E&AS Offset Proposal Example With all PJM Zones
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1 E&AS Offset Proposal Example With all PJM Zones Paul M. Sotkiewicz, Ph.D CSTF August 19, 2014
2 PJM Proposal Outline Still requires the need to model historic revenues that will be adjusted for the forward looking aspect Still gets a sense of volatility without developing hourly price shapes for energy or daily price shapes for gas Builds on the simplicity of what Brattle has proposed for ISO-NE in looking forward Incorporates gas prices both historically and in the forward curves Looking at this monthly over the year Forward market heat rate by month Historic market heat rate by month 2
3 PJM Proposal Historic Monthly Market Heat Rate 3
4 PJM Proposal Future Monthly Market Heat Rate 4
5 PJM Proposal Example for January 5
6 PJM Straw Proposal Putting it All Together 6
7 Historic Data for Examples Calculated historical E&AS using the current methodology 2010 to 2013 Peak hour dispatch method Use historic zonal LMP data and historic gas prices at the relevant gas trading point to determine historic market heat rates 7
8 Mapping Gas Price Points to Zones ZONE LMP Gas Price Point AECO Transco-Z6 (non-ny) AEP COLUMBIA - APP APS COLUMBIA - APP ATSI COLUMBIA - APP BGE Transco-Z6 (non-ny) COMED Chicago Citygates DAY COLUMBIA - APP DEOK COLUMBIA - APP DOM Transco-Z5 (non-wgl) DPL Transco-Z6 (non-ny) DUQ COLUMBIA - APP JCPL TETCO M3 METED TETCO M3 PECO TETCO M3 PENELEC DOMINION - NORTH PEPCO Transco-Z6 (non-ny) PPL TETCO M3 PSEG Transco-Z6 (NY) RECO Transco-Z6 (NY) 8
9 Use of NYMEX/CME Henry Hub Gas Forward Forward Market Data for Examples For other gas trading points develop forward curves relative to historic basis with HH Use historic basis to develop synthetic forwards where forward basis contracts do not exist Forwards pulled on June 20, 2014 Use of NYMEX/CME Peak Zonal Prices Does not require making basis adjustments from Western Hub Forwards pulled on June 20,
10 Previous Example: PJM Proposal ($/MW-yr) in RTO Year Historic Method PJM Proposal 2011 $25, $24, $20, $15, $15, $15, Yr. Avg $20, $18, Historic Method uses peak-hour dispatch method defined in the tariff PJM Method uses PJM Western Hub historic prices (2011, 2012, 2013) and calendar year 2018 forward prices from June 20, PJM Method in this example uses Columbia Gas TCO synthetic forward prices based on historic basis differential with Henry Hub. 10
11 Previous Example: PJM Proposal Market Heat Rates ($/mmbtu) Year Historic 2018 Forward Ratio: Forward to Historic Historic Method uses peak-hour dispatch method defined in the tariff PJM Method uses PJM Western Hub historic prices (2011, 2012, 2013) and calendar year 2018 forward prices from June 20, PJM Method in this example uses Columbia Gas TCO synthetic forward prices based on historic basis differential with Henry Hub. 11
12 Historic vs. Proposed Forward E&AS by Zone ($/MW-year) AECO AEP APS ATSI BGE Historic Forward Historic Forward Historic Forward Historic Forward Historic Forward 2010 $41,960 $32,895 $11,860 $11,854 $33,085 $24,827 n/a n/a $52,865 $42, $41,061 $30,621 $19,743 $17,364 $29,753 $22,587 n/a n/a $43,476 $35, $25,847 $17,735 $17,634 $12,522 $22,601 $14,437 $19,254 $13,370 $37,781 $25, $19,149 $15,844 $12,538 $10,906 $16,585 $12,398 $15,969 $13,571 $27,823 $23,334 12
13 Historic vs. Forward Market Heat Rates by Zone ($/mmbtu) AECO AEP APS ATSI BGE Historic Forward Historic Forward Historic Forward Historic Forward Historic Forward n/a n/a n/a n/a
14 Historic vs. Proposed Forward E&AS by Zone ($/MW-year) COMED DAY DEOK DOM DPL Historic Forward Historic Forward Historic Forward Historic Forward Historic Forward 2010 $9,740 $9,617 $12,069 $13,144 n/a n/a $42,290 $35,187 $41,188 $31, $13,707 $12,773 $19,918 $18,957 n/a n/a $33,754 $28,118 $38,769 $28, $13,913 $10,247 $20,109 $15,181 $16,914 $12,801 $26,343 $18,120 $33,603 $21, $10,663 $9,809 $12,728 $11,787 $11,066 $10,197 $19,379 $15,958 $24,066 $18,280 14
15 Historic vs. Forward Market Heat Rates by Zone ($/mmbtu) COMED DAY DEOK DOM DPL Historic Forward Historic Forward Historic Forward Historic Forward Historic Forward n/a n/a n/a n/a
16 Historic vs. Proposed Forward E&AS by Zone ($/MW-year) DUQ JCPL METED PECO PENELEC Historic Forward Historic Forward Historic Forward Historic Forward Historic Forward 2010 $19,691 $18,962 $39,295 $33,035 $38,928 $35,933 $38,320 $32,022 $25,724 $22, $23,018 $20,693 $39,035 $32,258 $35,164 $28,999 $40,170 $32,155 $29,781 $27, $19,762 $14,239 $24,237 $18,292 $24,697 $18,280 $25,518 $18,666 $24,313 $18, $15,319 $13,612 $23,750 $20,088 $19,495 $16,790 $18,726 $16,498 $23,309 $19,409 16
17 Historic vs. Forward Market Heat Rates by Zone ($/mmbtu) DUQ JCPL METED PECO PENELEC Historic Forward Historic Forward Historic Forward Historic Forward Historic Forward
18 Historic vs. Proposed Forward E&AS by Zone ($/MW-year) PEPCO PPL PSEG RECO RTO Historic Forward Historic Forward Historic Forward Historic Forward Historic Forward 2010 $50,559 $37,052 $33,861 $27,449 $38,037 $33,369 $35,789 $31,150 $24,756 $20, $39,806 $30,092 $36,833 $30,327 $32,630 $29,136 $27,825 $24,858 $25,439 $20, $33,942 $21,444 $21,638 $15,497 $23,795 $18,575 $22,108 $17,303 $20,049 $13, $25,824 $19,687 $18,403 $15,326 $19,297 $17,511 $22,315 $21,701 $15,184 $12,474 18
19 Historic vs. Forward Market Heat Rates by Zone ($/mmbtu) PEPCO PPL PSEG RECO RTO Historic Forward Historic Forward Historic Forward Historic Forward Historic Forward
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