The Plant and Equipment Wellness Way to Enterprise Asset Management Success and World Class Operational Excellence

Transcription

1 The Plant and Equipment Wellness Way to Enterprise Asset Management Success and World Class Operational Excellence 3-day training course DAY 2 1

2 PEW/PWW Course Content Day 1 Foundations Physics of Failure Reliability Risk Cost of Failure Series Arrangements Human Error Life Cycle Reliability Improvement Day 2 PWW Processes Risk Identification Risk Selection Risk Control Planning Risk Control Introduction Risk Monitoring Risk Continual Elimination Day 3 Reliability Creation Business Risk Reduction Stress to Process Model Life Cycle Risk Reduction Operational Risk Reduction Machinery Risk Reduction Making Changes 2

3 Start by Developing Situational Process Maps Process Maps Apply to equipment Apply to work processes The Plant and Equipment Wellness Methodology Operational Risk Assessment Identify failure costs Identify size of risks Risk Control Plans for Maximum Reliability Operational Strategy Design Strategy Maintenance Strategy Identify failure causes Identify chance of failure Set Equipment Criticality Write control plans indicating actions and responsibility Precision Operation Precision Specifications BD PM PdM Design Out Precision ACE 3T Precision Operation Procedures Equipment Selection & Engineering Design ACE 3T Precision Maintenance Tasks Script the details Select strategy Write ACE 3T Procedures Parallel proof tests for activities Update database Assess Effectiveness in Controlling Risk Measure extent of improvement Cost against world class results Accept or Improve Reliability Expert team reviews Limit operating parameters Skills upgrade Design-out failures Update and Action Risk Control Plans Change strategy Update database New training New tools and equipment New procedures 3

4 PEW/PWW Course Content Day 2 PWW Processes Risk Identification Risk Selection Risk Control Planning Risk Control Introduction Risk Monitoring Risk Continual Elimination 4

5 Plant Wellness Process 1 Risk Identification Develop Process Maps of Business Machine Work Identify Risks in Each Process Step Categorize Effects of Each Risk Downtime Safety, Health, Environment Loss Rate Loss Quality Loss Determine Defect and Failure Total Business- Wide Costs 5

6 Draw the Process Map to See the Chance of Success R business = R 1 x R 2 x R 3 x x R n R job = R 1 x R 2 x R 3 x x R n R process = R 1 x R 2 x R 3 x x R n R machine = R 1 x R 2 x R 3 x x R n Without tools to find exactly what they need to focus on, without evidence that high reliability is worthwhile, and without an achievable plan to deliver it, organisations will waste away. 6

7 No Certainty; Risk Changes Unless Controlled Risk = Consequence x [Frequency of Opportunity x Chance of Failure at Each Opportunity] Chance Interaction of uncoordinated agents Consequence Scale-free outcomes Risk Risk Events are more likely than by Chance Driven by a few key factors Chance Consequence Controlling risk demands that an organisation has the culture and practices to guarantee continuous, rigorous compliance to risk reduction practices, else the chance of failure rises over time as systems degrade, and eventually the worst will happen. 7

8 Aim to Find the Optimal Risk/Reliability Balance Chance Interactio n of uncoordinat ed agents Risk Events are more likely than by Chance Consequence Scale-free outcomes Driven by a few key factors Risk Chance Consequence DESIGN PM CM RTF OUT PdM PrM 1-RELIABILITY Risk = Consequence of Failure x [Frequency of Opportunity x Chance of Failure at Opportunity] Equipment Reliability and Operating Risk are inversely proportional 8

9 Defect Creation and Failure Initiation Defect and Failure Cost Surge ,500 20,000 Serious Failure Losses Repairs Defect Modes The Failure Pyramid Source: Ledet, Winston, The Manufacturing Game 9

10 Common Defect Management Strategies 10

11 Defect Elimination and Failure Prevention If you don t want problems you need to prevent their cause. If you don t want high maintenance you need to prevent the causes of that maintenance. 11

12 The Trouble with Accepting a Defect Soft-foot is an example of a defect regularly brought into companies, that then causes on-going problems Bolt Head Machine Foot Shank Thread Frame Stack or Deck of shims Bolt Head Machine Foot Shim Shim Shim Shim Shim Shank Thread Frame The shims have made the connection more unreliable. There are now more things to go wrong. They have added cost, additional maintenance and certainty of human error at some point in time. IT DID NOT HAVE TO BE SO! 12

13 Challenge Yourself to IT5 Machine Health Standards Reliability lives within 10 micron of perfection: Become a 5 micron quality company API ANSI ANSI pump base flatness = 0.375mm/m (0.005in/ft) this standard causes soft-foot API 610 flatness = 0.150mm/m (0.002in/ft) this standard has few soft-foot problems 13

14 Defect and Failure Total (DaFT) Costs and Losses go Company-wide It s unbelievable how much money is wasted all over the business with each failure. The one I like is the time lost matching invoices against purchase orders that did not need to be raised, but for the failure! The lost life value of parts is expensive too. 14

15 Failure Costs Surge throughout a Company Every department in the business gets hit from the failure cost surge. Curtailed Life Labour Waste Administration Consequence Equipment Failure Cost Surge Product Sales Materials Services Capital Equipment Whenever I ve calculated the DAFT Costs they came out between 7 and 15 times the direct repair cost. I use 10 times as a rule of thumb. 15

16 Calculate the True Downtime Costs 16

17 Equipment Process Maps Show Us Series Risks Power Provider Transmission Line Transformer Wiring and Circuitry Power Arrives Power Supply Switch Board Power Cable Electric Motor Drive Coupling Bearing Housing Wet End Product Flows Bus Bars Drive Rack Starter Electricity Flows Frame Shaft Bearings Pump Shaft Shaft Rotates Terminal Connections Motor Frame Stator Brushes Rotor Motor Bearings Motor Shaft Shaft Rotates Base Plate Holding Bolts Pedestal Foundation Supports Equipment Suction Pump Shaft Mechanical Seal Impeller Volute Cut Water Discharge Liquid Flows Base Plate Holding Bolts Pedestal Foundation Supports Equipment 17

18 PEW SOLUTION: Physics of Failure Causes of Atomic and Microstructure Stress 18

19 Equipment Risk Identification Table Equip Pump-set 01 Assembly 1 Power Supply 2 Switch Board 3 Sub-Assy or Parts Panel Connection 4 Drive Rack 5 Motor Starter Sub-Sub Assy or Parts 6 Power Cable 7 Electric Motor 8 Connection 9 Motor frame 10 Base Plate 11 Holding Bolts 12 Pedestal 13 Foundation 14 Stator 15 Brushes 16 Rotor 17 Bearings 18 Shaft 19 Drive Coupling 20 Bearing Housing 22 Shaft Risks - Possible Causes of Failure Effects of Worst Likely Failure DAFT Cost of Worst Failure Power Provider failure Downtime $100,000 Lightening strike 1. Downtime $200,000 Fire Downtime $200,000 Liquid ingress Downtime $200,000 Impact 1. Downtime $200,000 Loose clamp bolts 1. Fire in switchboard 2. Poor cable crimping Fire in switchboard 1. Dust from Product Fire in switchboard Poor assembly 1. Fire in switchboard 3. Rust into place 1. Downtime Overload 1. Downtime Short circuit 1. Major electrical burn Comments $25,000 per hour. Minimum 4 hours if power is turned off Minimum 8 hours if power is lost due to failure 19

20 Process Map the Job Activity to See Series Risk 20

21 Work Activity Risk Identification Table Dep't Process Job Task Production Monthly Cost Report Start Information Collection Collate Monthly Costs Compile Spreadsheet Review Cost Spreadsheet Write Monthly Report Gather Sales information from Accounts Put costs into cost centres Enter cash flow details using data entry procedure Department Manager checks spreadsheet Confirm all costs are recorded Department Manager writes report Report forwarded to Head Office Risks - Possible Causes of Failure 1. Information not available 2. Wrong information provided 3. Incomplete information presented Effects of Worst Likely Failure Report not completed on time Bad management decision Bad management decision DAFT Cost of Worst Failure $500 $10,000 $10,000 Risk Control Plans Warn Accounts of impending report date Get Accounts to doublecheck cost information is correct Get Accounts to doublecheck cost information is complete Actions to be Taken Set-up a electronic schedule entry to automatically warn Accounts Manager one week prior report due date Accounts to include double check actions into their work procedure Accounts to include double check actions into their work procedure Proof that Actions are Completed Department Manager to check schedule entered Accounts to send copy of revised procedure to Department Secretary for review Accounts to send copy of revised procedure to Department Secretary for review 21

