Status and Challenges of the German Energiewende

Transcription

1 Status and Challenges of the German Energiewende Prof. Dr. Andreas Löschel Westfälische Wilhelms University Münster Energy Colloquium, University of Oxford, 23 May / 16

2 The German Energy Turn Energiewende end 1990s: fundamental decision for renewable energy system 2010: Energy Concept of German Government Securing a reliable, economically viable and environmentally sound energy supply is one of the great challenges / 16of the 21st century. [ ] 2011: Fukushima and decision to phase out nuclear by 2022 Energiewende needs monitoring: The German government will use scientifically tested monitoring to determine whether actual progress is within the corridor marked out by the above development path and to what extent action needs to be taken. 2/ 16

3 Monitoring the Energy Transition monitoring implementation of the energy reforms.html 3/ 16

4 Long Term Targets of the Energy Transition Source: BMWi (2016) 4/ 16

5 Where do we stand? Baseline Zielbasisjahr year to 2015 bis to bis to bis Final energy productivity Heat consumption in buildings Final energy consumption in transport Primary energy consumption Gross electricity consumption Greenhouse gas emissions 4 Changes in % per year Final energy productivity Heat consumption in buildings Final energy consumption in transport Primary energy consumption Gross electricity consumption Greenhouse gas emissions Overall assessment by the Expert Commission Share of renewables in gross electricity consumption Share of renewables in gross final energy consumption Renewable energy targets Share of renewables in heat consumption Share of renewables in transportation Probability of target attainment by 2020: Probable Uncertain Improbable Source: 5Löschel et al. (2016) 5/ 16

6 Electricity generation by energy source Gross electricity generation by energy source (in TWh) renewable sources Source: Working Group on Energy Balances, August 2016 Hydropower Wind Biomass Source: Working Group on Renewable Energy Statistics, March / 16

7 Renewable support effective Renewable Energy Sources Act (EEG): long term fixed technology specific feed in tariffs with privileged access to market and obligation for network connection: 20,5 GW ( 04) to 104 GW ( 16) Installed capacity EEG 2014: reduction in FIT + targets for capacity increase per year wind onshore: 2,5 GW MW (net 3 5 GW gross,), 2015: 3,6 GW wind offshore: 6,5 GW by 2020 (15 GW 2030), 2015: 3284 MW photovoltaic: MW (gross), 2015: 1444 MW (gross) biomass: < 100 MW (gross), 14 MW (gross) EEG 2016: bidding system for renewable investments from 2017 onwards (quantity based), 2015 not PV < 1MW, wind offshore 2021/24 renewables 98 GW limit expansion of wind power in some areas fossil fuels 97 GW nuclear 10GW technology neutral auctions tested Hydropower Wind Biomass Source: Working Group on Renewable Energy Statistics, March / 16

8 Auctioning system in 2017 Mandatory direct marketing Switch from fixed remuneration to floating market premium EEG 2014 EEG 2017 Shift to auctioning Technology specific remuneration (Determined by competition) No exposition to market price risks No competition between different technologies Strong increase in administratively determined parameters Results of 2017 auctions: Remuneration, guaranteed over a period of 20 years Market revenues (price) (Administratively determined) Floating market premium Market revenues (price) Remuneration, guaranteed over a period of 20 years Floating market premium (Determined by competition at the beginning) 1st Offshore Wind Auction 1490 MW highest price EUR 60 / MWh lowest price EUR 0 / MWh average EUR 4.4 / MWh 1st onshore wind tender 807 MW average successful bid EUR 57.1 / MWh 8/ 16

9 Nuclear phase out and capacity Source: BNetzA 9/ 16

10 Grid expansion necessary, but difficult Necessary grid extension (transmission and distribution) because of local and temporal intermittency as well as increasing average distance (depends on investment location, cross border transmisison, demand management, supply flex.) investment costs of about bn (+ 8 bn underground cable) not so much an economic problem, but a problem of acceptability EnLAG/NABEG: net development plan Netzentwicklungsplan (NEP) with TSO on three scenarios defines high priority projects

11 EnLAG is lagging a long way behind plans Completion / km Ursprungspfad Original Path (Best Case) 2016 By the end of km had been completed (107 km less than forecasted in 2013, and 891 km less than originally intended) The situation is similar with respect to projects of the Federal Requirement Plan 11 / 16

12 Affordability: aggregate end user expenditure * EUR billion Total expenditure [1] Government induced elements Electricity taxes [2] Concession fees [3] EEG surcharge (EEG differential costs) [4] KWK G [5] Levies (Sections 17f, 18 EnWG) [6] Government regulated elements Transmission grid charges [7] Distribution grid charges [8] Market driven elements Market value EEG electricity [9] Generation and sales [10] *Partly provisional 12 / 16

13 Distribution of costs between hh & industry Average Electricity Price for Households Average Electricity Price for Industry (no exemptions) Energy intensive Industry Source: BMWi (2016) 13 / 16

14 Competitiveness: Energy per unit costs Individual energy carriers Germany Electricity INTERNATIONAL Coals DEU Crude oil Natural gas 100 EU28 BEL 100 Diesel ESP Fuel oil 50 FRA 50 Electricity Other coking and petroleum products Other energy carriers 0 *Projection * 2015* GBR ITA NLD 0 *Projection * 2015* The unit costs of electricity for manufacturing firms have risen in Germany since 2011 by approx. 5% on average, but have declined by approx. 2% in Europe 14 / 16

15 Conclusion: Energiewende German elections in September 2017 substantial gaps in 2020/2030: climate target and efficiency climate policy options focus on ETS reform and non ETS sectors coal phase out considered CO 2 pricing and energy tax reform (electricity tax, FIT, ) renewable policies to be developed further (tech, grid, market price risk) sector coupling: electricity, heat, transport grid extension as a bottleneck (also in EU): grid charges, market splitting total costs are still under control even though prices increased, costs for industry important (also consideration of energy poverty) willingness to pay for climate measures in Germany to be seen acceptance unclear European vision is necessary harmonization of renewable support, grid extension and further development of internal market for energy 15 / 16

16 Massive challenges ahead: January 2017 Conventional power plants Hydro Demand Quelle: Agora Energiewende Stand / 16