The Prognostic Assessment
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1 Center of Intercultural Competence The Prognostic Assessment How far the development of personality and cultural awareness can be predicted Thomas Baumer Presentation and Workshop SIETAR Congress, Tallinn, 20 September
2 Prognostic Assessment How is it possible, that 2
3 Prognostic Assessment in 1 day we attain 1. to catch the essential aspects of the personality (strenghts and weaknesses) of a human being, 2. to measure and anticipate social and cultural awareness, 3. to describe the existing as well as (if so) hidden abilities und addictions / interests, 4. to establish a quantifiable comparison with a job specification or requirement profile, 5. to outline requirements and basic conditions for the further development, 6. to define a time frame until the requirements will be achieved, 7. to ensure sustainability; 8. and this all can be monitored and verified? 3
4 Goals for today: Presentation what is a Prognostic Assessment and how is it performed? what is possible, what not? Workshop, discussion discuss about and exchange personal experiences. discuss about the values of objective (clearly measurable; e. g. psychometric tests) versus subjective (+/ measurable; e. g. projective tests, graphology) information. your topics; Q & A. 4
5 Center of Intercultural Competence Ltd. Team CICB Center of Intercultural Competence Ltd. CACB Center for Assessment and Coaching Assessment, Coaching, Outplacement CICB Center of Intercultural Competence Intercultural Competence (Trainings, Presentations, Research) 5
6 Thomas Baumer Eonomist (HWV/FH) : McDonald s Germany : Swissair (Store- und regional Manager) (lastly Division Manager / Deputy General Manager, Swissair Training Center) 2000: Foundation CICB Center of Intercultural Competence Assessments, Coaching, Outplacements 2010: Foundation CICB Center of Intercultural Competence Ltd. CICB Center of Intercultural Competence CACB Center for Assessment and Coaching Books (in German): - Handbook Intercultural Competence (2 volumes) (2002 / 2004) - Prognostic Assessment. Anticipate abilities and personal development (2013) Research, Analysis, Trainings, Presentations (e. g. Speakers Excellence ) over 500 Assessments, over 150 Coachings and Outplacements 6
7 Center for Assessment and Coaching
8 Prognostic Assessment Assessment Definition and Goals 1) entire and correct analysis of existing and hidden abilities and interests as well as the expected personality development 2) comparison with profile of requirements (if needed) 3) conditions and general framework for enhancements 4) time horizon of personal development until given requirement or generally (time frame max. 3 5 years) 5) constraints and limits 6) ensuring sustainability 8
9 Assessment relating to the personality: analysis of strenghts and weaknesses (Development Center; Coaching, Outplacement); SW (strenghts / weaknesses) relating to the personality and specific task / function: in addition: verification of abilities (chances / risks) (Assessment Center; Staffing, Coaching) SWOT (strenghts / weaknesses / opportunities / threats) 9
10 Prognostic Assessment Process Preparation (initial situation, information, preliminary talk) Performance structured biographical interview case studies, performance tests cognitive and personality tests psychometric and projektive methods (e. g. 16PF, N29, Wechsler, d2, Wartegg) behavior appraisal (continuous) interactive exercises (e. g. role plays, presentation, ambiguous situations) Analysis and Expertise / Report Feedback 10
11 Prognostic Assessment Steps in evaluation and analysis 1. group data set into superior and inferior predictors 2. allocate into confirming, completing or contradictory items 3. critical questioning of objective and subjective information (based on knowledge, experience, extrapolation and intuition); all steps have to be transparent 4. appraisal of results and behavior under unequal conditions 5. incorporating influence of motivation, interests and addictions 6. firming subjective impressions with quantifiable reasons and reference values 7. assembling consistent findings onto quantifiable reasons and comparable values at similar constellations 8. generating of currently usable abilities through test results and further information; individual factors are weighted according importance regarding requirements or other defined values 9. constantly reviewing consistence, clearness, traceability and comprehensibility of all aspects 11
12 Assessment Report Graphical Abstract 100 = requirement Personal development and goals: Reduce tensions and fear of loosing control, by confidence on multisided own abilities. Conscious balancing of energy-management and perception (rational, senses, emotional and intuitive); mental preparing of delicate situations and ensuring a calm, structured and methodic approach. Enhance consistence and tangibility in communication. Intentional steering of possibly polarizing situations. Suggested time frame: 1 2 years. Target agreements, professional coaching / supervision and feedback. 12
13 Cultural Awareness Cultural dimensions (Geert Hofstede): 1. Power Distance Index (PDI): behavior appraisal, personality tests 2. Individualism vs. Collectivism (IDV): behavior appraisal, role play 3. Masculinity vs. Femininity (MAS): written exercises, role play 4. Uncertainity Avolidance Index (UAI): personality tests, behavior appraisal 5. Long-Term-Orientation (LTO): behavior appraisal, role play Cultural Groups (Richard D. Lewis): 1. Linear active: behavior appraisal (especially stress resistance); self-perception 2. Multi-active: behavior appraisal (esp. within stress resistance); self-perception 3. Reactive: behavior appraisal (especially within stress resistance); self-perception 13