22 PEW/PWW Course Content Day 2 PWW Processes Risk Identification Risk Selection Risk Control Planning Risk Control Introduction Risk Monitoring Risk Continual Elimination 22

23 Plant Wellness Process 2 Risk Rating Script Asset Performance required to Deliver the Business Vision Determine the Equipment Criticality Risk Rating Grade Each Risk by its Impact on Reaching the Business Vision Low Risk Medium Risk High Risk Extreme Risk 23

24 Operating Performance Uncertain Component Degradation Rates mean Uncertain Equipment Failure Dates and Costs Smooth Running Do Maintenance & Condition Monitor P Inspection Frequency (one-third of P-F interval) Repair or Replace Change in Performance Detectable F Operating Below Service Specification Impending Failure Failed Volute Wear Impeller Wear Mechanical Seal Shaft Coupling Inboard Bearing Outboard Bearing Motor Stator Windings Motor Rotor Windings Drive-end Bearing Non-Drive End Bearing P P P F F P F P F F P P F F P P F Breakdown F P Time (Depending on the situation this can be from hours to months.) Degradation Curve Concept 0 Each Part has a Degradation Curve Time or Usage Direct Coupled Centrifugal Pump 24

25 Operating Performance Operating Performance Uncertain Operating Life Remaining with Business- Wide Costs and Losses = RISK DECISIONS $ Business-Wide Costs of Failure $ $ $ $ P 1 Business-Wide Cost of Planned Repair P 1 P 2 F 1 F 1 F 2 F 2 F 3 Cost of Minor Maintenance & Condition Monitoring Time (Depending on the situation this can be from hours to months.) Time (Depending on the situation this can be from hours to months.) Future Costs and Losses Arise when a Failure is Initiated Fluctuating Degradation Rate Introduces Uncertainty in Timing and Amount of Expenditure Business-Wide Costs = maintenance cost + production costs + production losses + all other business-wide losses/costs We have a probabilistic situation! 25

26 Operating Performance Operating Performance Recognising the Extent of Your Risks Raise Work Order #1 Do WO #1 P 1 B 1 F 1 1 Expected Scenario One Month Time (Depending on the situation this can be from hours to months.) B Event Risk Envelope P 1 F 1 How long are you willing to wait to do WO #1? Worst Scenario One Week B Time (Depending on the situation this can be from hours to months.) Planned Work = $50K business-wide costs Breakdown Work = $300K business-wide costs 26

27 Operating Performance Operating Performance The Risk in Rescheduling Maintenance Work Raise Work Order #1 Do WO #1 Resched WO #1 P 1 2 B 1 2 F 1 1 One Month Expected Scenario B Time (Depending on the situation this can be from hours to months.) P 1 Worst Scenario One Week F 1 Time (Depending on the situation this can be from hours to months.) How often are you willing to reschedule WO #1? Planned Work = $50K business-wide costs Breakdown Work = $300K business-wide costs Cost of Scheduling Misjudgement = $250K loss 27

28 Use a Risk Matrix to Show Impact of Choices Nothing is Certain with Risk; It Changes Unless it is Controlled Risk = Consequence x [Frequency of Opportunity x Chance of Failure at Each Opportunity] 28

29 Reduce Chance DAFT Cost per Event $30 $100 $300 $1,000 $3,000 $10,000 $30,000 $100,000 $300,000 $1,000,000 $3,000,000 $10,000,000 $30,000,000 $100,000,000 $300,000,000 $1,000,000,000 Plot Current Operational Risk on the Matrix Likelihood of Equipment Failure Event per Year Event Count / Year Time Scale Descriptor Scale Historic Description Twice per week Once per fortnight Once per month Once per quarter 1 Once per year Once every 3 years Once per 10 years Once per 30 years Once per 100 years Once every 300 years Once every 1,000 years Once every 3,000 years Once every 10,000 years Certain Almost Certain Likely Possible Unlikely Rare Very Rare Almost Incredible Event will occur on an annual basis Event has occurred several times or more in a lifetime career Event might occur once in a lifetime career Event does occur somewhere from time to time Heard of something like it occurring elsewhere Never heard of this happening Theoretically possible but not expected to occur Note: Risk Level 1) Risk Boundary 'LOW' Level is set at total of $10,000/year Red = Extreme 2) Based on HB436:2004-Risk Management Amber = High 3) Identify 'Black Swan' events as B-S (A 'Black Swan' event is one that people say 'will not happen' because it has not yet happened) Yellow = Medium 4) DAFT Cost (Defect and Failure True Cost) is the total business-wide cost from the event Green = Low Blue = Accepted Reduce Consequence $$$ $$$ 29

30 Activity : Will these PM tasks prevent a failure? Source: Ricky Smith, Allied Reliability,

31 Activity How sure are you that a maintenance task is truly effective in preventing the equipment failure? Table shows actual results of RCM analysis to be implemented. 31

32 Risk Based Operating Strategy Know the worst case business-wide financial loss of a failure event. Make the risk visual by identifying the risk envelop on a risk matrix. Let people that know the chance-of-failure envelope make the WO scheduling decisions. Measure and track the rate of degradation when an impending failure is identified. Use stress reduction and degradation management controls to reduce the odds of a breakdown. Volute Wear Impeller Wear Mechanical Seal Shaft Coupling Inboard Bearing Outboard Bearing Motor Stator Windings Motor Rotor Windings Drive-end Bearing Non-Drive End Bearing P P P F F P F P F F P P F F P P F Breakdown F P 0 Time or Usage Good use suitable CM to detect P potential failure point sufficiently early. Better use risk based prioritisation to schedule work orders with increasing risk acknowledged and approved up the command hierarchy. Best use proactive degradation management to extends operating life and delay P. 32

33 Case Study Use a Risk Cost Calculator to Understand Impacts of Risk Management Options 33

34 Classical Risk Analysis Method Equipment Identification of Failure Causes Work Order History Frequency Analysis Consequence Analysis Risk Determination Targets, Criteria Evaluate Business Case, Recommendations 34

35 To Gauge Risk We need to Measure and See It Risk is the product of probability or likelihood that an event will happen and the cost if it does. It is a power law. The Operating Risk is the total size of the financial loss that will be incurred from a failure during operation. Risk ($/Yr) = Frequency of Occurrence (events/yr) x Consequence of Occurrence ($/event) Risk does not arise entirely randomly; rather it is affected by decision-makers present in a system, usually us. It means the risk of catastrophic events occurs more often than by pure chance. In power-law-mirrored events a few factors have huge impacts, while all the numerous rest have little effect. For risk this means there are a few key factors that influence the likelihood of catastrophe. Control these few factors and you increase the chance of success. They are known as the critical success factors. You can identify them by asking, What affects the ability to meet the objective? 35

36 Reduce Chance Identify What Risks You WILL NOT Carry Reduce Consequence This table is the basic approach to identify the extent of risk. There is full mathematical modelling as well, but this basic method is a fine start. The layout is universal. You change consequence descriptions to what you are willing to accept, and the costs to DAFT Costs you are willing to pay. 36

37 Need DaFT Costs to See Total Business Risk Apply DAFT costs when using the risk management process to get a full understanding of what it really costs the business so you can make better lifetime decisions. The DAFT Costs are horrendous and unless fully reflected in your risk analysis you will undercost your true exposure. Risk $/yr = Consequence ($) x No of Opportunities (/yr) X Chance of Failure at Opportunity Best to follow ISO Risk Management Guideline Extracted from AS

38 Equipment Criticality Equipment Criticality is used to identify operating equipment in risk order of importance to the continued operation of a facility. Those equipment items that stop the operation, or cause major costs if they fail, are identified as critical. The selection of appropriate means to prevent a failure can only be made when all the implications and knock-on effects are fully costed, understood and appreciated. 38

