 2014). State of California The California Air Resources Board (CARB) compiles GHG inventories for the State of California. Based on the current GHG inventory data (published June 2016), in 2014 California emitted MMTCO2e, including emissions resulting from imported electrical power (CARB 2016). The primary contributors to GHG emissions in California are transportation, electric power production from both in state and out of state sources, industry, agriculture and forestry, and other sources, which include commercial and residential activities. Table 4.2 2, GHG Emissions in California, provides a summary of GHG emissions reported in California in 1990 and 2012 separated by categories defined by the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Between 1990 and 2015, the population of California grew by approximately 9.3 million (from 29.8 to 39.1 million) (DOF 2005;DOF 2015). This represents an increase of approximately 30 percent from 1990 population levels. In addition, the California economy, measured as gross state product, grew from $773 billon in 1990 to $2.5 trillion in 2015, representing an increase of approximately 225 percent (over Impact Sciences, Inc VillaSport Athletic Club and Spa Draft EIR

6 twice the 1990 gross state product) (DOF 2016). Despite the population and economic growth, California s net GHG emissions only grew by approximately 4.8 percent between 1990 and 2014 (CARB 2016). Source Category Table GHG Emissions in California 1990 (MMTCO2e) Percent of Total 2014 (MMTCO2e) Percent of Total ENERGY % % Energy Industries % % Manufacturing Industries and Construction % % Transport % % Other (Residential/Commercial/Institutional) % % Fugitive Emissions from Fuels % % INDUSTRIAL PROCESSES AND PRODUCT USE % % Mineral Industry % % Chemical Industry % % Non Energy Products from Fuels and Solvent Use % % Electronics Industry % % Substitutes for Ozone Depleting Substances % % Other Product Manufacture and Use % % Other % % AGRICULTURE, FORESTRY, AND OTHER LAND USE % % Livestock % % Aggregate Sources and Non CO2 Sources on Land % % WASTE % % Solid Waste Disposal % % Wastewater Treatment and Discharge % % TOTAL CALIFORNIA EMISSIONS Sources: 1 California Air Resources Board, California Greenhouse Gas Inventory by IPCC Category Summary, California Air Resources Board, California Greenhouse Gas Inventory by IPCC Category Summary, 14.pdf Impact Sciences, Inc VillaSport Athletic Club and Spa Draft EIR

7 4.2.3 REGULATORY FRAMEWORK Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and United Nations Environmental Program (UNEP) established the IPCC in The goal of the IPCC is to evaluate the risk of climate change caused by human activities. Rather than performing research or monitoring climate, the IPCC relies on peerreviewed and published scientific literature to make its assessment. While not a regulatory body, the IPCC assesses information (i.e., scientific literature) regarding human induced climate change and the impacts of human induced climate change, and recommends options to policy makers for the adaptation and mitigation of climate change. The IPCC reports its evaluations in special reports called assessment reports. The latest final assessment report (i.e., Fifth Assessment Report, consisting of three working group reports and a synthesis report based on the first three reports) was published in In its 2013 report, the IPCC stated that Each of the last three decades has been successively warmer at the Earth s surface than any preceding decade since In the Northern Hemisphere, was likely the warmest 30 year period of the last 1,400 years (IPCC 2013). Federal Laws and Regulations In Massachusetts vs. EPA, the Supreme Court held that United States Environmental Protection Agency (US EPA) has the statutory authority under Section 202 of the Clean Air Act (CAA) to regulate GHGs from new motor vehicles. The court did not hold that the US EPA was required to regulate GHG emissions; however, it indicated that the agency must decide whether GHGs from motor vehicles cause or contribute to air pollution that is reasonably anticipated to endanger public health or welfare. Upon the final decision, the President signed Executive Order on May 14, 2007, directing the US EPA, along with the Departments of Transportation, Energy, and Agriculture, to initiate a regulatory process that responds to the Supreme Court s decision. In December 2007, the President signed the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007, which sets a mandatory Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) requiring fuel producers to use at least 36 billion gallons of biofuel in 2022 and sets a national fuel economy standard of 35 miles per gallon by The act also contains provisions for energy efficiency in lighting and appliances and for the implementation of green building technologies in federal buildings. On July 11, 2008, the US EPA issued an Advanced Notice of Proposed Rulemaking (ANPRM) on regulating GHGs under the CAA. The ANPRM reviews the various CAA provisions that may be applicable to the regulation of GHGs and presents potential regulatory approaches and technologies for reducing GHG emissions. On April 10, 2009, the US EPA published the 4 The IPCC s Fifth Assessment Report is available online at Impact Sciences, Inc VillaSport Athletic Club and Spa Draft EIR