14 important Cultural Assessment Focal Points determined within test results, self-perception and behavior appraisal during exercises and role plays Cultural Awareness 1. Ambiguity Tolerance (ability to neutrally perceive ambiguities resp. equivocal or contradictory meanings) 2. Openness to Contacts (social orientation and competence) 3. Flexibility in Behavior (coping with unfamiliar situations) 4. Emotional Stability 5. Motivation to Perform (achievement oriented) 6. Empathy 7. Metacommunicative Competence (ability to steer by using different practical communication tools to solve problems in human interaction) 8. Polycentrism (in the meaning of Non-Ethnocentrism) 14
15 Prognostic Assessment Requiremens for a professional statement: 1. selection of tests and procedures 2. evaluation and examination of objective information 3. evidence to prognostic aspects 4. identification and reasons of contradictions 5. requirements concerning tests and procedures 6. evaluation and examination of subjective information 7. graphological analyses and projective tests 8. overall analysis, identification and quantification of potentials 15
16 Prognostic Assessment Constraints and limits: 1. Qualification (formation, giftedness and experience) of the participating assessors 2. Selection of the applied tests, methods and exercises 3. Process and sequences of the assessment 4. Complexity of candidate s personality 5. Honesty of the assessors concerning ambiguities and uncertainities 16
17 Critical questions / prejudices Answers a) Assessments have a bad reputation and are not often used. use appropriate tests, correct/flexible process, contradictions/unexpected explained b) They have just a sub-function within the selection process. first impression not sufficient; specific tasks; development, coaching, outplacement c) The term Prognostic Assessment is unknown, the procedure unclear. difficult predictions, context vs. individual info, high complexity simple statement d) Every assessment should be prognostic. not always necessary, requirements not always fullfilled e) Objectivity, Reliability and Validity (criterion validity)? sometimes not congruent with individual test validity; theory + intuition + experience f) How rises a good prediction? see Requirements for a professional statement g) Contribution of (individual) tests regarding a prediction? unequal; depending on requirement profile and complexity of candidates personality h) How are abilities and potentials differenciated and measured? abilities always usable; potentials conditionally usable, visible indirect or by exclusion 17
18 Potential Development Unleash potentials: Specific coaching (intensive workshop or individual coaching) Basis: Analysis of the Prognostic Assessment 1. Defining goals, intermediate steps and mesurement categories 2. Coordination of goals with ordering customer; confidence base 3. Meetings: a) actual questions or problems; b) discussion about objectives; c) tasks until next meeting 4. Supervising and ensuring progress and aims (tests, behavior appraisal and on the job ) 5. Ensuring sustainability after completion (contact with Coachee and ordering customer) 18
19 Resulting Parameters Prognostic Assessment and subsequent Coaching: 4 determining factors: 1. Potential of development (defined in Report of Prognostic Assessment) 2. Developed and usable abilities at time of Assessment 3. Requirements defined prior to Assessment, if applicable with adaptation as definition of aims prior to Coaching 4. Developed and usable abilities at completion of Coaching Visible and measurable results are: 1. Absolute (quantifiable) values in the respective criteria 2. Difference in usable abilities prior to and after Coaching 3. Difference in usable abilities compared with profile of requirements (each before and after Coaching) 4. Difference between usable abilities and development potential (each before and after Coaching) 5. Remaining, currently not yet usable development potential after Coaching, including statement and outlook 19
20 Attributes of a professional Assessment: 1. Verifiable; no empty promises 2. Transparent setting; if required anonymised Report 3. Consideration of special requirements and questions 4. Structure where necessary, Flexibility where possible 5. Feedback with candidate 6. Concrete base for decision and explicit statement in Report 7. Preliminary talk and feedback with ordering customer 8. Quality assurance and sustainability: long-term relationship with customer 20
21 Discussion, Workshops, Q & A: Discuss about and exchange personal experiences Discuss about the values of objective (measurable; e. g. psychometric tests) versus subjective (+/ measurable; e. g. projective tests, graphology) information Your topics, Q & A 21
22 Publication (in German language): Thomas Baumer Prognostic Assessment Anticipating abilities and personal development ISBN CICB Center of Intercultural Competence Ltd. CACB Center for Assessment and Coaching Fribourg and Zurich (Switzerland)
23 Center of Intercultural Competence Thank you! Thomas Baumer
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