Seminar on Renewable Energy Technology implementation in Thailand Experience transfer from Europe

Transcription

1 Seminar on Renewable Energy Technology implementation in Thailand Experience transfer from Europe co-organised by the Delegation of the European Union to Thailand and the Department of Alternative Energy Development and Efficiency, Ministry of Energy Electricity Transmission System Design: European Ten Years Network Development Plan, Towards a European Electricity Market & The Danish Wind Case Peter Jørgensen, VP, Energinet.dk 1

2 Agenda 1. European Transmission System Planning ENTSO-E s Ten Year Network Development Plan 2. Towards a European Electricity Market From national to Pan-European Markets 3. The Danish Case: Achieving 28% Wind Power and preparing for 50% by

3 Location of Energinet.dk Energinet.dk 3

4 Facts about Energinet.dk Independent public enterprise under the Danish Ministry of Climate and Energy Owns and operates the electricity and natural gas transmission systems and a natural gas storage Co-owns Nord Pool Spot, Nord Pool Gas and the European Market Coupling Company The consumers contribute to our activities through tariffs charged to their electricity and gas bills Our finances are based on a break-even principle 4

5 Core Tasks for Energinet.dk Ensure short- and long-term security of supply Ensure well-functioning markets Ensure well-functioning emergency preparedness Build, own, operate and maintain gas and electricity transmission grids 5

6 Agenda 1. European Transmission System Planning ENTSO-E s Ten Year Network Development Plan 2. Towards a European Electricity Market From national to Pan-European Markets 3. The Danish Case: Achieving 28% Wind Power and preparing for 50% by

7 ENTSO-E s Ten Year Network Development Plan TYNDP 2012

8 European transmission grid key role in reaching the EU policy goals Energy policy goals Sustainability/GHG: More renewables, further from the loads More heating and mobility with electricity Competitiveness/market integration: More long-distance flows Security of supply More optimal resources sharing

9 ENTSO-E - Where are we heading to?

10 Why a Ten-Year Network Development Plan? Regulation (EC) 714/2009: In order to ensure greater transparency regarding the entire electricity transmission network in the [Union], the ENTSO for Electricity should draw up, publish and regularly update a non-binding [Union]-wide ten-year network development plan

11 The 3rd Package defines the TYNDP EU-TYNDP Generation adequacy outlook 5 yr up to 15yr ( 2025!) modelling integrated networks Scenario development Assessment of resilience Based on reasonable needs of system users Identify investments gaps Review barriers to increase cross border capacities arising from approval procedures Regulators check consistency Build on nat. gen. adequacy Outlooks and invest. plans Take into account Regional Investment Plans Nat. TYNDPs Existing and forecast supply demand Efficient measures to guarantee adequacy & SoS Indicate main transmission infrastructure to be built Based on reasonable assumptions about evolution of generation Supply consumption and exchanges

12 The TYNDP 2012 package a vision for the European extra high voltage grid non-binding updated every 2 years based on common market and network studies generation adequacy outlook a comprehensive document suite that includes Ten-Year Network Development Plan Scenario Outlook and Adequacy Report 6 Regional Investment Plans Consultation: 1 Mar - 26 Apr. Final release: 5 July

13 Overall schedule TYNDP 2012 Jun 2010 Jan 2011 Jun 2011 Dec 2011 March 2012 Jun 2012 TYNDP 2010 NREAPs New scenario SAF 2011 Scenarios Methodologies & assessment criteria Regional workshops RgIP & TYNDP results 6 RgIPs + TYNDP reports Final reports Workshop SOAF 2012 report Consultation

14 High level of interaction with our stakeholders and members ENTSO-E external workshops (10) Acer ENTSO-E meetings (8) ENTSO-E internal workshops (11) 29 Internal/ external workshops for the TYNDP 2012 TYNDP TYNDP stakeholders working group

15 MW A dense 2-year long study process Scenario elaboration & validation Market studies Network studies Project identification & valuation Reports compilation at stake timely delivery consistent results limited resources [MW] DE - Correlation between wind and spillage time-series May Peak Generation; 0 CCGT; 70 COAL; 0 LIGNITE; 4 Annual generation CSW Region (TWh) - EU Grid 2012 Miscellaneous; 95 spillage wind solar Total Hydro; 116 NUCLEAR; 501 Duration curve of market flows in 2020 DE-AT Wind; 157 Export DE GWh 26 % of the time at maximum Import DE GWh 10 % of the time at maximum Hydro ROR; 60 Hydro STOR; 57 Solar; Hours

