5.7 GREENHOUSE GASES EXISTING CONDITIONS Greenhouse Gases and Climate Change. Global Context

Transcription

1 5.7 GREENHOUSE GASES This section evaluates the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions that would be generated by the proposed Project. Quantified estimate of GHG emissions are provided for the proposed Project in Appendix EXISTING CONDITIONS Greenhouse Gases and Climate Change Global Context Greenhouse gases are global pollutants that have long atmospheric lifetimes (one year to several thousand years). GHGs remain in the atmosphere long enough to be dispersed around the globe. Although the exact lifetime of any particular GHG molecule depends on multiple variables and cannot be pinpointed, more carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) is currently emitted into the atmosphere than is sequestered. CO 2 sinks, or reservoirs, include vegetation and the ocean, which absorb CO 2 through photosynthesis and dissolution, respectively two of the most common processes of CO 2 sequestration. Of the total annual human-caused CO 2 emissions, approximately 54 percent is sequestered through ocean uptake, Northern Hemisphere forest regrowth, and other terrestrial sinks within a year; whereas the remaining 46 percent of human-caused CO 2 emissions is stored in the atmosphere. Similarly, effects of GHGs are borne globally, as opposed to localized air quality effects of criteria air pollutants and toxic air contaminants (TACs). The quantity of GHGs that it takes trigger in climate change is not precisely known, but that quantity is enormous, and no single project would be expected to measurably contribute to a noticeable incremental change in the global average temperature, or to global, local, or microclimates. GHGs with lower emissions rates than CO 2 may still contribute to climate change because they are more effective at absorbing outgoing infrared radiation than CO 2. The concept of CO 2 -equivalency (CO 2 e) is used to account for the different potentials of GHGs to absorb infrared radiation. This potential, known as the global warming potential (GWP) of a GHG, is dependent on the lifetime, or persistence, of the gas molecule in the atmosphere. However, emissions of methane (CH 4 ) and nitrous oxide (N 2 O) are generally much lower than those of CO 2 and are associated with anaerobic microbial activity resulting from agricultural practices, flooded soils, and landfills. CH 4 and N 2 O have approximately 23 and 296 times the GWP of CO 2, respectively. Meridian Consultants ATV Adventure Trails of the Eastern Sierra

2 Greenhouse Effect GHGs play a critical role in determining Earth s surface temperature because these gases absorb solar radiation. Solar radiation enters the earth s atmosphere from space. A portion of the radiation is absorbed by the earth s surface, and a smaller portion of this radiation is reflected back toward space. The radiation absorbed by the earth is reradiated as lower frequency infrared radiation, which is then selectively absorbed by GHGs in the earth s atmosphere. As a result, the greater the amount of GHGs in the atmosphere, the greater the amount of infrared radiation trapped, resulting in a warming of the atmosphere. This phenomenon is commonly referred to as the greenhouse effect. Scientists have speculated that increased GHG warming from human activity could lead to a less habitable climate. Human-caused emissions of these GHGs leading to atmospheric levels in excess of natural ambient concentrations are responsible for intensifying the greenhouse effect. These emissions have led to a trend of unnatural warming of the earth s atmosphere and oceans, with corresponding effects on global air circulation patterns and climate. CO 2 emissions associated with fossil-fuel combustion are the primary contributors to human-induced emissions. Climate Change Effects for California Climate change could affect environmental conditions in California in a variety of ways. One effect of climate change is sea level rise. Sea levels along the California coast rose approximately 7 inches during the last century and are predicted to rise an additional 7 22 inches by 2100, depending on the future levels of GHG emissions. The effects of a rising sea level could include increased coastal flooding, saltwater intrusion (especially a concern in the low-lying Sacramento San Joaquin Delta, where pumps delivering potable water to Southern California could be threatened), and disruption of wetlands. As the existing climate throughout California changes over time, the ranges of various plant and wildlife species could shift or be reduced, depending on the favored temperature and moisture regimes of each species. In the worst cases, some species would become extinct or be extirpated from the state if suitable conditions are no longer available. Additional concerns associated with climate change are a reduction in the snowpack, leading to less overall water storage in the mountains (the largest reservoir in the State), and increased risk of wildfire caused by changes in rainfall patterns and plant communities. Sources of Greenhouse Gas Emissions Land use decisions and future development projects pursuant to implementation of a general plan can affect the generation of GHG emissions from multiple sectors, resulting in direct or indirect GHG emissions. For example, electricity consumed in structures would indirectly cause GHGs to be emitted at a power plant. Residents, employees, shoppers, and visitors drive vehicles that generate GHG emissions, which are part of the transportation sector. Meridian Consultants ATV Adventure Trails of the Eastern Sierra

