All Island Grid Study Riina Jokiranta, Alpi Rimppi

Transcription

1 All Island Grid Stdy 2008 Riina Jokiranta, Alpi Rimppi

2 Contents Overview of the stdy Introdction Preliminary modelling & portfolios Wind variability management Transmission network Impacts and benefits Evalation

3 Stdy: Five related workstreams

4 Focs areas

5 Introdction Island: Repblic of Ireland & Northern Ireland Stdy: First comprehensive assessment of ability of the grid to absorb large amonts of renewable energy. Objective: To assess the technical feasibility and the relative costs and benefits of varios scenarios of increased renewable energy

6 Crrent sitation (2008) vs 2020 Peak demand 7 GW Peak demand 10 GW Two system operators Two system operators 500 MW interconnection to Scotland 1000 MW connection to GB Wind prodction 700 MW Contracted: 800 MW Applicants: 3200 MW Almost 6 GW In planning: 1000 MW

7 Energy sorces taken into accont Comprehensive range of renewables Each resorce qantified, located and costed Wind Levelised cost tables for each Biomass Wave energy Tidal energy Wood co-combstion Small hyrdo and PV rejected

8 Assmptions Used estimations are accrate Used data is accrate 6100 MW of crrent prodction still operational Reslts are good withot market modelling No changes in land sage rights

9 Preliminary modelling To select portfolios for frther analysis Linear optimization model for year 2020 High level ideas, no complexity Single year of wind data Does not inclde new technologies Uncertainties varied in the model: Ftre fel price Ftre wind trbine cost WACC Appetite for old energy sorces Governmental gidance

10 Portfolios Six portfolios with different amont of installed wind: Grond for other models and investigations 2, 4, 6 & 8 GW Portfolio 5 MW Installed Coal 1 0 Coal 2 0 Lignite 0 Peat 0 CCCGT 0 OCGT 1598 ADGT 0 Base Load Renewables 520 Variable Renewables 1600 Wind 8000 Co-fired Capacity (peat) 104 Reslting energy mix % Coal/Lignite Peat 3.40 Gas Interconnection 0.00 Hydro 1.64 Base Load Renewables 7.16 Variable Renewables 8.04 Wind Energy Co-fired Capacity (of peat) 1.46 Total Renewables 54.30

11 Portfolios

12 Relation to other stdies

13 Wind variability management Renewable prodction affects: Inpts: Overall operation Wind data Costs WS2a portfolios Emissions Forecast scenarios Tools Otpts: Wilmar planning tool Fel consmption Scenario tree tool Volme of reserve provision Schedling model Import & export Horly time resoltion CO2 emissions

14 Wind variability management

15 Wind variability model conclsions Assmed renewables can be integrated Nearly whole demand for reserves provided by offline nits Yearly operation costs redced Yearly CO2 emissions redced Fel consmption redced Increased import to GB All portfolios rely on import and non-dispatchable generation to cover the load in peak load hors More variation needs flexible nits to accont for this Overall variation of prodction increases Amont of crtailed wind power prodction increases

16 Transmission network Three operational regimes Winter peak Smmer maximm Smmer night valley High and low wind generation Steady-state model Task 1: First-pass secrity assessment Task 2: Comprehensive secrity assessment Initially with DC, then converted into AC Main otpt: Reqired network reinforcements Costs Extent of network development for a range of renewable generation penetration levels Focs on reinforcements that might be reqired for Ireland 2020 in order to accommodate new renewable generation

17 Transmission network

18 Transmission network

19 Transmission network conclsions Overloads New lines Uprating the existing lines Additional reactive power spport Overloaded lines mainly where significant installed wind capacity Main challenge: voltage and reactive power control Cost increase de to increased renewables

20 Impacts and benefits

21 Impacts and benefits Total investment volmes in renewable energies

22 Impacts and benefits

23 Impacts and benefits

24 Evalation of the stdy Pros: Cons: Comprehensive Marginal PV One year of wind data Assmption: well-behaving world Great variability of portfolios Markets not taken into accont Models No dynamic stdies, only steady-state Good (bt rogh) initial modelling Horly distribtion Forecast errors taken into accont Congestion and N-1 secrity

25 Thank yo! Any qestions?