16 Main deliverables TYNDP 2012 Market studies NTCs 2010 G/L dev. areas + technical needs in 2020 (+) Expected bulk flow patterns Network studies Transmission adequacy Proposed projects Grid transfer capability increases

17 Renewable energies boom by 2020 provides 38% of the electricity demand 1/3 of present generation capacity to be replaced to meet demand in the coming decade Peak load growth Grid length development

18 Around 100 bottlenecks in the transmission system by 2020 RES is triggering 80% of assets growth

19 2020 Europe 17% increase in infrastructure By end and beyond

20 2020 Europe additional km lines

21 About 100 billion in the coming 10 years 100 billion investment on grids /MWh in Europe over the 10- year period, 2% of the bulk power prices, less than 1% of the total end-users electricity bill billion billion Austria 1.1 Ireland 3.9 Belgium 1.9 Latvia 0.4 Bosnia-Herzegovina 0.0 Lithuania 0.7 Bulgaria 0.2 Luxembourg 0.3 Croatia 0.2 Montenegro 0.4 Czech Republic 1.7 Netherlands 3.3 Cyprus 0.0 Norway 6.5 Denmark 1.4 Poland 2.9 Estonia 0.3 Portugal 1.5 Finland 0.8 Romania 0.7 France 8.8 Serbia 0.2 FYROM 0.1 Slovakia 0.3 Germany 30.1 Slovenia 0.3 Greece 0.3 Spain 4.8 Hungary 0.1 Sweden 2.0 Iceland 0.0 Switzerland 1.7 Italy 7.1 United Kingdom 19.0 Total ENTSOE perimeter 104

22 TYNDP - Multi-criteria projects assessment

23 A direct support to the European Energy policy goals Social and economic welfare RES integration <30M /y neutral <30M /y (and additionally includes direct connection of new generation) M /y M /y (and additionally includes direct connection of new generation) >100M /y direct RES connection <500 MW direct RES connection >500 MW Accomodation of inter-area flows triggered by RES Security of Supply CO2 mitigation neutral minor(no specific need) medium(solved <10 years) high (solved>10 years) mitigation<500 Kt/y mitigation>500 Kt/y

24 Projects with high technical performances Technical resilience Flexibility minor medium high minor medium high Losses variation higher losses no clear trend lower losses Additional investment reduces overall losses

25 Building the necessary infrastructure 3 main problems 1. Permitting and public acceptance Slow and cumbersome permitting procedures the main obstacle for delivering investments Public acceptance cannot be improved by TSOs alone 2. Legislative implementation Some compatibility among the 27 MS energy policies Some stability in EU legislation 3. Attractive financing framework real return in line with similar risk profiles businesses incentives for activities really managed by TSOs legislation and regulation in line with 20 to 50 years assets

26 Energy Priorities Regulation helping the grid development A timely legislative initiative addressing the most urgent issues Huge step forward to streamline permitting procedures Positive but unfocused effort to facilitate investments on the transmission grid Cost-allocation is just part of the overall picture cost-benefit analysis not a panacea Incentivizing TSOs to deliver on time should be the priority Regional approach for decision making with TYNDP as the main starting point Projects of Common Interest

27 A 10-year plan to meet EU goals > 100 projects, km, approx. 104 bn of investments Notwithstanding non pan-european significance projects +1.3% per year grid length development despite a major upcoming shift in generation mix to accommodate wider, stronger, more volatile power flows One third of the present generation capacity to be built in the coming decade (i.e. +3% per year) A solid basis for the Project of Common Interest selection Social acceptance is still the major challenge! 1 in TYNDP 2010 investment projects are delayed because of longer than expected authorization procedures

28 Agenda 1. European Transmission System Planning ENTSO-E s Ten Year Network Development Plan 2. Towards a European Electricity Market From national to Pan-European Markets 3. The Danish Case: Achieving 28% Wind Power and preparing for 50% by

29 European agreement on target models An expert group led by the European regulators agreed in 2010 on target models for day ahead and intraday in Europe The target models form the basis for common European day ahead and intraday markets to ensure the development of the internal energy market 29

30 Target model: European-wide single price coupling 2014 One price calculation for the entire area Cooperation between TSOs and Power Exchanges 30

31 Regional pilot project i North West Europe status and next step 1 Step: interim solution Nordic area central West Europe November 2010 Interim Tight Volume Coupling (ITVC), based on the EMCC model Austria coupled to Germany Estonia coupled to Nordic area April 2010 Poland coupled to Nordic area Dec GB price coupled to Netherlands via BritNed April step: Enduring solution North West Europe (NWE) Price coupling Expected end of