3 California is the second largest contributor of GHGs in the United States and the 16th largest in the world. 1 Emissions of CO 2 are byproducts of fossil-fuel combustion and are attributable in large part to human activities associated with the industrial/manufacturing, utility, transportation, residential, and agricultural sectors Existing Greenhouse Gas Emissions State of California Emissions GHG emissions are presented in units of metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent (MTCO2e/yr), which allows emissions of other GHGs, such as CH 4, N 2 O, and high-gwp GHGs, to be normalized to a single unit of measure. In 2010, California produced MMTCO2e, 2 including imported electricity and excluding combustion of international fuels and carbon sinks or storage. The 2004 California GHG inventory was approximately 7 percent of US emissions. The major source of GHGs in California is transportation, contributing to 41 percent of the State s total GHG emissions. 3 Electricity generation (both in- and out-of-state) is the second largest source, contributing to 22 percent of the State s GHG emissions. 4 The statewide inventory of GHGs by sector for the most recent 10-year period available is shown in Table 5.7-1, California GHG Inventory Inyo County Emissions Section 5.3, Air Quality, describes and analyzes the natural factors (i.e., topography, climate, and meteorology) and scientific background for climate change and GHG emissions, current GHG emissions and sources of emissions within the Project area. Of the pollutants described, CO 2, CH 4, and N 2 O are the three main GHG pollutants associated with vehicle operation. These three GHG pollutants are the focus of the GHG impact analysis. Inyo County emitted an estimated 3,618 MT of GHG in Baseline GHG emissions are summarized in Table 5.7-2, Inyo County Facilities 2011 Greenhouse Gas Emissions. As shown on Table 5.7-2, total GHG emissions for County facilities were estimated at approximately 3618 MTCO2e in On-road transportation emissions (unleaded gasoline plus diesel) comprise 59 percent of the emissions, followed by 29 percent from electricity use and 12 percent from propane. GHG 1 Gerry Bemis, Inventory of California Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks: 1990 to 2004, California Energy Commission Staff Final ReportCEC SF (2006), 2 California Air Resources Board, California Greenhouse Gas Inventory for by Category as Defined in the Scoping Plan, updated February 19, 2013 (2013), 3 Bemis, Inventory of California Greenhouse Gas Emissions (2006). 4 Bemis, Inventory of California Greenhouse Gas Emissions (2006). Meridian Consultants ATV Adventure Trails of the Eastern Sierra

4 Table California GHG Inventory Emissions MMTCO2e Main Sector Transportation Electric Power Commercial/Residential Industrial Recycling and Waste Agriculture Forestry Forestry Net a b Total Net Emissions b Source: California Air Resources Board (CARB) (2013). Notes: Excludes military sector. MMTCO2e = million metric tons carbon dioxide equivalents. a - Represents the difference of CO 2 emitted by forestlands and wood products from CO 2 absorbed by forestlands. b - Revised methodology for calculating is under development by the CARB. Meridian Consultants ATV Adventure Trails of the Eastern Sierra

5 Table Inyo County Facilities 2011 Greenhouse Gas Emissions 2011 Inventory Emissions Source MT CO2e Percent Electricity % Propane % Unleaded Gasoline % Diesel % Total % Population ,457 Employment ,149 Per capita (MT CO 2 e per person) 0.2 Per service population (MT CO 2 e/sp) 0.15 Sources: County of Inyo, Cost, Energy and Service Efficiencies Action Plan (2012); US Census. Notes: MT CO 2e = metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalency SP = service population (population + employment). emissions in 2011 by facility and energy type are illustrated in Table 5.7-3, 2011 Inyo Facilities Usage. The existing makeup of the County vehicle fleet is illustrated in Table 5.7-4, Inyo County Vehicle Fleet REGULATORY SETTING This section includes a summary of climate change related legislation applicable to California and Inyo County. This framework identifies portions of GHG emissions sectors that would be regulated by legislation and portions that would be under the purview of local government entities, such as the County. This section also provides the basis for statewide GHG reduction targets identified in Assembly Bill (AB) Federal Regulations The United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) is the federal agency responsible for implementing the federal Clean Air Act (CAA). The Supreme Court of the United States ruled on April 2, 2007, that CO 2 is an air pollutant as defined under the CAA, and that the USEPA has the authority to regulate emissions of GHGs. In response to the mounting issue of climate change, USEPA has taken the following two actions to regulate, monitor, and potentially reduce GHG emissions. Meridian Consultants ATV Adventure Trails of the Eastern Sierra

6 Table Inyo Facilities Usage Building Electricity (kwh) Propane (Gallons) Electricity GHG (MT) Propane GHG (MT) Administration (Bishop) 74,349 N/A 34 N/A Administration (Indy) 54,977 N/A 25 N/A Airport Hangers 1, 4, 6, 7, 8 22,953 3, Airport Terminal 35, Big Pine Legion Hall 9,836 County Services Building (S. St.) 121,245 N/A 55 N/A Bishop Library/Offices 41,787 1, Courthouse and Annex 620,560 21, Eastern California Museum 43,541 1, Bishop Senior Center 53,440 3, HHS and Probation (Main Street) 81, Inyo County Jail 638,054 20, Water Department Building 37,004 1, Juvenile Detention Center 195,488 10, Road Shop Independence 78,388 4, HHS (Grove St., Bishop) 176,793 N/A 80 N/A Source: County of Inyo, Cost, Energy and Service Efficiencies Action Plan (2012). Table Inyo County Vehicle Fleet Vehicle Type Percentage Pickups/Cars 60 Loader 5 Grader 12 Roller 3 Tractor 1 Tow 2 Dump 7 Plow 1 Other Large Truck 9 Total 100 Source: County of Inyo, Cost, Energy and Service Efficiencies Action Plan (2012). Meridian Consultants ATV Adventure Trails of the Eastern Sierra