8 Proposed Mandatory Greenhouse Gas Reporting Rule in the Federal Register (US EPA 2009). The rule was adopted on September 22, 2009 and covers approximately 10,000 facilities nationwide, accounting for 85 percent of US GHG emissions. On September 15, 2009, the US EPA and the Department of Transportation s (DOT) National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) issued a joint proposal to establish a national program consisting of new standards for model year 2012 through 2016 light duty vehicles that will reduce GHG emissions and improve fuel economy. The proposed standards would be phased in and would require passenger cars and light duty trucks to comply with a declining emissions standard. In 2012, passenger cars and light duty trucks would have to meet an average standard of 295 grams of CO2 per mile and 30.1 miles per gallon. By 2016, the vehicles would have to meet an average standard of 250 grams of CO2 per mile and 35.5 miles per gallon. 5 These standards were formally adopted by the US EPA and DOT on April 1, On December 7, 2009, the US EPA Administrator signed two distinct findings regarding GHGs under section 202(a) of the CAA: Endangerment Finding: The Administrator finds that the current and projected concentrations of the six key well mixed GHGs (carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, hydrofluorocarbons, perfluorocarbons, and sulfur hexafluoride) in the atmosphere threaten the public health and welfare of current and future generations. Cause or Contribute Finding: The Administrator finds that the combined emissions of these wellmixed greenhouse gases from new motor vehicles and new motor vehicle engines contribute to the greenhouse gas pollution which threatens public health and welfare. While these findings do not impose additional requirements on industry or other entities, this action was a prerequisite to finalizing the US EPA s proposed GHG emissions standards for light duty vehicles, which were jointly proposed by the US EPA and DOT. On April 1, 2010, the US EPA and NHTSA issued final rules requiring that by the 2016 model year, manufacturers must achieve a combined average vehicle emission level of 250 grams of CO2 per mile, which is equivalent to 35.5 miles per gallon as measured by US EPA standards. These agencies are currently in the process of developing similar regulations for the 2017 through 2025 model years. 5 The CO2 emission standards and fuel economy standards stated are based on US EPA formulas. Impact Sciences, Inc VillaSport Athletic Club and Spa Draft EIR