39 Recognising the Size of Your Equipment Risk Equipment Criticality = Operational Risk ($/yr) = Failure Frequency (/yr) x Cost Consequence ($) Equipment Criticality is a risk rating indicator. 39

40 Equipment Criticality Includes all Risks Equipment Item Process Substance Hazard Potential Consequence of Machine failure on process Hazard due to Mechanical failure potential Safety Case / Legislation Serious Business Consequence (DISCRETIONARY) Consider the nature Of the hazard Are potential consequences HIGH? Is potential for mechanical failure HIGH? Is system to be Classified Critical? Is system to be classified Critical? Is process substance hazard HIGH? Consider potential Release consequence YES NO Not CRITICAL CRITICAL for Process Substance reasons CRITICAL for potential process consequences Is potential release consequence HIGH? CRITICAL for Mechanical failure Potential hazards CRITICAL under the Regulations/ Legislation Thanks to David Finch for the slide CRITICAL for serious Business consequences 40

41 What Risks are Your Equipment Experiencing? What you see as maintenance costs is a reflection the number problems and defects suffered by your plant and equipment. Defect and Failure Cost Surge Spend on Machines by Size 10% 25% Maintenance Expenditure 65% 300KW KW 0-50KW ,500 Serious Failure Losses Repairs 20,000 Defect Modes The Failure Pyramid Source: Ledet, Winston, The Manufacturing Game 1-RELIABILITY Risk = Consequence $ x [Frequency of Opportunity x Chance of Failure at Each Opportunity] Time/Usage related Implications Time/Usage related Implications 41

42 The Application of Risk Based Principles to Managing Maintenance Hazard Identification identifies failure modes Risk Assessment establishes the probability and consequence of failure Risk Evaluation determines the acceptability of failure to safety, process etc In Maintenance you deliver the risk control strategies selected for your operation, and then check if they actually do lift the plant reliability. If they are not working well enough it requires an investigation to understand what is happening with the delivery of the strategy. Risk Control reduces risk through effective maintenance practices Monitoring Verifies initial assumptions and maintenance effectiveness Includes Regular Process Auditing 42

43 How the Risk Matrix Frequency is Developed Risk Level Descriptor Description Indicative Frequency (expected to occur) Actual Failures per Year (historic evidence basis) Likelihood of Failure per Year (opportunity for failure basis) Opportunities (No. of Times a Situation Arises) Probability of Failure 6 Certain Failure event will occur at this site annually or more often Once a year or more often 1 or more Count every time the situation for an event occurs 1 if failure results every time the situation arises 5 Likely Failure event regularly occurs at this site Once every 2 to 3 years 1 in 2 = in 3 = 0.33 Count every time the situation for an event occurs 0.1 if failure results 1 in 10 times the situation arises 4 Possible Failure event is expected to occur on this site Once every 4 to 6 years 1 in 4 = in 6 = 0.17 Count every time the situation for an event occurs 0.01 if failure results 1 in 100 times the situation arises 3 Unlikely Failure event occurs from time to time on this site or in the industry Once every 7 to 10 years 1 in 7 = in 10 = 0.1 Count every time the situation for an event occurs if failure results 1 in 1,000 times the situation arises 2 Rare Failure event could occur on this site or in the industry but doubtful Once every 11 to 15 years 1 in 11 = in 15 =0.07 Count every time the situation for an event occurs if failure results 1 in 10,000 times the situation arises 1 Very Rare Failure event hardly heard of in the industry. May occur but in exceptional circumstances Once every 16 to 20 years 1 in 16 = in 20 = 0.05 Count every time the situation for an event occurs if failure results 1 in 100,000 times the situation arises 43

44 Risk Identification and Removal Worksheets Before setting-up an RCFA Team, use this simple approach with the plant operator and maintainers. They usually know what is going on in the place! 44

45 Match Equipment Maintenance and Operating Practices to Equipment Criticality Component Sub- Component Total Failure Cost Risk Rating Equipment Criticality at Present Required Operating Practice Required Maintenance Equipment Criticality AFTER Mitigations System Loss Cost $ Sub-System Loss Cost $ Event Frequency SHOW IT ON A RISK MATRIX SHOW IT ON A RISK MATRIX Engine Risk = Total of sub-systems????? Fuel system 1500 Often E Monitor operation Regular service????? Crank and pistons 1000 Occasional E Monitor operation Regular service????? Engine block 2500 Rare H Monitor operation Regular service????? Cooling system 1000 Occasional H Monitor operation Regular service????? Oil system 1000 Often E Monitor operation Regular service????? Ignition system 1500 Often E Monitor operation Regular service????? Gearbox 3000 Occasional H Regular service You put this table together with the people that operate the plant in face-to-face meetings. It s their money you will be spending, and they need to be happy with how it impacts their costs and their production plans.????? 45

46 PEW/PWW Course Content Day 2 PWW Processes Risk Identification Risk Selection Risk Control Planning Risk Control Introduction Risk Monitoring Risk Continual Elimination 46

47 Plant Wellness Process 3 Risk Controls NEW CAPITAL PROJECTS, PLANT AND EQUIPMENT EXISTING OPERATIONS PLANT AND EQUIPMENT Design and Operations Cost Totally Optimised Risk (DOCTOR) Select Risk Controls identified using FMECA and RGCA Chance / Consequence Reduction Strategies Defect Elimination and Failure Prevention Documentation Plant and Equipment Risk Management Plans Accuracy Controlled Enterprise Operating Tasks Maintenance Tasks Engineering Re-Design Confirm Extent of Risk Reduction and Amount of DAFT Cost Savings 47

48 Risk Reduction Reduce Chance or Reduce Consequence? Risk = Chance x Consequence $ Chance Reduction Strategies Engineering and Maintenance Standards Failure Design-out - Corrective Maintenance Failure Mode Effects Criticality Analysis (FMECA) Statistical Process Control Hazard and Operability Study (HAZOP) Root Cause Failure Analysis (RCFA) Precision Maintenance Hazard Identification (HAZID) Training and Up-skilling Quality Management Systems Planning and Scheduling Continuous Improvement Supply Chain Management Accuracy Controlled Enterprise SOPs (ACE 3T) Fewer Design, Operation, Cost Total Optimisation Review Profits Revenue (DOCTOR) Lost Defect and Failure True Cost (DAFTC) Oversize/De-rate Equipment Total Cost Reliability Engineering Fixed Cost Done to Wasted reduce Fixed the Costschance of failure T i m e Variable Cost Consequence Reduction Strategies Preventative Maintenance Predictive Maintenance Total Productive Maintenance (TPM) Non-Destructive Testing Vibration Analysis Oil Analysis Thermography Motor Current Analysis Prognostic Analysis Emergency Management Computerised Maintenance Management System (CMMS) Key Performance Indicators (KPI) Risk Based Inspection (RBI) $ Accumulated Wasted Variable Operator Watch-keeping and Failure Costs Revenue Value Contribution Mapping (Process step activity based costing) Logistics, stores and warehouses Maintenance Engineering Done to reduce the cost of failure N e v e r e n d s Wasted Fixed Costs Fewer profits lost, but firefighting is high Total Cost Fixed Cost Variable Cost t 1 t 2 Effects on Profit of Reducing Chance Only t 1 t 2 t 3 t 4 t 5 t 6 Output / Time 48 Effects on Profitability of Reducing Consequence Only Output / Time

49 Maintenance Strategy for Risk Management Equipment Asset DAFT Costing Equipment Criticality Parts Level FMEA or RGCA Engineering, Maintenance and Operational Risk Management Requirements Life Cycle Choices Critical Spares ACE 3T Work Procedures Skilled Resource Requirements Condition Monitoring 49