7 Mandatory Greenhouse Gas Reporting Rule On September 22, 2009, USEPA issued a rule for mandatory reporting of GHGs from large GHG emissions sources in the United States. 5 In general, this national reporting requirement provides USEPA with accurate and timely GHG emissions data from facilities that emit 25,000 MT or more of CO 2 per year, allowing the operators of these facilities to track their own emissions, compare them to similar facilities, and aid in identifying cost-effective opportunities to reduce emissions in the future. An estimated 85 percent of the total US GHG emissions, from approximately 10,000 facilities, are covered by this rule. Endangerment and Cause or Contribute Findings for Greenhouse Gases under the Clean Air Act On December 7, 2009, USEPA adopted its Proposed Endangerment and Cause or Contribute Findings for Greenhouse Gases under Section 202(a) of the Compliance Certification Application (Endangerment Finding). These include: 6 Endangerment Finding: The Administrator finds that the current and projected concentrations of the six key well-mixed greenhouse gases CO 2, methane (CH 4 ), nitrous oxide (N 2 O), hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), perfluorocarbons (PFCs), and sulfur hexafluoride (SF 6 ) in the atmosphere threaten the public health and welfare of current and future generations. Cause or Contribute Finding: The Administrator finds that the combined emissions of these well-mixed greenhouse gases from new motor vehicles and new motor vehicle engines contribute to the GHG pollution, which threatens public health and welfare. These findings do not impose any requirements on industry or other entities. However, this action is a prerequisite to finalizing the proposed USEPA GHG standards for light-duty vehicles. These standards were jointly proposed by USEPA and the Department of Transportation National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) and the final rule became effective January 14, State Regulations Significant legislative and regulatory activities that affect climate change and GHG emissions in California that relate to the Project are discussed below; however, this does not represent a complete list of 5 US Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA), Greenhouse Gases Reporting Program Implementation, fact sheet (2009), 6 USEPA, Endangerment and Cause or Contribute Findings for Greenhouse Gases under Section 202(a) of the Clean Air Act (2013), Meridian Consultants ATV Adventure Trails of the Eastern Sierra

8 climate change related legislation in California. Other relevant legislation not specifically described in this section addresses renewable energy generation, energy efficiency, emissions from motor vehicles, and carbon intensity of fuels, among other issues. Assembly Bill 32, California Global Warming Solutions Act of 2006 In 2006, the California State Legislature enacted AB 32, the California Global Warming Solutions Act of AB 32 focuses on reducing GHG emissions in California. 7 GHGs, as defined under AB 32, include CO 2, methane, nitrous oxide, hydrofluorocarbons, perfluorocarbons, and sulfur hexafluoride. AB 32 establishes regulatory, reporting, and market mechanisms to achieve quantifiable reductions in GHG emissions and a cap on statewide GHG emissions. AB 32 requires that statewide GHG emissions be reduced to 1990 levels by Beginning in 2012, reduction is accomplished through an enforceable statewide cap on GHG emissions. To effectively implement the cap, AB 32 directs the California Air Resources Board (CARB) to develop and implement regulations to reduce statewide GHG emissions from stationary sources. The CARB Governing Board approved the 1990 GHG emissions level of 427 million metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalents (MMTCO2e) on December 6, Therefore, in 2020, emissions in California are required to be at or below 427 MMTCO2e. Under the current business as usual scenario, statewide emissions are increasing at a rate of approximately 1 percent per year as noted: 1990: 427 MMTCO2e 2004: 480 MMTCO2e 2008: 495 MMTCO2e 2020: 596 MMTCO2e 7 California Air Resources Board, Assembly Bill 32: Global Warming Solutions Act (n.d.), Meridian Consultants ATV Adventure Trails of the Eastern Sierra

9 Under AB 32, the CARB published its final Expanded List of Discrete Early Action Measures to Reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions in California. 8 The CARB has 44 early action measures that apply to the transportation, commercial, forestry, agriculture, cement, oil and gas, fire suppression, fuels, education, energy efficiency, electricity, and waste sectors. Of those early action measures, nine are considered discrete early action measures 9 in that they were adopted by CARB and enforceable by January 1, The CARB estimates that the 44 early action measures will result in reductions of at least 42 MMTCO2e by 2020, representing approximately 25 percent of the 2020 target. The California Environmental Quality Act (CEQA) is only mentioned once in the Early Action Measures report. The California Air Pollution Control Officer s Association suggested that CARB work with local air districts on approaches to review GHG impacts under the CEQA process, including significance thresholds for GHGs for projects and to develop a process for capturing reductions that result from CEQA mitigations. CARB s response to this recommendation in the report is as follows: 10 The Governor s Office of Planning and Research is charged with providing statewide guidance on CEQA implementation. With respect to quantifying any reductions that result from project-level mitigation of GHG emissions, we would like to see air districts take a lead role in tracking such reductions in their regions. SB 375 California Climate Adaptation Strategy Senate Bill (SB) 375 was signed into law by the governor on September 30, In SB 375, California enacted several measures to reduce vehicular emissions through land use planning. CARB will develop GHG emission reduction targets for the automobile and light-truck sector for each metropolitan planning organization. According to SB375, the transportation sector is the largest contributor of GHG emissions, which contributes to 40 percent of the total GHG emissions in California. Automobiles and light trucks alone contribute almost 30 percent. SB375 indicates that GHGs from automobiles and light trucks can be reduced by new vehicle technology, but significant reductions from a change in land use patterns and improved transportation are necessary. SB375 states, Without improved land use and transportation policy, California will not be able to achieve the goals of AB 32. SB375 does the following: (1) it requires metropolitan planning organizations to include sustainable community strategies in their regional 8 California Air Resources Board (CARB), Expanded List of Discrete Early Action Measures to Reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions in California Recommended for Board Consideration (2007), eamcommitteelist.pdf. 9 Discrete early actions are regulations to reduce greenhouse gas emissions adopted by the CARB Governing Board and enforceable by January 1, CARB, Expanded List of Discrete Early Action Measures (2007). Meridian Consultants ATV Adventure Trails of the Eastern Sierra