9 State Laws and Regulations Executive Order S 3 05 and the Climate Action Team On June 1, 2005, former California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger issued Executive Order S It included the following GHG emission reduction targets: by 2010, reduce GHG emissions to 2000 levels; by 2020, reduce GHG emissions to 1990 levels; by 2050, reduce GHG emissions to 80 percent below 1990 levels. To meet the targets, the governor directed several state agencies to cooperate in the development of a climate action plan. The secretary of Cal EPA leads the Climate Action Team (CAT), whose goal is to implement global warming emission reduction programs identified in the climate action plan and to report on the progress made toward meeting the emission reduction targets established in the executive order. Assembly Bill 32 In furtherance of the goals established in Executive Order S 3 05, the Legislature enacted the California Global Warming Solutions Act of 2006 (Assembly Bill [AB] 32). AB 32 represents the first enforceable statewide program to limit GHG emissions from all major industries with penalties for noncompliance. The Act requires the State of California to reduce its emissions to 1990 levels by The Act establishes key deadlines for certain actions the state must take in order to achieve the reduction target. The first action under AB 32 resulted in California Air Resources Board s (CARB) adoption of a report listing three specific early action GHG reduction measures on June 21, On October 25, 2007, CARB approved an additional six early action GHG reduction measures under AB 32. As required under AB 32, on December 6, 2007, CARB approved the 1990 GHG emissions inventory, thereby establishing the emissions limit for The 2020 emissions limit was set at 427 million metric tons of CO2 equivalents (MMTCO2e). CARB also projected the state s 2020 GHG emissions under business as usual (BAU) conditions that is, emissions that would occur without any plans, policies, or regulations to reduce GHG emissions. CARB used an average of the state s GHG emissions from 2002 through 2004 and projected the 2020 levels based on population and economic forecasts. The projected net emissions totaled approximately 596 MMTCO2e. Therefore, CARB established that the state must reduce its 2020 BAU emissions by approximately 29 percent in order to meet the 1990 target. The inventory revealed that in 1990, transportation, with 35 percent of the stateʹs total emissions, was the largest single sector generating carbon dioxide; followed by industrial emissions, 24 percent; imported electricity, 14 percent; in state electricity generation, 11 percent; residential use, 7 percent; agriculture, 5 percent; and commercial uses, 3 percent (figures are based on the 1990 inventory). AB 32 does not require Impact Sciences, Inc VillaSport Athletic Club and Spa Draft EIR

10 individual sectors to meet their individual 1990 GHG emissions inventory; the total statewide emissions are required to meet the 1990 threshold by In addition to the 1990 emissions inventory, CARB also adopted regulations requiring the mandatory reporting of GHG emissions for large facilities on December 6, The mandatory reporting regulations require annual reporting from the largest facilities in the state, which account for approximately 94 percent of greenhouse gas emissions from industrial and commercial stationary sources in California. About 800 separate sources fall under the new reporting rules and include electricity generating facilities, electricity retail providers and power marketers, oil refineries, hydrogen plants, cement plants, cogeneration facilities, and industrial sources that emit over 25,000 tons of CO2 each year from on site stationary combustion sources. Transportation sources, which accounted for 38 percent of California s total GHG emissions as of the GHG inventory conducted by CARB, are not covered by these regulations but will continue to be tracked through existing means (CARB 2009). AB 32 required CARB to adopt a scoping plan indicating how reductions in significant sources of GHGs will be achieved via regulations, market mechanism, and other actions. After receiving public input on the discussion draft of the scoping plan, the CARB Governing Board approved the Climate Change Scoping Plan on December 11, In October 2010, CARB identified ongoing programs and adopted 29 individual measures to reduce GHG emissions in accordance with the Climate Change Scoping Plan strategies. The Climate Change Scoping Plan was re approved by CARB in August 2011, and the first update to the Climate Change Scoping Plan was approved on May 22, On April 29, 2015, California Governor Edmund G. Brown, Jr. signed Executive Order B 30 15, which established a 2030 statewide GHG reduction target of 40 percent below 1990 levels. The intent of the Executive Order is to establish a mid term target in between the 2020 statewide target and the 2050 statewide target established under AB 32. CARB was directed to update the Climate Change Scoping Plan to reflect the mid term target. CARB is currently in the process of preparing the update, and a draft has not been published at this time. On October 20, 2011, CARB approved a Cap and Trade Program as part of AB 32 implementation, with compliance obligations that became effective in (Cal. Code of Regulations, title 17, to ) For compliance years 2013 and 2014, an initial cap was implemented for the electrical sector and large industrial sources that emit more than 25,000 metric tons of CO2e emissions per year. Transportation fuels and natural gas usage were added to the Cap and Trade Program beginning in 2015, and the cap was adjusted to account for the inclusion of these new emission sources. Over time, the cap will be reduced by about 3 percent per year. Impact Sciences, Inc VillaSport Athletic Club and Spa Draft EIR