50 Number of Events PEW SOLUTION: Apply Chance Reduction by Proactive Risk Management Risk = Chance x Consequence Chance Reduction Strategies Engineering & Maintenance Standards Design-out Maintenance Precision Maintenance 3T Standardised Operating Procedures Failure Mode Effect Criticality Analysis Reliability Growth Cause Analysis Hazard and Operability Study Hazard Identification Root Cause Failure Analysis Training and Up-skilling Quality Management Systems Planning and Scheduling Continuous Improvement Supply Chain Management Accuracy Controlled Enterprise Design and Operations Cost Totally Optimized Risk Defect and Failure Total Cost De-rate/Oversize Equipment Reliability Engineering Proactive prevention of failure IMPROVE PROCESSES Range of Values of a Critical Parameter Consequence Reduction Strategies Preventive Maintenance Corrective Maintenance Breakdown Maintenance Total Productive Maintenance Non-Destructive Testing Vibration Analysis Oil Analysis Thermography Motor Current Analysis Prognostic Analysis Emergency Management Computerized Maintenance Management System Key Performance Indicators Risk Based Inspection Operator Watch-keeping Process Step Contribution Mapping (Process Step activity based costing) Stores and Warehouses Maintenance Engineering Reactive response to failure 50

51 3 Factors Risk Reduction Reduce Chance, Opportunity and/or Consequence? Risk ($/yr) = Consequence of Failure x Frequency of Failure Risk = Consequence of Failure x [Opportunity to Fail x (1 Chance of Success)] Consequence of Failure Reduction Strategies Strategies presume failure event occurs and act to minimise consequent losses Preventive Maintenance Shutdown Maintenance Predictive Maintenance Non-Destructive Testing Vibration Analysis Oil Analysis Thermography Motor Current Analysis Total Productive Maintenance (TPM) Prognostic Analysis Criticality Analysis Emergency Management Computerised Maint Mgmt Syst(CMMS) Key Performance Indicators (KPI) Risk Based Inspection (RBI) Operator Watch-keeping Value Contribution Mapping (Process step activity based costing) Logistics, stores and warehouses Defect and Failure True Cost (DAFTC) Maintenance Engineering Done to reduce the cost of failure Opportunity to Fail Reduction Strategies Strategies prevent opportunities for a failure event arising Engineering / Maintenance Standards Statistical Process Control Degradation Management Reliability Growth Cause Analysis (RGCA) Lubrication Management Hazard and Operability Study (HAZOP) Hazard Identification (HAZID) Failure Design-out Maintenance Failure Mode Effects Analysis (FMEA) Hazard and Operability Study (HAZOP) Root Cause Failure Analysis (RCFA) Precision Maintenance Training and Up-skilling Quality Management Systems Planning and Scheduling Continuous Improvement Supply Chain Management Accuracy Controlled SOPs (ACE 3T) Design, Operation, Cost Total Optimisation Review (DOCTOR) Reliability Engineering Done to reduce the frequency of failure Chance to Fail Reduction Strategies Strategies reduce probability of failure initiation if failure opportunity present Training and Up-skilling Oversize / De-rate Equipment Hardier Materials of Construction Personal Protective Equipment (PPE ) Segregation / Separation Controlled Atmosphere Environment e.g. +ve / -ve pressures, explosion proof atmos Interestingly, Chance Reduction choices are best made during design. 51

52 Equipment Reliability Strategies Rate of Failing How to Drive the Chance Curve Down? How to Push the Time of the Curve Back? How to Pull the Position of the Curve Lower? Quality Control, Training, Precision Assembly Time Age of Equipment Strategies for the Infant Mortality Maintenance Zone Rate of Failing PM, PdM, Precision Operation How to Drive the Position of the Curve Lower? Time Age of Equipment Strategies for the Random Failure Maintenance Zone Rate of Failing Replace Equipment, Add more components to renewal PM How to Lower the Curve Steepness? How to Push the Start of the Rising Curve Back? Time Age of Equipment Strategies for the Wear-Out Failure Maintenance Zone 52

53 Likelihood Match Maintenance Strategies to Risk Doing Maintenance must produce Risk Reduction. One way to chose the maintenance type is to match against the risk matrix. The high risks must be prevented by using the right maintenance type for the situation. Move from Reactive to Proactive to Risk Reduction. Design-out Maintenance Breakdown Maintenance Preventive Maintenance Precision Maintenance Sampling Predictive Maintenance Continuous Monitoring Predictive Maintenance Design-out Maintenance Consequence Choosing the right maintenance types is not sufficient to guarantee risk reduction. The human element must also be addressed to ensure the strategies are being applied correctly and effectively. 1-RELIABILITY Operating Risk = Consequence of Failure x [Frequency of Event x Probability of Failure at Event] 53

54 Maintenance Strategies Matched to Risk Levels Consequence Insignificant Minor Moderate Major Catastrophic Frequency Certain PM / Precision CM / Precision Precision / Design-out Design-out Design-out 5 Likely PM / Precision CM / Precision Precision / Design-out Precision / Design-out Design-out 4 Possible PM / Precision PM / Precision CM / Precision Precision / Design-out Precision / Design-out 3 Unlikely BD PM / Precision CM / Precision CM / Precision Precision / Design-out 2 Rare BD PM / Precision PM / Precision CM / Precision CM / Precision 1 Very Rare BD PM / Precision PM / Precision CM / Precision CM / Precision 54

55 Using a Risk Matrix to Model Our Choices 55

56 Example: Risk Cost Calculation for Roller 56

57 Developing Equipment Risk Reduction Strategy Equip Tag No Pump 1 Current Failure Events Bearings fail Failure Events Frequency DAFT Cost of Failure 2 years $35,000 Risk Reduction Activity Laser shaft alignment to precision practices every time the pump is installed Improvement Expected A precision alignment is expected to deliver 5 years between bearing failures Freq of Activity Every stripdown Cost / Yr $200 Failure Event Reduction Failure interval now likely to be greater than 5 years Oil and wear particle analysis every 1,000 hours of operation Oil and Wear Particle Analysis can indicate the start of failure several hundred hours prior the event 1,000 hrs or Six monthly $600 Failure will be prevented by a predictive planned condition monitoring task Visual inspection by the Operator each shift of the oil level in the sight glass Visual inspection of the oil level ensure the bearings are always lubricated Every Dayshift No cost Failure will be prevented by operator condition monitoring Operator physically touches pump bearing housing each week to feel for changed temperature and vibration Touching the bearing housing will identify impending problems before they cause failure Wednesday Dayshift No cost Failure will be prevented by operator condition monitoring Motor load monitoring using process control system to count overloads Pump performance monitoring of discharge flow and pressure using process control system Monitoring the electrical load will identify how badly and how often the equipment is stressed by overload Monitoring the pump performance will indicate gradual changes of pump internal clearances affecting service duty Continuous with monthly report to Ops Manager Continuous with monthly report to Ops Manager $100 $100 Poor operating practices will be identified and personnel trained in correct methods No direct impact on reducing risk of pump failure, but identifies performance drop and allows planned maintenance to rectify internal wear. 57

58 Reduce Chance Identify the New Risk Level Reduce Consequence 58

59 Use Low Cost Ways to Monitor Low Risks Current application of CBM is typically on critical machines what of the rest? CBM = Condition Based Maintenance = PdM = Predictive Maintenance Machines by size 10% 25% 300KW KW 65% 0-50KW Maintenance Expenditure It s easy to be focused on looking after the condition of important equipment while lesser items are left to fail. But breakdown maintenance is up to 10 times the cost of planned maintenance. Unless you monitor low priority plant with low-cost methods and operator watch-keeping, you ll spend your money fixing breakdowns on unimportant equipment. Stethoscope Laser Thermometer Touch Thermometer Vibration Pen Boroscope Operator & Checklist First use low-tech options to monitor then hi-tech to investigate problems. 59

60 PEW/PWW Course Content Day 2 PWW Processes Risk Identification Risk Selection Risk Control Planning Risk Control Introduction Risk Monitoring Risk Continual Elimination 60

61 Plant Wellness Process 4 - Introduce Risk Control Identify Maximum Failure- Free Service Duty for Plant and Equipment Set and Write Operating, Maintenance and Work Quality Standards that When Met Will Deliver Risk Control Write Specifications for Plant and Equipment Write ACE 3T Procedures for Operations, Maintenance, Engineering and Projects Develop Computerised Database of Operations- Wide Quality Standards Training and Competency Assessment Plans for Upskilling Personnel Make Database Available to All Personnel Train People until Competency is Achieved Build Teams and Grant Autonomy and Responsibility 61

