Brexit in detail. Stora Skattedagen Stockholm, 9:e november, 2017

Transcription

1 Brexit in detail Stora Skattedagen Stockholm, 9:e november, 2017

2 Agenda Introduction The impact on business Optimising your position Wrap up and questions 2

3 Brexit: Changing priorities In 2016, we thought the Brexit discussions would focus on: The Customs Union In or Out Single market and regulatory constraints Availability of Directives End of Free Movement of People How to spend the Brexit windfall? Working together to secure the best Brexit deal But in 2017, what we are actually discussing is: The Customs Union In or Out A new union? Single market and regulatory constraints and restrictions on negotiating new trading arrangements Availability of Directives End of Free Movement of People Managed migration and visa-free travel How to spend the Brexit windfall? fund the exit bill? Working together Potential Parliamentary defeat to secure the best Brexit deal Is no deal really so bad? What should the transition period look like? What about Euratom? Do we need the ECJ? 3

4 Scenarios The timeline Invoke Article 50 Point of no return on divorce talks Effective deadline for political solution Drop dead Brexit deadline The process Mar 17 Sept 17 Mar 18 Sept 18 Mar 19 Withdrawal New deal Ratification The (potential) outcome Yes Withdrawal talks. Sufficient progress? No Bespoke deal Political uncertainty Cliff edge 4

5 Brexit: the impact for Sweden (1) Wide ranging impacts: - Trade with UK - volume - Trade with the UK - increased cost and administration - Impact on Eurozone/non-Eurozone power balance - Loss of R&D funding, and a like-minded R&D partner - Swedish expats in the UK (>33,000 per 2010 ONS report) Swedish exports to the UK: Goods: SEK 72B (6th largest market) Services: SEK 51B (3rd largest market) Swedish imports from the UK: Goods: SEK 62B Services: SEK 62B (Based on 2016 data) Key Export Sectors: Manufacturing, including machinery Automotive Minerals, including oil Pharmaceuticals Fishing 5

6 Brexit: the impact for Sweden (2) Sector For example: Key Brexit issues Retail Manufacturing and Automotive IKEA H&M Atlas Copco Electrolux Volvo Ericsson Currency fluctuations Inbound customs duties Supply chain risk Workforce availability Inbound and outbound customs duties SLA (service level agreements) risks Global mobility Transport Stena Gridlock at ferry ports Overstretched infrastructure Supply chain disruption Pharma AstraZeneca Regulatory impacts Cold chain Data protection R&D collaboration Technology Skype Spotify King Access to international workforce and talent 6

7 The business impact Ability to trade Efficiency of trade Regulatory Investments Customs & Logistics People Financial Services - Passporting Corporate structure Increase in duties and/or administration Availability of workforce Other regulated sectors M&A environment Lead times Manufacturing footprint Global mobility 7

8 KPMG Brexit Navigator 8

9 KPMG Indirect Tax Assessor Tool 9

10 Keeping up to date KPMG.com Our Managing Brexit homepage Expert opinion, thought leadership, Brexit tools and more Social media Follow us on Twitter and Linked In Receive invites to KPMG Brexit themed events and webinars The Brexit Navigator Our two year roadmap Helps you to plot out your key milestones The Brexit Column A fresh perspective on Brexit Click to subscribe to our weekly thought leadership column 10

11 Brexit: Five key take aways Keep informed especially as the Brexit landscape is fluid Understand the pressure points for your business Quantify the exposure to help you prioritise Work on your contingency plan(s) Identify your cut-off point: how long can you wait it out?

12 Thank you! Tim Sarson

13 kpmg.com/socialmedia The information contained herein is of a general nature and is not intended to address the circumstances of any particular individual or entity. Although we endeavor to provide accurate and timely information, there can be no guarantee that such information is accurate as of the date it is received or that it will continue to be accurate in the future. No one should act on such information without appropriate professional advice after a thorough examination of the particular situation KPMG AB, a Swedish limited liability company and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative ( KPMG International ), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. The KPMG name and logo are registered trademarks or trademarks of KPMG International. Document Classification: KPMG Public