Stimulating Businesses and Jobs in Urbanizing Communities

Transcription

1 Stimulating Businesses and Jobs in Urbanizing Communities Town of Innisfil Market Saturation Analysis Presented by: Jamie Cook, Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. November 2, 2017

2 Study Purpose To assess forecast market demand for the Innisfil Heights Employment Area within the context of employment land needs for the broader market area Assess the relative competitive position of the Innisfil Heights Employment Area in terms of the overall cost of development 1

3 Population / Employment Greater Golden Horseshoe (GGH) Growth Outlook, ,000,000 Population Employment 14,000, M 12,000, M 10,000, M 8,000,000 6,000,000 4,000, M 5.7 M 6.3 M 2,000, Source: Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe 2

4 The Share of Population Growth in the GGH is Changing GTHA Core Municipalities % 52% 49% Countryside/905 Fringe 14% 21% 23% 19% GGH Outer Ring 26% 28% 3

5 Annual Average Growth Rate ( ) Simcoe Area Growth Forecast Relative population growth Population Growth Rates 2.00% 1.80% 1.8% 1.7% 1.60% 1.5% 1.4% 1.40% 1.20% 1.2% 1.2% 1.1% 1.1% 1.0% 1.3% 1.4% 1.3% 1.00% 0.80% 0.9% 0.60% 0.40% 0.20% 0.00% Municipality/ region 4 Source: Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe

6 Annual Average Growth Rate ( ) Simcoe Area Growth Forecast (Cont d) Relative employment growth Employment Growth Rates 2.00% 1.9% 1.80% 1.60% 1.40% 1.20% 1.5% 1.4% 1.2% 1.1% 1.1% 1.3% 1.1% 1.00% 1.0% 0.9% 0.9% 0.80% 0.7% 0.7% 0.60% 0.40% 0.20% 0.00% Municipality/region 5 Source: Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe

7 How is Recent Employment Growth Tracking to Growth Plan Forecast? Estimated Employment Growth, Recent Trends Growth Plan 400, , , ,000 Total Employment Growth 300, , , , ,000 76, ,000 77, ,000 50, ,000 57,000 Watson & Associates 2016 Employment Growth (1) Technical Report to the Growth Plan, 2013 (2) City of Toronto GTHA (less Toronto) GGH Outer Ring 1. Derived from Economic Modeling Specialists Intl. employment data, 2011 & Technical Report Addendum to the Growth Plan, June 2013 Ontario Ministry of Infrastructure 6

8 Planning for the New Economy Being competitive in today s new economy requires a different look at how we plan and develop our Employment Areas The evolving economy is also impacting the factors that make Employment Areas successful (i.e. access to labour, transit, amenities, post-secondary institutions) 7

9 Light Industrial Areas and. Business Parks 8

10 Freight Villages/Enterprise Zones Increasing trend towards greater integration of intermodal terminals and logistics hubs Lands surrounding the intermodal facility often accommodate a range of transportation/logistics, warehousing, distribution centers, manufacturing, office and ancillary uses 9

11 Research Parks and Innovation Districts Concept fosters entrepreneurialism, innovation, research/ training, and investment through connectivity and social interaction through the design of buildings, public spaces and supporting amenities Innovation districts are often comprised of a mix of land uses, including institutional (i.e. universities and hospitals), residential, retail, office and R&D facilities connected with start-ups, business incubators and accelerators 10

12 Employment Land Needs, 2031 Broader Regional Market Area Summary of Forecast Employment Lands Absorption, 2016 to 2031 Annual Land Absorption (ha) Historical, Peel Region Highway 400 Corridor North/Central Highway 404 Corridor South/Central Simcoe Area 11

13 Employment Land Needs, 2031 (Cont d) Broader Regional Market Area (Excluding Town of Innisfil) Summary of Forecast Employment Land Needs, 2016 to 2031 Employment Land Needs "Shovel-ready" Broader Regional Market Area (Excluding Town of Innisfil) 2016 "Shovel-ready" Vacant Employment Land Supply Forecast Employment Land Absorption 2021 Employment Land Surplus/(Shortfall) Net ha 1,933 1, Designated (Serviceable) 2016 Designated Vacant Employment Land Supply Forecast Employment Land Absorption 2031 Employment Land Surplus/(Shortfall) 5,108 5,042 H:\Innisfil\Market Saturation Study\Growth Forecasts\[Growth Forecast Notes- Revised September xlsx]EMp Land total 65 12