10 transportation plans for reducing GHG emissions, (2) it aligns planning for transportation and housing, and (3) it creates specified incentives for the implementation of the strategies. The California Climate Adaptation Strategy (Adaptation Strategy), developed pursuant to Executive Order S , is a policy statement that contains recommendations on how the State can plan for the effects of climate change. This non-regulatory document encourages advanced planning to anticipate changes in conditions such as sea level rise or changing water availability due to climate change. It is relevant to project consideration under CEQA because climate change may result in changes in the environmental setting that would have a potentially significant effect on a proposed project. Climate Change Scoping Plan The CARB approved the Climate Change Proposed Scoping Plan (Scoping Plan) in December The Scoping Plan 11 proposes a comprehensive set of actions designed to reduce overall GHG emissions in California, improve our environment, reduce our dependence on oil, diversify our energy sources, save energy, create new jobs, and enhance public health. As noted in the Scoping Plan, the projected total business-as-usual emissions for year 2020 (estimated as MMTCO2e) must be reduced by approximately 16 percent to achieve the CARB s approved 2020 emission target of 427 MMTCO2e. The Scoping Plan identifies recommended measures for multiple GHG emission sectors and the associated emission reductions needed to achieve the 2020 emissions target; each sector has a different emission reduction target. Most of the measures target the transportation and electricity sectors. As stated in the Scoping Plan, the key elements of the strategy for achieving the 2020 GHG target include: Expanding and strengthening existing energy efficiency programs as well as building and appliance standards Achieving a statewide renewable energy mix of 33 percent Developing a California cap-and-trade program that links with other Western Climate Initiative partner programs to create a regional market system Establishing targets for transportation-related GHG emissions for regions throughout California and pursuing policies and incentives to achieve those targets 11 California Air Resources Board, Climate Change Scoping Plan (2008), /adopted_scoping_plan.pdf. Meridian Consultants ATV Adventure Trails of the Eastern Sierra

11 Adopting and implementing measures pursuant to existing State laws and policies, including California s clean car standards, goods movement measures, and the Low Carbon Fuel Standard Creating targeted fees, including a public goods charge on water use, fees on high global warming potential gases, and a fee to fund the administrative costs of the State s long-term commitment to AB 32 implementation In addition, the Scoping Plan differentiates between capped and uncapped strategies. Capped strategies are subject to the proposed cap-and-trade program. 12 The Scoping Plan states that the inclusion of these emissions within the cap-and-trade program will help ensure that the year 2020 emission targets are met despite some degree of uncertainty in the emission reduction estimates for any individual measure. Uncapped strategies include additional reductions that will not be subject to the cap-and-trade emissions requirements. They are provided as a margin of safety to help achieve required GHG emission reductions. AB 1493 California Assembly Bill 1493 (Pavley), enacted on July 22, 2002, required the CARB to develop and adopt regulations that reduce GHGs emitted by passenger vehicles and light-duty trucks. 13 Regulations adopted by the CARB apply to 2009 and later model-year vehicles. The CARB estimates that the regulation would reduce climate change emissions from the light-duty passenger vehicle fleet by an estimated 18 percent in 2020 and by 27 percent in On June 30, 2009, the USEPA granted a waiver of CAA preemption to California for the State s GHG emission standards for motor vehicles beginning with the 2009 model year. The waiver was published in the Federal Register on July 8, Executive Order S-3-05 Executive Order S-3-05, which was signed by former governor Arnold Schwarzenegger in 2005, proclaims that California is vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. It declares that increased temperatures could reduce the Sierra snowpack, further exacerbate California s air quality problems, 12 The cap-and-trade program is a central element of AB 32 and covers major sources of GHG emissions in the State, such as refineries, power plants, industrial facilities, and transportation fuels. The regulation includes an enforceable GHG cap that will decline over time. CARB will distribute allowances, which are tradable permits, equal to the emission allowed under the cap. 13 California Health and Safety Code, sec and (2002). 14 CARB, Climate Change Emission Control Regulations, fact sheet (Sacramento: California Air Resources Board, December 10, 2004), Meridian Consultants ATV Adventure Trails of the Eastern Sierra

