Logistics Indicator Results for 2006-Q4 to 2014-Q4

Transcription

1 Results for 2006-Q4 to Prof. Dr. Stefan Kooths, Forecasting Center See methodology on slide 12.

2 180 Composite Indicator Index normal level Climate Situation Expectations Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q4 2

3 Business trend Percent of all respondents 100% 80% 60% 40% Net improvement 100% 90% 80% 70% improving unchanged worsening 20% 60% 0% 50% -20% 40% -40% 30% -60% 20% -80% 10% -100% Logistics Service Providers Industry and Trade 0% Logistics Service Providers Industry and Trade 3 Expected trend in upcoming 3 months

4 180 Logistics Service Providers Index normal level Climate Situation Expectations Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q4 4

5 Logistics Service Providers: Situation Balances (positive minus negative) as percent of total answers; assessment of current quarter 2014-Q Q Q1 low Capacity utilization high poor Orders position (total) good decreased New orders (cross-border) increased decreased New orders (domestic) increased poor Business situation good -100% -50% 0% 50% 100% 5

6 Logistics Service Providers: Expectations Balances (positive minus negative) as percent of total answers; horizon: 12 months 2014-Q Q Q1 down Capital stock up down Manpower up poorer Orders position better worsening Business trend improving -100% -50% 0% 50% 100% 6

7 180 Logistics Activity in Industry and Trade Index normal level Climate Situation Expectations Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q4 7

8 Industry and Trade: Situation Balances (positive minus negative) as percent of total answers; assessment of current quarter 2014-Q Q Q1 ample Available capacity tight low Capacity utilization high decreased Relative price trend increased low Demand high -100% -50% 0% 50% 100% 8

9 Industry and Trade: Expectations Balances (positive minus negative) as percent of total answers; 12-months horizon 2014-Q Q Q1 down Capital stock up down Manpower up lower Demand (cross-border) higher lower Demand (domestic) higher worsening Business trend improving insourcing Sourcing outsourcing -100% -50% 0% 50% 100% 9

10 80 70 Opportunities 2015 Share of respondents (double answers allowed) Logistics Service Providers Industry and Trade digitization/ industry 4.0 vertical cooperation cost cuts in procurement new export markets online trade other 10 What are the fields that offer the most promising opportunities (in terms of logistics activities) to increase revenues or lower costs?

11 80 70 Risks 2015 Share of respondents (double answers allowed) Logistics Service Providers Industry and Trade euro crisis payroll cost geopolitical crises transport infrastructure digital infrastructure other 11 What are the factors that represent the most important risks for logistics activities?

12 Methodology The quarterly is computed by the Kiel Institute for the World Economy on behalf of the German Logistics Association (BVL). It reflects the current business situation as well as the expectations over the next 12 months of Germany's logistics service providers and customers of logistical services in industry and trade. Each quarter, a panel of 200 decision makers is polled (100 managers of the most important logistics service providers and 100 top executives of industrial customers of logistical services). Polling takes place in the first half of the mid-quarter month. The design of the questionnaire targets the cyclical assessment of all logistics-related activities in the Federal Republic of Germany. All questions on quarterly developments refer to seasonally adjusted values. 12 For all questions, three alternative answers apply: positive/expansionary, normal/neutral, and negative/contractionary. In a first step, the polled answers are balanced by subtracting the negative answers from the positive ones. The results are then related to the number of all answers for each question (the resulting percentage values are published separately, see slides 4, 5, 7, and 8). Next, for each market side and each indicator category (current situation and 12-months expectations) all relative balances are averaged and scaled to a span reaching form 0 (implying that 100 % of all answers are negative) to 200 (only positive answers). A value of 100 (normal level) indicates that positive and negative answers are equally represented. By further averaging the situation and expectations components the climate indicator for each market side results. Finally, the composite logistics indicator represents the equally weighted mean of the corresponding specific market side values.