Kaizen as an Industrial Policy: Towards Economic Transformation of Africa
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1 Kaizen as an Industrial Policy: Towards Economic Transformation of Africa 23 March, 2016 Go Shimada, PhD Associate Professor, University of Shizuoka Visiting Scholar, Columbia University 1 Photos: Courtesy of Kenshiro Imamura/ JICA
2 n Current Positions Associate Professor of Economics, School of International Relations, the University of Shizuoka, Japan. (April 2015 Present). Visiting Scholar, Columbia University. (March 2013 Present) Visiting Scholar, Research Institute of JICA (April 2015 Present). Adjunct Researcher, Waseda University. (October 2014 Present). Member of the Editorial Board, Journal of International Development (The Japan Association for International Development). (2013 Present). n Academic Qualification Ph.D., 2014, Waseda University, Tokyo, Japan. M.A. Economics with Distinction, 1999, School of Economic Studies, the University of Manchester, UK n Professional Experience Senior Research Fellow, JICA Research Institute, Tokyo Director, Research Program Division, JICA Research Institute, Tokyo Director, Private Sector Development Division, Department of Industrial Development and Public Policy, JICA, Tokyo Special Assistant to the President, Office of President, JICA, Tokyo First Secretary, Permanent Mission of Japan to the United Nations, New York
3 Major Publications in 2015 and 2016 (2016) (Forthcoming) Inside the Black Box of Japan s Institution for Industrial Policy An Institutional Analysis of Development Bank, Private Sector and Labour. In Akbar Noman and Joseph Stiglitz, eds. Efficiency, Finance and Varieties of Industrial Policy. New York: Columbia University Press. (2015) The Role of Social Capital after Disasters: An Empirical Study of Japan based on Time- Series-Cross-Section (TSCS) Data from 1981 to International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction. 14(2015) doi: /j.ijdrr "Towards community resilience - the role of social capital after disasters." In Laurence Chandy, Hiroshi Kato, Homi Kharas, eds. The last mile in ending extreme poverty, Washington D.C.: Brookings Institutions. "The Economic Implications of Comprehensive Approach to Learning on Industrial Development (Policy and Managerial Capability Learning): A Case of Ethiopia." In Akbar Noman and Joseph Stiglitz, eds. Industrial Policy and Economic Transformation in Africa. New York: Columbia University Press. "What are the Macroeconomic Impacts of Natural Disasters? - The Impacts of Natural Disasters on the Growth Rate of Gross Prefectural Domestic Product in Japan." In Haddad, Lawrence. Hiroshi Kato. Nicolas Meisel. eds. Growth is Dead, Long Live Growth The Quality of Economic Growth and Why it Matters. Tokyo: JICA Research Institute Twenty years after the Great Hanshin-Awaji Earthquake and the Great East Japan Earthquake: From the Perspective of Resilience and Social Capital. In Waseda University After 3.11 disaster editorial committee. After 3.11: Waseda s 92 Analysis and Suggestions (In Japanese). Tokyo: Waseda University Press. 3
4 RECENT PUBLICATIONS 4
5 AGENDA 1. Why Economic Transformation? 2. How does Kaizen contribute to the transformation? - Kaizen as a part of Industrial Policy 3. What is the role of the government? - Preliminary findings from a Kaizen project in Latin America
6 WHY ECONOMIC TRANSFORMATION? 1. JOB CREATION FOR YOUTH IS THE KEY 6
7 A DECLINING TREND OF MANUFACTURING SECTOR Manufacturing as a percentage of GDP in Sub-Saharan Africa % of GDP A premature shift to service industries (retail trade and distribution) (Modified by author based on John Page (2013)) 7
8 GHANA: VALUE ADDED SHARE (current price) 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Agriculture Mining Manufacturing Utilities Construction Trade services Transport services Business services Dwellings Government services Personal services (Shimada 2016, based on Gronnengen Africa Sector database as reported by devries, Timmer, and devries (2013). 8
9 ZAMBIA: VALUE ADDED SHARE (current price) 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Agriculture Mining Manufacturing Utilities Construction Trade services Transport services Business services Dwellings Government services Personal services (Shimada 2016, based on Gronnengen Africa Sector database as reported by devries, Timmer, and devries (2013). 9
10 TANZANIA: VALUE ADDED SHARE (current price) 40.0% 35.0% 30.0% 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% Agriculture Mining Manufacturing Utilities Construction Trade services Transport services Business services Dwellings Government services Personal services 0.0% (Shimada 2016, based on Gronnengen Africa Sector database as reported by devries, Timmer, and devries (2013). 10
11 KENYA: 60.0% VALUE ADDED SHARE (current price) 50.0% Agriculture 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% Mining Manufacturing Utilities Construction Trade services Transport services Business services Dwellings Government services Personal services 0.0% (Shimada 2016, based on Gronnengen Africa Sector database as reported by devries, Timmer, and devries (2013). 11
12 ETHIOPIA: 90.0% VALUE ADDED SHARE (current price) 80.0% 70.0% 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% Agriculture Mining Manufacturing Utilities Construction Trade services Transport services Business services Dwellings Government services Personal services 0.0% (Shimada 2016, based on Gronnengen Africa Sector database as reported by devries, Timmer, and devries (2013). 12
