Rooftop Solar Boom in QLD, Australia GABRIELE SARTORI, DIRECTOR FUTURECARBON AUSTRALIA

Transcription

1 Rooftop Solar Boom in QLD, Astralia GABRIELE SARTORI, DIRECTOR FUTURECARBON AUSTRALIA

2 Rooftop Solar Boom in QLD What is it? What drives it? What impact does it have on: Demand Existing generators Networks Prices Where to from here?

3 The Rooftop Boom in QLD We have passed the 2 gigawatt benchmark this year 549,034 rooftop solar installations end of 2017 One in three hoseholds have solar panels Solar rooftop is the state s largest sorce of energy Solar is the cheapest way to generate electricity org.a/syst em/files/ /apo- nid pdf

4 Astralian PV installations since April 2001: total capacity (kw) As of 31 March over 1.84 million PV installations in Astralia - combined capacity of over 7.8GW

5 Solar PV Boom in QLD Solar Hoseholds: 32% - QLD 31% - SA 25% - WA 15% - NSW 14% - ACT 11% - NT /9a3734e bdc99d57847.pdf

6 Rooftop solar PV installed Sorce: Clean Energy Reglator, Postcode data for small-scale installations

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8 The NEM & QLD The NEM 5 interconnected systems Wholesale market QLD Generators ($8Billion) Stanwell CS Energy ERM Transmission (3.9Billion) Powerlink Distribtion ($13Billion) Ergon Energex Energy QLD Retail Ergon & others

9 Astralian electricity generation fel mix Sorce: Department of the Environment and Energy (2017) Astralian Energy Statistics, Table O

10 QLD power generation

11 What drives the boom in QLD? Policies responding to an increased debate on climate change Federal Renewable Energy Target established 2001 o Large scale - more than 100kW o Small scale 100kW and less, Solar panel price drop cktake/solar-energy Solar Bons Scheme Net FiT established in 2008, $0.44/kWh Electricity price rises since 2007 de to rising network costs Excellent DNI MJ/m2/day General policy ncertainty and frstration with Federal and State politics

12 Hosehold energy price index

13 PV systems and system prices

14 Qeensland Government Powering QLD a $1.16billion plan Commitment to a 50% renewable energy target by 2030 (4,000-5,500MW of new large-scale renewable energy generation capacity) Maintain affordability and secrity in the transition to 50% renewable energy generation 1 million solar rooftops or 3,000MW of distribted solar PV by 2020 Provide electricity price relief by investing $770 million to cover the cost of the Solar Bons Scheme Facilitate the next wave of p to 400 MW of diversified renewable energy, inclding 100MW of energy storage throgh a reverse action Improve large-scale project facilitation, planning and network connections Deliver a $386m Powering North Qeensland Plan to strengthen and diversify the north s energy spply Contine to advocate for stable, integrated national climate and energy policies

15 Solar PV Impact on demand NEM Operational Consmption, sent-ot (GWh) 260, , , , , , , , , , ,000 ESOO 2010 ESOO 2011 NEFR 2012 NEFR 2013 NEFR 2014 NEFR 2015 NEFR 2016 EFI 2017 ESOO17 March 2018 EFI Update Actal ESOO18 Operational consmption forecasts verss actal, AEMO 2018 Electricity Statement of Opportnities.pdf

16 Impact of solar PV on average network demand Jne and Jly weekday shapes Jne and Jly weekend shapes Sorce: Powerlink, Transmission Annal Planning Report 2017

17 Lowest demand now occrring early afternoon, not 4am Sorce: Compiled by Stanwell from data obtained via NEO 4.10

18 Solar PV Impact on Lota Sbstation in Smmer data/assets/pdf_file/0004/ /Distribtion-Annal-Planning-Report pdf

19 Qld sets demand record again...and again...and again Sorce: Powerlink Qeensland

20 Impact on existing generation solar is clipping their margins Rooftop Solar rose from 5MW in 2009 to 860MW in 2013 and in GW In Jly 2014 the wholesale price, normally arond $40-$50/MWh into negative territory, in the middle of the day Stanwell failed to make any money from its 4,000MW of coal and gas fired generation That changed when the LNG trains in North QLD added 300/400GWh demand in 2015/2016 Negative prices retrned in Jne % from solar, 128MW large and 1270MW solar rooftop 4,000-5,500MW RE by 2030 to meet the 50% RET Generators reach economic end of life