11 Cap and trade is a market based regulation that is designed to reduce GHGs from multiple sources, including operators of Petroleum and Natural Gas Systems facilities (Section 95852(h)). It is viewed as an environmentally effective and economically efficient response to climate change. Cap and trade sets a firm limit, or cap, on GHG emissions from all sources in the Cap and Trade Program, and minimizes the compliance costs of achieving AB 32 goals. The initial cap was established in 2013 for the electrical sector and any large industrial source emitting more than 25,000 MTCO2e per year. Oil and gas production activities are considered to be industrial activities and production facilities are included in the Cap and Trade Program when their emissions exceed the 25,000 metric ton threshold. Beginning in 2015, the cap was expanded to include GHG emissions from the combustion of transportation fuels and natural gas. The cap declines approximately 3 percent each year. In the market, a price on carbon is established for GHGs. Trading and market forces create incentives to reduce GHGs below allowable levels through investments in technological innovation in clean technologies. California has linked its Cap and Trade Program with a similar program adopted by Quebec in order to help deliver cost effective emission reductions. Assembly Bill 1493 In response to the transportation sector s contribution of more than half of California s CO2 emissions, Assembly Bill 1493 (AB 1493, Pavley) was enacted on July 22, AB 1493 requires CARB to set GHG emission standards for passenger vehicles, light duty trucks, and other vehicles whose primary use is noncommercial personal transportation. CARB adopted the standards in September The new standards will be phased in during the 2009 through 2016 model years. Renewable Portfolio Standard Established in 2002 under SB 1078, accelerated in 2006 under SB 107, and expanded in 2011 under SB 2, Californiaʹs Renewables Portfolio Standard (RPS) is one of the most ambitious renewable energy standards in the country. The RPS program requires investor owned utilities, electric service providers, and community choice aggregators to increase procurement from eligible renewable energy resources to 33 percent of total procurement by Senate Bill 350 In the 2015 legislative session, the Legislature passed, and the Governor signed, Senate Bill 350 (SB 350). The legislation requires, among other things, that, by 2030, 50 percent of all electricity provided by power plants in California must be from renewable sources. SB 350 further requires the California Energy Commission (CEC) to establish annual targets for statewide energy efficiency savings and demand reduction that would achieve a cumulative doubling of statewide energy efficiency savings in electricity Impact Sciences, Inc VillaSport Athletic Club and Spa Draft EIR

12 and natural gas by retail customers by The legislation requires the Public Utilities Commission (PUC) to establish efficiency targets for investor owned electrical and gas corporations consistent with the 2030 goal, and the CEC to establish annual targets for energy efficiency savings and demand reductions for local publicly owned electric utilities consistent with the 2030 goal. Each retailer of electricity must regularly file an integrated resource plan (IRP) for review and approval. SB 350 also added to the Public Utilities Code language that essentially puts into statute the post 2020, long term GHG reduction targets already identified in Executive Orders S 3 05 and B 30 15, as described above, albeit in the limited context of new state policies increasing the overall share of electricity that must be produced through renewable energy sources and directing certain state agencies to begin planning for the widespread electrification of the California vehicle fleet. Section (a)(1)(D) of the Public Utilities Code now states that [t]he Legislature finds and declares [that] [r]educing emissions of [GHGs] to 40 percent below 1990 levels by 2030 and to 80 percent below 1990 levels by 2050 will require widespread transportation electrification. Furthermore, Section (b) now states that the PUC, in consultation with CARB and the CEC, must direct electrical corporations to file applications for programs and investments to accelerate widespread transportation electrification to reduce dependence on petroleum, meet air quality standards, and reduce emissions of greenhouse gases to 40 percent below 1990 levels by 2030 and to 80 percent below 1990 levels by Senate Bill 32 In the 2016 legislative session, the Legislature passed, and the Governor signed, Senate Bill 32 (SB 32). This bill requires CARB to adopt rules and regulations to ensure that statewide GHG emissions are reduced to 40 percent below the 1990 level by Assembly Bill 197 In the 2016 legislative session, the Legislature passed, and the Governor signed, Assembly Bill 197 (AB 197). This legislation requires CARB to make available the emissions of greenhouse gases, criteria pollutants, and toxic air contaminants for each facility that reports to the state board and air districts. In addition, this bill requires that CARB make available the emissions of greenhouse gases, criteria pollutants, and toxic air contaminants throughout the state, broken down to a local and sub county level for stationary sources and to at least a county level for mobile sources, as specified. Impact Sciences, Inc VillaSport Athletic Club and Spa Draft EIR