13 ETHIOPIA: LABOR SHARE (EXCLD. AGRICULTURE) 12.00% 10.00% 8.00% 6.00% 4.00% 2.00% Mining Manufacturing Utilities Construction Trade services Transport services Business services Dwellings Government services Personal services 0.00% (Shimada 2016, based on Gronnengen Africa Sector database as reported by devries, Timmer, and devries (2013). 13
14 3. PEOPLE ARE MISALLOCATED 14
15 AGENDA 1. Why Economic Transformation? 1) Employment for youth 2) Declining trend of manufacturing sector 3) People are misallocated 2. How does Kaizen contribute to the transformation? - Kaizen as a part of Industrial Policy 3. What is the role of the government? - Preliminary findings from a Kaizen project in Latin America
16 AGENDA 1. Why Economic Transformation? 1) Employment for youth 2) Declining trend of manufacturing sector 3) People are misallocated 2. How does Kaizen contribute to the transformation? - Kaizen as a part of Industrial Policy 3. What is the role of the government? - Preliminary findings from a Kaizen project in Latin America
17 SPEED AND GRADUALISM: PREPARATION FOR NEXT STAGE Leather processing Floriculture Shoemaking SMEs Support 17
18 Share of SMEs in Japan large 0.3% medium 13.2% small 86.5% (Source: Author based on the data by SMEs Agency of Japan) (Source: EU 2016)
19 FORWARD/BACKWARD LINKAGES Barros, Gustavo, & Guilhoto, Joaquim José Martins. (2014). The Regional Economic Structure of Brazil in 1959: An Overview Based on an Interstate Input-Output Matrix. Revista Brasileira de Economia, 68(3), S
20 KAIZEN: FOUNDATION OF QUALITY Working Practice Innovation and Technological Know-how 20 Level of Sophistication (Modified by this author based on John Sutton 2013)
21 THE GENESIS Tokyo aaer WWII Hyper-infla5on due to short supply of goods Policy priority: Increase produc5on
22 PRIORITY PRODUCTION SYSTEM There was no coal available for industrial produc5on. Allocate necessary resources to produce coal (70% of the government finances went to this sector alone). With increased produc5on of coal, basic goods, fer5lizer and electricity were produced. Further enhance the produc5on of coal.
23 HORIZONTAL AND VERTICAL SPILLOVER Industrial Policy Spillover and crowding-in effects among sectors (Iron, Coal, Ship building, Electricity, Infrastructure.) Spillover to supporting industries
24 KAIZEN AND LABOR MOVEMENT Soon after the war, the GHQ released communist leaders from prison to liberate Japan. However, the labor movement became too active and combative, and spread all over Japan. In1946, more than 300,000 workers joined a strike. In1955, the Japan Productivity Center (JPC) was established to receive aid from the US; however, labor union was against the movement. (For more detail, refer to Shimada (forthcoming)) 24
25 THREE PRINCIPLES Three guiding principles of Japan s productivity movement 1. Expansion of employment 2. Cooperation between labor and management 3. Fair distribution of the fruits of productivity : Aid from the US : 3,986 people trained in the US.
26 AGENDA 1. Why Economic Transformation? 1) Employment for youth 2) Declining trend of manufacturing sector 3) People are misallocated 2. How does Kaizen contribute to the transformation? - Kaizen as a part of Industrial Policy 1) Prepare for Next Stage: Speed and Gradualism 2) Forward and Backward Linkages 3) Three guiding principles 3. What is the role of the government? - Preliminary findings from a Kaizen project in Latin America
27 AGENDA 1. Why Economic Transformation? 1) Employment for youth 2) Declining trend of manufacturing sector 3) People are misallocated 2. How does Kaizen contribute to the transformation? - Kaizen as a part of Industrial Policy 1) Prepare for Next Stage: Speed and Gradualism 2) Forward and Backward Linkages 3) Three guiding principles 3. What is the role of the government? - Preliminary findings from a Kaizen project in Latin America
28 WHAT IS THE ROLE OF GOVERNMENT? Researchers: Go Shimada and Prof. Tetsushi Sonobe (GRIPS) Project : A Kaizen project in Central America and Caribbean Region ( CEFOF project ) 94 companies in 8 countries: Guatemala, Belize, Honduras, El Salvador, Nicaragua, Panama, Dominican Republic, Costa Rica Project period:
29 PRELIMINARY FINDINGS 1. Kaizen is useful, but managers are not necessary convinced its usefulness from the beginning. 2. Three principles were achieved. 1) Employment increased 2) Good management-employee relationship was generated 3) Wage raised 3. It is not always easy for companies to introduce Kaizen. The governments needs to support them. (The detail results of tables will be available as a journal paper soon)
30 ASYMMETRTY OF INFORMATION Asymmetry of information leads to economic inefficiency (Parate optimality not achieved). New management introduction = high cost (including opportunity cost) Under the asymmetry of information, the amount of investment will become much less than optimal level.
31 CONCLUSION 1. It is essential for Africa to transform its economy to manufacturing sector for sustainable growth in the future. 2. Kazien provides a platform for macroeconomic growth in the future, promoting SMEs. 3. Government support is key for SMEs to introduce kaizen. 1) Kaizen is useful. 2) Employment increased, wage raised 3) It is not always easy for SMEs to introduce kaizen without support.
32 Finally, Kaizen makes you happy! Managers Employees Do you think Kaizen made you happy?? Yes 90 (100%) 84 (96.6%) No 0 ( 0%) 3 ( 3.4%)
33 Thank you!
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