12 and potentially cause a rise in sea levels. To combat those concerns, the Executive Order established the following total greenhouse gas emission targets: 15 By 2010, reduce GHG emissions to 2000 levels. By 2020, reduce GHG emissions to 1990 levels. By 2050, reduce GHG emissions to 80 percent below 1990 levels. The 2050 reduction goal represents what scientists believe is necessary to reach levels that would stabilize the climate. The 2020 goal was established to be an aggressive, but achievable, midterm target. To meet these targets, the governor directed the secretary of the California EPA to lead a Climate Action Team made up of representatives from the Business, Transportation, and Housing Agency; the Department of Food and Agriculture; the Resources Agency; the CARB; the Energy Commission; and the Public Utilities Commission. The Climate Action Team s Report to the Governor in 2006 contains recommendations and strategies to help ensure that the targets in Executive Order S-3-05 are met. 16 Executive Order S The former Governor signed Executive Order S on January 18, The order mandated that a statewide goal be established to reduce the carbon intensity of California s transportation fuels by at least 10 percent by It also established a Low Carbon Fuel Standard for transportation fuels for California. SB In 2006, the State Legislature adopted Senate Bill 1368, which was subsequently signed into law by the governor. 18 SB 1368 directs the California Public Utilities Commission to adopt a performance standard for GHG emissions for the future power purchases of California utilities. In an effort to limit carbon emissions associated with electrical energy consumed in California, this bill prohibits purchase arrangements for energy or periods of longer than 5 years from resources that exceed the emissions of a relatively clean, combined-cycle natural gas power plant. A coal-fired plant cannot meet this standard because such plants emit roughly twice as much carbon as combined-cycle natural gas power plants. Accordingly, the new law will effectively prevent California s utilities from investing in, financially supporting, or purchasing power from new coal plants located in or out of the State. Thus, SB 1368 will 15 USEPA, California: Energy Efficiency Actions, State and Local Climate and Energy Program (2013), /statelocalclimate/state/tracking/individual/ca.html. 16 California Environmental Protection Agency Climate Action Team, Climate Action Team Report to Governor Schwarzenegger and the California Legislature (March 2006), /reports/index.html. 17 California Executive Order S (January 18, 2007), 18 Public Utilities Code, sec (2006). Meridian Consultants ATV Adventure Trails of the Eastern Sierra

13 lead to lower GHG emissions associated with California s energy demand by effectively prohibiting California utilities from purchasing power from out-of-state producers that cannot satisfy the required performance standard for GHG emissions. Senate Bill 97 SB 97 was passed in August 2007, and added Section to the Public Resources Code. Section states: 19 (a) On or before July 1, 2009, the Office of Planning and Research (OPR) shall prepare, develop, and transmit to the Resources Agency guidelines for the mitigation of GHG emissions or the effects of GHG emissions as required by this division, including, but not limited to, effects associated with transportation or energy consumption. (b) On or before January 1, 2010, the Resources Agency shall certify and adopt guidelines prepared and developed by the OPR pursuant to subdivision (a). As required by SB 97, the Governor s Office of Planning and Research prepared and transmitted recommended Amendments to the CEQA Guidelines for GHG emissions to the California Natural Resources Agency on April 13, The Office of Administrative Law reviewed the adopted amendments and the Natural Resources Agency s rulemaking file. The Adopted Amendments were filed with the secretary of state and became effective March 18, The CEQA Amendments provide guidance to public agencies regarding the analysis and mitigation of the effects of GHG emissions in CEQA documents. The CEQA Amendments fit within the existing CEQA framework by amending existing CEQA Guidelines to reference climate change. A new section, CEQA Guidelines Section , was added to assist agencies in determining the significance of GHG emissions. The new section allows agencies the discretion to determine whether a quantitative or qualitative analysis is best for a particular project. This section does not provide guidance to public agencies on how to determine whether the project s estimated GHG emissions are significant or cumulatively considerable. Also amended were CEQA Guidelines Sections and 15130, which address mitigation measures and cumulative impacts, respectively. GHG mitigation measures are referenced in general terms, but no specific measures are identified or required. The revision to the cumulative impact guideline directs public agencies to analyze GHG emissions in an EIR when the incremental contribution of emissions 19 Public Utilities Code, sec (2006). Meridian Consultants ATV Adventure Trails of the Eastern Sierra