21 Impact on Powerlink Consmption will increase an average of 0.4% per annm over the next 10 years from 50,190GWh in 2016/17 to 52,459GWh in 2026/27. Powerlink s 2017 forecast is lower than the previos year de to increases in the capacity of solar PV farms. In 2016/17, Powerlink finalised seven VRE generator Connection and Access Agreements totalling 718MW. Renewable Energy Zones Powering North Qeensland Plan.

22 Impact on DNSP Energy Qeensland The QLD DNSPs integrated the highest penetration of residential solar PV in Astralia more than 2 GW in 2018 every third hosehold Solar PV will contine to grow; batteries and electric vehicles will emerge Fears of death spiral Narrowing and lowering the periods of peak demand From a centralised one-way electricity flow to a decentralised system with many HH feeding power back to the grid Hge technical challenges cased by major electricity flows that reverse in a millisecond voltage srges, inverters trip, cstomers can get disconnected from the grid, appliances get damaged Integrated System Plan (ISP) Sbmissions/Energy-Qeensland EQL-Sbmission-AEMO-Integrated-System-Plan-consltation.pdf

23 Technical isses of RE Integration

24 Impact on electricity prices Basic economics the more spply, the lower the prices Negative wholesale prices will be become normal in winter AEMC 2017 prices will fall as more PV and wind comes online The cost of PV and wind power is now in the range A$55-70/MWh - cheaper than new-bild coal and gas nits. Electricity cold be prodced from large-scale plants for $30-50/MWh Coal fired electricity generation (existing) costs increased from $30/MWh to $55/MWh in 2017 de to the increase of coal prices

25 Setting the spot price in the NEM Generator bid stack 5000 Megawatts $60 $51 $48 $38 $35 Generator offer price ($ per MWh) Five minte periods in a half-hor trading interval 4.30 Generator 1 Generator 4 Generator 2 Generator 5 Generator 3 NEM demand Chapter 1 - National electricity markets A3

26 Electricity price setting in QLD Retail electricity prices in Soth East Qeensland (SEQ) were dereglated on 1 Jly Electricity prices in SEQ are now determined by electricity retail providers, with cstomers able to choose between standard retail contracts and competitive market retail contracts. This means that in SEQ, the Qeensland Competition Athority no longer reglates retail electricity prices for small bsiness cstomers (those consming less than 100 megawatt-hors (MWh) per year). Instead, retailers will pblish their contract offers online and on the Astralian Energy Reglator's independent price comparator website Energy Made Easy, where cstomers can search and compare available prodct offerings. Retail prices for large cstomers (those consming more than 100 megawatt-hors (MWh) per year) in SEQ have been dereglated since In regional Qeensland prices still apply to small bsiness cstomers (those sing less than 100 MWh per year) in and are set annally by the Qeensland Competition Athority.

27 Regional QLD reglated electricity prices etattachment/2a52665e c-b2de- 0b5fbb2a09ad/Factsheet-forecast-smallbsiness-electricity-p.aspx gov.a/sites/defalt /files/content/8c654 c85-392d-4970-bb70-3ce64e452368/2017- Price-Trends- infographic-qld- FINAL.PDF

28 Where to from here? Federal policies New PM, the NEG is dead AEMO forecasts Electricity prices will fall over next years Increased ptake of battery storage and EVs State policies 50% RET, 1 million rooftops by 2020, Powering North Qld, spport of Solar Bons Scheme New coal fired Power station? VIC - big rooftop solar initiative 2,6GW at no pfront cost on 360,000 homes. data/assets/pdf_file/0004/497731/distribtion-annal-planning-report pdf

29 Terima Kasih! Gabriele Sartori WA