Coping with Complexity in Command and Control. Rudolph Oosthuizen Dr Jan Roodt

Transcription

1 Coping with Complexity in Command and Control Rudolph Oosthuizen Dr Jan Roodt

2 Introduction Effective Command and Control (C2) is key to operations C2 has to operate in a increasingly complex environment: - War amongst the people. - Fog of war. - Communication technology. C2 system support human to solve Wicked and Messy problems: - Improve sense-making through effective HMI. - HMI need to support cognitive and social capabilities of humans. Cognitive System Engineering address cognitive and social aspects: - Cognitive Work Analysis. - Cynefin Framework.

3 SCOPE Command and Control Defined Complexity Defined Command and Control as a Complex System Cognitive system Engineering Coping with Complexity in Command and Control Conclusion

4 War CSIR

5 Modern War CSIR

6 Command and Control Definition: - Problem solving within a military context to provide focus and convergence of effort. - Assess environment and decide on course of action. Purpose - Bring all available information and all available assets to bear on an objective Requirements - Vision of outcome - Understand high level intent and priorities - Assessment of environment - (Re-) Evaluation of situation

7 Command and Control Model Behaviour Command Control Sense-Making Execution Effects Situation and Information Collection and Processing (Alberts 2006)

8 Socio-technical System Environment Process People Hardware Software System Tools, Equipment and Facilities

9 C2 System Complex Environment Sensor Comms System Situation Assessment Sense- Making System Effector Comms System Cognitive Support System Issue Orders Decision Support System HMI Operator Delay

10 The Famous OODA Loop Observe Orient Act Decide (Boyd, 1987)

11 The Famous OODA Loop Sense & Process Common Situation Picture Derive Knowledge Observe Orient Battlespace Actions Situation Awareness Act Decide Execute Commander s Intent Make Decisions

12 Dynamic OODA Loop Mission Mission Complete Sense- Making Planning Decision/ Order Information Collection Command Concept Military Activity (Brehmer, 2005) Effect

13 Dynamic OODA Loop Mission Mission Complete Orient Sense- Making Planning Decide Decision/ Order Act Information Collection Command Concept Military Activity Observe (Brehmer, 2005) Effect

14 Situation Awareness Perception of elements in the environment within a volume of time and space, comprehension of their meaning and projection of their status into the near future Endsley. Situation Awareness exist in the mind of the operator. HMI is the interface between the operator and C2 system. Prerequisite for Decision Making. Require a careful analysis on what is required for Decision Making.

15 Situation Awareness System Capability Interface Design Stress and Workload Complexity Automation Situation Awareness Perception of Elements in Current Situation Level 1 Comprehension of Current Situation Level 2 Projection of Future Status Level 3 Decision Performance of Actions Goals & Objectives Preconditions Expectations Information Processing Mechanisms Long Term Memory Stores Automaticity (Endsley, 2001) CSIR Abilities Experience Training

16 Situation Awareness System Capability Interface Design Stress and Workload Complexity Automation Situation Awareness Perception of Elements in Current Situation Level 1 Comprehension of Current Situation Level 2 Projection of Future Status Level 3 Decision Performance of Actions Goals & Objectives Preconditions Expectations Information Processing Mechanisms Long Term Memory Stores Automaticity (Endsley, 2001) Abilities Experience Training

17 Sense Making & Decision Making C2 require decisions on adapting to changing environment. Complexity requires intuition and judgement from cognitive abilities and past experience. Align presentation of information with operator mental models. HMI of C2 system support sense-making. Identify when decisions are required.

18 Complexity Definition: - a whole made up of complicated or interrelated parts - braided or entwined together Complex System consist of many interconnected nonlinear elements that cause unpredictable behaviour. Behaviour is nondeterministic, despite apparent order. Display emergent behaviour Modelling help to understand.

19 Complexity Systems where people play a major part tends to be complex. Cognitive work is dynamic and context dependant in sociotechnical system. Systems need to support assimilation of information in uncertainty. Complexity science provide tools and concepts. The Cynefin Framework (Snowden) assist in making sense of complex situations.