14 from a project being reviewed may be cumulatively considerable. However, the determination of when emissions are cumulatively considerable is left to the discretion of the public agency reviewing a proposed project. The Amendments also added Section , which permits programmatic GHG analysis and allows for project-specific analysis to tier off the program level analysis, and the preparation of GHG reduction plans for a city or county. Compliance with a GHG reduction plan can then be used to support a determination that an individual project s contribution to GHG impacts is not cumulatively considerable. In addition, the Amendments revised Appendix F of the CEQA Guidelines, which focuses on Energy Conservation, and Appendix G, which includes the sample Environmental Checklist Form. Sustainable Communities and Climate Protection Act The Sustainable Communities and Climate Protection act, signed into law in September 2008, aligns regional transportation planning efforts, regional GHG reduction targets, and land use and housing allocations. This act requires metropolitan planning organizations (MPOs) to adopt a Sustainable Communities Strategy (SCS) or Alternative Planning Strategy (APS), which prescribe land use allocation in that MPO s regional transportation plan (RTP). CARB, in consultation with MPOs, provided regional reduction targets for GHGs for the years 2020 and Regional and Local Regulations/Plans Desert Renewable Energy Conservation Plan The Desert Renewable Energy Conservation Plan (DRECP) is a vital part of California s renewable energy planning efforts. The plan strives to provide effective protection and conservation of desert ecosystems, while allowing for the appropriate development of renewable energy projects. 20 The DRECP is a collaborative effort developed under the California Natural Community Conservation Planning Act (NCCPA), the Federal Endangered Species Act (FESA), and the Federal Land Policy and Management Act (FLPMA). Key goals include the identification and incorporation of climate change adaptation research, management objectives, and/or policies. Great Basin Unified Air Pollution Control District The Great Basin Unified Air Pollution Control District (GBUAPCD) has no significance thresholds particular to its air basin. 20 The Desert Renewable Energy Conservation Plan (DRECP), What is the DRECP? (2013), Meridian Consultants ATV Adventure Trails of the Eastern Sierra

15 Notwithstanding, CEQA will allow reliance on standards or thresholds promulgated by other agencies. As such, the analysis utilized the values developed by the South Coast Air Quality Management District (SCAQMD) as their standards and thresholds are subject to a nonattainment basin and provide mass rate and measurable change criterion. SCAQMD is currently in the process of updating its Air Quality CEQA Guidelines and has developed an Air Quality Guidance document for addressing air quality issues in general plans. In April 2008, SCAQMD convened a GHG CEQA Significance Threshold Working Group (Working Group) to provide guidance to local lead agencies on determining the significance of GHG emissions identified in CEQA documents. 21 In December 2008, SCAQMD staff presented the SCAQMD Governing Board with a significance threshold for stationary source industrial projects that uses a tiered approach to determine a project s significance, with 10,000 metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent (MTCO2e) as a screening numerical threshold. At the present time, the SCAQMD has not adopted thresholds for nonindustrial projects such as the one analyzed in this Draft EIR. In the latest guidance provided by the Working Group in September 2010, SCAQMD has considered a tiered approach to determine the significance of residential and commercial projects. The draft tiered approach is outlined in the meeting minutes, dated September 29, Tier 1 - If the project is exempt from further environmental analysis under existing statutory or categorical exemptions, there is a presumption of less than significant impacts with respect to climate change. If not, then the Tier 2 threshold should be considered. Tier 2 - consists of determining whether or not the project is consistent with a GHG reduction plan that may be part of a local general plan, for example. The concept embodied in this tier is equivalent to the existing concept of consistency in State CEQA Guidelines subsection 15064(h)(3), 15125(d) or 15152(a). Under this tier, if the proposed project is consistent with the qualifying local GHG reduction plan, it is not significant for GHG emissions. If there is not an adopted plan, then a Tier 3 approach would be appropriate. 21 For more information, see 22 South Coast Air Quality Management District, Greenhouse Gases (GHG) CEQA Significance Thresholds Working Group Meeting #15, minutes (September 29, 2010), /greenhousegases-(ghg)-ceqa-significance-thresholds/year /ghg-meeting-15/ghg-meeting-15-mainpresentation.pdf?sfvrsn=2. Meridian Consultants ATV Adventure Trails of the Eastern Sierra

16 Tier 3 - establishes a screening significance threshold level to determine significance. The Working Group has provided a recommendation of 3,000 CO 2 e tons per year for commercial projects. Inyo County General Plan The Circulation Element contains goals, policies, and implementation measures that serve to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The Circulation Element sets forth a goal for public transportation, Goal PT-1, to provide effective, economically feasible, and efficient public transportation in Inyo County that is safe, convenient, and efficient, reduces the dependence on privately owned vehicles, and meets the identified transportation needs of the County, with emphasis on service to the transportation disadvantaged. 23 The Circulation Element also contains a goal for bicycles and trails, Goal BT-1, Encourage and promote greater use of non-motorized means of personal transportation within the region. 24 The Circulation Element contains the following policy to reduce potential air quality impacts: Policy RH-1.6 Minimize Environmental Impacts. Insure that all transportation projects minimize adverse effects on the environment of the County. Renewable Energy Ordinance The County adopted Inyo County Code (ICC) Title 21, the Renewable Energy Ordinance, in The ordinance supports and encourages the responsible utilization of the County s natural resources, and encourages the use of clean, renewable energy sources. This ordinance focuses mainly on the use of wind and solar resources for alternative energy purposes. County of Inyo Cost, Energy and Service Efficiencies Action Plan The Inyo County Board of Supervisors adopted a Cost, Energy and Service Efficiencies Action Plan in November The plan was developed to guide energy efficiency and reduction at County facilities. 26 The reduction in overall energy use will be tracked annually to analyze the success of projects that have 23 Inyo County General Plan, Circulation Element (2001). 24 Inyo County General Plan, Circulation Element (2001). 25 Inyo County Planning Department, Renewable Energy General Plan Amendment (REGPA) (n.d.), 26 Inyo County Planning Department, Energy Reduction/Renewable Energy (n.d.), Meridian Consultants ATV Adventure Trails of the Eastern Sierra