62 Chance of Event Chance of Event Controlling the Chance of a Failure Event Uncontrolled processes produce a range of outcomes without consistency Consequence of Event Only accept this range of outcomes because they produce good results Good Better Best Better Good Do not accept these outcomes because they produce high risk of failure X X Do not accept these outcomes because they produce high risk of failure Specification Consequence of Event 62

63 Chance of Event Being in control and capable In control and capable In control but not capable Out of control In control but not capable Out of control In control and capable Process designed to allow its natural variation to consistently produce a range of outcomes within specification Output 63

64 Standard to Meet ACE 3T Quality Management System is used for Continual System-Wide Improvement With maintenance you need to drive a continuous improvement culture. Requirements, Needs, Expectations Effect of Using a Quality System Time The Meaning of Quality Degree to which inherent quality characteristics meet stated or implied needs. Performance Level Quality Improvement Tools Plan Do Measure Improve Measure means to check you have statistical control We want to do all work with certainty that it will improve reliability. To do that we need a business system that promotes and continually improves the accuracy and quality of our engineering, operations and maintenance workmanship processes across the life cycle. Such system is called a Quality Management System. In PEW we use ACE 3Ts throughout the business and its processes. 64

65 We create lasting reliability in our machines by stopping these problems starting Electric motor drive end bearing 65

66 Many Opportunities for Errors in Our Work A Job Task 1 Task 2 Task 3 Task 4 Task 5 Outcome P 1 P 2 P 3 P 4 P 5 A Job Task 1 Task 2 Task 3 Task 4 Task 5 Outcome P 1 P 2 P 3 P 4 P 5 Activity 1-1 Activity 1-2 Activity 1-3 Activity 1-4 Activity 1-5 Activity 2-1 Activity 2-2 Activity 2-3 Activity 2-4 Activity 2-5 Activity 3-1 Activity 3-2 Activity 3-3 Activity 3-4 Activity 3-5 Activity 4-1 Activity 4-2 Activity 4-3 Activity 4-4 Activity 4-5 Activity 5-1 Activity 5-2 Activity 5-3 Activity 5-4 Activity

67 Design Organisations that Support Reliability Who uses the equipment? CEO CEO Who knows the equipment capability? Production Engineering Marketing Admin Senior Mgmt Who knows the process? Shopfloor Maintenance Middle Mgmt and Engineering Supervisory Shopfloor Where does the equipment knowledge lay? What equipment knowledge is needed by each level? What equipment skills & abilities are needed by each level? Who owns the equipment? 67

68 Process Focused Not Department Focused Production Shopfloor To Process Structure Engineering Maintenance CEO Mission Management Marketing Admin From Function Structure A cross-functional team is a group of people with a clear purpose representing a variety of functions or disciplines in the organisation whose combined efforts are necessary for achieving the team s aim. A standard cross functional team is composed of those individuals from departments within the firm whose competencies are essential in achieving an optimal outcome. Product Realisation Resource Management Demand Management Define: (1) purpose, (2) duration, (3) membership 68

69 Why Hierarchy Organizations are High Risk Most organisations are Sigma quality without accuracy controlled methods. 4-Sigma performance is rare Reliability of a sigma work process is: R = 0.7 x 0.7 x 0.7 = Supervisor paralleled to overview a group R = 1 - [( ) x (1-0.7)] = The reliability of the three groups is R = x x = % Manager Hierarchy Structure Supervisor 1 Supervisor 2 Supervisor 3 With the Manager in parallel reliability is R = 1 - [( ) x (1-0.7)] = % Person 1 Person 2 Person 3 Person 1 Person 2 Person 3 Person 1 Person 2 Person 3 Creating 4-Sigma work performance is a business process decision Reliability of ACE 3T Team work process is: R = 0.9 x 0.9 x 0.9 = Supervisor paralleled to overview a group R = 1 - [( ) x (1-0.9)] = The reliability of the three groups is R = x x = With the Manager in parallel reliability is R = 1 - [( ) x (1-0.9)] = Person 1 Manager Supervisor 1 Supervisor 2 Supervisor 3 R S1 Person 2 Person 3 R S1P1 R S1P2 R S1P3 Person 1 R M R S2 Person 2 Person 3 Person 1 R S3 Person 2 Person 3 R S2P1 R S2P2 R S2P3 R S3P1 R S3P2 R S3P3 69

70 Teams Create Parallel Arrangements of People A Job Task 1 Person 1 Help of Person 2 Help of Person 3 Task 2 Person 1 Help of Person 2 Help of Person 3 Task 3 Person 1 Help of Person 2 Help of Person 3 Task 4 Person 1 Help of Person 2 Help of Person 3 Task 5 Person 1 P 11 P 12 P 13 P 14 P 15 Help of Person 2 P 21 P 22 P 23 P 24 P 25 Help of Person 3 P 31 P 32 P 33 P 34 P 35 Outcome If each person is 90% reliable, their individual effort results in a job reliability of 59%. When done as a team of three, the job reliability becomes 99.5% P parallel = 1 - [(1-P 1 ) x (1-P 2 ) x.(1-p n )] In companies that want high quality, high reliability and fewer risks, groups designed with teamwork organisational structure are likely to produce many more favourable results. 70

71 Cross-Functional Teams are High Performers Team Speaker 1 R S1 Person 1 R S1P1 Person 2 R S1P2 Person 3 R S1P3 Manager Team Speaker 2 R S2 R M Person 1 R S2P1 Person 2 R S2P2 Person 3 R S2P3 Teams Structure Team Speaker 3 R S3 Person 1 R S3P1 Person 2 R S3P2 Person 3 R S3P3 Using the same people doing work with 0.7 reliability, the silo structure produced 2.5 sigma quality, while the team structure delivered 4 sigma quality. The manager improved the silo arrangement by 65% and got 86% departmental reliability, but in a team structure they improved departmental performance by only 2% to get 99% departmental reliability. For a team of four people, with each person s reliability at 0.7 R = 1 - [(1-0.7) x (1-0.7) x (1-0.7) x (1-0.7)] = 1 - [(0.008)] = The three groups work in series, R = x x = % When the manager, also at reliability 0.7, the reliability of the structure is: R = 1 - [( ) x (1-0.7)] = 1 - [(0.007)] = (near 4-sigma quality) It seems that most of the reliability benefits of a team reside with the team, and little with the management levels. 71

72 Team-up and bring Knowledge and Skill Together to Stop People Jumping to Wrong Conclusions Parallel-up for Fault Finding Check History Database Discuss with Expert Extra Research Parallel-up for Decision Making Task Activity 1 Decision 1 Task Activity 2 Water Supply Tank Power Supply Suction Piping R 1 R 2 Electric Motor Drive Coupling Bearing Housing R 3 R 4 R 5 R 6 Pump Wet End R 7 Discharge Piping Process Plant R 8 R 9 Parallel-up for Faultless Operation 72

73 Cross-Functional Teams Parallel the Members Skills and Knowledge together to Benefit All Mechanical Engineer Fitter Operator Water Supply Tank Suction Piping Pump Wet End Discharge Piping Process Plant R 1 R 2 R 7 R 8 R 9 Power Supply Electric Motor Drive Coupling Bearing Housing R 3 R 4 R 5 R 6 Operator Operator Electrician Fitter Electrical Engineer Mechanical Engineer 73

74 Promoting Operator Ownership When do you know that you own a thing? When you feel responsibility for its performance When you are competent in its use When the ownership is recognised by others When the support structures in place sustain responsibility 74

75 Operator Monitoring and Watch-keeping Use Operators senses everyday to identify and monitor the relationships between things and for any changed conditions Ouch! 75

76 Operators Learn about their Equipment By physically using human senses to associate readings to conditions Stethoscope Laser Thermometer Touch Thermometer Vibration Pen Boroscope Operators won t learn much about what to do to cause reliability in these places 76

77 1 June 8 June 15 June 22 June 29 June 6 July 13 July 20 July 27 July Operator/Maintainer Watch-keeping Tools 1. Select equipment based on criticality. 2. Determine failure modes and frequency. 3. Specify the 3Ts for the operating conditions. 4. Establish operating condition recording sheets. 5. Specify the frequency of observation. 6. Write ACE 3T SOP to perform the watch-keeping. 7. Specify who to report the problems to. 8. Train people how to check, what to look for, and how to record valuable content. 9. Make the records electronic so they can be trended. 10. Schedule the watch-keeping. o C Laser Thermometer let operators use low cost tools every day to watch-keep the plant and learn its behaviour 77

