Evidence on Youth Active Labour Market Programmes

Transcription

1 Evidence on Youth Active Labour Market Programmes Susana Puerto International Labour Organization Geneva, 26 September 2014

2 Overview I. The ILO and the What Works II. The Evidence III. Takeaways 2

3 I. The ILO and the What Works 3

4 Motivation 1. Severe knowledge gaps 2. Evaluation matters Evaluation evidence by type of intervention Total Comprehensive, training Job assis., wage subsidies, public works - 35 Skills training Entrepreneurship schemes - 33 Other % 0% and by region 3 % 6% 9% 9 % 13 % 14 % 21% 25% 31 % 34% Successes 44% Failures 56% Without a proper counterfactual Total % OECD % ECA - 41 LAC % 7 % SSA % SA/EAP % MENA - 8 Impact evaluations 20 % 25% 25% 29 % 33% Successes 33% Impact evaluations with cost-benefit analysis Failures 67% Youth Employment With a counterfactual Programme 4

5 Our response Impact Research Good Theory Good Evidence Capacity development Policy influence Area of Critical importance Fund for Evaluation in Youth Employment 5

6 Impact Research Morocco Egypt Edutaiment Entrepreneursh ip + training Malawi Apprenticeship for vulnerable youth Pipeline: Zimbabw e Zambia Rwanda Kenya Tanzania Women s entrepreneurship development Micro franchises for young women Uganda Empowering adolescent girls Entrepreneurship mentoring in schools Soft vs. Hard Skills in Entrepreneurship Training Stimulating Microenterprise Growth Empowering adolescent girls 6

7 II. The Evidence 7

8 The Youth Employment Inventory 8

9 Sources of information Impact evaluation 13% Basic descriptive information 48% Impact evaluation plus cost-benefit analysis 3% Process evaluation 36% 9

10 29 T: ENT: ES: SE: 18 Interventions Training Entrepreneurship Employment Services Subsidized Employment T + ENT + SE 6 T T + ENT T + ES T + ENT + ES ENT ES T + SE T + ES + SE SE ENT + ES T + ENT + ES + SE

11 Lessons I. Employment Services Evidence is extremely limited to developed countries When evidence is available, ES are combined with other services and it is difficult to isolate their impact Targeting is key to programme success youth and long-term unemployed Packages work better: job placement assistance and rules for compliance (unemployment benefits) 11

12 FRANCE UK Weekly personal counselling and monitoring for max. 6 months Counselling and encouragement, access to other programmes Impacts: employment (sustained rates over time) Public provision had higher employment impacts than private provision. o Those who didn't find a job tended to remain longer on unemployment registers when counselled by private companies. Impacts: unemployment probability of full time work after interview Inactivity Results modest among women Short term effects where associated with sanction schemes and long term effects with counselling Youth Employment 12 Programme

13 Lessons II. Skills training for youth 1. Demand-driven in design and implementation 2. Comprehensive, multi-pronged training measures Labour market outcomes + 3. Labor markets need to be youth friendly -> restrictive institutions hamper training effectiveness 4. To secure long term impacts in human capital: Education policies earlier in the lifecycle

14 COLOMBIA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC UGANDA MALAWI Classroom + onthe-job training + support services to unemployed, urban youth Impacts: Earnings and formalization (women ***) Positive IRR (women) Life + vocational skills / Classroom + on-the-job to youth NEET Impacts: Earnings and formalization Channels: o Behaviors *** o o Expectations Non-cognitive skills Life + vocational skills to adolescent girls Impacts: Prob. of employment and starting a business. Financial and analytical skills. Risky behaviors *** Vocational training + pep talks to vulnerable youth Impacts: Skills and knowledge Risky sexual behaviors 14

15 Lessons III. Youth entrepreneurship (skills and capital) Programs for youth & start-ups are more likely to have positive results skills gap; marginal investment, larger impact Packages work better than stand-alone interventions value of partnerships Programs delivered by non-state intermediaries tend to perform better Other findings Programs targeting women appear to be less successful rethink current approaches. Impact varies over time need for more evaluation 15

16 Lessons Youth entrepreneurship (skills and capital) Main knowledge gaps Easier to change skills, behaviours and attitudes (practices, income stabilization). There is less evidence on sales and profits, and too little evidence on labour market impacts. Effectiveness or duration? Most studies evaluate interventions on the very poor. Little impact evidence on the gazelles. Relative effectiveness Quality and delivery of the training as well as the quality of the jobs created has not been systematically assessed. More experimentation. 16

17 TUNISIA BOSNIA & HERZEGOVINA UGANDA Entrepreneurship track in final year of university provides business training and personalized coaching Impacts: Increases selfemployment rates one year later (6% for males and 3% for females). Channel: o Fostered business skills, expanded networks, and shaped behavioral skills. Financial training for business loan clients of MFI Impacts: Financial training increases knowledge for those with low financial literacy Improves business performance and sales for those with high initial financial literacy. Some improvements in business practices, but no increases in business profits or in business survival rates. Experiment to test constraints for young entrepreneurs Business training Loans Grants Impacts: T+L: Profits (54%) male-owned biz (Sustained; Prior) L: Profits (men) but 0 in longer term G: No impact Women: No impact Channel: o Men: K and family employment. o Women: Family pressure and? 17

18 III. Takeaways

19 1. Evaluation: Key Takeaways The How is as important as the What (Channels) Systematic data collection and evaluation efforts are key to move towards evidence-based policy making. 2. Program design: Demand-driven designs, comprehensive approaches Early human capital interventions 3. Work on your organizations learning agenda 19

20 Thank you 20

21 For more information EMPLOYMENT POLICY DEPARTMENT 4, route des Morillons CH 1211 Geneva 22 Tel. : Fax: youth@ilo.org Web: Follow us on