17 been implemented to date. 27 An energy efficiency savings analysis provides the foundation for an annual GHG inventory. This plan will include management structure to oversee energy programs, goals to reduce energy and GHG, and specific programs to achieve those goals. The GHG portion of the County s energy reduction planning has been developed in conformance with the California Air Resource Board (CARB), as well as national and international standards THRESHOLDS OF SIGNIFICANCE To assist in determining whether a project would have a significant effect on the environment, CEQA identifies criteria for conditions that may be deemed to constitute a substantial or potentially substantial adverse change in physical conditions. Specifically, Appendix G of the State CEQA Guidelines (Environmental Checklist Form) lists the following thresholds, under which a project may be deemed to have a significant effect relating to GHGs: Conflicts with an applicable plan, policy, or regulation adopted for the purpose of reducing the emissions of greenhouse gases? Generates greenhouse gas emissions, either directly or indirectly, that may have a significant impact on the environment? Section of the State CEQA Guidelines provides the following guidance for lead agencies to estimate the amount of greenhouse gases and the factors for determining the significance of impacts: The determination of the significance of greenhouse gas emissions calls for a careful judgment by the lead agency consistent with the provisions in section A lead agency should make a goodfaith effort, based to the extent possible on scientific and factual data, to describe, calculate or estimate the amount of greenhouse gas emissions resulting from a project. A lead agency shall have discretion to determine, in the context of a particular project, whether to: Use a model or methodology to quantify greenhouse gas emissions resulting from a project, and which model or methodology to use. The lead agency has discretion to select the model or methodology it considers most appropriate provided it supports its decision with substantial evidence; and/or Rely on a qualitative analysis or performance based standards. 27 Salas O Brien and the Inyo County Planning Department, County of Inyo, Cost, Energy and Service Efficiencies Action Plan (2012). Meridian Consultants ATV Adventure Trails of the Eastern Sierra

18 A lead agency should consider the following factors, among others, when assessing the significance of impacts from greenhouse gas emissions on the environment: The extent to which the project may increase or reduce greenhouse gas emissions as compared to the existing environmental setting; Whether the project emissions exceed a threshold of significance that the lead agency determines applies to the project. The extent to which the project complies with regulations or requirements adopted to implement a statewide, regional, or local plan for the reduction or mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions. Such requirements must be adopted by the relevant public agency through a public review process and must reduce or mitigate the project s incremental contribution of greenhouse gas emissions. If there is substantial evidence that the possible effects of a particular project are still cumulatively considerable notwithstanding compliance with the adopted regulations or requirements, an EIR must be prepared for the project. As described above, Inyo County has adopted a Cost, Energy and Service Efficiencies Action Plan, developed to guide energy reduction at County facilities. The plan includes an annual greenhouse gas inventory and goals to reduce energy and greenhouse gas emissions PROJECT IMPACTS The environmental impact analysis presented below is based on determinations made in the Initial Study (IS) for impacts considered to be potentially significant and for impacts identified by reviewing agencies, organizations, or individuals commenting on the Notice of Preparation (NOP) as potentially significant (see Responses to NOP, Appendix 2.0-d) Conflicts with an applicable plan, policy, or regulation adopted for the purpose of reducing the emissions of greenhouse gases Impact Analysis The State of California is now undertaking planning for implementing the objectives of the California Global Warming Solutions Act of 2006 (AB 32), which requires a statewide reduction of GHG emissions to year 1990 levels by year Such statewide measures would apply to the direct and indirect emissions from the proposed Project. 28 O Brien and Inyo County Planning Department, Cost, Energy and Service Efficiencies Action Plan (2012). Meridian Consultants ATV Adventure Trails of the Eastern Sierra

19 As previously noted, the Inyo County Board of Supervisors adopted a Cost, Energy and Service Efficiencies Action Plan to guide energy efficiency and reduction at County facilities. 29 This plan includes management structure to oversee energy programs, goals to reduce energy and greenhouse gas, and specific programs to achieve those goals. The GHG portion of the County s energy reduction planning has been developed in conformance with the CARB, as well as national and international standards. Although there is no specific GHG plan that applies to proposed Project direct emissions, the relatively small level of emissions, when compared with the GHG thresholds being considered elsewhere (see Section ), leads to a conclusion that the direct GHG impact is less than significant. Mitigation Measures No mitigation measure is required. Level of Significance after Mitigation Impacts would be less than significant Generate greenhouse gas emissions, either directly or indirectly, that may have a significant impact on the environment Impact Analysis The proposed Project would result in GHG emissions, primarily CO 2, CH 4, and N 2 O, as a result of fuel combustion from motor vehicles and OHV use. The other primary GHGs (HFCs, perfluorocarbons, and sulfur hexafluoride) are typically associated with specific industrial sources and would not be emitted because the Project is not an industrial land use. Motor vehicle air conditioning systems may use HFCs (and hydrochlorofluorocarbons [HCFCs] and chlorofluorocarbon [CFCs] to the extent that they have not been completely phased out at later dates); however, these emissions are not quantified since they would only occur through accidental leaks. It is not possible to estimate the frequency of accidental leaks without some level of speculation. Table 5.7-5, GHG Emissions for Bishop Area Routes, illustrates the GHG missions associated with each of the Bishop Area routes. Table 5.7-6, GHG Emissions for Big Pine Area Routes, illustrates the peak emissions associated with each route. Table 5.7-7, GHG Emissions for Death Valley Road Area Routes, illustrates the GHG emissions associated with each route. Table 5.7-8, GHG Emissions for Aberdeen 29 Inyo County Planning Department, Energy Reduction/Renewable Energy (2013), /ERRE.htm. Meridian Consultants ATV Adventure Trails of the Eastern Sierra