13 Local Laws and Regulations Placer County Air Pollution Control District The Placer County Air Pollution Control District (PCAPCD) is the primary authority for regulating GHG emissions in the project area. On October 13, 2016, the PCAPCD adopted thresholds of significance for determining the potential impact for GHG emissions. The PCAPCD must also track compliance with AB 32 reduction targets, and therefore has GHG reporting requirements similar to other air districts within California. City of Roseville General Plan The City of Roseville General Plan includes policies to preserve air quality. The General Plan was updated in 2008 to include GHG emissions, and provides policies that address both direct and indirect GHG emissions and their potential impact through climate change. GHG related policies that are actively being implemented by the City include the following: Land Use Element Community Form Policies Relationship to Transit, Pedestrian, Air Quality Policy 1 Promote land use patterns that support a variety of transportation modes and accommodate pedestrian mobility. Policy 2 Allow for land use patterns and mixed use development that integrate residential and nonresidential land uses, such that residents may easily walk or bike to shopping, services, employment and leisure activities. Policy 3 Concentrate higher intensity uses and appropriate support uses within close proximity of transit and bikeway corridors as identified in the Bicycle Master Plan. In addition, some component of public use such as parks, plazas, public buildings, community centers and/or libraries should be located within the corridors. Policy 5 Where feasible, improve existing development areas to create better pedestrian and transit accessibility. Policy 6 Through City land use planning and development approvals, require that neighborhood serving uses (e.g., neighborhood commercial uses, day care, parks, schools, and other community facilities) be physically linked with adjacent residential neighborhoods. Impact Sciences, Inc VillaSport Athletic Club and Spa Draft EIR

14 Land Use Element Community Form Policies Downtown, Neighborhoods Policy 5 Encourage infill development and rehabilitation that: Upgrades the quality and enhances the character of existing areas; Enhances public transit use and pedestrian access; Efficiently utilizes and does not overburden existing services and infrastructure; and Results in land use patterns and densities that provide the opportunity for the construction of household types affordable to all income groups. Land Use Element Community Form Policies Relationship of New Development Policy 1 Require that new development areas and associated community wide facilities (open space resources, parks, libraries, etc.) be linked and oriented to existing developed areas of the community through road networks, public transit systems, open space systems, bike way and pedestrian systems, and other physical connections. Land Use Element Community Design Policies Policy 2 Continue to develop and apply design standards that result in efficient site and building designs, pedestrian friendly projects that stimulate the use of alternative modes of transportation, and the establishment of a functional relationship between adjacent developments. Policy 3 Encourage designs that strike a balance between the incorporation of aesthetic and development requirements, and the economic considerations associated with development. Circulation Element Level of Service Policies Policy 2 Strive to meet the level of service standards through a balanced transportation system that reduces the auto emissions that contribute to climate change by providing alternatives to the automobile and avoiding Impact Sciences, Inc VillaSport Athletic Club and Spa Draft EIR