14 Employment Lands A Case for Municipal Servicing in Innisfil The majority of the Employment Areas surveyed in the broader regional market area offer full municipal servicing Employment Areas with no or partial servicing within the broader market area have experienced relatively low absorption due to the limited ability to attract a wide range of users, including prestige tenants. In addition, they typically have very low employment densities 13

15 Measuring Competitiveness National/Provincial Level Regulatory environment Dollar exchange rate Corporate taxation Political stability Geographic Attributes Labour costs (wage rates, benefits) Regional Level Local industry clusters Access to markets Access to Regional labour force pool Quality of infrastructure and distribution networks Utility costs (electricity, heating, water) Community Level Locational attributes Major infrastructure access (major highways, intermodal facilities, airports) Local labour force Development opportunities Development costs (land prices, off-site levies) Property taxes Market rents and availability of building space Quality of life Local business environment Competitiveness Factors Site Level Availability of developable industrial and commercial lands Investment readiness of Employment Areas Quality and suitability of building space Access/circulation Development standard 14

16 Innisfil s Competitive Advantage Employment Lands Central location within the Simcoe Area Direct access to Highway 400 Sufficient available land supply for large-scale industrial development Proximity to recreational amenities/quality of life Proposed GO train station Competitive development costs 15

17 Location Quotient to Greater Golden Horseshoe Area What Types of Jobs are Anticipated in Innisfil Heights? Industrial Cluster Size and Growth Matrix Town of Innisfil Relative to GGH Agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting Arts, entertainment and recreation Admin. and support, waste mgt and remediation services Accommodation and food services Real estate and rental and leasing Educational services Information and cultural industries Manufacturing Construction Retail trade Wholesale trade Finance and insurance Public administration Health care and social assistance Other services (except public administration) Professional, scientific and technical services % -4.0% -2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% Average Annual Employment Growth ( ) Note: Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction, Management of Companies and Utilities are not displayed as they each have an employment base less than 60 in the Town of Innisfil. Source: Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. Data source: Location quotients based on comparison to Greater Golden Horeshoe Area derived from EMSI OMARFA Analyst,

18 Town of Innisfil Employment Growth The Town of Innisfil is forecast to experience relatively balanced employment growth by major sector Town of Innisfil Employment Growth Increment by Major Sector, 2016 to 2031 Institutional 13% Commercial/ Population Related 36% No Fixed Place of Work 14% Work at Home 14% Industrial 23% 17 Source: Watson & Associates Economists Ltd.

19 Hectares Absorbed Employment Growth and Employment Land Absorption The Town s current employment estimate of 2,700 jobs for Innisfil Heights remains appropriate in accordance with the Town s approved Official Plan Town of Innisfil Employment Land Absorption, 2016 to ha ha Source: Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. Land Area Absorbed Forecast 10 Year Average ( ) Forecast Average, H:\Innisfil\Market Saturation Study\Growth Forecasts\[Innisfil Employment September xlsm]Employment Land Absorp- intensi

20 Share of Land Absorbed in the Broader Regional Market Area Regional Market Capture Share of Innisfil and South/Central Employment Absorption, 2010 to % 20% 18% 1.4% 16% 16% 14% 15% 14% 0.8% 1.7% 12% 10% 18.5% 8% 6% 6% 13.3% 13.3% 15.0% 4% 0.5% 2% 5.5% 0% Historical, South Central Simcoe/Barrie/Bradford West Gwillimbury, excluding Innisfil Town of Innisfil Source: Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. 1.2% 19

21 Conclusions A key driver of Innisfil s future economic potential is its geographic location within the GGH Our analysis suggests there is an opportunity for the Town of Innisfil to capture a small but growing share of forecast regional market demand across a broad range of employment sectors 20

22 Conclusions (Cont d) The Innisfil Heights Employment Area is an important area to the Town, representing almost all of Innisfil s Employment Area land base This area is forecast to accommodate approximately 40% of the Town s employment growth over the 2016 to 2031 planning period assuming the extension of full municipal services to the Innisfil Heights Employment Area 21

23 Conclusions (Cont d) The macro-economic analysis, prepared as part of our market saturation analysis study, supports a prestige business park development which is envisioned in the Town s Official Plan for the Innisfil Heights Employment Area 22