20 Area Routes, illustrates the GHG emissions associated with each route. Table 5.7-9, GHG Emissions for Independence Area Routes, illustrates the GHG emissions associated with each route. Table , GHG Emissions for Lone Pine Area Routes, illustrates the GHG emissions associated with each route. The estimates assume a worst case analysis in that the total potential OHV and transport vehicle use was applied individually to each proposed route. Additionally, the calculations of MMTCO2e are based on the conversion of CO 2 and do not include other GHG indicator pollutants, given that current modeling capabilities do not fully include factors for OHVs. Other GHG constituents such as Nitrous Oxide (NOx) would be minimal in the calculated MMTCO2e calculations. As noted earlier, the SCAQMD has developed draft significance thresholds for GHG sources within its jurisdiction. All commercial/residential land use projects that exceed 3,000 MMTCO2e per year would be considered significant under these draft thresholds. As shown in Tables through , the estimated emissions from each of the proposed combineduse routes ( worst case scenario ) would not exceed the 3,000 MMTCO2e The maximum GHG CO 2 E for any single proposed combined-use route would be MTCO2e for Big Pine Route 1, which is substantially less than the draft threshold. The Bishop Area has the greatest number of routes, and therefore the greatest potential for the release of CO 2 E. When combined, all routes in the Bishop Area would produce MMTCO2e, which is within the MMTCO2e threshold. When all routes in the Big Pine, Death Valley Road, Aberdeen, Independence, and Lone Pine Areas are combined, they produce MMTCO2e, which is also less than the draft threshold. Impacts would be less than significant. Meridian Consultants ATV Adventure Trails of the Eastern Sierra

21 Route Table GHG Emissions for Bishop Area Routes CO 2 (pounds/day) CO 2 e (metric tons/year) Bishop Route Bishop Route Bishop Route Bishop Route Bishop Route Bishop Route Bishop Route Bishop Route Bishop Route Bishop Route Bishop Route Bishop Route Bishop Route Bishop Route Bishop Route Bishop Route Bishop Route Total 1, , Source: Air Quality Dynamics, (Appendix 5.7). Route Table GHG Emissions for Big Pine Area Routes CO 2 (pounds/day) CO 2 e (metric tons/year) Big Pine Route Big Pine Route Big Pine Route Total Source: Air Quality Dynamics, 2014 (Appendix 5.7). Meridian Consultants ATV Adventure Trails of the Eastern Sierra

22 Route Table GHG Emissions for Death Valley Road Area Routes CO 2 (pounds/day) CO 2 e (metric tons/year) Death Valley Road Route Death Valley Road Route Death Valley Road Route Total Source: Air Quality Dynamics, 2014 (Appendix 5.7) Route Table GHG Emissions for Aberdeen Area Routes CO 2 (pounds/day) CO 2 e (metric tons/year) Aberdeen Route Aberdeen Route Aberdeen Route Total Source: Air Quality Dynamics, 2014 (Appendix 5.7). Route Table GHG Emissions for Independence Area Routes CO 2 (pounds/day) CO 2 e (metric tons/year) Independence Route Independence Route Independence Route Independence Route Independence Route Total Source: Air Quality Dynamics, 2014 (Appendix 5.7). Meridian Consultants ATV Adventure Trails of the Eastern Sierra

23 Route Table GHG Emissions for Lone Pine Area Routes CO 2 (pounds/day) CO 2 e (metric tons/year) Lone Pine Route Lone Pine Route Lone Pine Route Lone Pine Route Lone Pine Route Lone Pine Route Lone Pine Route Total Source: Air Quality Dynamics, 2014 (Appendix 5.7). Mitigation Measures No mitigation measure is required. Level of Significance after Mitigation Impacts would be less than significant INDIRECT IMPACTS Impact Analysis As discussed in Section 5.15, Transportation and Traffic, the proposed Project would contribute an additional 1,406 average daily trips during peak seasons (March 21 through June 21, and September 1 through October 31) over the Project area, and an additional 805 average daily trips during off-peak seasons (June 21 through August 31, and November 1 through March 20). This corresponds to an average increase in OHV use throughout the proposed network of combined-use routes of approximately 2.7 percent during peak season, and 1.35 percent during the off-peak season. These additional OHV trips would be dispersed throughout the proposed combined-use routes. While trips would be dispersed throughout the combined-use routes, surrounding lands may experience minor increase in OHV traffic. As previously stated, OHV trips generated from the proposed Project would result in less than significant impacts with respect to GHG emissions. Additionally, the analysis for direct impacts accounts for regional significance, and it is expected that any emissions resulting from the proposed Project would minor and insignificant to surrounding lands. Meridian Consultants ATV Adventure Trails of the Eastern Sierra