15 excessive vehicle congestion through roadway improvements, Intelligent Transportation Systems, and roadway improvements. Circulation Element Transportation Systems Management Policies Policy 1 Continue to enforce the Cityʹs TSM ordinance and monitor its effectiveness. Circulation Element Bikeway/Trails Policies Policy 1 Develop a comprehensive and safe system of recreational and commuter bicycle routes and trails that provides connections between the Cityʹs major employment and housing areas and between its existing and planned bikeways. Open Space and Conservation Element Open Space System Policies Policy 4 Require all new development to provide linkages to existing and planned open space systems. Where such access cannot be provided through the creation of open space connections, identify alternative linkages. Public Facilities Element Solid Waste, Source Reduction and Recycling Policies Policy 2 Comply with the source reduction and recycling standards mandated by the State by reducing the projected quantity of solid waste disposed at the regional landfill by 50%, as well as any mandated future reductions. Policy 5 Develop public education and recycling programs. Public Facilities Element Water and Energy Conservation Policies Policy 1 Develop and implement water conservation standards. Policy 2 Implement various water conservation plans developed by the Environmental Utilities Department. Policy 5 Develop and adopt a landscape ordinance that provides standards for the use of drought tolerant, xeriscape, and water conserving landscape practices for both public and private projects. Impact Sciences, Inc VillaSport Athletic Club and Spa Draft EIR

16 Policy 8 Enforce energy requirements and encourage development and construction standards that promote energy efficiency and conservation. Policy 10 Continue and expand energy efficiency and conservation programs to serve all utility users. North Central Roseville Specific Plan The North Central Roseville Specific Plan (NCRSP) was adopted prior to the requirement that projects address the contribution of GHGs. However, the NCRSP does contain some policies designed to reduce energy consumption and to minimize air emissions associated with future development. Applicable policies are listed as follows: Utilities Policy 5 As a method of reducing solar gain, which may increase interior air conditioning requirements, trees shall be planted and maintained in all non residential parking areas to ensure that, within fifteen (15) year of planting, at least fifty percent (50%) of the parking area is shaded at midday during the summer season. Policy 6 All habitable structures shall be designed and oriented to maximize the potential for energy conservation wherever feasible. Such measures shall include, but are not limited to, utilization of both passive and active solar systems. Policy 7 Throughout the Plan Area, deciduous trees, which aid in summer cooling and allow solar gain for winter heating, shall be appropriately sited. Policy 8 All cost effective energy conservation and peak usage reduction measures shall be incorporated into development design, including those measures required by Title 24 and the City of Roseville Energy Office. Impact Sciences, Inc VillaSport Athletic Club and Spa Draft EIR

17 4.4.4 ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS Thresholds of Significance For the purposes of this Draft EIR, impacts related to GHG emissions resulting from the implementation of the proposed project would be considered significant if they would exceed the following Standards of Significance, which are based on Appendix G of the most recent update of the State CEQA Guidelines. According to these Standards of Significance, the proposed project would have a significant impact related to GHG emissions if it would: Generate greenhouse gas emissions, either directly or indirectly, that may have a significant impact on the environment; or Conflict with an applicable plan, policy or regulation adopted for the purpose of reducing the emissions of greenhouse gases. The State CEQA Guidelines include Section , which states that, when making a determination with respect to the significance of a project s GHG emissions, a lead agency shall have discretion to determine whether to: (1) Use a model or methodology to quantify GHG emissions resulting from a project, and which model or methodology to use; and/or (2) Rely on a qualitative analysis or performance based standards. Section also states that a lead agency should consider the following factors when assessing the significance of the impact of GHG emissions on the environment: (1) The extent to which the project may increase or reduce GHG emissions as compared to the existing environmental setting; (2) Whether the project emissions exceed a threshold of significance that the lead agency determines applies to the project; and (3) The extent to which the project complies with regulations or requirements adopted to implement a statewide, regional, or local plan for the reduction or mitigation of GHG emissions. Potential impacts under the first significance criterion derived from the Initial Study Checklist found in Appendix G to the CEQA Guidelines may be evaluated by performing a direct calculation of the GHG emissions resulting from the proposed project and comparing the emissions with the available significance thresholds. On October 13, 2016, the PCAPCD adopted thresholds of significance to be used to evaluate the significance of a project s operational GHG emissions. The PCAPCD established a de minimis level threshold of 1,100 annual metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent units of measure (MTCO2e/yr), below which impacts are less than significant, and also a maximum emissions threshold of 10,000 MTCO2e/yr, beyond which impacts are significant. For projects with GHG emissions between 1,100 and 10,000 MTCO2e/yr, the PCAPCD established efficiency thresholds to determine significance (see Table 4.4 3, Placer County Air Pollution Control District Efficiency Thresholds, below). Projects Impact Sciences, Inc VillaSport Athletic Club and Spa Draft EIR