32 Interim regional solution based on volume coupling Volume coupling implemented on all interconnectors between the Nordic area and CWE in November 2010 Two separate calculations, where volume and price is calculated by two different algorithms 32

33 Enduring solution based on price coupling Why price coupling? Optimal use of interconnectors capacity is used efficiently One calculation for the entire area less risk for adverse flows Social welfare optimisation Requirement in future European regulation Framework Guideline Capacity Allocation and Congestion Management prepared by the European regulators (ACER) (29 July 2011) Network code Capacity Allocation and Congestion Management prepared by the European TSOs (ENTSO-E) (September 2012) The Commission adopts the Network Codes (Comitology) (Start 1 Q 2013) Regulation (Legally binding codes) 33

34 PX Market Coupling Initiative The power exchanges play an important part in the future European market coupling solution 6 PXs (APX-ENDEX, Belpex, EPEX Spot, GME, OMEL og Nord Pool Spot) have agreed on a solution for the implementation of price coupling Price Coupling of Regions (PCR) Common algorithm, common core systems and procedures, joint PX governance Decentral solution where all PXs implement the algorithm Responsibility for the calculation rotates between the PXs Pre-coupling og post-coupling will be handled locally ACER has asked ENTSO-E to assess efficiency, manageability and reliability of the PCR-solution 34

35 ENTSO-E Regional NWE intraday project Regional intraday implementation project as frontrunner for a common European intraday market 2012 interim solution 2014 enduring solution: the target model Shared order book to be provided with bids from all PXs Sophisticated products to replace OTC trade Capacity management module to handle real-time information on available x-border capacity Automatic matching of all bids by one unique algorithm 35

36 Agenda 1. European Transmission System Planning ENTSO-E s Ten Year Network Development Plan 2. Towards a European Electricity Market From national to Pan-European Markets 3. The Danish Case: Achieving 28% Wind Power and preparing for 50% by

37 The Danish Electricity System today The Danish electricity system development and policy From primary to local generation Danish Energy Agreement, March 2012: Higher energy efficiency Biomass and heat pumps for district heating RES conversion in buildings and industry Smart Grids and new interconnectors Improved framework for biogas Electricity and biomass in transportation Wind power Offshore: +1,000 MW Near-shore: MW On-shore: MW 50% wind power by 2020 Long term goal: 100% renewable by 2050 Political vision (Government platform): 100% renewable electricity and heating sectors by % wind power in

38 The Danish Electricity System today Power balance Jan Two synchronous areas West: Consumption MW Primary power station Local CHP plant Wind turbines import/export [MW] 950/1000 MW 680/740 MW Primary power stations Local CHP plants Wind turbines 3400 MW 1860 MW 2840 MW 4700 MW East: 1300/1700 MW Consumption Primary power stations MW 3800 MW 600 MW Local CHP plants Wind turbines 640 MW 960 MW 1600 MW 950/1500 MW 600 MW 38

39 The Danish Electricity System today 39

40 The Danish Electricity System today Wind power already exceeds hourly demand today! 120 % Wind power as percentage of consumption in Denmark West, Wind Energy coverage in DK West: 28% 0 jan-2010 feb-2010 apr-2010 jun-2010 jul-2010 sep-2010 okt-2010 dec

41 The Danish Electricity System today System balancing today Large market area: Robust international transmission grid Coherent electricity markets Flexible generation system: Coal fired power plants operating down to 10% of rated output Combined heat and power plants with heat accumulators and electric boilers Grid codes ensure capability of wind farms to support the system Efficient system operation procedures and tools: Specialized IT-systems for forecasting, system balancing and handling of distributed generation 41

42 The Electricity Market The electricity market Import The four market places: Production regulation Spot (day-ahead) Intraday Regulating power Reserves 10 l Electricitysystem Consumption Nonregulating production Export 42

43 The Electricity Market The phases of the daily power market Bids to Nord Pool s spot market Prices and volumes published by Nord Pool Operational schedule send to Energinet.dk Bids to the intraday market Bids to the regulating market TSO maintains physical balance with regulating power 12:00 13:00 15:00 Day ahead Operating day Trade Operation Settlement 43

44 The Electricity Market The regulating market - bridging the financial and physical system Financial system Regulating power Physical system Regulating power bids listed in price order Up and down regulation bids are activated by TSO in accordance with price list Marginal bid in one hour determines the price for all suppliers 44

45 The Electricity Market Prices in the regulating market 80 EUR/MWh 70 Up-regulation price Spot price Down-regulation price 0 jan- 03 apr- 03 jul- 03 okt- 03 jan- 04 apr- 04 jul- 04 okt- 04 jan- 05 apr- 05 jul- 05 okt- 05 jan- 06 apr- 06 jul- 06 okt- 06 jan- 07 apr- 07 jul- 07 okt