78 Operator Monitoring and Watch-keeping What can the operator watch-keep on this equipment? Vibration Pen Contact Points Give the Operator Easy and Safe Access to do Watch-keeping VCM = Vibration Condition Monitoring 78

79 Be an Accuracy Controlled Enterprise (ACE) 79

80 Frequency Number The Importance and Value of Setting Targets Good Band Best Band Better Band Target Accuracy Precision Test Best Result Better Result Good Result Tolerance Range Specification Tolerance Range of Outcomes Targets, Tolerances and Tests the 3Ts of masterly work Targets & Tolerances 80

81 Chance of Event Number of People Number of People The Need for Training in Precision Standards Training Moves Ability toward Excellence Area of Elite Skills and Abilities Area of Elite Skills and Abilities Non-existent Mean Exceptional Non-existent Mean Exceptional Quality Standard Old process without Precision Standards The effect of quality control on variation Precision Principle used to meet Quality Standard Outcome 81

82 PEW SOLUTION: Accuracy Controlled Expert Control the quality of each task s outcome with a Target, a Tolerance, and a Proof Test to confirm task achievement these are the 3Ts of defect elimination and failure prevention! No. Accuracy Precision Specification Range of Outcomes A technique for controlling the outcome of human dependent processes is to build feedback and feed forward loops into the process that provide information to continually correct our actions. These are known as the 3T s of failure prevention Target, Tolerance, Test. Precision: having a high degree of exactness A certain thing and no other, strictly correct in amount Accuracy: the degree of agreement between a measured value and the standard value for the measurement Right, truth, correct, close, without error, acceptable deviation 82

83 PEW SOLUTION: Use ACE Quality System to Trap Best Knowledge for All to Use Forevermore Industry Best Practices Expert Knowledge Accuracy Controlled Enterprise (ACE) 3T Quality Management System International Standards New Research 83

84 PEW/PWW Course Content Day 2 PWW Processes Risk Identification Risk Selection Risk Control Planning Risk Control Introduction Risk Monitoring Risk Continual Elimination 84

85 Plant Wellness Process 5 - Risk Monitoring and Measuring Process Step Contribution Map System Equipment Work Identify Reliability Key Performance Indicators for Process Steps Measure Number of Failures, Losses and Locations Maintenance records Operations records Quality System records Safety, Health, Environment records Monitor for Reliability Growth and Improvement 85

86 Process Step Contribution Analysis Inputs Inputs Inputs Inputs 1 $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ 6 3 Raw Materials Losses Contribution $ $ $ Failures, Losses, Waste $ $ $ Failures, Losses, Waste Bottleneck $ $ $ $ $ $ Failures, Losses, Waste Failures, Losses, Waste Profit Contribution continually falls Customer 86

87 Process Step Contribution Modelling Added Input Cost Contributions Up-stream Product Cost Contributions $ $ $ Added Inputs $ $ $ Process Step $ Boundary Line around the Step Waste Contributions $ $ $ Waste Local Value Contribution Step in and out money flows are used to analyse its profitability Raw Material Cost + Added Inputs Cost = Value Contribution + Waste Eq. 1 The value contribution is found from equation: Raw Material Cost + Added Inputs Cost - Waste = Value Contribution Eq. 2 Strangely, from equations 1 and 2, it seems we pay for waste twice, once when we buy it as an input and second when we throw it away as lost value. 87

88 Measure what Is Important in Achieving the Goal Reduce Accidents and Penalties Ensure Regulatory Compliance Increase Workplace Safety Increase Productivity Maximize Resource Availability Create a Proactive Maintenance Strategy Decrease Maintenance Costs Optimize Scheduling and Resource Efficiency Minimize Rework 88

89 Asset Management & Business Performance Reliability Equipment performance data (failure frequencies) System configuration Availability Equipment/System uptime Maintainability Maintenance resources Shift constraints Mob delays Spares constraints Operability Productivity NPV Achieved production Production losses Criticality Contract shortfalls Delayed cargoes Plant interdependencies Plant re-start times Production/demand rates Storage Size Tanker Fleet and Operations Unit Costs/Revenue Product price Man-hour/spares costs Transport costs Discount rates Return on Investment Discounted Total Cashflow Thanks to Dave Finch for the slide 89

90 Hierarchy of Performance Indicators The only value in measuring your performance is to make sure that you are improving. And if not, then to identify the cause of the poor performance and correct it. Example KPI Areas Corporate goals Site goals Department & Individual goals Return on investment Regulatory compliance Revenue generated Shareholder value added Plant availability Plant integrity Product margin Lost time injuries Lagging Indicator Leading Indicator Lagging Indicator Lagging Indicator Lagging Indicator Leading Indicator Lagging Indicator Leading Indicator Failure rates Leading Indicator Ops & maintenance efficiency Lagging Indicator Ops & maintenance effectiveness Lagging Indicator Leading Indicator Safety audits Leading Indicator Work completion/outstanding Thanks to Jim Wardhaugh from the United Kingdom for this concept. 90

91 Adopt the Performance Drivers Equipment Reliability Reliability Centred Maintenance Bad Actor Analysis Root Cause Analysis Risk Based Methodologies Precision Maintenance Lagging Indicator Leading Indicator Leading Indicator Equipment Maintainability Life Cycle Costing Design Standards Plant Modification Procedures DAFT Costing Lagging Indicator Process Reliability Operating Envelopes Corrosion Studies Technical Safety Studies Common System Safety Studies Operating Procedures Leading Indicator Lagging Indicator Leading Indicator Leading Indicator Human Reliability Quality Plan Training ACE 3T Procedures Thanks to Jim Wardhaugh from the United Kingdom for this concept. 91

92 Cascading objectives that tie directly back to the overall business goals EXAMPLE Targets Location Downtime = 30 days per year (82% uptime) Unintended Downtime = 1.8% Poor Performer Comfort Zone Pacesetter Plant Downtime Targets Plant A 2.5%, Plant B 4%, Plant C 4.5%, Plant D 4.2% Plant Reliability Targets (Months without forced stop) Plant A 25, Plant B 17, Plant C 7, Plant D 17 Equipment Reliability Targets Process Reliability Targets Equipment Maintainability Targets Human Reliability Targets Pumps 3 yrs MTBF Compressors 4 yrs MTBF Control valves 8 yrs Risk based inspection introduced All design envelopes are defined All excursions are identified, reported, and implications understood All new pumps purchased will comply with API 682 seal giving 3 years uninterrupted run Operator starts-up pumps Operators isolate LV electric motors Operators zero check instruments Thanks to Jim Wardhaugh from the United Kingdom for this concept. 92

93 Developing KPIs for Business Processes Work Order Planning Process Maintenance Supervision Planner Procurement Unscheduled Work Process Non-urgent work initially thought to be urgent but priority was reassessed Work Identification Process An approved request, a plant modification request or a follow-up from an inspection Inputs Plan to Job Priority Collect data to identify if a process and its steps are working and to spot opportunities for improvement Inputs Outputs Reviews priority and impact of delaying preparation and procurement to decide when to plan job Job Scope-Out Inspects the job & identify tasks and materials required using the task planning sheet Workplace Hazard Identifies any safety requirements such as Hot Work or Confined Space permits Job Plans and Hours Identify work front activities, sequencing, manning and time needed to do the job Job Quality Standards Identifies the engineering standards and precision needed for the required reliability Identify Services and Materials Identifies any requirements for any external resources, hire equipment etc and raises purchase requisitions as required Purchasing and Requisition Checks inventory stocks for any required materials and raises purchase requisitions for any non stock items Procurement and Stores Management Materials, consumables, parts purchased and stored safely and reliably until needed Before After Develop JSA Facilitates the creation of a JSA N Job Safety Management Is a JSA or SWI available or the job? Y INPUTS Conversion Process OUTPUT Technical Details and Specifications Identifies any required technical information and attaches it to the work order Work Pack Compile all documents together and drew all parts and materials together Set Work Status Determine the status of the work order depending on the availability of all requirements to do the job Work Order Scheduling Process The planned work order is available for scheduling into the 4-Week Rolling Schedule Outputs 93

