DEVELOPMENTS IN ELECTRIFICATION AND IMPLICATIONS FOR THE EUROPEAN ELECTRIC INDUSTRY EU PERSPECTIVE
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1 DEVELOPMENTS IN ELECTRIFICATION AND IMPLICATIONS FOR THE EUROPEAN ELECTRIC INDUSTRY EU PERSPECTIVE Challenges in Electricity Decarbonisation EPRI IEA workshop Paris Matti Supponen DG ENER unit B2: Wholesale markets Energía
2 Balancing, Real Time Target Model Coordination of ATCs (Flow Based and/or NTC) Flow Based where more efficient Harmonised GCT Flow Based where more efficient Explicit Auctions Physical and/or Financial Transmission Rights Futures on Y+1 Monthly Y+1 Day-Ahead Implicit Allocation Price Coupling Intraday Allocation Implicit Continuos Trading and/or Implicit Auction Forward market Physical market
3 Day-ahead market coupling status in October 2017 REGIONAL DAY AHEAD IMPLICIT AUCTIONS North West Europe (NWE) Poland Ireland and Northern Ireland Czech Slovak Hungary-Romania Price coupling PL coupled with NWE through SwePol (and LitPol Dec. 2017) All Island market, single price zone Price coupling Source: APX, updated by Matti Supponen Energy
4 CLEAN ENERGY FOR ALL EUROPEANS ELEMENTS OF THE PACKAGE A SET OF COHERENT MEASURES " In essence the new package is about tapping our green growth potential across the board" Commissioner Miguel Arias Cañete (2016) Energy Union Governance New Electricity Market Design (including Risk Preparedness) 4
5 CLEAN ENERGY FOR ALL EUROPEANS General decrease in energy consumption and penetration of renewable energy forms General decrease in gross inland consumption, in line with energy efficiency objectives Gross inland energy consumption (Mtoe) Renewable energy forms increase in absolute and relative terms Natural gas consumption only sightly decreases Oil remains the main energy carrier, notably due to demand in transport sector Source: PRIMES modelling, NTUA, E3M-Lab
6 CLEAN ENERGY FOR ALL EUROPEANS The EU power generation mix changes, in favour of renewables EU power generation (net) by fuel (TWh) Significant development of renewable energy (mostly solar and wind) Decline of electricity generation from solid fuels (mostly coal) Gas-fired generation decreases until 2020, but increases thereafter Nuclear energy decreases slightly Source: PRIMES modelling, NTUA, E3M-Lab
7 Energy
8 Customer in the middle Energy
9 Market versus regulation Regulation Unbundling Regulated prices Energy efficiency targets RES targets Subsidies Capacity payments Priority dispatch Redispatching Mandatory ancillary services Tariff structures Regional Operational Centers (ROCs) Regulation/Market Emissions trading Trading of green certificates RES auctions Legend: No major change Abolish Improve To the market Energy Market Competition Free price formation Markets for ancillary services Right to selfproduce/-consume and store electricity Right to be aggregated 9
10 Storage in cartoons Steam Pressure Storage 50.2 Hz Water Pressure Storage Chemical Energy Storage ~ 50.1 Hz 50 Hz ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ 49.9 Hz 49.8 Hz Kinetic Energy 10
11 SMART AND CLEAN ENERGY FOR ALL BACKGROUND UNLOCKING THE UNTAPPED DEMAND-RESPONSE POTENTIAL 160 GW Theoretical demand response potential in GW Theoretical demand response potential today 20GW Demand response activated today 16 Member States maintain some form of energy price regulation for households. In most Member States demand response is limited due to market entry barriers towards new service providers, such as independent aggregators (which aggregate individual flexibility). Unlike transmission system operators, distribution system operators cannot manage their network in a flexible manner to reduce costs for the consumer. Phase-out regulated prices, only duly justified exemptions allowed. Ensure fair market access for independent aggregators and other new service providers. Allow flexible management of distribution networks through curtailment of renewables and demand response solutions. Set clear principles for DSOs to ensure neutrality. WAY FORWARD Competition within the retail energy market is key for unlocking efficient consumer behaviour and keeping the cost of the energy transition at check.
12 Smart meters and grids Energy
13 Aggregators Energy Source: SEDC 2017
14 New relations between players Energy
15 DSO tariff reform Energy Source: Thema report on capacity adequacy for the Nordic Council of Ministers
16 Regional TSO coordination 1 2a = Regional Operations Centre (ROC) = Sub Centre of a Regional Operations Centre = Border between Regional Operations Centres Functions for ROCs Current functions, based on voluntary action or legislation in force Agreed, implementation by 2020 Proposed in the Winter package, implementation by 2030 Operational Security Analyses Short-term Adequacy Analyses Role in sizing and procurement of balancing reserves Common Grid Model Outage Coordination Emergency & restoration coordination 16 Energy Capacity Calculation Support on assessment of emergency and restoration plans Training and certification /MS
17 Energy
18 Thank you for your Attention! Energy
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