46 Wind Power Forecasting Wind Power Forecast Challenges Having 3,2 GW wind power installed in the system, a change of 1 m/s in wind speed can result in a change of 450 MW power production. The meteorological forecasts rarely agree and we constantly look for the best combination. 46

47 Wind Power Forecasting Wind Power Forecast Challenges A weather front passing the country 30 min late can easily mean a lack of several 100 MW Off shore production can result in very steep production ramps 47

48 Wind Power Forecasting Wind power forecasting Two forecasting tools are used one external and one internal: External forecast: Combined forecast based on 4 meteorological prognoses hour forecast Hourly update Internal forecast: Combined forecast based on 3 meteorological prognoses. Day ahead (12-36 hour) and short term (0-6 hour) forecast Several updates pr. hour We are constantly improving and looking for new competitive forecast providers! 48

49 System Operation Balancing and Grid security Energinet.dk has developed two essential IT systems to manage the large amount of sustainable generation: Operational Planning System: providing information on imbalances in the coming hours on the basis of forecasts, generation plans and on-line measurements Distributed Generation Management System (DGM): providing the basis for forecasting renewable generation and grid security calculations - load flow 49

50 System Operation Operational Planning System Providing on-line up-dated forecast for system imbalances: Predicted Balance 50

51 System Operation Operational Planning System Imbalance = Consumption - Wind Power - Local CHP - Primary Power Stations +/- Exchange Consumption, Wind Power and a minor share of Local CHP are based on regularly up-dated forecasts Primary Power Stations, most Local CHPs and Exchange are based on schedules send and continuously updated by the market players The dispatcher buys and sells regulating power from the regulating market to bring the imbalance close to zero Remaining minor imbalances are balanced by automatic reserves 51

52 System Operation Distributed Generation Management System 6300 generators on 4600 plants 18 Balance Responsible Parties for Production (PBR) 4525 plants without individual schedules Primary power stations Local CHP plants Wind turbines 75 plants with individual schedules 52

53 System Operation DGM in real time mode generation forecast Balancing area Area 1 Area 2 Substation 1 Substation 2 Substation 3 Direction of data flow PBR A A A B A A B A B 53

54 Direction of data flow System Operation DGM in offline mode - for grid security calculation Forecast models Area 1 Area 2 Substation 1 Substation 2 Substation 3 54

55 Preparing for 50% wind power Instruments to effectively integrate large amounts of fluctuating renewable energy in the power system Production Instruments 50%? 50% Wind By Strong transmission grid and interconnections - and well functioning energy markets Flexibility in production and consumption. Close integration with the heat, gas and transportation sector Smart Grid to implement intelligence in the power system 55

56 Preparing for 50% wind power Grid planning is long term! available sites for 4.6 GW offshore wind power 56

57 Preparing for 50% wind power Development of the transmission grid Interconnector projects Reinforcement and reconfiguration of transmission grid Last new overhead line Underground cabling Combined offshore wind farm connection and interconnector First offshore grid! 57

58 Preparing for 50% wind power Coherent and flexible energy systems 50% of electricity demand energy electricity 58

59 Preparing for 50% wind power Integration of energy systems synergy between gas and electricity Substantial storage capacity in the gas system Competitive peak-load capacity from RE-Gas Optimal use of bio resources 59

60 Smart Grid is the future Smart Grid puzzle to the future RES electricity system 60

61 EDISON Large scale EV project in Denmark Electric Vehicle Power Exchange Power Dealer Balance Responsible Electric vehicles in a Distributed and Integrated market using Sustainable energy and Open Networks 61

62 Preparing for 50% wind power EcoGrid EU a prototype for the future energy system Demonstration of an electricity system with more than 50% wind power and demand flexibility to optimize the utilization of RES Bornholm is a unique place for testing costumers will participate Test of a 5-minute local markets Test of new market products Co-operation with other Smart Grid projects on the island Local support Bright Green Island vision 62

63 Preparing for 50% wind power 63

64 Conclusions Efficient integration of large-scale wind power through: A strong international transmission grid to trade and balance in a wide geographical area Efficient international electricity markets with clear price signals and trading close to real-time Coherent energy systems electricity, gas, heating and transportation - to increase flexibility and economic efficiency and reduce environmental impact High flexibility in generation and demand with technical connection requirements for all resources Grid Codes A revised power system control architecture improved control and observability of distributed resources - SmartGrids Efficient solutions through Pan-European coordination! 64

65 Thank you for your attention! 65