20 Cynefin Framework Complex Knowable Disorder (Snowden) Chaos Known

21 Cynefin Framework Complex Knowable Pattern Management Perspective Filters Complex Adaptive Systems Analytical / Reductionist Scenario Planning Systems Thinking Disorder Stability Focussed Intervention Enactment Tools Crises Management Legitimate Best Practice Standard Operating Procedures Process Re-Engineering (Snowden) Chaos Known

22 Cynefin Framework Complex Knowable Pattern Management Perspective Filters Complex Adaptive Systems Analytical / Reductionist Scenario Planning Systems Thinking Probe - Sense - Respond Sense - Analyse - Respond Disorder Act - Sense - Respond Sense - Categorise - Respond Stability Focussed Intervention Enactment Tools Crises Management Legitimate Best Practice Standard Operating Procedures Process Re-Engineering (Snowden) Chaos Known

23 C2 as a Complex System Combat is complex (Sun Tzu & Clausewitz). C2 is a complex system: - Large problem space. - Social interaction with heterogeneous perspectives. - Distributed cognition and decision making. - Mediated interaction and dynamic decision-making. - Hazards and disturbances. C2 have to make sense of complex situations and manage risks. C2 is a sociotechnical system.

24 C2 as a Complex System Complex Knowable Probe - Sense - Respond Sense - Analyse - Respond Orient Decide Disorder Observe Act Act - Sense - Respond Sense - Categorise - Respond Chaos Known

25 C2 as a Complex System Complex Probe - Sense - Respond Knowable Sense - Analyse - Respond Disorder Up to WW I Start Execute Act - Sense - Respond Chaos Sense - Categorise - Respond Known

26 C2 as a Complex System Complex Probe - Sense - Respond Knowable Sense - Analyse - Respond Start Disorder Plan WW II Execute Act - Sense - Respond Chaos Sense - Categorise - Respond Known

27 C2 as a Complex System Complex Probe - Sense - Respond Knowable Sense - Analyse - Respond Analyse Start Disorder Plan Modern War Execute Act - Sense - Respond Chaos Sense - Categorise - Respond Known

28 C2 as a Complex System Complex Probe - Sense - Respond Knowable Sense - Analyse - Respond Analyse Monitor Disorder Plan Modern War Start Execute Act - Sense - Respond Chaos Sense - Categorise - Respond Known

29 Cognitive System Engineering Classic System Engineering: - Focus more on technical aspect. - Automate to reduce human error. - Lead to failures in complex and unforeseen situations. Humans are central to complex systems. C2 requires Decision Support Systems to assist sense-making and problem solving: - Display information, not raw data. - Provide ease of control. - Complement cognitive capability. - Support operators to cope with and adapt to unfamiliar situations. - Indicate when decisions need to be taken.

30 Cognitive System Engineering Apply Cognitive Work Analysis (CWA) to develop cognitive affordances to support sense-making and decision-making. - Support analysis, design and evaluation of complex sociotechnical systems. - Define required information and application context. - Define ecological HMI for effective man - machine operation. Support direct perception and manipulation. Support creativity and innovation in unanticipated events. Capture the knowledge and processes of experts to support novices though the system and HMI.

31 Cognitive System Engineering Work Domain Analysis Purpose, Values, Functions & Resources Applied Cognitive Task Analysis Task Diagrams Processes Work Organisation Analysis Critical Decisions, Decision Requirements Work Situations Work Tasks Knowledge Audits Expertise Difficulties Cognitive Transformations Strategies & Competencies Cognitive HMI Requirements CSIR Work Strategies Cognitive Processes Cognitive States Cognitive Competencies Social Transactions Collaboration Coordination Transactions

32 Cognitive System Engineering Complex - Orient Knowable - Decide Probe - Sense - Respond Sense - Analyse - Respond Skill Based Detect Patterns Complex Adaptive systems Making Sense Knowledge Based Perform Analysis Systems Thinking Planning Disorder Experience Take action to trigger pattern Crises Management Rule Based Follow SOPs Execute plan and Orders Act - Sense - Respond Chaos - Observe Sense - Categorise - Respond Known - Act

33 Cognitive System Engineering Work Domain Analysis Purpose, Values, Functions & Resources Applied Cognitive Task Analysis Task Diagrams Processes Work Organisation Analysis Critical Decisions, Decision Requirements Work Situations Work Tasks Cynefin Framework Knowledge Audits Expertise Difficulties Cognitive Transformations Strategies & Competencies Cognitive HMI Requirements CSIR Work Strategies Cognitive Processes Cognitive States Cognitive Competencies Social Transactions Collaboration Coordination Transactions

34 Conclusion Conducting military operations in modern and complex environment is difficult. C2 systems need to support commanders solve increasingly complex and dynamic problems. Be flexible to adapt to changes in environment and context. Focus on Situation Awareness, Sense-making and Decisionmaking. Support human cognitive and social abilities in C2 system design (HMI). Apply CWA enhanced with Cynefin diagram to design, develop and evaluate C2 systems.

35 CSIR