18 with GHG emissions between 1,100 and 10,000 MTCO2e/yr and which fall below the efficiency thresholds are considered to have a less than significant impact on the environment. Table Placer County Air Pollution Control District GHG Efficiency Thresholds Residential Non Residential Urban Rural Urban Rural (MTCO2e/capita) (MTCO2e/1,000 sf) Source: PCAPCD, 2016 Potential impacts under the second significance criterion derived from the Appendix G Checklist may be evaluated by demonstrating compliance with plans, policies, or regulations adopted by local governments to curb GHG emissions. According to the Natural Resources Agency: Provided that such plans contain specific requirements with respect to resources that are within the agency s jurisdiction to avoid or substantially lessen the agency s contributions to GHG emissions, both from its own projects and from private projects it has approved or will approve, such plans may be appropriately relied on in a cumulative impacts analysis (Natural Resources Agency 2009). Under CEQA, the determination of whether a project may have a significant effect on the environment calls for careful judgment on the part of the public agency involved, based to the extent possible on scientific and factual data (State CEQA Guidelines Section 15064). CEQA grants agencies with the general authority to adopt criteria for determining whether a given impact is significant (California Public Resources Code Section 21082). When no guidance exists under CEQA, the agency may look to and assess general compliance with comparable regulatory schemes. AB 32 and the regulations and programs promulgated thereunder are considered the most relevant sources of legal authority for the purposes of this analysis. The PCAPCD significance thresholds are based upon expected development through the year 2030 and are designed to ensure that the goals of AB 32 can be met. Thus, a project which is below significance thresholds established by the PCAPCD will not conflict with AB 32. CEQA Checklist Items Adequately Addressed in the Initial Study All of the CEQA checklist questions related to GHG emissions are analyzed below. Impact Sciences, Inc VillaSport Athletic Club and Spa Draft EIR

19 Methodology The proposed project s short term construction related and long term operational GHG emissions were estimated using the CalEEMod software. CalEEMod is a statewide model designed to provide a uniform platform for government agencies, land use planners, and environmental professionals to quantify GHG emissions from land use projects. The model quantifies direct GHG emissions from construction and operation (including vehicle use), as well as indirect GHG emissions, such as GHG emissions from energy use, solid waste disposal, vegetation planting and/or removal, and water use. Emissions are expressed in annual metric tons of CO2 equivalent units of measure (i.e., MTCO2e), based on the global warming potential of the individual pollutants. Project Impact Analysis Impact GHG 1 Implementation of the proposed project would not generate greenhouse gas emissions, either directly or indirectly, that may have a significant impact on the environment. (Less than significant) Emissions of GHGs contributing to global climate change are attributable in large part to human activities associated with the industrial/manufacturing, utility, transportation, residential, and agricultural sectors. Therefore, the cumulative global emissions of GHGs contributing to global climate change can be attributed to every nation, region, and city, and virtually every individual on Earth. A project s GHG emissions are at a micro scale relative to global emissions, but could result in a cumulatively considerable incremental contribution to a significant cumulative macro scale impact. As discussed above, the PCAPCD has recently established thresholds of significance to be used to evaluate the significance of a project s construction or operational GHG emissions. The project s GHG emissions are compared to these thresholds below. Short Term GHG Emissions Estimated increases in GHG emissions associated with construction of the proposed project are summarized in Table 4.4 4, Project Construction GHG Emissions. Impact Sciences, Inc VillaSport Athletic Club and Spa Draft EIR

