Planning Manual Part II: Risk-Informed Planning. PCOP Rollout Webinar. Charles Yoe August 17, 2017

Transcription

1 Planning Manual Part II: Risk-Informed Planning PCOP Rollout Webinar Charles Yoe August 17, 2017

2 7 Risk-Informed Planning Take Aways 1. There is a new risk-informed planning process figure but the planning steps are unchanged 2. Risk-informed planners reduce uncertainty wisely and iteratively 3. Everyone is a planner 4. Everyone is a risk manager 5. There is no such thing as the number 6. Residual risk and assessing the risk of the TSP are focal points 7. Tell effective stories, don t just dump data

3 New Process Figure Why?

4 These steps. are handled in risk assessment with intentional attention to the uncertainty attending them. Consult, Communicate and Collaborate Establish Decision Context Identify Risks Analyze Risks Evaluate Risks Risk Mitigation Risk Assessment Monitor, Evaluate, Modify

5 Evidence Gathering Establish Decision Context Scoping + Consult, Communicate and Collaborate Identify Risks Analyze Risks Evaluate Risks Risk Mitigation Risk Assessment Monitor, Evaluate, Modify = Evidence Gathering Implementation Stakeholder Involvement Plan Formulation Evidence Gathering Screening Evidence Gathering Prior Planning Process + = New Risk Management Process Risk-Informed Planning Process

6 Evidence Gathering RIP begins the risk management life cycle for a project Scoping It considers risks comprehensively Evidence Gathering Implementation Stakeholder Involvement & Vertical Engagement Plan Formulation Evidence Gathering Final Disposition Planning Deciding OMRR&R PED Constructio n Evidence Gathering

7 Reducing Uncertainty

8 Iterations If study budgets of the planning are limited process we have provide Think of the numbered points as to It carefully the costs best money decide way to what reduce uncertainty. to iterations in the planning process. intentionally. reduce. 4 Cost of Evidence Uncertainty

9 1 st Iteration: Knowledge on the Team We ll Planning id our is biggest iterative. data We ll gaps, do plug the em, entire then do it process. all again. Within 30 days

10 What things do we most need to know more about? Uncertainty at start Uncertainty after 1 st iteration

11 2 nd Iteration: What Do Others Know Within 90 days

12 What are the biggest remaining holes in our understanding? Uncertainty after 1 st iteration Uncertainty after 2 nd iteration

13 3 rd Iteration: What Must We Learn? Within a year

14 What do we now need to know about the TSP? Uncertainty after 3 rd iteration Uncertainty after 2 nd iteration

15 Do I need a waiver? Follow this process to a TSP and you will be 3x3x3 compliant or you will have a strong case for why you cannot be.

16 What should we look out for during PED? Uncertainty after 3 rd iteration Uncertainty after TSP reasonably maximized

17 There will always be some uncertainty. At start After 1 st Iteration After 2 nd Iteration After 3 rd iteration After TSP optimization

18 You don t need all the evidence, just enough to make planning decisions. At start After 1 st Iteration After 2 nd Iteration After 3 rd iteration After TSP optimization

19 Everyone Is A Planner

20 Identify as a planner. Construction Project Management Contracting Operations Environmental Plan Formulator Core PDT members Real Estate Design Surveys If you identify only with your discipline and define yourself by that skillset, you become obsolete when challenges outside your discipline arise. Non-Federal Partner Engineering Economics Regulatory Engineering Expanded PDT Environmental Public Affairs

21 Everyone is a planner HQ MSC Teams consist of equals. Hierarchy must yield to common team objectives. District

22 Power Down Decision Making Evidence Gathering Scoping + Evidence Gathering Implementati on Stakeholder Involvement & Vertical Engagement Plan Formulation Evidence Gathering Deciding Vertical Alignment Evidence Gathering Iterative Planning

23 Power Down Decision Making = Planner Planner Planner More power for the PDT in making planning decisions

24 Risk Register is actively used as a management tool. Risks are monitored and management is modified as needed

25 Everyone Is A Risk Manager

26 Risk Register Risk management tool To be used by vertical team Someone must own each High and Medium risk Actively manage and monitor risks that result from conducting a study that is intentional about uncertainty

27 Risk Register Sample 4 High risk decisions 28 Medium risk decisions 19 Low risk decisions Ever risk has an owner High Risk 1 High Risk 2 High Risk 3 High Risk 4 Med. Risk 1-20 Med. Risk 21-28

28 Use Hope the risk not register a risk to management actively manage strategy. high Everyone and medium is a risk manager. actions.

29 There Is No Such Thing As The Number

30 Uncertainty means there are some things we are not going to know for sure.

31 Yes. We will improve that estimate once we refine the TSP. Min. 1 st Q Median 3 rd Q Max So costs will be between $25 and 42 million? The Answer % 90.0% 5.0% Project Cost Cumul(24.7,41.9,{},{}) Minimum Maximum Mean Std Dev

32 By reporting a single number, we hide our ignorance and keep our bosses ignorant of the limitations of our models and data. We need to be honest with them so they can openly account for uncertainty.

33 0 Net Benefits of Final Array Plan C Minimum Maximum Mean Std Dev Values Plan B Minimum 8.84 Maximum Mean Std Dev Values Plan A Minimum Maximum Mean Std Dev Values Decision making is different with uncertainty

34 Residual Risk and TSP Risk Assessment

35 Carefully assess and describe the risk that remains with the TSP in place. Without Condition Risk Residual Risk

36 TSP Risk Assessment Conduct at least a qualitative assessment of the TSP What can go wrong? How can it happen? What are the consequences? How likely is it? Carry risks forward to PED. Consult, Communicate and Collaborate Establish Decision Context Identify Risks Analyze Risks Evaluate Risks Risk Mitigation Risk Assessment Monitor, Evaluate, Modify

37 Tell Stories

38 Tell Stories Riskography with an engaging beginning, an interesting middle, and a satisfying ending More why less how and what No more six step structure, no data dumping Explain uncertainty Explore alternative media This is how we came up with the TSP In writing Vertical team Publics Milestone meetings

39 Be A Risk-Informed Planner Evidence Gathering Scoping Evidence Gathering Implementation Stakeholder Involvement Plan Formulation Evidence Gathering Screening Bloated budgets Prolonged schedules Unhappy stakeholders Evidence Gathering 3 x 3 x 3 Iterative Addresses uncertainty

40 Discussion