Growth Management Committee February 5, 2015

Transcription

1 5.1-1 Growth Management Committee February 5, 2015 Arvin Prasad, Director Integrated Planning Division Corporate Services 1

2 5.1-2 Agenda The Story of Growth in Peel Employment Trends/Forecasts and Impact on Land Requirements Challenges When Planning for Growth in Peel Potential Areas of Improvement to Address Growth Overview of Growth Management in Peel Growth Management Committee Growth Management Program Growth Management Workshops Next Steps March Growth Management Workshop on Employment Proposed Agenda Items for next GMC meeting 2

3 5.1-3 Where We ve Grown Policy Area Total Designated Lands ROP 1996 Hectares ROP 15 ROP 17 Present Total 55,689 2, ,479 Within Urban Boundary 53,231 2,336-55,568 Within Rural Service Centres 2, ,912 3

4 5.1-4 Population Distribution in Peel 4

5 5.1-5 Historical Population 1,600,000 Population ,400,000 1,200,000 1,000, , , , ,

6 5.1-6 Average Annual Population Growth, ,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5, ,145 Average Annual Growth ,480 23,746 23,006 28,601 24,071 30,635 35,345 28,

7 5.1-7 Forecasted vs. Actual Population ,400,000 1,200, Actual - 1,296,814 1,206,900 1,217,000 1,261,000 1,000, ,000 ROP (1996) ROPA 8 (2003) ROPA 15 (2005) Forecasted 2011 Actual 2011

8 5.1-8 Historical Employment 700,000 Employment , , , , , ,

9 5.1-9 Average Annual Employment Growth, ,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 13,475 ( ) 13,290 ( ) 11,000 ( ) 5, ,400 12,580 14,820 14,840 8,560 22,600 14,800 7,

10 Forecasted vs. Actual Employment , , , , , , , Actual 644, , ,000 ROP (1996) ROPA 8 (2003) ROPA 15 (2005) P2G Forecasted 2011 Actual

11 Jobs to Population Ratio in Peel Employment Growth by Period Population Growth by Period 11

12 Impacts of Not Achieving Employment Forecasts Unemployment rate on the rise in Peel Increased demand for regional services, including the following categories: Ontario Works Affordable housing Public Health Police Current Regional initiatives to support Peel s economy Infrastructure investment Employment Program and Service Business Review Youth Employment programs (Youth Employment Logistic Program) Employment working group Peel Poverty Reduction Strategy 12

13 Decline in Manufacturing 13

14 Industrial Floor Space per Worker Assumptions for DC By-laws 14

15 Peel and GTA New Supply Industrial Market 14,000,000 12,000,000 10,000,000 New Supply (million sf) 8,000,000 6,000,000 Peel Total GTA Total 4,000,000 Recession 2,000, Year 15

16 Peel and GTA Absorption Industrial Market 12,000,000 10,000,000 8,000,000 Absorption (million sf) 6,000,000 4,000,000 2,000,000 Peel Total GTA Total Recession ,000,000-4,000,000 Year 16

17 Office FSW Unchanged Mississauga office data revealed FSW of 21 m 2 per worker Assume some office vacancies would increase the FSW Office FSW assumption of 27 m 2 per worker from 2012 DC By-law validated 17

18 Summary of Key Employment Trends 1. 16% of all jobs in Peel were people with no fixed place of work (11% ) and people who worked at home (6%). 2. Though manufacturing jobs were lost recently, they were replaced by other sectors. However, this still did not help achieve the employment forecasts from Places to Grow or Amendment 2 background estimates. 3. Industrial supply/absorption has not recovered to pre-recession levels. 4. There are more businesses in Peel between 2001 and 2011, but employees per business is declining from 8.3 employees per business to 6.6 employees per business.

19 Impact of Employment Trends on Land Requirements Industrial FSW is increasing as a result of decline in manufacturing jobs and increase in land transportation/warehousing uses which requires lots of space. Those that do not have a fixed place of work and those that work from home (16%) reduces the need for land required to accommodate employment. 19

20 How to Grow Conformity to 2041 (Amendment 2: Places to Grow Plan) 20

21 How to Grow - Places to Grow Conformity to 2031

22 Growth Management Challenges 1. Population growth rate outpace forecasts; but employment growth rate lags behind forecasts 2. Changing employment landscape and land requirements 3. Difficulty prioritizing and planning for provision of infrastructure and services for new development 22

23 Servicing Implications of Growth 23

24 Potential Areas of Improvement 1. Focus future growth in intensification areas e.g. Hurontario LRT Project 2. Staging of investments with approvals 3. Support area municipalities in economic development 4. Align internal policies, procedures, assumptions regarding growth 24

25 Growth Management Committee (GMC) Mandate The Committee shall review and provide input on the Regional Official Plan and growth management issues and specifically on the development of sustainable financing options. The Committee shall review and make recommendations on growth management issues, planning and servicing policies and consider population and employment distribution in the Region. 25

26 Roles and Responsibilities of GMC Members 1.Review and make recommendations on growth forecasts and on Regional Official Plan Amendments related to growth including opportunities for intensification; 2.Review and provide comment on the studies related to and options for sustainable financing of growth in Peel; 3.Make recommendations respecting Regional Official Plan reviews. 26

27 Growth Management Program Overview

28 Growth Management Program: Desired Outcome A robust Regional Official Plan that is supported by a sustainable financial plan and servicing plan that takes into consideration the risks, costs and benefits of managing growth. 28

29 Growth Management Workshops #1: May 30, 2013 Understanding the Issues #2: March 24, 2014 Growth Management #3: September 5, 2014 Sustainable Financing #4: March 5, 2015 Employment intensification, growth implementation compact dev t financing options, infrastructure employment trends Growth Management Workshop #4 (March 5, 2015): Consult on trends in employment and non-residential building space in Peel Complete analysis of competitive advantages and employment sector opportunities Industrial and Office Market Trends Analysis Study 10:00AM on March 5, 2015, at Brampton Courtyard Marriott (50 Biscayne Crescent) 29

30 Proposed Agenda Items for Future GMC Meetings 1. Overview of Transportation Planning in Peel 2. Water Resources in Peel 3. Regional Cost/Benefits of Growth to Proposed 2015 DC Policy Changes 5. Impact of changing growth forecast 6. Preliminary results of financing/servicing /allocation program 30