20 Table Project Construction GHG Emissions CO2 Emissions (MTCO2e) Total Construction GHG Emissions Source: Raney Planning & Management, 2013 As presented in Table 4.4 4, short term emissions of GHG associated with construction of the proposed project are estimated to be MTCO2e. Construction GHG emissions are a one time release and are typically considered separate from operational emissions, as global climate change is inherently a cumulative effect that occurs over a long period of time and is quantified on a yearly basis. Even though construction related emissions will cease at the end of the construction, the pollutants will remain in the atmosphere for long periods afterwards, in some cases for hundreds of years. To ensure that the combined emissions associated with construction and operations are considered together, the proposed project s construction GHG emissions have been amortized over the lifetime of the project, which is assumed for this analysis to be 25 years, and included in the annual operational GHG emissions. Construction would only occur for a short period of time in this case for approximately one year. Long Term GHG Emissions The long term operational GHG emissions estimate for the proposed project includes the project s area source and vehicle emissions, emissions associated with energy and water usage, and the generation of wastewater and solid waste. It should be noted that the project site s proximity to the nearby office uses, commercial businesses, and Galleria Mall were taken into consideration during modeling. Estimated GHG emissions associated with the proposed project in operational year 2020 are summarized in Table 4.4 5, Project (2020) Operational GHG Emissions. As shown in Table 4.4 5, the annual GHG emissions associated with the proposed project by year 2020, including amortized construction GHG emissions, would be 3, MTCO2e. Impact Sciences, Inc VillaSport Athletic Club and Spa Draft EIR

21 Table Project (2020) Operational GHG Emissions CO2 Emissions (MTCO2e) Annual Operational GHG Emissions 3, Energy Mobile 2, Waste Water Construction GHG Emissions Annual GHG Emissions 3, Source: Raney Planning & Management, See Table 4.4 3; Amortized over the estimated 25 year project lifetime. The estimate of annual GHG emissions provided in Table exceeds the PCAPCD s de minimis numerical threshold of 1,100 MTCO2e/yr. As the proposed project s GHG emissions are between 1,100 and 10,000 MT CO2e/yr, a GHG efficiency rate for the proposed project was calculated. As discussed in Chapter 3.0, Project Description, the proposed project includes an approximately 88,000 square foot building and an approximately 50,000 square foot outdoor area for a total of 138,000 square feet. If the annual emissions are divided by the combined building space of the indoor and active use outdoor areas, the resulting per 1,000 square foot emissions would be 22.0 MTCO2e/1,000 sf/yr, which would not exceed the threshold of 26.5 MT CO2e/1,000 sf/yr, which is the efficiency threshold set forth by PCAPCD for a non residential project in an urban environment (see Table above). As discussed in Chapter 3.0, Projection Description, the proposed project includes a number of features to minimize GHG emissions and to promote more sustainable practices, many of which are mandated by the 2013 California Green Building Standards Code (CalGreen Code). For example, with respect to energy efficiency, the proposed structure has been sited to take advantage of shade and landscaping will be designed to reduce energy use. Furthermore, energy efficient lighting would be installed in the proposed structure, day lighting will be used as an integral part of the proposed lighting system, and the proposed structure would use a highly reflective, light colored roofing membrane to reduce the heat island effect and minimize impacts of microclimate. With respect to water conservation and efficiency, with the Impact Sciences, Inc VillaSport Athletic Club and Spa Draft EIR