Predictive Analytics in Action
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1 Predictive Analytics in Action Dennis Putze Division of Performance and Statistical Analysis, Office of Child Support Enforcement
2 What is Predictive Analysis? Predictive Analytics is All around Us The analysis of data affects: What we buy What we read What we watch How we network How we socialize The opinions we form Whom we date and marry!
3 Predictive Analytics for Child Support Making Better Decisions with Analysis Improve Efficiency Predict Future Changes Allocate Resources Identify Opportunities Unique Insight Make Strategic Decisions
4 Analytics Effort at OCSE Overall: The Division of Performance and Statistical Analysis (DPSA) provides direction, guidance, and oversight to State/Tribal child support program offices: Performance measurement Statistical, policy and program analysis Synthesis and application of emerging technologies such as business intelligence and data analytics Goal: Improve and enhance the effectiveness of programs and service delivery Vision: Achieve these goals through: Innovative analytic tools Identification of key performance measures and case circumstance trends to predict future behavior Development of strategies that address the variety of child support program and case circumstances Project: DPRE conducted a data analytics project with the following outcomes: Data Analysis and Assessment Report Conceptual Designs for Internal Dashboards Annual, Monthly and Quarterly Reports Prototype
5 Data Analytics and Technical Support Project Exploratory Data Analysis and Assessment Report Assessed data received, processed and stored by OCSE from various key data sources Identified 200+ Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) for potential use in dashboards and advanced analytics Conceptual Designs for Internal Dashboards Selected 12 KPIs that allow OCSE to more effectively view and analyze data to identify trends Dashboard mock-ups to show potential interactive views of the data available to OCSE Prototype for the Annual, Monthly and Quarterly Reports Fully functioning templates for the Monthly / Quarterly reports that allow for drill down capabilities Prototype that enhances the look and feel of the Annual Report and can generate defined charts and tables for the 2012 Annual Report
6 Conceptual Dashboard
7 Conceptual Dashboard Leads to intuitive and effective decision making and analysis since all data is available in one place in easy to view, customizable formats
8 Analytics in Child Support Programs Understand the story behind your numbers: Shift from reactive reporting to proactive analysis Discover patterns though interactive analysis Trending and forecasting anticipates the future Uncover the rest of the story : External data (population shift, education, poverty rates) to better see patterns and predict outcomes Use of advanced analytics (cluster analysis, correlation) to better visualize impacts and opportunities Monitor Progress: Visualize progress against set goals (month, period, year) Identify bottlenecks quickly and make adjustments
9 Benefits for Child Support Agencies Accomplish more with limited resources: Focus worker on productive cases and activities Decrease time spent analyzing or reacting to canned reports Aid in analyzing the impact of a policy or predicted impact of a new policy It can play a key role in helping child support agencies to: Improve program performance on incentive measures Improve reliability of child support payments Proactively identify case that could be non-paying based on known reasons Develop more targeted outreach efforts to NCPs.
10 Next Steps for OCSE Convene workgroup to discuss how data analysis could be used at national level Effect of policies on performance metrics Geographical outcomes Additional data Explore getting data from other sources: Census Bureau Department of Labor Veteran s Affairs Department of Justice
11 Thank You Dennis Putze
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