94 300 mm Activity The Cross-Hair Game: Observing Business Process Outcomes Cross-hairs and 10 mm diameter circle How do you hit the bulls-eye every time? 94

95 Performance Required Frequency Cross Hair Manufacturing Process Results Hits inside 10mm Circle 95

96 ± 3 sigma PEW SOLUTION: Measure the Business Process Statistical Stability and Capability Hours Too many Major Failures (Outliers) Week No This is a statistically stable process of breakdown creation this business makes breakdowns as one of its products. 96

97 PEW SOLUTION: Analyse if the Business has a Stable Process of Causing Breakdowns 97

98 PEW/PWW Course Content Day 2 PWW Processes Risk Identification Risk Selection Risk Control Planning Risk Control Introduction Risk Monitoring Risk Continual Elimination 98

99 Plant Wellness Process 6 Continual Improvement Quantify Remaining Risk with DAFT Costing System Equipment Work Identify Suitable Risk Reduction Strategies Chance Reduction Strategy Consequence Reduction Strategy Find New Answers with Push the Limit Strategy Precision and Quality Improvement 5 Whys / Creative Disassembly / Root Cause Failure Analysis Change to Win Program Accuracy Controlled Enterprise Operational Maintenance Design-Out Precision Improvements Apply Best Practices Update Systems and Processes Business-Wide and Train People Monitor for Reliability Growth and Improvement 99

100 Sumitomo Chemicals Failure Management Cycle Failure Occurrence Decision & Review of method and period Prediction of life Preventative maintenance Prevention PM-10 Activity Inspection/measures Inquire cause Every morning meeting Classification Prevent reoccurrence Prevent resemble failure Inquiring cause / investigation of measures Implementation of measures Investigation meeting Inquire cause Necessity of continuous investigation Lateral Development Follow-up Improved maintenance Failure measure implementation rate PM-10 Activity Register tackled theme for reduction Control sheet for daily failure Investigation of measures and follow-up Improved maintenance PM-10 Activity 100

101 Sumitomo Chemicals Failure Prevention Cycle Reduction of Failures Tackle for extermination of recurrence and resemble failures!!! Exterminate the grave!!! Occurrence of grave failure Apply to the failure part Judge and expose the cause of failure Analyse failures Draw up report of failures Why - Why Analysis Implement the functional test Compare/Evaluate difference between Inquire the true cause Clear the cause Implement counter measure for the drag Lateral development inside the plant Draw-up the judgement standard for abnormalities Investigation meeting of grave failure Reflection to Maintenance Plan information Implementation results Implement the lateral development to all plants Issue the order for lateral development Decision of lateral development to all plants 101

102 Idea Creation Feasibility Preliminary Design Approval Detail Design Procurement Construction Commissioning Operation Decommissioning Disposal Effect of System Failures Across Life Cycle Process failures during this phase will cause plant and equipment failures in operation. Equipment Life Cycle (say 20 years) ~ 10% of Life Cycle (~ 2 years) ~ 85% of Life Cycle (~ 17 years) ~ 5% System Chance of Failing Component Chance of Failing 102

103 Case Study 1 A Lifecycle Reliability Growth Cause Analysis (RGCA) Activity Do an RGCA on the assembly Shaft Inner Race Lubricant Roller Ball Lubricant R 1 R 2 R 3 R 4 R 5 103

104 PEW SOLUTION: Reliability Growth Cause Analysis: Creating Operational Reliability by Life Cycle Risk Reduction Failure Description: Failure Cause: Frequency of Cause: Time to Repair: DAFT Cost: Causes of Stress/Overload: Causes of Fatigue/Degradation: Current Risk Matrix Rating: Controls to Prevent Cause: Est. failures prevented after risk controls in use (/yr): New Risk Matrix Rating: DAFT Cost savings from higher reliability: From Physics of Failure Causes List Gauge the effect of the 1) HUMAN FACTORS, 2) BUSINESS PROCESSES, 3) PHYSICAL PROCESSES AFFECTING EQUIPMENT 4) LATENCY FACTORS that cause failures 104

105 Reliability Growth Cause Analysis of a Bearing Failure Description: Cracked inner roller bearing race Failure Cause 1: Failure Cause 2: Excessive interference fit Impact to race Frequency of Cause: Early Life 1 per year Random 3 per year Time to Repair: 5 hours 10 hours DAFT Cost: $20,000 $25,000 Large shaft Abuse when fitting Causes of Stress/Overload: Small bearing race bore Start-up with equipment fully loaded Misaligned shafts Causes of Fatigue/Degradation: Not applicable Loose race moving on shaft Current Risk Matrix Rating: Medium Medium Controls to Prevent Cause: Update all bearing fitting procedures to measure shaft and bore and confirm correct interference fit at operating temperature and train people annually Update all machine procurement contracts include quality check of shaft diameters before acceptance of machine for delivery Update all bearing procurement contracts to include random inspections of tolerances Update all design and drawing standards to include proof-check of shaft measurements and tolerances on drawings suit operating conditions once bearing is selected Update all bearing fitting procedures to include using only approved tools and equipment and train people annually. Purchase necessary equipment, schedule necessary maintenance for equipment Change operating procedures to remove load from equipment prior restart and train people annually (Alternative: Soft start with ramp-up control if capital available) Align shafts to procedure and train people annually Update bearing fitting procedures to measure shaft and bore and confirm correct interference fit at operating temperature and train people annually Est. failures prevented after risk controls in use (/yr): All future failures 80% of future failures New Risk Matrix Rating: Low Low DAFT Cost savings from higher reliability: $20,000 per year $60,000 per year 105

106 PEW SOLUTION: Add Reliability Improvements to Your PM10 Equipment Life Plan Table PM10 (Preventing Maintenance 10 Year Plan) shows the Strategy to Improve Equipment Reliability 106

107 Financial Benefits of Reliable Machines Machine Rate of Failing (Rate of Occurrence of Failure) Old ROCOF New ROCOF Total Cost of Ownership $ Purchase Price Renew machine at Tangents Purchase Price of Replacement Failure curves for parts are not readily changed without redesign. Once a part is in a machine we are stuck with its characteristic performance, i.e. it will behave as its design allows. However, the failure rate of machines is completely malleable depending on the applied maintenance policies, the operating polices and the accuracy of manufacture and assembly of parts. Age of System 107

108 Root Cause Failure Analysis (RCFA) What we see as failure is the end result of failed processes. What We See What Caused It RCFA fundamentals The RCFA process is cause and effect fault-tree based. Developing and implementing solutions uses an expert team. Finding Evidence and Proof Operating and maintenance records and analysis. Creative disassembly of failed item(s). Important to keep accurate records and history of equipment. Applying RCFA in the Workplace Cross-functional team brainstorming. The 5 Whys method is simpler and usable by the workforce. Needs operator and maintainer buy-in for sustained improvement. 108

109 Process to Use During Equipment Failure RCFA Implementation Project Management Failure Evidence and Proof Investigation and Understanding Interviews Protect Equipment/Parts Documents, Records, Diagrams Creative Disassembly of Parts Expert Investigation Analysis and Identification Corrective Action Flowchart Fishbone Diagram Timeline Plots Distribution Histograms Pareto Charts FMEA Understand the physics science key factors progression Evaluation Table Affinity Diagrams Relationship Digraph Brainstorming Brain Writing Is-Is Not Table Why Tree (Fault Tree Analysis) 5/7 Whys (to test Why Tree) 3W2H Understand interactions and the human element 109

110 What Level of RCFA to Apply? What do your business procedures say? Creative Disassembly Individual persons working on-the-job Low cost, little time Preventive focus stops the many small causes that lead to large failures Misses multiple causes Escalate Root Cause and Effect Team of experts in several meetings High cost and time focus on big problems and you keep having big problems Identifies wider perspectives Escalate Catastrophe Analysis Team of experts with detailed FTA, failure investigation and reliability analysis Problem of catastrophic size No stone left unturned; the truth comes out EFFECT OF MODERN SAFETY SAFETY ACCIDENTS INITIATIVES 1 Serious Injuries 1 EQUIPMENT FAILURES Serious Failure 10 Minor Injuries 10 losses Minor Failures 30 Property Damage 6500 repairs Process Losses ww.lifetime-reliability.com Incidents 600 The Heinrich Accident Pyramid 20,000 defects The Failure Pyramid Procedural Incidents Source: Winston Ledet, Manufacturing Game 110

111 The Cause-Effect Event Tree Stages Incident Scientific Failure Reason Why Operational Failure Reason Business Process Failure Reason Human Latency Reason Why Why Why Why Why Why What Latency Issues Remain??? 111

112 What Chance have You to Find the Real Cause? Pump Fails Motor Drive Coupling What Route did Failure take in the Pump Set? An Internet search by the Author for causes of centrifugal pump-set failures found 228 separate ways for the wet-end components to fail, 189 ways for a mechanical seal to fail, 33 ways for the shaft drive coupling to fail and 103 ways for the electric motor to fail. This totals 553 ways for one common item of plant to fail. Wet End 33 Mech Seal

113 At Least Identify the Scientific Cause Sequence Foundation Failed Stop Roof Material Failed Stop Roof Fell Column Material Failed Stop Scientific Event Sequence Columns Tumble Column to Ground Connection Fails Columns Tilt Roof Moves Trailer Hits Roof 113

114 How Precision Links to Asset Management Asset Management: systematic and coordinated activities and practices through which an organization optimally manages its assets and asset systems, their associated performance, risks and expenditure over their life cycles for the purpose of achieving its organizational strategic plan Source: ISO Asset Management It s what the people do and how well they do it that makes for successful asset management! It needs you to design and build a system-of-success to deliver the right activities and practices, done at the right time, in the right way, to the right quality. 114

115 Precision Maintenance Prevents Failures Lack of Lubricant Spalling Loaded in Wrong Direction False Brinelling Electrical Fluting Fretting Corrosion Overheating Uneven Wear Smearing Each failure may have one or more dominant modes and we need to find those modes and model them for each part. The failure curves must represent the situation being investigated if we are to develop the correct answers. 115

116 Target OEM Tolerance Know How to Read Machine Health Scales e.g. Lubrication Solids ISO Contamination Count 12/9/7 14/13/11 18/16/13 23/22/20 IT4 e.g. Roller Bearing IT Fits and Tolerance Accuracy IT5 IT6 IT7 IT8 PASS / ACCEPT FAIL / REJECT BEST BETTER GOOD Perfect Result World Class Target Tolerance Limit Certain Failure 116

117 Precision Maintenance Strategy and Methods Stop these Problems Destroying Reliability Electric motor drive end bearing 117

118 PEW SOLUTION: Precision Maintenance of Plant, Equipment and Machinery is 1. Accurate Fits and Tolerance at Operating Temperature 2. Impeccably Clean, Contaminant-Free Lubricant Life-long 3. Distortion-Free Equipment for its Entire Life 4. Shafts, Bearings, Couplings running true to Centre 5. Forces and Loads into Rigid Mounts and Supports 6. Laser Accurate Alignment of Shafts at Operating Temperature 7. High Quality Balancing of Rotating Parts 8. Low Total Machine Vibration 9. Correct Torques and Tensions in all Components 10. Correct Tools in the Condition to do the Task Precisely 11. Only In-specification Parts 12. Failure Cause Removal to Increase Reliability 13. Proof that Precision is Achieved 14. A system to make all the above happen Number 14 is the one that the vast majority of companies miss. They don t systemize and standardize the delivery of precision to their machinery. Based on data from petrochemical industry survey, precision alignment practices achieve: Average bearing life increases by a factor of 8.0. Maintenance costs decrease by 7%. Machinery availability increases by 12%. Source: - RELIABILITY CENTERED MAINTENANCE GUIDE FOR FACILITIES AND COLLATERAL EQUIPMENT - NASA 118

119 Precision is a Serious Opportunity mm/s mm/s Machine Vibration to Maintenance Cost Machine Type Highest Velocity mm/s Dollars Spent Last Year Lowest Velocity mm/s Dollars Spent Last Year Single Stage Pumps 5.6 $3, $650 Multi Stage Pumps 4.8 $6, $1,100 Major Fans & Blowers 9.0 $ Single Stage Turbines 3.8 $8, $2,000 Other Machines 7.8 $11, $3,

120 Precision Domain - A Powerful Business Case 50 Typical Maintenance Cost $/kw/year Source: Update International Inc 0 Breakdown Maintenance Preventive Condition Based Precision Maintenance Maintenance Maintenance For those who do understand the practical, easy-to-implement procedures, they already know that the main results from precision maintenance and machinery improvement are: Improved machines mean that we can maintain more machines with less people (less nonscheduled - less putting out fires - less wrong answers) Precision maintenance allows all involved, including managers, to have more time to think, to plan and to do it right the first time Precision maintenance not only saves money, but at the same time enables more production output as the machines considerably increase Typical their run Maintenance time before Cost failure. $/kw/year Ralph Buscarello, Update-International, Inc., Considerations for the Human Aspects to Accomplish or Prevent True Maintenance-Related Machinery Improvement 120

121 Conditional Probability of Failure Precision Maintenance and Condition Based Maintenance together effectively reduces failure Can be dramatically reduced??? Life Extension Zone Failure Elimination Zone CBM alone Reduced Infant Mortality Risk Reduced Frequency of Failure CBM PLUS Precision Skills Time Thanks to Peter Brown from Industrial Training Associates in Australia for this concept. 121

122 Condition Monitor to Confirm Work Standard Condition Monitoring Strategy Strategies for Reliability Improvement Specification Review. Root Cause Analysis. Creative Disassembly. Precision Maintenance and Alignment. Lubrication Management Operator training in CM and basic maintenance routines The Machine four essentials for reliability DESIGN Suitability for purpose. Suitability for environment ASSEMBLY Machine Assembly Machine mounting Shaft alignment LUBRICATION Suitability and adequacy Cleanliness Sealing OPERATION Proper sequencing and operation Cleaning Condition Monitoring Methods Performance tests Performance KPI s Vibration Analysis Thermography Oil Analysis Wear Debris Analysis Visual Observations Process control information Q U A L I T Y C O N T R O L Numerous methods available at all stages of the life cycle 122

123 PEW SOLUTION: Set and Meet Quality Standards for World Class Reliability Source: Wayne Bissett, OneSteel Reliability Manager, Planning and Condition Management Presentation, Sydney, Australia, 2008 Precise Smooth Tight Dry Clean Cool Repeatable Only world class standards can produce world class results. 123

124 Performance Idea Creation Feasibility Preliminary Design Approval Detail Design Procurement Construction Commission Operation Decommission Disposal PWW Proactively Controls Equipment Health for Outstanding Equipment Reliability Equipment Life Cycle (say 25 years) ~ 10% of Life Cycle (~ 2 years) ~ 85% of Life Cycle (~ 22 years) ~ 5% Design to Standard Cost to Design for Standard Standard Select to Standard Plant Wellness Way Health Mon (Feed Forward Control) Install to Standard Inspect for Standard Act for Health Act for Health Act for Health Act for Health Act for Health Act for Health Act for Health Act for Health Assume Spec Assume Spec Set Spec Select to Spec Inspect for on- Spec Inspect for on- Spec Inspect for Failure Inspect for Failure Inspect for Failure Inspect for Failure Inspect for Failure Inspect for Failure Inspect for Failure Inspect for Failure Usual Con Mon Practice (Feedback Control) 124

125 Elements of Plant Wellness Asset Management Planning and Scheduling for Reliability Precision Work Quality Management Defect Elimination Equipment Strategies Supply Chain and Inventory Quality Management Continual Reliability Improvement Useful Performance Measures Precision Maintenance Precision Operation Business- Wide Asset Management Stewardship Optimized Asset Life Cycle Utilization Life Cycle Capital Management 125

126 Plant and Equipment Wellness = Chance Reduction + Proactive Maintenance + Defect Elimination + Precision Systems + Process Step Value Contribution 126